Boston Celtics
Key Losses: Marcus Smart (questionable), Al Horford (questionable), Jae Crowder (questionable)
Primary Beneficiaries: Kelly Olynyk, Terry Rozier
Secondary Beneficiaries: Amir Johnson, Jaylen Brown
Crowder has missed eight straight games, but stated there’s a “good possibility” he’ll return tonight. If he does, of course, we can’t expect a full complement of minutes off the bat – he’d likely share time with Johnson, Brown, and Rozier. When you also consider that Smart hurt his ankle last night and seems unlikely to play, those four guys carry noticeable GPP appeal. Rozier makes sense around the DFS minimums after going off for 11 points, 5 assists, and 7 rebounds in the Warriors blowout. Brown is also a minimum or near-minimum play, but he’s far more of a reach for value. Johnson is about as hit-or-miss as they come. Over Crowder’s 8 missed games, he’s scored 6 points or fewer 4 times, but reached or approached universal 5x value 4 times as well. That kind of instability is intriguing, but very iffy in a slow-paced matchup with the Pistons. Tonight should be The Isaiah Thomas/Avery Bradley Show.
Horford is traveling with the team, but doesn’t seem likely to suit up tonight. That would lock in Olynyk as the starting center, but he’s looked awful this week and isn’t priced well across the industry; he’s merely a deep-GPP diversity play.
Chicago Bulls
Key Loss: Rajon Rondo
Primary Beneficiary: Jerian Grant
Secondary Beneficiary: Isaiah Canaan
Rondo has lost the last two games to an ankle ailment. If he sits again tonight, there will be real opportunity in play, but nowhere near enough predictability or dynamism in the backups to make me want to chase them. The Bulls are a low-paced team, and a date with the defensive-minded Clippers is nobody’s idea of fun (save for DeMarcus Cousins). Grant has flashed point-per-minute ability here and there, but is no longer near the minimum salaries and doesn’t really carry the upside to produce behind a moderate punt play. And Canaan is a low-impact guy mired at 0.67 points per minute. Besides, the 10:30 start time of this matchup means we may not have a handle on Rondo’s status at lineup lock; you don’t want to be stuck with a second-team Grant. There is stronger salary relief available elsewhere.
Dallas Mavericks
Key Losses: Dirk Nowitzki, Deron Williams, J.J. Barea
Primary Beneficiaries: Harrison Barnes, Seth Curry
Secondary Beneficiaries: Dwight Powell, Wesley Matthews
They’re a veritable MASH unit, as Nowitzki and Williams will miss at least tonight’s game and Barea faces a multi-week timetable. Obviously, that all leaves the Mavericks razor-thin on the scoring and playmaking fronts, so the few healthy names left should continue to see strong usage. In last night’s hard-to-watch clunker, Curry and Barnes still managed to combine to take 31 shots, with Matthews chiming in another 10. There are gobs and gobs of opportunity to be had, and the DFS community as a whole will move largely away from Mavericks after the anemic garbage we just saw. But Barnes has been ablaze minus Nowitzki for most of the young season, averaging 21.6 points without him. And Curry boasts a handful of high-value games of his own over the past week, succeeding despite poor shooting; a strong offensive day against the ho-hum Magic could produce majorly. Cash players can confidently employ Curry and Barnes as high-usage, high-floor options, while Matthews and Powell will carry some tournament appeal of their own. Matthews is extremely hit-or-miss and shooting just 31% on the year, but his high minutes and volume occasionally produce strong point and steal totals. Powell dropped a dud last night, but remains priced near the DFS minimums and has corralled 8+ rebounds in 3 of 7 games.
Miami Heat
Key Losses: Justise Winslow, Dion Waiters (game-time decision)
Primary Beneficiary: James Johnson, Rodney McGruder
Secondary Beneficiaries: Josh Richardson, Tyler Johnson
With Winslow out, the Heat tend to run a healthy chunk of three-guard rotations, making the two Johnsons DFS-valuable. James was the primary upgrade Thursday with 30 minutes of play, and he’s a moderate punt play tonight. He’s stuffed the stat sheet across limited minutes this year, averaging 13.4 points, 7.7 rebounds, and 2.5 blocks-plus-steals per 36 minutes. He’s likely see plenty of opportunity against high-usage Otto Porter and Markieff Morris. Tyler and Josh Richardson aren’t affected much by Winslow’s absence, as they’re already locked into prominent roles. But if Waiters sits as well, both will see increased usage in an uptempo matchup. McGruder would also enjoy a minutes bump, but he’s not much of a producer and would lack punt value. Still, note that coach Erik Spoelstra expects Waiters to “warm up with the intent to play.”
Memphis Grizzlies
Key Loss: Mike Conley (questionable)
Primary Beneficiaries: Wade Baldwin IV, Andrew Harrison
Conley has been battling Achilles and quad injuries all season, and there’s reportedly a chance he’ll sit tonight, the second game of a back-to-back. When Conley missed on November 1, Harrison drew 31 minutes and Baldwin 23 in his place. Both are semi-promising young players, but neither would be worth a DFS punt, even in a cherry matchup.
Minnesota Timberwolves
Key Loss: Shabazz Muhammad (questionable)
Primary Beneficiary: Nemanja Bjelica
Muhammad has lost three straight games to knee soreness. He’s not heavily woven into the rotation when healthy, but his loss has opened the door for Bjelica to post 24 points, 8 rebounds, 3 assists, and 3 steals last Sunday. A Muhammad return muddy the waters, of course, and neither would project to much DFS appeal.
New Orleans Pelicans
Key Loss: Alexis Ajinca (questionable)
Primary Beneficiaries: Terrence Jones, Omer Asik
Ajinca could miss tonight, and we know what Jones is capable of when his path to 30 minutes is clear. His 15-point, 7-rebound, 4-block performance next to Anthony Davis last night was a thing of beauty, and if Ajinca can’t go, Jones can again expect upwards of 28-30 minutes. Keep your expectations in check – the Hornets represent a definite pace-down from the Pelicans and last night’s opponents (the Blazers). But power forwards and centers have had an absolute field day against Charlotte. That would also make Asik an intriguing deep-GPP punt at near the DFS minimums. He posted five rebounds, two assists, and two blocks last night with Ajinca on the shelf.
Philadelphia 76ers
Key Losses: Joel Embiid (questionable)
Primary Beneficiaries: Dario Saric
Secondary Beneficiary: Ersan Ilyasova, Richaun Holmes
Embiid may actually suit up tonight, as his ankle sprain is reportedly minor. But it’s no secret how protective the 76ers are of their franchise big, so the smart early money is on Embiid sitting out. If that’s the case, both Saric and Holmes will see boosts in minutes and usage. Saric in particular averages enjoys a hefty value boost; he’s posted usage rates of 25.1 and 32.4 in the last two Embiid-less games, with 13 points and 12 rebounds this past Wednesday. Holmes isn’t a producer and his minutes boost wouldn’t register much, but Ilyasova also gets a solid usage bump and can help DFSers with a strong shooting night. Saric would be the play, however, in a massively uptempo matchup with the Suns. In related news, Jahlil Okafor’s 24-minute restriction
Phoenix Suns
Key Losses: Tyson Chandler, T.J. Warren (questionable), Devin Booker
Primary Beneficiaries: Jared Dudley, Alex Len, P.J. Tucker
Secondary Beneficiary: Brandon Knight
Chandler is not with the Suns at the moment following the death of his mother; he won’t play tonight. That locks in Len to start again, and he’s red-hot, posting three double-doubles over his last five games. Len stuffs the stat sheet, allowing him to succeed even when the minutes don’t go his way. (Last night he reached universal 7x value across just 22 of them.) His salary has yet to swell, so there’s nothing wrong at all with rolling him out again tonight. His minutes may be restricted into the low-20s, but his chalk and play-to-play impact are of cash-game quality. Chandler’s absence allowed Dudley to post another monstrous game from the bench; without Chandler available, he’s averaging 16.5 points, 4.8 rebounds, 3.5 assists, and 3.3 threes. Stunningly, he remains near the DFS salary minimums, so he’s again the slate’s strongest punt against the defenseless (and high-paced) 76ers.
The further story here is in the backcourt, where Booker is nursing a mild ankle roll and Warren is battling the flu. With this being the second game of a back-to-back – and a matchup with the awful Sixers – it’s easy to envision the team holding one or both out. That would only lock in more opportunity for Dudley and Tucker, and would also afford Knight more time alongside and/or in place of Eric Bledsoe. (Note that Bledsoe’s minutes are on a short-term decline, and he played just 13 minutes in last night’s blowout.) In any event, Dudley is shaping up as an elite punt in either cash or GPP formats, and the red-hot Knight, who’s surpassed universal 10x and 6x value in the last two games, would be a premier tournament play.
