Daily Fantasy Football is back for 2016 and FanDuel offers a variety of cash and tournament contests. Projecting player ownership to build lineups is an integral strategy to long-term success. Here are the key players for Week 3:
THE CHALK PLAYS
Drew Brees, $9,000: The Saints are the top projected Vegas team total of the week at more than 28 points. The Saints at home are a different team than their documented struggles to produce on the road. At home against Atlanta this week offers a 'get well' game after their performance at the Giants a week ago. The Falcons are at the bottom of the league in pass defense, allowing 74% completion rate, seven touchdowns, and a single interception while getting to opposing quarterbacks for a single sack - lowest in the NFL - through two games. Drew Brees at home with time in the pocket is a lethal combination and worth the premium salary.
DeAngelo Williams, $8,800: Williams has zoomed up in price since Week 1 in his starting stint until LeVeon Bell returns. The Eagles are a middle-of-the-road rush defense overall by ProFootballReference.com's Expected Points metric. However, Philadelphia is allowing 4.7 yards per rush to the relative lackluster run games of Cleveland and Chicago to open the season. Williams has seen a whopping 68 touches in two games and offers arguably the highest floor of usage at the position entering Week 3.
Melvin Gordon, $7,100: With Danny Woodhead out for the season, Gordon turns into an unquestioned lead back in terms of snap count with minimal competition for touches outside of his own scheduled rests on the sideline. Week 3 is the chance to take advantage of a mid-tier salary and a positive matchup against the Colts. This game has the second-highest Vegas total of the week and the Colts are allowing 4.5 yards per rush and three touchdowns on the ground through two games. The Lions shredded Indianapolis in Week 1, including 10 running back receptions, and Denver posted more than 140 total yards among their running backs last week. Gordon is a cheap RB1 option or strong RB2 in FanDuel lineups this week.
Frank Gore, $5,700: On the opposite side of the Colts-Chargers game as Melvin Gordon, Gore is another inexpensive volume play. While the Chargers have faced just 30 rush attempts through two games, they have been carved up at an NFL-high 5.1 yards per carry and two scores. The Colts are right up there with New Orleans and Green Bay for Vegas team totals of the week. In addition to seeing double-digit attempts on the ground, Gore has been active in the pass game this season with four and three receptions respectively in two games.
Jordan Matthews, $6,900: Matthews is the clear lead receiver in Philadelphia with 23 targets in two games. No other Eagles player has seen more than 12 (Nelson Agholor). The Steelers are a middle-of-the-road efficiency matchup for opposing pass games but they are stingy against the run. A heavier pass slant for the Eagles is expected considering the matchup and being underdogs in Week 3. Slot options Jamison Crowder and Tyler Boyd have both had solid games in consecutive weeks against Pittsburgh.
Stefon Diggs, $6,400: Diggs' salary has not corrected in connection with his two-week run of strong production. Diggs has seen nine or more targets in both games and rose in production with Sam Bradford instead of Shaun Hill under center in Week 2. Without Adrian Peterson and an underdog this week, the volume will continue to be there for Diggs as the clear lead receiver against Carolina.
Dennis Pitta, $5,000: Pitta is one of the easier recommendations of the week. Pitta has dominated the Baltimore Snap% since returning to action and broke out with a team-high 12 targets in Week 2. At $5,000, Pitta is still outside the top-20 tight ends in FanDuel salary this week with a higher floor than nearly all tight ends ahead of him.
Adam Vinatieri, $4,700: Vinatieri has been a hyper-accurate kicker in his career, especially since arriving in Indianapolis. I target the most reliable offense and kicker combination for the lowest salary, ideally in a dome as a Vegas favorite. Vinatieri meets the entire criteria this week.
Seahawks, $5,400: The 49ers have played better than expected through two games, but get a stiff test in Seattle in Week 3. Seattle has allowed an NFL-best 2.8 yards per carry, signaling a pass-heavy approach for opposing offenses where the Seahawks can thrive. They have allowed zero passing touchdowns and forced eight sacks, second in the NFL. While Seattle's offense has struggled, their defense is earmarked to thrive this week at home.
THE SNEAKY PLAYS
Marcus Mariota, $7,700: Oakland is a New Orleans-like pass defense to target in the early weeks of 2016. The Raiders have allowed a 71% completion rate, seven touchdowns, and the No.2 yards-per-attempt (10.8) in the NFL. They also have struggled to cause pressure (two sacks) and are lapping the NFL in quarterback rating against (131.4). Mariota has been accurate himself through two games (67% completion rate) and offers rushing upside.
Eddie Lacy, $7,300: Lacy has adequate through two games, but the Green Bay offense is showing similar qualities as their 2015 struggles to consistently move the ball. Week 3 marks their chance (and Lacy's) to break out against Detroit as strong home favorites with the second-highest Vegas team total of the week. Detroit is the best rushing matchup in the NFL by ProFootballReference.com's Expected Points metric and allowing 5.1 yards per rush. Also, Detroit has allowed 16 receptions to running backs through two games. Lacy is likely to be sparsely owned after his 128 total yards, zero touchdowns, and one reception start but is a bounce back candidate in Week 3.
Jeremy Langford, $6,500: Jordan Howard flashed in his Week 2 debut, but Langford is still the starter in Chicago for now. The Bears are a struggling offense overall, however, the Cowboys are an optimistic run matchup (4.8 yards per carry, bottom 25% in PFR metrics) who allowed Matt Jones to have nearly five yards per carry and a touchdown in Week 2.
Michael Thomas, $5,200: The Saints are the offense to include in lineups this week. Brandin Cooks and Willie Snead are far more expensive than Thomas. The Snap% for Thomas is solid, however, at 78% and 60% in his first two NFL games. With Coby Fleener underwhelming, the third receiver is more important than ever in New Orleans. As mentioned in the Drew Brees section of the article, Atlanta is a matchup to exploit this week on the road.
Kenny Britt, $5,400: The Rams are a stunted pass game. Britt, however, is playing his best ball in years and looks explosive like the early years in Tennessee. At $5,400, Britt is the cheapest lead receiver on FanDuel and he has seen 16 targets (at least six each game) through two weeks for 161 yards. Projecting a touchdown will be sporadic week-to-week, but a quality floor of targets is there. Tampa Bay is a pass defense to target, allowing 8.8 yards per attempt, five touchdowns, zero interceptions in two games.
Jared Cook, $5,000: The Lions are struggling mightily against tight ends to open the season. Cook and Richard Rodgers are splitting snaps in Green Bay, but Cook is the big play threat. The Lions have allowed an NFL-high 15 receptions and are lapping the league in four touchdowns to opposing tight ends thus far, including big games to Jack Doyle, Dwayne Allen, and Delanie Walker.
Cowboys, $4,600: Targeting backup quarterbacks and poor offenses is low-hanging fruit for DFS defensive production. In addition to Brian Hoyer under the center for Chicago, the Bears offense has been a struggle even with Jay Cutler this year offering little beyond Alshon Jeffery, a struggling run game, and a suspect offensive line. The Bears have allowed an NFL-high eight sacks and turned the ball over four times. Dallas' defense is not an overt strong unit, but can force pressure (a middle-of-the-road four sacks) and gets Chicago in Dallas this week.
