Dynasty Trade Value Chart

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dynasty trade value chart

In a 12 Team League with PPR scoring and a starting lineup of 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE and 1 RB/WR/TE Flex, here are the top 100 most valuable non-rookies:

In addition to a 1-100 ranking, this chart also includes a numerical trade value for each player. This value should be used as a rough guide in valuing players for purposes of making trades. 

For example, A.J. Green has a trade value of 48, Keenan Allen has a trade value of 28 and Jordan Cameron has a trade value of 20. Thus, trading A.J. Green for Keenan Allen and Jordan Cameron would be an even trade. Each team would receive 48 points worth of value.

methodology

The dynasty valuations seen above are based upon a formula that takes into account:

1. Projected scoring in 2014

2. Projected scoring in 2015 and beyond

3. Career longevity for each player.

Let's use Andrew Luck as an example...

The starting point for calculating Andrew Luck's dynasty value is to determine his 2014 value. My projections have Luck scoring 22.5 points per game. The next step is to figure out what PPG total should be used as our "Baseline" for QBs. The baseline is an approximation of what would be considered "replacement level" production. There is a bit of art involved here, but essentially we are picking a PPG total that is just a notch below the worst starter at the position. My projections show 14 QBs should score 20 PPG or more in 2014, so that will be our baseline for a 12 team league with 1 starting QB per team. Thus, Andrew Luck's 2014 value is 22.5 PPG - 20 PPG= 2.5. 

The next step in calculating Luck's dynasty value is to determine his value for the seasons of 2015 and beyond. Again, we start with projections and they show Luck averaging 23.5 PPG through the rest of his career. We go back to our baseline of 20 PPG and subtract to figure out that in future years, Andrew Luck's annual value will be approximately 3.5 per year. We will multiply this by his "Longevity Factor" to determine his value in 2015 and beyond. 

How do we determine Longevity Factor? One method would be to simply estimate the number of years a player will play. There would be some merit to this approach. Especially with a player as talented and productive as Luck. One could argue that Luck will likely play through the year 2026 and that his longevity factor should be 12. However, this approach seems flawed. It simply does not make sense to count projected 2026 production as equally valuable to 2014 production. There are simply too many variables and thus we need to discount future production in some way. The way chosen is to use a longevity factor which serves as a way to compare player vs. player to project which players are the safest bets to have long and productive careers. Luck ranks at the top of this list and thus earns a 6 which is the highest possible Longevity Factor score and thus the highest of any player overall. 

Longevity Factor and how it is calculated for each position will be discussed in much greater detail below, but for now let's get back to Andrew Luck. Luck's 2015 and beyond projected annual value of 3.5 multiplied by his Longevity Factor score of 6 gives us a future value of 21. Add his future value of 21 to his 2014 value of 2.5 and we get Andrew Luck's Dynasty Trade Value score of 23.5.

 qb dynasty trade value calculations

The top two QBs in our ranking system are Andrew Luck and Aaron Rodgers. While Rodgers is projected to be a slightly higher scorer than Luck, Luck edges out Rodgers in terms of overall value due to career longevity. Rodgers is 30 years old which seems to be put him right in the middle of his prime years as NFL QBs are productive well into their 30s. Thus Rodgers earns a solid 4.5 score on LF ("Longevity Factor"). Andrew Luck is 24 and just starting to enter his prime years. He should have an incredibly long and productive career and thus earns the maximum LF score of 6. 

Further down the list, we have Peyton Manning who provides an interesting contrast to some of the other most highly valued dynasty QBs. Manning's Dynasty Trade Value of 12 is based 50% on his 2014 value (26 PPG-20 PPG = 6) and 50% on his future value (4 PPG advantage x 1.5 LF = 6). These values are determined in a vacuum and do not take into account the rest of an owner's roster. For an owner with an older roster who is in "win now" mode, Manning's high 2014 value could be extremely attractive despite his low LF. This owner may value Manning higher than his overall score of 12 and be willing to overpay (in terms of the above chart) to procure his services. On the other hand, an owner that is rebuilding and focused upon winning over the long term, may value Manning less than the average owner and thus may be willing to sell him at a slight discount. 

In looking at the QB calculations, some may be wondering why some young players have relatively low LF scores. For example, Robert Griffin III only scores a 4 on LF. Griffin III is actually seven months younger than Andrew Luck. So why different scores? While age is the biggest factor in the Longevity Factor, it is not the only determinant of the score. Injury concerns also factor in. Luck is simply a safer bet than Griffin III to have a long, healthy career. In addition, LF is designed to take into account the likelihood that a player is able to maintain above replacement level productivity. Griffin III still ranks relatively high with his score of 4, but he is not necessarily a lock to consistently exceed the 20 PPG baseline as his 2013 performance illustrates.

rb dynasty trade value calculations

The two most valuable players in our 2014 projections, LeSean McCoy and Jamaal Charles, are also the two most valuable dynasty RBs overall. Unlike the QB position, it is extremely difficult to rely on long term production from the RB position. RBs have shorter careers, are more prone to injury and are more dependent upon factors outside of their control (Offensive Line play, play calling, etc.) than other position. Thus, the highest maximum LF score for RBs in only 4. Again, the LF is not a guess as to how many productive years the player will have left. It is a tool to compare players to each other as we try to determine the future value that each is likely to have. 

In perusing the LF scores above, one should notice that they are lower than at any other position. This should make sense from a logical perspective. Would you be willing to bet on any RB being a valuable fantasty contributor 6 or 7 years from now?

A low LF score of 1.5 also knocks a player like Adrian Peterson down the list. I expect Peterson's ranking will be somewhat controversial as some will argue he should not be ranked below unproven backs like Bell, Bernard, Ball and Lacy. However, Peterson turns 30 years old in six months. It is simply unwise to project him to be highly productive three or four years from now. Of course, Peterson could be the rare RB who continues to put up huge stats into his mid-30s. If that ends up being the case, his Dynasty Trade Value Score of 17.5 will prove to have been too low. One of the most enjoyable aspects of the dynasty experience is that as an owner, you can bet on players you truly believe in and if you feel Peterson is such a freak of nature that he will have many more productive season, you should value him accordingly.

Another player that is ranked lower than he is often taken in startup drafts is Arian Foster. The 28-year-old Foster has been incredibly productive over the past four seasons and remains the starter in Houston. However, his heavy workload seems to have taken a physical toll on him. In addition, he will have to transition to a new offensive scheme that will be far less RB-friendly. Projecting big numbers beyond this season for Foster is especially problematic as his contract is essentially a series of one year team options with very little dead money which means Houston could decide to move on before Foster hits age 30.

 wr dynasty trade value calculations

 As the overall rankings indicate, the top of the Dynasty Trade Value list is dominated by WRs. Whereas RBs generally experience shorter careers and face an incredibly high risk of injury, the top WRs usually are able to maintain high levels of production into their early 30s. The longer productive shelf life means the maximum LF for WRs is set at 5. While this is lower than QB (max. of 6), it is higher than RB (max. of 4). A player like A.J. Green who just turned 26, has not shown to be injury prone and who should not see any negative changes to his situation ranks at the top of the list scoring the maximum LF of 5. It would be a surprise if Green is not still a highly productive WR in five years when he will be 30-years-old and still in his prime.

Finding seperation amongst the top five WRs is extemely difficult as all have strong factors in their favor. It requires a bit of nitpicking, to set the five in order. The primary factor knocking Julio Jones down is that he has not been able to stay healthy for a full season in his three year career. This is a risk factor that simply is not present with the other four elite WRs and this is reflected in his LF. Demaryius Thomas also has a bit of injury history, though he has been healthy of late. The biggest factor keeping him from the top spot is the fact that he is not likely to be playing with Peyton Manning for many more years and Denver does not have a strong replacement lined up at QB yet and thus his production could suffer over the long term. Calvin Johnson has been the most valuable player in dynasty for a few years. However, his age is starting to become a bit of a factor when projecting long term value. Unlike the other elite WRs, Calvin Johnson will be 34 years old in five years. While players like Green, Bryant, Jones and Thomas are still likely to be in their prime, Johnson will be nearing retirement and this is reflected in his LF.

The next tier of WRs includes Alshon Jeffery, Keenan Allen and Randall Cobb. Each of these players is extremely young and highly talented. However, it still remains to be seen whether any of the three will be available to take their game to an elite level and repeat success over a number of years. There is both a high risk and high reward in choosing one of these players. With a big season in 2014, any of these three players could shoot up the Dynasty Trade Value list and join the truly elite tier. The risk is obvious however in that none of these guys has enough of a track record to safely project big numbers for 2014, much less for the long term. Plus, Cobb is scheduled to hit free agency next spring. News of Jordy Nelson's contract extension actually jumped him past Cobb in the latest update as the assurance of assurance of continuing to play with Aaron Rodgers closed the LF between the two players enough to push Nelson past Cobb. If Cobb was to sign an extension with Green Bay and show an ability to stay healthy, he would likely leapfrog back over Nelson due to his age.

te dynasty trade value calculations 

 Jimmy Graham can no longer be denied his rightful place as a top 10 overall player in terms of Dynasty Trade Value. In fact, Graham may be closer to #1 overall than he is top #10. The freshly signed four year contract extension to stay in New Orleans with Drew Brees and the high octane Saints offense helps as well. 

Rob Gronkowski is the second highest ranked TE by a good margin. While Gronkowski is still young, he has a relatively modest LF of 3.5 due to the fact that he has ended the season on Injured Reserve three straight seasons. Longevity is a product of both age and health. In addition, Gronkowski may not have future Hall of Famer Tom Brady throwing him the ball three or four years down the line, which could cut into his productivity. Still, Gronkowski remains one of the truly elite players in the game when healthy and provides a huge fantasy advantage to his owners when he is able to suit up. 

In a tier of their own are Jordan Cameron and Julius Thomas. Cameron slightly edges Thomas because he has shown the ability to produce without an elite QB whereas Thomas' only productive season happened to coincide with the biggest QB season in NFL history. It will be interesting to see if Thomas can remain a fantasy difference-maker without Peyton Manning. Also working against Thomas is the fact that he will be a free agent after the season and the Broncos may have to use the franchise tag on WR Demaryius Thomas. Should Thomas leave Denver and land with a less talented QB, his value could fall dramatically.

After the top four, there is a large group of interesting young TEs with undetermined upside. It really comes down to personal preference. Eifert comes in fifth by a hair due to his elite talent and the fact that he could see increased production should Jermaine Gresham leave as a free agent after the upcoming season. Jordan Reed has a strong case to be ranked fifth himself, however his LF score is impacted by the high number of concussions he has suffered. It is difficult to project a long career for Reed due to this factor.

where are the rookies?

As noted above, these rankings currently include only veterans. This is on purpose as the rookies will be added to the Dynasty Trade Value chart later this week as a differnt methodology will be used to determine their value. This methodology will require a lengthy explanation and thus is slated for a seperate article. If you are drafting now and cannot wait, please check my rankings on Footballguys.com as the rookies are included in those rankings.

what if my league has different scoring or different roster requirements?

Be on the lookout for a follow-up article next week that gives multiple Dynasty Trade Value charts that are designed to take into account different scoring rules and league types including 2 QB, Superflex, TE Premium and others.

final thoughts

1. The hope is that these rankings will prove a useful tool for use during a startup draft. This method has proven successful in the past in assembling true "dynasty" teams that are able to compete for the championship every year instead of having to settle for a short run followed by a period of rebuilding. In addition, these rankings should provide useful guidance in assessing and making trade offers to improve your roster and chances of long term success. 

2. Even if the rankings and trade value calculations are not used directly, hopefully the article will at least provide some food for thought. It is always difficult to determine long term player value, but at least making the attempt to quantify value in some meaningful way is an illuminating exercise.

3. If you like the ranking and value concepts explained above, you may be interested in tweaking the assumptions to arrive at values that reflect your own personal views on players in terms of 2014 projections, future projections and longevity factor. If so, please feel free to direct messages me in the forums or contact me on twitter (@hindery) and I will email you a spreadsheet in which you can easily and quickly make the rankings your own. 

4. Feedback is always appreciated so feel free to let me know which values you disagree with and why. My hope is to be able to continually improve,  refine and update these rankings and values so they truly help you dominate your dynasty league.