Atlanta Hawks
Key Losses: Thabo Sefolosha
Primary Beneficiary: Tim Hardaway Jr.
The Hawks’ defensive specialist on the wing, Sefalosha’s loss won’t be felt much in terms of new opportunity. He’s taken just 9 shots over 41 minutes across the last 2 games. Still, his loss shifts the Hawks’ rotation into more of a guard-centric one that should again afford Hardaway a solid 20-25 minutes. He’s a pure scorer who relies on hot jump shooting for his value, but he tends to hover around a fantasy point per minute and could provide GPP value as a solid punt.
Boston Celtics
Key Losses: Jae Crowder, Al Horford (game-time decision)
Primary Beneficiaries: Marcus Smart, Kelly Olynyk
Secondary Beneficiaries: Jonas Jerebko
Crowder won’t be playing tonight, meaning Smart will again play a very prominent 35+ minutes. He’s been mostly consistent with the opportunity, bringing home universal 6x value in three of his last five games. Smart simply can’t shoot and still isn’t much of a scorer, but he’s a bit or a peripheral king. Across those 8 games he’s averaged 4.5 rebounds, 3.6 assists, and 1.9 blocks-plus-steals, helping him to reach universal 6x value 3 times. His value is tailor-made for a matchup with the Warriors, which will maximize his limited score opportunity and send his peripheral potential through the roof. The murkier situation here is Horford’s; he’s resumed practice and should return tonight, but there’s no telling where his minutes will land. Olynyk has started the last four games and played reasonably well, averaging 12.5 points and 6.3 rebounds, and would bring strong value in tonight’s high-paced game if Horford either can’t go or winds up limited. Jerebko would also see a few minutes and grab a handful of rebounds, but he’s only a borderline punt play even in Horford’s absence.
Brooklyn Nets
Key Loss: Jeremy Lin
Primary Beneficiary: Sean Kilpatrick
Secondary Beneficiaries: Yogi Ferrell, Isaiah Whitehead
Lin is considered unlikely to play through the weekend. Most of the appeal in his place lies with Kilpatrick, though he’s faded noticeably of late and isn’t a recommended play. He’s seen his two lowest minute totals (18 and 19) in the last two games as the team has ended his “replace Lin at point guard” experiment. Kilpatrick is a pure scorer who opened the year on fire, but has hit just 37% of his shots (27% from three) and declined sharply in generating free throws over 6 games without Lin. And with no real PG minutes over the last two, there’s not much of an outlook for assists to boost him in poor-shooting games. Most importantly, his salary hasn’t adjusted for the massive drop-off, so culling cash value here seems like a longshot. You’d be better served paying the minimum for Ferrell and hoping his last two games (26 and 19 minutes) signal a usage increase.
Cleveland Cavaliers
Key Loss: J.R. Smith (questionable)
Primary Beneficiaries: Iman Shumpert, Richard Jefferson
Secondary Beneficiaries: Channing Frye, Kevin Love
Smith went through shootaround this morning, but may sit for a fourth straight game. Shumpert and Jefferson have shared his minute allotment, and while neither has been consistent all year, there are wisps of value to be had. Shumpert isn’t much of a scorer but can stuff a stat sheet; he hasn’t recorded a steal in these last 3 games, but averaged 2.9 over the first seven. A reasonably hot shooting night would make him a decent deep-GPP stab. Still, the most tangible value shift has come in the form of opportunity for Frye and Love, who have been the Cavaliers’ three-point engines without Smith. Frye in particular has been an outstanding punt, taking 9.3 threes per game and reaching universal 6x value (or better) in all 3 games.
Dallas Mavericks
Key Losses: Dirk Nowitzki, Deron Williams, J.J. Barea
Primary Beneficiaries: Wesley Matthews, Seth Curry, Harrison Barnes, Dwight Powell
The Mavericks’ roster has become one of constant injury – as well as constant confusion as to their severities. We do know, though, that Nowitzki and Williams will miss at least the next two games, and that Barea is week-to-week, setting up Matthews and Barnes as the team’s scoring engines in the short term. Barnes has been magnificent as a Maverick, and through 8 games without Nowitzki he’s averaged 22.4 points and a smattering of peripheral numbers. With a price point that’s palatable for a top scorer, Barnes is a solid small forward play, even in a loaded slate. Matthews is far more hit-or-miss, shooting just 31% from the field scoring in single digits 4 times. But he’s taking 13.4 shots per game, and his upside for that skyrockets with so many bodies on the shelf. At his lower-end salary, Matthews is a moderately strong value play. There’s also decent value in Curry, who’s seen 32.0 minutes and taken 12.3 shots over his last 4 games. Curry is pricey and faces a tough matchup in Tony Allen, but offers strong offensive volume, in both scoring and assists. He’s also notched nine steals over those four games. Still, all told, the strongest value play tonight is probably Powell. He’s seen his minutes increase markedly without Nowitzki, and he stands as a cheap likely source of 6-10 rebounds and a dynamic number of blocks and steals. He’s arguably the slate’s top power forward punt.
Denver Nuggets
Key Losses: Will Barton (doubtful), Gary Harris
Primary Beneficiaries: Jameer Nelson, Jamal Murray
With both primary shooting guards out, Nelson has started the last two games and been leaned on heavily, notching 33 and 34 minutes and taking 20 shots from the field. But Nelson doesn’t run the point much and provides next-to-nothing in peripheral categories, so he lacks real upside, and there are stronger floors available in his salary range. Murray carries a bit more ceiling, but likely won’t see more than 20-24 minutes of only modest impact.
Detroit Pistons
Key Loss: Reggie Jackson
Primary Beneficiary: Ish Smith
Secondary Beneficiary: Beno Udrih
Jackson hasn’t played yet this year and looks to be on track for a return within the next 2-3 weeks. That’s bumped the always-underappreciated Smith into the lineup, where the results have been mixed, and Udrih into a marginal backup role. Smith’s production has been inconsistent – he’s shooting just 40% and 17% from three and has yet to top 8 assists in a game. He’s best utilized in high-paced matchups, which today probably won’t be.
Indiana Pacers
Key Loss: Paul George
Primary Beneficiaries: C.J. Miles, Monta Ellis, Thaddeus Young
George was a fairly late scratch, and his loss will be felt, of course. But the Pacers are flush with attractive options to pick up his scoring and playmaking slack. Miles will step into the lineup, and he's been a phenomenal source of value averaging 14.6 points and a handful of blocks-plus-steals in small salaries. He remains cheap tonight and becomes a near-elite play in any DFS format. Ellis will also see increased ballhandling opportunity tonight, but his role is a bit up in the air; he's high-ceiling but also low-floor. Young is a wild card, but he's seen consistent opportunity lately and his face-up game In any event, get in on the value here: there's a 27.1 usage rate up for grabs against a bottom-of-the-barrel defense in a fast, frenetic pace.
Memphis Grizzlies
Key Loss: James Ennis (questionable)
Primary Beneficiary: Vince Carter
If Ennis can’t go, Carter will be super-glued into the rotation and likely see another 30+ minutes. Carter has been red-hot from the bench, averaging 17.3 points, 2.3 threes, and 2.8 assists over the last 4 games. Any solidity in his minutes would vault him into serious DFS relevance tonight.
New Orleans Pelicans
Key Losses: Anthony Davis (questionable), Jrue Holiday (probable) Alexis Ajinca (questionable)
Primary Beneficiaries: Terrence Jones, Tim Frazier, Omer Asik
Davis told reporters early Friday that he will play tonight. But DFSers know the every-fragile nature of Davis’ health – or perhaps more accurately, the cautious nature of Pelicans management. There remains a decent chance he sits tonight, which would make Jones an absolute must-play. Jones is still in the mix even with Davis active, as he played 30 high-impact minutes alongside him Monday. But a DNP for Davis would turn Jones into the chalk play of the night. That’s especially true if Ajinca sits, as the Pelicans would play a healthy dose of small-ball and keep Jones on the court. In that scenario, even Asik would bring value as the team’s only healthy center. He’d almost certainly see 25+ minutes and provide decent rebound and block numbers for a pure punt. Still, likely the most notable issue here is the (probable) return of Holiday, and the fact that Alvin Gentry has publicly placed a very high (30) cap on Holiday's debut minutes. Veteran DFSers know that 30 minutes of Holiday can bring tremendous production; last year, he averaged 16.8 points, 6.0 assists, 3.0 rebounds, and 1.7 blocks-plus-steals over 28.2 minutes. If he's indeed utilized for 30 tonight, he'll bring sneaky, low-owned GPP appeal and bump Frazier largely out of relevance.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Key Loss: Cameron Payne
Primary Beneficiary: Semaj Christon
Payne won’t make his season debut anytime soon, but Christon doesn’t provide any juice in his place. He’s impressing the Thunder and getting minutes both behind and next to Russell Westbrook, but has yet to top 20 in a game and provides little by way of numbers.
Phoenix Suns
Key Loss: Tyson Chandler
Primary Beneficiaries: Alex Len, Jared Dudley
Chandler’s reason for missing Friday is unclear, but we know the dynamic Len will start in his place and serve as the slate’s top center value. When Chandler missed 3 games last week, Len played 29+ minutes twice and provided double-doubles in both. (The team played small-ball against the Warriors in the third.) Dating back to last season, Len is routinely an intriguing GPP play alongside Chandler and a must-play without him, and this uptempo matchup with Myles Turner looks tailor-made for DFS value. The light frontcourt also seals in 28+ minutes for Dudley, who has been outstanding off the bench. He averaged 16.7 points, 4.7 rebounds, and 2.8 assists over those 3 Chandler-less games and is worlds ahead of Marquese Chris in terms of opportunity.
Portland Trailblazers
Key Loss: Al-Farouq Aminu
Primary Beneficiaries: Allen Crabbe, Meyers Leonard
Secondary Beneficiary: Moe Harkless
Aminu is day-to-day and won’t suit up tonight. Harkless is in the midst of a true breakout and doesn’t need Aminu’s absence to secure 30 minutes of court time, but it would make him a more stable cash play and provide a bit more opportunity. Crabbe is a valuable matchup play for the Blazers, but his fantasy production is too inconsistent and low-impact to be considered on a 10-game slate. Across the 5 games without Aminu, he’s played 23 minutes or fewer twice and scored in single digits 3 times. Leonard was widely expected to see more time with Aminu unavailable, but like Crabbe he’s a matchup-based specialist, and his minutes and production are minimal and hard to pin down. He’s seen just 21 minutes over the last 2 games and responded with just 2 field goals and 3 rebounds. Still, the combination of his low recent minute totals and massive salary nosedive make him an intriguing punt play. He carries the track record of a fairly high-volume three-point shooter and occasional rebounder.
