Strong takes are paramount to winning the long-term game of dynasty fantasy football. There is value in making incremental moves and accruing interest by 5-10% margins in trades and through waiver wire churning and flipping. However, using historical data and projected outlooks beyond the current season can lead to optimal trades and roster value windfalls over the long term. Here are my platform players to maximize their value for the rest of the season:
PLATFORM wide receivers
quincy Enunwa
Enunwa has enjoyed an ideal start to the season. The Jets had no tight end (TBD on Austin Seferian-Jenkins with his fresh start) and Eric Decker now on Injured Reserve. Enunwa has been used more like a hybrid player (wide receiver-tight end) than a pure receiver. The absence of a tight end is part of the equation there. If Seferian-Jenkins is an upgrade over the long run of irrelevant tight ends for Jets, Enunwa takes a hit. Eric Decker is still under contract for multiple seasons. Brandon Marshall's contract is fully guaranteed in 2017. Also, Ryan Fitzpatrick is a stopgap quarterback. While not playing that well, the quarterback position could be worse in 2017 than this season. In Week 7 specifically, Robbie Anderson logged more snaps than Enunwa behind Brandon Marshall, plus Jalin Marshall and Devin Smith (second round pick) will also be in the mix.
Finally, Enunwa was a late Day 3 draft pick with a boom-bust profile as an athlete with little college production behind the size-speed combination. As a result, Enunwa has projected odds of around 7% to be a full-fledged fantasy starter in a season. 2016 feels like the sell high window for Enunwa with downside beyond the season. Acquiring a future 2nd may be the cap of Enunwa's dynasty market. I would explore even a full round upgrade from Round 3 to Round 2 of a future pick or use Enunwa as an add-on to finalize a 2-for-1 or 3-for-1 trade construction.
Michael Floyd
Floyd was a cheaper acquisition a couple weeks ago but still has upside beyond his market value. Floyd is one of the cheapest former first round receivers out there who has a track record of production. Floyd is an uncertain start the rest of this season, but is one of the more attractive 2017 free agents at any position. Spotrac.com projects a monster deal for Floyd and I doubt a team brings in Floyd to be anything less than a strong WR2 or their top receiver. Floyd's Adjusted Draft Tier (ADT), which projects their fantasy starter odds, of 91% is higher than all but Amari Cooper and Sammy Watkins over the last two draft classes.
Offering current producers (like Enunwa, Cameron Meredith types) with a future 2nd may be enough to acquire Floyd. The best tactic is added Floyd to a larger deal - like selling Jordan Howard for example - on the backend. Floyd will be a rising name in the dynasty marketplace come January and February.
Dorial Green-Beckham
The fresh start was a great thing for Green-Beckham. Slowly and surely, Beckham has risen up the Eagles depth chart and now is regularly in the WR2/3 range of weekly snaps. He is their best red zone and jump ball threat - an area in which he dominated in Tennessee - with room to grow with Carson Wentz. Beckham, like Floyd, is a quality draft position buy on the rebound. His cost is likely lower than his late Round 1 rookie pick initial price in 2015. Beckham was an elite prospect out of high school, plus is a well-balanced prospect with at least +20% marks in Size, Athleticism, and Production in my receiver projection model.
Michael Thomas (Saints)
Thomas has been an auto-correction in terms of my valuation. I was neutral to below consensus on the Ohio State rookie back in May. However, he had more than 50 yards in all but one game to start his NFL career and is surging past Willie Snead as the No.2 in New Orleans with ease. Thomas has passed the eye test with flying colors. While his price is escalating, Thomas is one of the few buy recommendations I would make on a rising market value player. I did not get Thomas in many rookie drafts, but am acquiring shares now. I would avoid giving a 2017 1st as part of the trade package to include Thomas, but be aggressive - even selling a current producer to acquire Thomas now.
Cameron Meredith
I am a big seller of Meredith. While I recommended adding Meredith across leagues in my weekly Preemptive Dynasty Waiver Wire post over at UTHDynasty.com, now that Meredith can pull a tangible rookie pick in return, I would flip him. Like Enunwa, Meredith's long-term odds to fully realize starting-caliber production is low...in the range of 5-10%. For Meredith to be a Week 1 starter in 2017 with an optimistic outlook, Alshon Jeffery needs to leave Chicago (certainly possible) in free agency this coming offseason. Kevin White will be returning from injury (again), but get every opportunity to return value from Chicago's No.7 overall selection in 2015. Finally, Chicago would need to pass on a top 2017 free agent or drafted receiver to create a clear path for Meredith. I am skeptical Meredith would avoid all those landmines. There are more variables, too, with Meredith producing to a decent level the rest of the season. Packaging Meredith with a future 3rd for a future 2nd is an ideal haul, but I would expect an early 3rd straight up for 2017.
Tyrell Williams
Like Meredith, Williams is a low-draft pedigree proposition enjoying an ideal run of opportunity in San Diego. Antonio Gates is eroding and Keenan Allen is out for the season. Allen will be back in 2017 and Hunter Henry looks like an offensive centerpiece for years to come. The Chargers are likely to add more competition - beyond Allen - this coming offseason. Williams can likely return more than Meredith in the dynasty trade market, maybe even a 2nd straight up or a 2nd to 1st upgrade. Even if the upgrade is in 2018, I would jump on securing a sturdy asset over banking on Williams emerging in 2017 with the same opportunity he has mid-2016.
