The fantasy playoffs are finished and the dynasty ‘season’ officially begins. Owners anticipate the trading period for 2014 opening up as well as the microscope turning to NFL draft season. This is where the rubber meets the road for dynasty owners: selling high and buying low on the veterans in anticipation of their value 6-12 months from now and analyzing the incoming rookie crop of talent. It is early in the draft process, heck the full list of declared prospects will not be complete until mid-January, but it is never too early to break down the contract situations and where a team might go with their skill position picks five months from now. For each team, the notable contract situations are listed as well as a target player based on their depth chart and team needs.
Arizona
Rashard Mendenhall is set to be a free agent in the offseason and even if he is resigned to a small deal, he remains a ho-hum patch job at running back. Andre Ellington projects as a secondary option size-wise until he shows otherwise. With Ellington more than capable in the passing game, a rugged between-the-tackles option helped them the most. Andre Williams of Boston College fits the bill as he gained 80% of the rushing yards for his team in 2013 and his lack of use in the passing game is not a concern for his likely role early in his NFL career.
Atlanta
Tony Gonzalez cannot play forever. There, I said it. Also, Levine Toilolo is a trendy stash for dynasty owners as the young option on the depth chart behind him, but remains a raw late-round pick that historical does not equate to long-lasting starter often. The 2014 draft class projects with plenty of future starters at tight end and Atlanta grabs Austin Seferian-Jenkins in the second round. ASJ, as he is referred to on message boards, has seen his stock cool from the heights of being an automatic first rounder and his motor issues from snap to snap would benefit greatly from a potential red-shirt season behind Gonzalez.
Baltimore
Dennis Pitta could be gone in free agency, but the glaring hole (sorry Marlon Brown fans) has been opposite Torrey Smith at wide receiver. While I like Smith quite a bit, his ceiling is likely as a secondary target and deep threat. There are quite a few options in the upcoming class for physical possession receivers and Jordan Matthews gets the call to fit the profile for a Baltimore selection. Matthews is not going to pop off the charts at the combine or wow with overt athleticism, but his dependability in the short and mid-range game will immediately mesh with Torrey Smith on the opposite side.
Buffalo
Scott Chandler is set for free agency and while he had a run of some fantasy relevance out of sheer volume and red zone work, he was never an exciting option. Buffalo has revamped their collection of skill position players of late and the last piece, if the receivers progress this offseason, is a difference-making tight end. Eric Ebron gets the call as the best pure athlete and a player that can elevate to first or second in a passing game pecking order quickly. Marquise Goodwin and Robert Woods are fine receivers, Steve Johnson as well, but all would be best suited as secondary targets in a well-oiled NFL passing game. A move tight end like Ebron finishes the entrée with his ability to beat single coverage between the hash marks.
Carolina
DeAndre Hopkins was the common pick for Carolina last season in mock drafts. Steve Smith will be 35 years old and the Ted Ginn Jr-Brandon Lafell combination behind Smith is passable in the short-term, but requires attention sooner rather than later. It has been ages since Carolina had a legitimate red zone option at receiver and the complement to Greg Olsen and the running game inside the 10-yard-line would be a massive matchup advantage. Quincy Enunwa out of Nebraska is an under-the-radar name at this point in the draft process that Carolina can target late in round two. Enunwa collected almost half of Nebraska’s receiving touchdowns per game in 2013 and his physicality pops off the screen. Likely to measure in at 6’2” or taller at 220 or more pounds, Enunwa fits the mold of what can take this offense to the next level perfectly.
Chicago
At the skill positions, Chicago is largely set with Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery, Martellus Bennett, and Matt Forte all under contract next season. That said, Marshall is set to be on the market in 2015 and both of their quarterbacks, Jay Cutler and Josh McCown, are 2014 free agents, neither of which is a lock to return to the windy city. Outside of going for a splurge selection at receiver, a second or third round pick at quarterback to groom would make the most sense. A.J. McCarron and Zach Mettenberger slot into the range of late first to late second round for Marc Trestman to groom his next star until center.
Cincinnati
Jermaine Gresham is likely gone (with Tyler Eifert ready to be unleashed) at tight end, the running backs are set, and Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu are a passable committee behind A.J. Green on the wide receiver depth chart. What’s missing? A consistent quarterback. Andy Dalton enters his the final year of his contract. He has played well at times, but also has a limiting element to this potentially lethal offense. Cincinnati nabs Aaron Murray in the third-fourth round range with the ability to recover from 2013 knee surgery behind Andy Dalton in 2014.
Cleveland
Running back and quarterback, quarterback and running back, the Browns offense feels like a white room with padded walls. Josh Gordon and Jordan Cameron dominate the other two skill positions with an upside few in the league can match. Brian Hoyer is the most ‘exciting’ option at quarterback from the limited time we saw from him in 2013 and he has a year remaining on his contract. Brandon Weeden and Jason Campbell could be in the running for a singular backup spot with Campbell be the preferred veteran option that can start a few games and keep a competitive team afloat in-season. They traded away Trent Richardson and may be the most-likely team in the league to go super cheap at running back as a general stance. With two first round picks, quarterback will be simple to address with the ammo to trade up for almost anyone they target (outside of Teddy Bridgewater). A running back can be a later round pick or late-season riser Edwin Baker could even be the week one starter. The Browns nab Derek Carr in the top-10 and he becomes a second round rookie pick for dynasty leaguers.
Dallas
While Dallas may be one of the few teams without a skill position player drafted in the first four rounds of the NFL draft, wide receiver may be in the mix in the middle rounds. Miles Austin is a near-lock to not be on the roster in 2014 and past Dez Bryant and Terrance Williams, there is little depth. Like Austin years ago and Laurent Robinson more recently, the third receiver can rise to fantasy prominence any given season. With a fourth round pick, Dallas selects L’Damian Washington out of Missouri. His combination of size and athleticism will intoxicate Jerry Jones as he envisions an unstoppable offense that makes Denver’s attack in 2013 jealous. Whether that’s the egg nog talking is another article for another time. Washington comes in the mold of A.J. Green without the refinement or natural receiving skills that is the difference of 100 slots in the draft. Washington has little pressure to see the field as a rookie and, potentially being paired with Dez Bryant in a year or two, becomes a hot riser for dynasty drafts from May until August.
Denver
The Broncos have few skill position needs, but Eric Decker is a soon-to-be free agent and Wes Welker is a short-term option as well. A receiver drafted in the first three or four rounds, like Dallas, would vault up the rookie rankings with situational upside. Denver collects an Eric Decker replacement with Alex Neutz out of Buffalo in the mid-rounds this Aprile. Neutz has passable athleticism for his size, but dominated the receiving touchdowns in 2013 for his team and projects as a solid secondary option in the NFL not shy in the red zone.
Detroit
Nate Burleson looks like a shell of himself since returning to the lineup, Kris Durham has soaked up plenty of inefficient snaps as a de facto outside receiver this season, and Ryan Broyles has joined the Ryan Williams-Greg Childs ‘what if’ group of talented, but oft-injured skill position players in recent years. Detroit needs a secondary option to Calvin Johnson. Reggie and Joique Bell work well as receivers out of the backfield, but they need a receiver or tight end as well. Brandon Pettigrew is likely gone and Joseph Fauria has performed well in limited duty as a rookie auditioning for a larger role in 2014. Will Fauria be handed a full complement of snaps? I am not certain on that despite my affliction for him as an underrated fantasy asset. Between the two, a receiver would help this offense more in the immediate future, Detroit gets Ty Montgomery from Stanford in the third round. Montgomery checks all the boxes as a receiver prospect and will be lethal at the NFL level opposite a legit stud like Calvin Johnson. Montgomery is an under-the-radar name at this point in the process, but will rise as he tested well and emerges into a late-second or third-round selection come April.
Green Bay
Jermichael Finley and Andrew Quarless are set to enter free agency. Brandon Bostick is a trendy stash for dynasty leaguers entering the offseason, but he may get some worthy competition. The Packers land Jace Amaro, Texas Tech, in the late first round. Amaro’s 2013 season was one of the most productive in college history for a tight end and will see soften the losses of Finley, Quarless, and James Jones as Green Bay reloads their weapons.
Houston
The low-hanging fruit for this exercise is the quarterback position. Matt Schaub is due around $50 million over the next three seasons and Case Keenum has just one year left on an affordable contract. Neither has been overly impressive this season and with the first overall pick all but locked up with one game to go, Teddy Bridgewater is written in very dark pencil for the Texans come late April. Ben Tate is a free agent, so Houston’s next backup back behind Arian Foster is an intriguing name to track, but a top pick in the draft seems unlikely. At receiver, Andre Johnson still has three years left on his contract as a life-long franchise player, DeAndre Hopkins is coming off a solid rookie season, and DeVier Posey is a quality third receiver when healthy and has two years left on his rookie deal. Tight end still has Owen Daniels and Ryan Griffin under contract next season. All of these weapons get a bump with Bridgewater and the offense rebounding from a forgettable 2013 season that earning a high first round pick.
Indianapolis
It is tough to see the Colts spending a high pick on tight end or running back with the recent Trent Richardson trade and Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen all young and under contract for 2014. Wide receiver is the obvious choice here with Reggie Wayne in his mid-30s and returning from an ACL injury. Da’Rick Rogers is an intriguing player to track in the offseason (can he stay out of trouble? Will the Colts view him as a starting outside receiver?) and T.Y. Hilton projects as a third receiver more than a high-snap player on all downs. The Colts land Jarvis Landry, LSU, in the second round. Landry ran circles around teammate Odell Beckham, Jr. in 2013 in terms of touchdowns and Landry can make the ultimate transition from the Reggie Wayne era seamless by 2015.
Jacksonville
The Jaguars have holes all over the offense. Marcedes Lewis is an underwhelming, expensive option at tight end, Justin Blackmon’s offseason concerns and Cecil Shorts’ concussion battle leave questions at receiver, and long-time centerpiece Maurice Jones-Drew is set to enter free agency this offseason. Despite all that, Jacksonville has not had stability at quarterback since Mark Brunell’s run in the late 1990s. Jacksonville nabs Derek Carr from Fresno State in the top-10 to cleanse the pallet of Blaine Gabbert (one year left on his contract) and stopgap Chad Henne, who is a free agent.
Kansas City
Donnie Avery, A.J. Jenkins, and Junior Hemingway form a trio of targets behind Dwayne Bowe that give low odds of finding a long-term starting receiver. Tight end is also a consideration here with Anthony Fasano an uninspired option and Travis Kelce a question mark returning from injury. Andy Reid is not shy about the undersized receiver type from his days in Philadelphia and Kansas City takes Baylor big-play burner Tevin Reese in the fourth round. Reese was efficient in 2013, explosive, and adds special teams value out of the gate. Like many of the Baylor athletes, Reese is projected to have impressive combine times come February.
Miami
No glaring skill position holes here. The offensive line would help the entire unit, including the noteworthy development of second-year quarterback Ryan Tannehill. With 2014 the final year of Daniel Thomas’ contract, Miami bolsters the running back position behind Lamar Miller with Stanford workhorse Tyler Gaffney in the fourth round. His ability to move the chains through contact complements Lamar Miller’s big-play ability well and his mid-round price tag allows for offensive line reinforcements as well.
Minnesota
Another team with a gaping hole at the quarterback position to fill. Adrian Peterson, Greg Jennings, Cordarrelle Patterson, and Kyle Rudolph are one of the better quartets of weapons to aid a young signal-caller early in their development. The Vikings have a locked-and-loaded top-eight draft slot and take riser Blake Bortles from Central Florida.
New England
The Patriots do not have a glaring hole at the skill positions, but the wide receiver position is far from settled. Danny Amendola continued his in-and-out of the lineup nature in his first year with New England, Julian Edelman is set for free agency, and rookies Aaron Dobson and Kenbrell Thompkins were hit-and-miss. While Dobson has the potential to be a starting outside receiver and Josh Boyce is intriguing on the inside, Thompkins may not be a sustaining weapon. Another mid-round pick at the position would give them another shot at hitting on a solution, but tight end is also in the running. Rob Gronkowski may not be ready for week one, like 2013, recovering from an ACL, and the loss of Aaron Hernandez was a shift-change for the passing game from 2012. Looking for an all-over-the-field weapon, the Patriots target Brandin Cooks in the second round. Cooks is one of the youngest receivers in this year’s class (will be under 21 years old for the week one kickoff) and provides that moveable chess piece element that Aaron Hernandez provided in previous seasons.
New Orleans
Darren Sproles, Mark Ingram, and Pierre Thomas all have one year remaining on their current contracts. Kenny Stills, Lance Moore, and Marques Colston both have multiple years left on their deals. Robert Meachem hits the open market, Nick Toon has multiple seasons left and Joseph Morgan (remember him?) will be a restricted free agent. Jimmy Graham is set to be a free agent this offseason, so expect the Saints to back up the Brinks truck for him to stick around. Josh Hill has multiple years left as a young athletic tight end and Ben Watson will also be back as of now with an affordable deal already in place. The Saints have no glaring hole, so it is a long-shot to think they take an early swing at a skill position player. There could be quite the turnover among these positions in the next year or two for the Saints, a sneaky name or two to watch in the middle rounds would be Jared Abbrederis, wide receiver from Wisconsin, in the second or third round, or a big-bodied receiver like Brandon Coleman falling into the fourth or fifth round.
New York Giants
Andre Brown, Peyton Hillis, and Brandon Jacobs are all scheduled to hit the free agent marketplace. Hakeem Nicks is likely gone, Brandon Myers has an option in his deal, and Louis Murphy is also finishing out his current contract. Rueben Randle looks to elevate to the second receiver alongside Victor Cruz and Jerrel Jernigan has one more season to build upon his late-season production this year. David Wilson is a wild-card with his neck injury and Adrien Robinson could be a factor in the tight end depth chart if he can string together a healthy stretch. Tight end looks like the most likely target at the skill positions, especially to hedge against Robinson if the offseason development is not there. The Giants select Marcel Jensen, tight end out of Fresno State, in the third round.
New York Jets
Santonio Holmes is a likely cut, due $20 million of the next two seasons, and the tight end duo of Jeff Cumberland and Kellen Winslow are both in line to be free agents this offseason. Both wide receiver (Stephen Hill, Jeremy Kerley) and tight end are need areas. With most of the notable tight ends already earmarked to other teams, the Jets go with Sammy Watkins, wide receiver, Clemson in the first round. Watkins is one of the youngest draft-eligible receivers and his upside is well worth a top-15 selection come late April.
Oakland
The Raiders are another team with multiple positions of need at the skill positions. Latavius Murray is an intriguing possibility as the starting running back after an injury redshirt in his rookie season. The entire wide receiver group is young, inexpensive, with upside to what they have shown to-date. Mychal Rivera is not a game-breaker at tight end, but showed enough to warrant a role in a future season or two in addition to David Ausberry ideally being back in the mix. That leaves the quarterback position where Terrelle Pryor and Matt McGloin combined for a very uneven 2013 season. Either could be the week one starter next year, but they add Tajh Boyd, who has sagged this past season after being a favorite to be a top-10 pick a year ago, in the middle rounds to give them three shots to find an eventual starter.
Philadelphia
Jeremy Maclin is a free agent and veteran Jason Avant will be in the final year of his contract in 2014. The biggest need among the skill positions is wide receiver. With Philadelphia’s depth at running back and tight end, they opt for a noteworthy receiver in DaVante Adams in round one. Adams has 122 receptions leading up to Fresno State’s bowl game and leads the nation in receptions, touchdowns (23), and games of double-digit receptions (six). Adams is a perfect fit as the third receiver behind Riley Cooper initially and growing into a starter by 2015.
Pittsburgh
Emmanuel Sanders is a free agent and Markus Wheaton was a limited participant as a rookie this season. Ever since Plaxico Burress, Pittsburgh has lacked the big-bodied presence as an outside receiver. They target Matt Miller, wide receiver, Boise State in the fifth round. Miller caught nearly half of Boise State’s touchdowns in 2013 and showed a good clip of red zone production his final college season.
San Diego
Ryan Mathews and Danny Woodhead each have one year left on their contracts. Keenan Allen’s instant impact and Ladarius Green flashing this season gives an infusion of youth at receiver and tight end. The Chargers go to the wide receiver well as the cupboard is not very stocked past Allen on the depth chart with Sammie Coates, Auburn wide receiver, in round three. Coates has raw elements to his game, but his athleticism was evident while collecting more than 40% of Auburn’s passing yards and touchdowns this season as a red-shirt sophomore.
San Francisco
Mario Manningham is a free agent, Jonathan Baldwin has done little since being a raw first round pick by Kansas City a few years ago and especially since being traded to San Francisco, and Anquan Boldin is also set to hit the free agent market. Quinton Patton was basically a red-shirt in his rookie season, so he remains a wild card in the depth chart. Michael Crabtree is also coming up on the end of his contract in 2015. The 49ers take Kelvin Benjamin, wide receiver, Florida State in the first round. Benjamin is older than most of the draft-eligible receivers (will be over 23 and a half when the season kicks off). At 6’5” and likely over 225 pounds, anything in the 4.50s in the 40 will be a good enough time to get him into the late first round.
Seattle
Like the tough family member to shop for, what do you get the team that has everything? Like Christine Michael’s selection in the second round last season, Seattle has the luxury to mine extreme value with a best-player approach in most rounds of the draft. Golden Tate is a free agent this offseason and Jermaine Kearse will be on the market in 2015. With the slow recovery of Percy Harvin added to the mix at receiver, Seattle takes advantage of the deep projected class with two selections at the position this year: Antwan Goodley, Baylor, in the third round, and Devante Davis, UNLV, in the fifth round. Goodley is a running back-sized option that is in the top-100 mix with his expected strong showing at the combine. Davis profiles are more of an outside receiver that dominated his team’s production in 2013 including half UNLV’s receiving touchdowns on a per game basis, one of the highest marks among draft-eligible receivers in this year’s class.
St.Louis
The Rams have no glaring holes throughout the skill positions and with two first round picks come April (including a high first from Washington in the Robert Griffin III III trade), they are a team to track for best player available. Zac Stacy has been a late-round surprise as a rookie, but reinforcements could be on the way in the early rounds. Despite investing a top-10 pick in Tavon Austin and an early second round pick in Brian Quick in the past two drafts, the Rams receiver corps is far from settled. Add Chris Givens’ sophomore slump and Stedman Bailey getting more run late this season and it is a crockpot of uncertainty from a fantasy perspective. Jared Cook is just one year into a pricey free agent deal that he is unlikely to live up to at the mid-point of his career. In the late first round, the Rame go wide receiver yet again with all-around talent Allen Robinson. Robinson has dominated Penn State’s receiving yardage and touchdowns in successive seasons. While Brian Quick may develop into a quality starting receiver in year three, Robinson projects as a difference-maker by season two at the latest.
Tampa Bay
Mike Glennon has been solid under center and Mike Williams is set to return in 2014 after missing time with injury this year to complement Vincent Jackson at wide receiver. Mike James and Bobby Rainey playing well in the absence of Doug Martin bolsters a strong running back group. Tim Wright, a quasi-converted receiver, manned the de-facto tight end role this season from the slot. He has two more years under contract. Tom Crabtree and Luke Stocker are uninspiring options down the depth chart for 2014. Tampa Bay brings in reinforcements with underrated two-way tight end C.J. Fiedorowicz, Iowa, in the third round.
Tennessee
The Titans miss out on a top quarterback in the first round and the running back and tight end positions are set for 2014 with veterans. Kenny Britt is a free agent and Kendall Wright and Justin Hunter complement each other with short-and-long game prowess. Tennessee adds Ryan Grant, a polished intermediate target with good hands, from Tulane in the third-to-fourth round range as the replacement for Nate Washington by 2015.
Washington
With a first round pick, Washington has a lot of holes to fill and a lack of top-end resources (other than getting their salary cap room back) in which to stock their roster. Alfred Morris and Roy Helu are both under contract for cheap in 2014 and Jordan Reed (when/if concussion symptoms clear) was a mid-round hit as a rookie in 2013. The wide receiver position needs attention with Pierre Garcon the lone productive player. Leonard Hankerson’s time is coming to a close (one more year on his contract) after being a second round pick years ago. Josh Morgan and Santana Moss are set to hit the free agent market. Washington needs a red zone threat at receiver and one that can win on the outside. They nab Cody Latimer, Indiana, in the fourth round. Latimer has prototypical size, will begin the 2014 season at 21 years old, and has enough upside to for Washington to stash in addition to a likely free agent signing at the position.
