Friday's NBA slate is somewhat bizarre. Like an hourglass, it's bulging with serious scoring potential at the top ends of the salary chart as well as strong value toward the bottom,with thin and shaky options inbetween. It features high-dollar (high, high dollar) options across multiple positions, two of whom face each other in a matchup Vegas projects to scrape the sky. And with several injuries in play, value and points-per-minute efficiency will rule the roost in a likely high-scoring DFS day. I wanted to discuss the slate with BJ VanderWoude, who's a fantastic NBA DFS mind and always good for serious insight.
Tonight is Rockets-Thunder Night, which should be a blistering affair. Vegas has set the over/under at 223 (currently 225) in preparation for a wild showdown, so both Russell Westbrook and James Harden will be littered across DFS lineups. Both have the potential to absolutely destroy DFS fields with monstrous lines. But is it wise to automatically play one? Is fading both an option? Consider their astronomical costs - they'll need 55-60 points to even approach their value markers - as well as the fact that their last showdown was a 208-point game in which neither stud hit cash value. Let us know if you plan to fade one in particular, or both.
VanderWoude: Harden and Westbrook's salaries have reached a point where it becomes difficult to justify playing them in GPP's, although Westbrook much more so than Harden. The only thing that matters to me is their ceiling, with Westbrook's established ceiling at 79.8 and Harden's at 75.3 on DraftKings. At their current salary, (Westbrook $12,800, Harden $11,500) both possess ceilings in the 6x range. If you were to look at the other point guards in the slate, specifically, Kyle Lowry and Goran Dragic, both possess ceilings in the 7x range. The easiest way to judge to Westbrook and Harden's value is to pair them with another player and calculate their combined ceilings. Lowry and Dragic's combined salary would be $15,600, and they have a combined ceiling of 115.3 points. With respect to Westbrook, you could not even add a player with a minimum salary and be under $15,600, and with respect to Harden you could add a player at a salary of $4,100, but you would need 40 points out of that player to reach 115.3 points. In my opinion, Westbrook is unplayable on large slates at his current salary, and Harden is on that threshold, but if the right value presents itself on the slate, there is merit to playing him.
The easiest way to take advantage of a game like this is to look to the second tier players on each team. The last time Houston and OKC played each other, Victor Oladipo scored 55.5 (8.4x) DraftKings points, Trevor Ariza had 32.8 points (5.9x), Clint Capela had 38 points (6.7x) and Eric Gordon had 27.8 points (5x). Houston tends to spread their scoring out more evenly, so Capela, Gordon and Ariza are all in play against OKC. Gordon specifically has played well as of late and is growing into his role as a 6th man off the bench. He trails only Lou Williams in 6th man scoring this season (Gordon 17 ppg, Williams 18.6 ppg) and is averaging 33.3 DK points over his last six games. Equally impressive has been Oladipo, who is starting to flourish as Westbrook's sidekick. He is averaging 32.4 DK points over his last 11 games, with four games of 40+ points during that span. The pace of this game favors Oladipo's slashing style of play, so I would not be surprised to see him put up 40+ points in this game and return a 6x multiple on his salary. This is a game you want to take advantage of with the projected total being so high, but I don't think you need to resign yourself to just looking Westbrook or Harden.
Tonight features a buffet of typically studly center options. They're pricey, though. DeMarcus Cousins is priced through the roof, the usual suspects (Karl-Anthony Towns and Hassan Whiteside) are nearly cost-prohibitive, and several mid-range guys have ballooned in salary after big weeks. Is there one (or two) in particular you must have tonight, or are you looking for values/punts?
VanderWoude: The centers I am looking at tonight are Al Horford and Andre Drummond . Both Horford and Drummond are priced well, and they allow you to build balanced rosters around them, which is important on a slate that has both Russell Westbrook and James Harden on it.
When Horford has been healthy, he's been incredible for the Celtics. Operating out of the high post area, Horford is starting to have the offense run through him, which makes sense considering his ability to facilitate and get his teammates open shots. He's averaging 15 points, 6.4 rebounds, 5.3 assists, 2.6 blocks and .5 steals per game. I like my centers to contribute in other areas besides points and rebounds, be it assists, blocks or three's. Horford contributes in all categories, and the only downside to playing him is that Isiah Thomas needs the ball in his hands to be effective, so Horford can sometimes go long stretches without touching the ball. Every game that Horford plays with his new Celtics teammates, he gets more comfortable in his role and more assertive as a scorer. We have not seen the best of him yet, but he still has an established ceiling of 58 points (8.9x) this season. He's a cost-effective option at center with the upside to help you win a large GPP.
Playing Andre Drummond is tricky because he can be shutdown offensively by other centers, and is generally not the first or second scoring option on his own team. Still, he contributes enough rebounds to make up for his lack of scoring at times, and he consistently contributes in blocks and steals. Over his last 10 games, when Drummond has scored at least 18 points, he has scored 50+ DraftKings points. While Karl Anthony-Towns is a force on the offensive side of the ball, he has difficulty guarding opposing centers. Last night Jonas Valanciunas dropped 20 on him, Rudy Gobert had 18 on him last week and Anthony Davis abused him for 45 points in their matchup. Drummond should have a great game tonight and return at least a 5x multiple on his salary, with the upside to reach 7x-8x.
Tonight's slate of power forwards looks fairly barren and depressing in terms of value. Which 1-3 will you be rostering most tonight, and why?
VanderWoude: The three guys power forwards I will have the most exposure to are Kevin Love (if he plays), Kristaps Porzingas and Dwight Powell. It is indeed a depressing cast of power forwards overall, but Love does provide some great value at the top. The ability to use players as both small and power forwards on DraftKings helps, as Paul George, Rudy Gay, Jabari Parker and Harrison Barnes are all better PP$ plays than what you would find strictly at the power forward position.
Kevin Love is questionable to play tonight, so that must be taken into account as he is playing at 7:30 and 7pm is lock. When he is on the floor, Love has been dominant, and you have to look no further than his 34 point 1st quarter against the Blazers for proof. He's become a deadly 3-point shooter, but that hasn't stopped him from grabbing 10.3 rebounds per game. The balance between being a perimeter threat and battling on the block is one that is not easy to find, but Love is doing it very well. At $7,600 on DK, he is a bargain. His floor is stable (40.6 ppg) and he has an established ceiling of 62 points this season, with four 50+ point games as well. He's as good a value as you'll find at any position, and even more so on a night where it will be difficult to nail down several power forwards who exceed their salary value.
Porzingas is a play that is based more on the lack of value at the power forward position more than anything. His price is somehow higher than Love's despite having a lower floor and a lower ceiling, not to mention four points lower than Love's average points per game (Porzingas 36.4, Love 40.6). Playing alongside Carmelo Anthony, Porzingas can sometimes get lost in the shuffle, but that is happening much less this season than last. In fact, Porzingas has arguably become the focal point of the offense. He offers a solid floor and he contributes in all categories, especially on the defensive end where he is starting to blossom as a shot blocker. He already has two 5 block games, including a 15 point, 14 rebound, 2 assist, 5 blocks and one three-point performance against OKC. On a night where there is value to be found at the small forward and point guard positions, I recommend spending up at power forward for either Love or Porzingas, or perhaps both in the case of FanDuel.
If you are looking for value at the power forward spot, I would consider Dwight Powell. He doesn't have the upside to help you win a GPP, but if you are rostering a team of studs and duds, he can get you 25-30 points, which is enough to consider him at his current price. There aren't many other options out there tonight, and you can do a lot worse than Powell.
