Point Guard
Chalk City
Russell Westbrook ($12,000 DK / $11,600 FD)
Stephen Curry ($9,000 DK / $9,100 FD)
John Wall ($8,800 DK / $9,600 FD)
Damian Lillard ($8,500 DK / $9,000 FD)
Kyle Lowry ($7,800 DK / $8,600 FD)
Contrarian Plays
Tim Frazier ($5,700 DK / $5,400 FD)
Langston Galloway ($3,700 DK / $4,100 FD)
This isn’t to take anything away from Jrue Holiday, who’s a fantastic, versatile stud and often a DFS value king himself. But since his return, the real GPP appeal has been found in Frazier. He’s not losing any minutes with Holiday back on board; rather, he’s seen 32-36 minutes in all 4 games since Holiday’s return. And he’s being used in a traditional PG role, with Holiday seeing lots of time off the ball in three-guard lineups. That’s resulted in assist totals of 8, 8, 14, and 8 for Frazier, and he’s hit or approached universal 5x value in each game. It’s clear that the Pelicans’ PGs are intensely valuable, considering their frenetic pace of play and bevy of dynamic scorers. And it’s very, very sexy that their clear-cut minutes dominator/lead play-setter checks in so cheaply. In a typical Pelicans game, we can take Frazier’s recent output and project the cusp of 5x value. But in a matchup with the Trailblazers, who have allowed 105+ points to each of their last 11 games and struggle mightily with PGs, he’s fried gold.
On the same roster, Galloway just keeps producing but has yet to crack an 8% salary. He’s a fine punt tonight, matched up against the defense-free Blazers in a game projected to produce 219 points. Galloway sees plenty of court time (24.3 minutes over the last 7 games) as the Pelicans routinely rely on explosive, three-guard lineups. Galloway’s ability to score, steal, and rebound from the bench is far undervalued by DFS pricing.
Shooting Guard
Chalk City
James Harden ($11,700 DK / $11,700 FD)
Giannis Anteokounmpo ($9,100 DK / $10,100 FD)
DeMar DeRozan ($8,400 DK / $9,400 FD)
Bradley Beal ($6,400 DK / $6,300 FD)
Contrarian Plays
Zach LaVine ($5,900 DK / $5,700 FD)
The DFS community is flush with solid top-dollar options at SG, so a blend of dependability and salary relief is hard to find. When that's the case, my general rule is to target mid-salaried options who are productive for their team's slow paces, but are set to see an exposion in opportunity due to matchup. The Timberwolves, for example, should see highly elevated play and scoring totals tonight against the Suns, who play at a frantic pace and struggle to defend anyone. Their 108-point projection is higher than normal, and it's more than they've scored as a team in any of their last 3 games. And LaVine has been producing decently, drawing enormous minute totals (36-40 in 6 of his last 7 games) and mixing notable assist and steal totals in with his scoring. His fantasy rate (0.81 points per minute on DraftKings, 0.76 on FanDuel) over the last 7 games is good-not-great, but it bakes a discount into his salaries and should elevate noticeably anyway tonight. The Suns are allowing a 51.2% effective field goal rate, which looks like solid medicine for LaVine's shooting mini-slump.
STACK Lou Williams ($5,600 DK / $5,100 FD) & Jordan Clarkson ($5,400 DK / $4,900 FD)
I’ve been beating the drum of this stack for a few days now. They failed to reach value against the Warriors on Wednesday, but get a home crack at them tonight with a much stronger outlook. D’Angelo Russell is out, and Nick Young and Julius Randle are questionable; if they also sit, Williams and Clarkson will see decidedly heavy lifting in a high-paced, high-projected game. Consider that that fivesome combines to account for 74.8 points and 17.0 assists per game. If we can project the Lakers to their Vegas expectation of 110 points, then we can easily see the two combining to reach 5x-6x value. The stack would provide that value, but without having to guess at the night’s hot shooter. Both these guys will see solid ownership, but a GPP stack of both will differentiate you just fine.
Small Forward
Chalk City
Kevin Durant ($9,600 DK / $9,900 FD)
LeBron James ($9,400 DK / $9,800 FD)
Jimmy Butler ($9,300 DK / $8,800 FD)
Paul George ($8,000 DK / $8,400 FD)
Contrarian Plays
Wilson Chandler ($5,700 DK / $5,900 FD)
Aside from Wednesday’s blowout loss to defensively dominant Utah, Chandler has been scoring in fantastic fashion. He’s scored 16+ real-life points in 8 of his last 10 games despite fluctuating minute totals behind Danilo Gallinari. But what boosts his already high ceiling is the elite wing rebounding; he’s gathered 9+ boards in 7 of his last 10. His outlook only blossoms if Gallinari, who’s battling a thigh injury, is unable to go tonight. If that’s the case, you can pencil in Chandler for an easy 17+ shots from the field, and the smart money says he’ll be productive. The Nuggets host the high-paced Thunder, and they average seven points per game more at home than on the road. Chandler is truly set up for a sheer eruption, and as his midlevel salary he may not see increased ownership, as the top of the slate is packed with studly SFs.
Matt Barnes ($4,300 DK / $4,000 FD)
He’s underproduced wildly in two games since this recent minutes increase, racking up a combined eight points, five rebounds, and two blocks-plus-steals across 65 minutes of play. But that could work to your advantage tonight in rostering him. With such solid court time, a stat-stuffer like Barnes carries a ton of contrarian potential. The three-and-D specialist occasionally chimes in across the board, and he faces an attractive matchup against a Rockets team that coughs up turnovers at the league’s third-highest rate. Barnes should be busy on defense and needed to at least chip in on offense, and 5x value seems likely.
Power Forward
Chalk City
Anthony Davis ($10,700 DK / $11,600 FD)
Blake Griffin ($8,200 DK / $9,600 FD)
Kevin Love ($7.800 DK / $7,800 FD)
Kristaps Porzingis ($7,700 DK / $7,200 FD)
Contrarian Plays
Paul Millsap ($7,300 DK / $7,800 FD)
Tonight Millsap travels to Utah, a slow-paced team that’s often looked downright dominant on the defensive end. Rudy Gobert has shut down strong paint play for most of the year, and Millsap’s ownership will reflect that. DFSers simply have far too many strong high-dollar options today to concentrate on a relatively up-and-down option. But that could work out nicely for Millsap, who should fall below 10% ownership despite a better outlook than many think. The Jazz are indeed a fine defensive team, but that’s not universal nor etched in stone. In fact, they’ve allowed two midlevel PFs, Zach Randolph and Nikola Jokic, to reach 6x value over the past week. So who’s to say Millsap, a premier talent who checks in underpriced for his ceiling, can’t join the club? Millsap plays outside plenty and won’t see much attention from Rudy Gobert, a major boon for his scoring outlook. And very few players carry his penchant for peripheral stats, fried gold for tournament play. Millsap doesn’t need more than around 15 points, 10 rebounds, and his usual smattering of assists, steals, and blocks to reach tournament value. And he’s a fine option to roll those dice on.
Nikola Jokic ($4,600 DK / $4,500 FD)
The Nuggets frontcourt is crowded, and it hasn’t been easy to project its minutes lately. But the only source of consistency over the last week has been Jokic, who’s posted remarkable per-minute fantasy scoring (1.20 DraftKings, 1.16 FanDuel) over his last 4 games. That projects him beautifully in tonight’s fast-paced matchup with the Thunder. By his recent production rate, Jokic only needs to see 20-23 minutes to achieve GPP value. And the massive slate – coupled with the presences of Kenneth Faried and Jusuf Nurkic – should keep Jokic’s ownership nice and low. He carries the floor of a value placeholder and the ceiling of a difference-maker.
Center
Chalk City
DeMarcus Cousins ($9,900 DK / $10,300 FD)
Hassan Whiteside ($8,700 DK / $9,300 FD)
Karl-Anthony Towns ($8,400 DK / $9,000 FD)
Contrarian Plays
Jonas Valanciunas ($6,700 DK / $6,200 FD)
With all of the elite center plays on the board, I won’t try to talk you out of rostering the big boys. Cousins, Whiteside, Towns, and Marc Gasol all carry strong outlooks as usual. But to diversify, it makes sense to secure a good bit of exposure to Valanciunas, who’s quietly destroying the paint of late. Valanciunas is dialed in and by no means a matchup play for the Raptors, seeing 33.5 minutes per game over the last 4 and boosting his usage rate to 19.5 in the process. He’s notched 8+ rebounds in 9 straight games, reaching 14+ in 2 of the last 3. There’s simply very little not to like, especially matched up against the Bucks, who allow more fantasy scoring by centers than any other team.
Tyson Chandler ($4,500 DK / $4,700 FD)
His return won’t make headlines, but it could be very DFS-notable. Alex Len was borderline excellent in his place, but that’s been the case dating back to last year, and the Suns seem set on Len as a limited-minutes weapon. Even with Chandler out, Len has ceded plenty of minutes to Alan Williams, and there’s no real concern over a takeover here. Chandler will remain the starter, seeing 25-30 minutes a night, and Len will anchor the second unit. But public perception has probably swung away from Chandler – out of sight, out of mind – and toward the dynamic Len. Shrewd DFSers will wait and see on Len’s role going forward, and will notice that Chandler has been more productive on the court than his Friday salary demands. He’s rebounded like a maniac all year, grabbing 10 or more in 6 of the 7 games in which he’s topped 21 minutes. Even with low offensive numbers, Chandler can easily eclipse 6x value with his usual strong rebounding night and a block or two. And he’s reached that mark in each of the last 4 games in which he’s been given more than 21 minutes.
