This weekly article will focus on Fanduel.com cash games where being above-average is the phrase that pays. With tournaments and low-probability setups, a unique lineup and making bold decisions make for a quality entry. With cash games, the mantra shifts to ‘avoiding the suck’ as the annual David Dodds strategy article outlines. In a 100-player Double-Up game, finishing No.1 or No.45 pays the same. Cash games like this are the mutual funds of daily fantasy games: grind week by week and end the season with a hearty profit, minimizing the risk of losing a bankroll along the way. At a minimum, playing cash games round out a high-variance daily player’s portfolio.
Here are some general player selection guidelines:
HIGH-OWNERSHIP PLAYERS
In the first half of the 2014 NFL season, ownership data was available on FanDuel when Thursday Night Football lineups locked. Now, that is not the case. Fortunately, the high-ownership players aligned with the value plays according to my projection system quite often. Playing highly owned commodities in head-to-head, Double-ups, and 50/50s insulates the scoring floor in relation to other teams to surpass the money line. The ownership data provided below is from various rosters submitted to large 50-50 and Double-Up games at FanDuel prior to Thursday Night Football's lock. Not all players were submitted to gauge ownership, but all of the best values for the week were involved.
HIGH-VOLUME PLAYERS
A rogue long touchdown or goal line carry can propel a tournament player to victory on Monday Night Football, going from a donated entry fee to a big pay day. In the cash games arena, an insulated floor of expected targets, carries, and passes keeps daily players in the hunt by Sunday and Monday night. While the top overall score in the group is unlikely, being above the cash out line is a positive expected value scenario.
BEST MATCHUPS
In addition to high-ownership and high-volume opportunities, the best cash game plays center around the ideal matchups of the week. That is a two-fold proposition as the Vegas lines (point spread and over/under) give an indication of likely game flow and fantasy points allowed can turn typical middling options into top value plays. When combining high-ownership, high-volume, and positive matchups, the optimal plays for the week reveal themselves.
Overall Philosophy
I combine many online projections, including those from Footballguys.com as a starting point to create a value board at each position. Then I analyze matchup data in terms of efficiency allowed, strengths and weaknesses of the opposing defense, and regression factors.
LAST WEEK'S LINEUP
- Shaun Hill
- Shane Vereen
- Ryan Mathews
- Kelvin Benjamin
- Antonio Brown
- Julio Jones
- Rob Gronkowski
- Nick Novak
- Miami Dolphins
QUARTERBACKS
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Colin Kaepernick's play swings from breathtaking to frustrating on a play-to-play basis. That said, he comes out on top of value board this week in his own tier nonetheless. Washington cannot cover anyone (Mike Evans is still running wide open) and they are +18% on a per-pass basis for opposing quarterbacks. At a palatable 7300, he allows plenty of flexibility for a high-priced running back or wide receiver.
Alternates
If diversifying the position this week, Mark Sanchez (once again) and Blake Bortles are next on the list. Tennessee is an average matchup for Sanchez and the high-flying Eagles offense; he has a very comfortable floor. Bortles saves cash at 6300, but losing Allen Robinson will hurt and Bortles essentially depends on garbage time, which should be plentiful against the Colts. Matt Ryan (7600) is also viable against a Browns team that struggles to pressure the quarterback.
Most Owned
- 19% - Colin Kaepernick, 7300
- 16% - Mark Sanchez, 7500
- 15% - Andrew Luck, 10300
RUNNING BACKS
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DeMarco Murray has a great matchup and has one of the highest floors at running back around. At 9000, Murray works well with the non-elite priced quarterbacks this week. The Giants struggle in run defense (-20 on ProFootballFocus) and are allowed +31% efficiency per carry against running backs. When safe studs are affordable and have good matchups, they are auto-starts.
Alternates
Rashad Jennings is back and healthy and the Giants need him. The matchup is not great against Dallas, but at 6600 his floor of touches warrants a healthy ownership level this week. I cannot believe I am typing this, but Trent Richardson is very much in play at 5700 and limited competition for touches in a likely comfortable win against Jacksonville. LeSean McCoy has an outstanding matchup in terms of efficiency allowed and the Eagles strong offensive line against the woeful Tennessee run defense. McCoy is a medium-priced option at 7700, but no more of a value per dollar than Jennings or Richardson. Finally, Matt Forte, like DeMarco Murray, is an easy recommendation each week. This is a great matchup for Forte against Tampa Bay if extra salary allows for a Murray-Forte tandem at running back.
MOST OWNED
- 34% - Jamaal Charles, 9100
- 26% - DeMarco Murray, 9000
- 25% - Trent Richardson, 5700
- 18% - Isaiah Crowell, 5500
- 13% - LeSean McCoy, 7700
- 12% - Tre Mason, 5600
- 10% - C.J. Anderson, 7200
WIDE RECEIVERS
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Kelvin Benjamin and Antonio Brown have been regulars in this section, but both are on bye this week. Instead, it is a cluttered top tier of options. Percy Harvin is the top option by the value numbers, but playing in a potential avalanche gives pause to the recommendation. At 6400, Harvin is worth monitoring the field conditions and weather up until kickoff. Calvin Johnson goes to New England, which is a tough draw for wide receivers. Detroit will have to open up the offense and Johnson can fit into the budget within a low-priced quarterback or running back.
Alternates
Unlike previous weeks, the mid-to-low priced value options are plentiful. Cecil Shorts (6300) benefits from Allen Robinson being out for the season and the Colts looking to rebound from a blowout at home. Marques Colston (6000) can benefit from Brandin Cooks going to IR and the Saints are a different team in the home dome. Malcom Floyd is a quality play at 5600 with the upside to deliver on a handful of targets. Others worth including in this unusual cluster of similar options are: Demaryius Thomas (9000), Anquan Boldin (6800), and returning to action Josh Gordon (7800). Instead of rotating 5-to-7 wide receivers through lineup variations this week, I recommend extending that to closer to 10 options as every price point has multiple options.
MOST OWNED
- 16% - Cecil Shorts, 6300
- 15% - Josh Gordon, 7800
- 13% - Jordy Nelson, 9000
- 12% - T.Y. Hilton, 8500
- 12% - Odell Beckham, 7500
- 10% - Marques Colston, 6000
- 9% - Roddy White, 7300
- 9% - Malcom Floyd, 5600
- 9% - Torrey Smith, 6500
- 8% - Anquan Boldin, 6800
TIGHT ENDS
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Coby Fleener has looked like a different player of late and with the new-found chemistry with Andrew Luck, Fleener enters the DFS conversation. The Jagaurs struggle in coverage and at 5400, Fleener allows for plenty of studs around him in a lineup. Fleener is in the top tier by himself this week for value and warrants being in at least 50% of lineup variations.
Alternates
Larry Donnell continues to dwell in the mid-5000 range and this week is no different at 5500. He is a threat to score any week and there are only three regular options in the Giants passing game. The Cowboys are also a good matchup (+11%) for tight ends. Jimmy Graham is the preferred stud this week, over Rob Gronkowski and is 400 less at 7500. Finally, Travis Kelce deserves a small ownership share at 5400 and with a neutral matchup for tight ends against Oakland.
MOST OWNED
- 48% - Coby Fleener, 5400
- 9% - Rob Gronkowski, 7900
- 7% - Jimmy Graham, 7500
- 7% - Larry Donnell, 5500
- 6% - Travis Kelce, 5400
KICKERS
This week is about kickers from top offenses. The three options to mix evenly through lineups are Shayne Graham (4700), Cody Parkey (5000), and Adam Vinatieri (5400). Filling out the rest of the lineup prior to kicker will likely make the choice based on salary available.
MOST OWNED
- 21% - Brandon McManus, 4500
- 9% - Shayne Graham, 4700
- 5% - Cody Parkey, 5000
- 5% - Adam Vinatieri, 5400
- 5% - Mason Crosby, 4900
DEFENSES
Like kicker, three options stand out this week. The Eagles are a big-play unit with a great matchup against the pass-blocking challenge Titans. The Bills rush the passer well, but like Percy Harvin, monitor the snow storm prior to their game against the Jets. Finally, the Seahawks are at home and against Drew Stanton - a great combination. All three are in the 5000-5200 range.
MOST OWNED
- 17% - Eagles, 5100
- 14% - Chiefs, 5400
- 10% - Bills, 5200
- 9% - Seahawks, 5000
