Herein is another edition of the "FantasyDraft Dominator”, where we will examine the salaries of players at each position on FantasyDraft and make recommendations for both your cash games and tournaments. Below you will find a list of recommended players for both formats. Cash game players are the top overall values of the week and can be used without regard to expected ownership percentage. GPP players generally have high-upside, but are too risky for cash games. Expected ownership levels is also a major consideration in determining the top GPP options. In some instances, the value for a player is so strong, he will fall into both categories.
FantasyDraft Dominator will be posted each Thursday morning, but will also be updated throughout the week as new information becomes available. Should you have any questions or players you want to discuss, hit me up on twitter (@hindery).
Quarterback
Cash Game Considerations
Perhaps the biggest decision this week is whether to play Dak Prescott or not in cash games. His ownership is going to be high, so it will be just as risky to fade Prescott as it might be to own him. There are a handful of other strong cash game options priced in $13,000-$14,000 range. Choosing Prescott gives you an extra $3,000-4,000 to stack your roster and potentially opens the door to a pair of elite receivers and a top tight end.
Top Cash-Game Options
Dak Prescott (Cash; $10,000) We could see Prescott’s cash game ownership in the 30-40% range, so your first decision in Week 1 is whether you are going to fade the Cowboys rookie or not. Prescott’s main positive is his price. At the minimum price of just $10,000, he allows you to stack your roster with a number of elite options at other positions. Minimum-priced quarterbacks are especially attractive because you still know they are going to touch the ball every play. Prescott is in an advantageous position because he will get to line up behind the league’s best offensive line, throw to arguably the best red zone target in the game (Dez Bryant) and have plentiful play-action opportunities due to a strong run game led by Ezekiel Elliott. In what could be a low-scoring, slow-paced game, that alone would not be enough for cash game consideration. However, when you factor in Prescott’s own ability as a runner, he becomes much tougher to fade. Prescott rushed for a ridiculous 37 touchdowns in 37 games over his final three college seasons. He also notched 2,521 career rushing yards. We have already seen him have success on the ground in the NFL, with a pair of rushing touchdowns in the preseason. Prescott looks like a good bet for at least 20 rushing yards and has a decent shot at a rushing score as well.
Matthew Stafford (Cash and GPP; $13,700) Stafford is a great option as a safe mid-priced option with elite upside built in as well. The Lions are 3.5 point road underdogs against the Colts, but the game has the highest total of Week 1 at 51 points. The Lions led the league with a 65.6% pass rate and ranked 5th with 39.5 pass attempts per game last season. Stafford wants the offense to play faster in 2016 and thinks continuing to increase the tempo of the game will be a huge benefit for the Lions. Stafford is mostly immune to game script concerns. If the Lions fall behind, he will be forced to go even more pass-heavy than normal. If the Lions jump out to an early lead, Stafford likely had a big hand in the scoring. Plus, the Lions are not built to pound away on the ground with the lead. Even when ahead, the Lions remain pass heavy with their controlled short-passing attack (Stafford had just two interceptions in the second half of the 2015 season). The Colts have been decimated with injuries on the defensive side (see David Dodds’ blog post asking “Who the hell is playing defense for the Colts?”), which makes this Week 1 matchup all the more attractive for the Lions offense.
Derek Carr (Cash and GPP; $13,700) Like Stafford, Carr is a slight road underdog in a game that is tied for the highest total (51 points) of the week. The Saints defense was last in the league in scoring defense, allowing 29.8 PPG in 2015. They were torched through the air, finishing 31st in the NFL 284 passing yards per game allowed. The Saints were dead last in allowing 8.4 yards per attempt through the air. In a game that Vegas projects to turn into a shootout, Carr should have his way through the air. He averaged two passing touchdowns per game last year. With the most favorable matchup imaginable in Week 1, it is reasonable to project nearly three scores for Carr, which makes him a strong cash game play. We saw a number of monster fantasy performances from quarterbacks facing the Saints last season, so Carr is also a strong option in GPPs.
Top GPP Options
Carson Wentz (Cash and GPP; $10,000) Wentz missed much of the preseason with a rib injury, so he is flying a bit under the radar from a fantasy perspective (especially compared to Dak Prescott, who lit up the preseason). Wentz makes an outstanding pivot off of Prescott (who could see ownership of 20%+ in GPPs) and arguably has an even better fantasy opportunity. The Browns defense was dreadful in the preseason. Cleveland is clearly going with a youth movement, jettisoning a number of their top veterans (Paul Kruger, Karlos Dansby, Tashaun Gipson, etc.). The Browns will start a number of rookies in key spots along the defense. While there are some game script concerns (should Philadelphia jump out to an early lead), they are mitigated somewhat with Doug Pederson’s offensive style that focuses on short passes to the backs, tight ends and slot receivers that are safe enough to run even when playing from ahead. The most intriguing aspect of Went’s game from a GPP perspective is his rushing ability. He is a big, mobile quarterback who rushed for 12 touchdowns in his final 19 college games. Wentz could easily rush for 40 yards and a touchdown.
Ben Roethlisberger (GPP; $14,300) Roethlisberger is flying a bit under the radar in Week 1, which makes him a sneaky play in GPPs. He is priced up as one of the top quarterbacks and that will help keep his ownership lower than normal, despite a favorable matchup against Washington. The Steelers have one of the top five implied team totals on the slate at 26.75 points. While DeAngelo Williams is a capable backup, the suspension of Le’Veon Bell could cause the offense to lean even more pass-heavy than normal. Lions-Colts and Raiders-Saints have garnered most of the attention as possible shootouts, but this Steelers-Redskins matchup also has real shootout potential with a game total of 50.
Kirk Cousins (GPP; $13,300) As mentioned above, the 50 point game total for Pittsburgh at Washington is one of the three highest on the slate. The monday nighter could easily turn into a shootout. The Pittsburgh defense was amongst the league’s best against the run last season, allowing just 92.2 rushing yards per game. Teams were forced to take to the air against the Steelers defense; the 63/37 pass-to-run ratio against the Steelers ranked 4th most pass-heavy and the unit allowed 264 passing yards per game (5th most in the NFL). Expect Cousins to have to throw early and often against Pittsburgh, especially if Washington falls behind early. Against a shaky secondary and with arguably the best group of passing game weapons in the league at his disposal, Cousins should be able to take advantage of the opportunity. He is a high-upside option for GPPs and stacks well with Jordan Reed or DeSean Jackson.
Running Back
Cash Game Considerations
DeAngelo Williams and Spencer Ware (assuming Jamaal Charles is out) are the two biggest cash game locks on the slate. The elite running backs are priced significantly below the elite wide receivers, which makes the top backs (especially Todd Gurley) strong options in the flex spots.
Top Cash-Game Options
DeAngelo Williams (Cash and GPP; $10,000) The Steelers are projected to score 26.75 points and Williams is expected to log nearly all of the snaps at running back. Those two facts alone are enough to make Williams a top cash game option at this price point. When you also factor in Williams’ large role in the passing offense, he becomes basically a must-play. He caught 40 passes last season, despite playing half the season in a backup role behind Le’Veon Bell. As the starter, Williams projects for at least three receptions and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he caught 6-7 passes. While the elite backs are reasonably priced in the $13,000-$14,000 range, Williams’ bargain price allows you to save $3,000-4,000 in cap space to load up at receiver, tight end and flex.
Spencer Ware (Cash and GPP; $8,700) All signs point to Jamaal Charles being out for Week 1. Even if Charles is active, he is likely to play limited snaps. For now, the starting job in the Chiefs running back-friendly offense is Spencer Ware. The game script sets up perfectly for Ware in Week 1. The Chiefs are touchdown favorites at home against a Chargers defense that struggled mightily against the run in 2015. San Diego finished 31st in the league against the run, allowing 4.8 yards per attempt. In two games against the Chargers last season, Ware rushed 19 times for 148 yards (7.9 YPC) and two touchdowns. Ware is priced something like $4,000 less than he should be, which makes him almost impossible to fade in cash games. With ownership expected to be through the roof even in GPPs, he is a reasonable fade in that format.
Todd Gurley (Cash and GPP; $13,900) As a 21-year old rookie, Gurley looked like a generational talent who could be amongst the NFL’s best backs for the next decade. He performed incredibly well despite being less than a year removed from a torn ACL and missing the entire offseason. He is now fully recovered and looked fantastic in his limited work in the preseason. While some have expressed reasonable concerns about Gurley’s season-long outlook due to the poor Rams offense (and what could be some ugly game scripts), those concerns do not apply in a juicy Week 1 matchup against the 49ers. In what could be a rarity, the Rams are favorites and may be able to play from ahead. San Francisco was in the bottom-five against the run, allowing 126.2 yards per game. With Chip Kelly expected to push the pace on offense, it should lead to even more plays with the defense on the field and some big performances from opposing running backs. Gurley makes for a strong play in both cash and GPP. His ownership in GPP could end up being surprisingly low due to the bargain options at the position and everyone looking to find ways to pay up at receiver.
Top GPP Options
Ezekiel Elliott (GPP; $13,700) Elliott is a special talent. He looked tremendous in his professional debut against a stout Seattle defense. He also benefits from running behind the league’s best offensive line. The Giants look to have a much improved defensive line, but are still subpar at linebacker. It is an above-average matchup for Elliott and he is likely to see 20+ touches. With Gurley priced just $200 more and playing Monday night in a favorable matchup against San Francisco, Elliott is likely to see lower ownership than he otherwise would. High ownership of Dak Prescott could also drive Elliott’s ownership percentage down.
Christine Michael (GPP; $7,400) If you could take “Seattle team RB” as an option, it would be a cash game lock. The Seahawks are double-digit home favorites and would look to pound the rock in the second-half if they can build a big lead early as expected. However, there is just enough uncertainty regarding the split of carries between Michael and Thomas Rawls that using either as a cash game option is a bit too risky given the other exceptionally strong options on the slate. For GPPs, Michael is a great play. He has a reasonable shot at seeing 20+ carries if the Seahawks do indeed ease Rawls back into action slowly. If Michael does see heavy usage, he is a good bet to hit the 2.5-3x value you dream of in GPPs.
James White (GPP; $7,100) The injury to Dion Lewis opens the door for White to step into the role of primary receiving back in New England. It is always hard to trust a Patriots back as a cash game option because the offensive game plan and player usage varies to extremes each week. In GPPs, White is worth the risk however. The Cardinals are tough to run against and New England enters the matchup as a 6-point road underdog. If the Patriots fall behind, it will not be a “Blount game” and White could approach double-digits in receptions.
Wide Receiver
Cash Game Considerations
We have generally seen a “Big 3” emerge at the position, with Antonio Brown, Julio Jones and Odell Beckham, Jr. all putting up incredible numbers last season and projected to pick up where they left off in 2016. With some bargain-hunting at other position, we can fit two of these three elite players into our lineups in Week 1 and take advantage of their unique combinations of high floors and sky-high ceilings. While there are some intriguing near-minimum cash-game options (Tajae Sharpe for example), we shouldn’t have to go that low. Mid-priced options like Marvin Jones, Donte Moncrief and Michael Crabtree profile as relatively safe weekly plays facing especially attractive matchups in Week 1.
Top Cash-Game Options
Antonio Brown (Cash and GPP; $17,800) The case for Antonio Brown is obvious. In his past 16 games in which Ben Roethlisberger played the majority of the game, Brown has totaled 152 catches and 2,039 yards. A tough matchup against Josh Norman and lack of a dangerous second option (Martavis Bryant) to keep defenses honest may limit Brown’s efficiency somewhat in Week 1. But he will be targeted so often that he should still put up big yardage and reception totals. We want to try to fit fantasy football’s most dominant player into as many of our cash game lineups as possible. In GPPs, Brown’s immense upside means you want at least some exposure to him every week. Expected high ownership in Week 1 make it a less profitable proposition to roster him too heavily though.
Julio Jones (Cash and GPP; $17,700) In two games against the Buccaneers last season, Jones averaged 10 catches on 15 targets for 127.5 yards and 0.5 touchdowns. Rookie first-rounder Vernon Hargreaves III had a solid preseason, but at just 5’10 the talented young cornerback does not solve the Buccaneers matchup problems against the 6’3, 220-pound Jones. With Jones as close to a lock to see double-digit targets as anyone on the slate and his huge height advantage against the Buccaneers defensive backs, he is one of the safest plays of Week 1.
Michael Crabtree (Cash and GPP; $10,300) The assumption from many entering training camp was that Crabtree’s role would decrease as Amari Cooper grew his role into more of a true #1 receiver. The bargain price-point for Crabtree of just $10300 reflects that assumption. However, in the preseason, the Raiders passing offensive looked quite similar to the 2015 version, with Crabtree and Cooper operating more as a 1A/1B tandem. Crabtree also continues to look like the go-to option in the red zone. Delvin Breaux (rated as a top cornerback by ProFootballFocus) is likely to shadow Cooper, which leaves Crabtree primarily matched up against inexperienced second-year player PJ Williams. Crabtree is a strong cash game option in a price range that makes it possible to own a pair of elite receivers. The potentially high ownership of Cooper makes Crabtree a strong GPP pivot play in a game with a good chance of turning into a shootout.
Marvin Jones (Cash and GPP; $9,100) The Lions led the league with a 65.6% pass rate and ranked 5th with 39.5 pass attempts per game last season. Stafford wants the offense to play faster in 2016 and thinks continuing to increase the tempo of the game will be a huge benefit for the Lions. The Lions could easily top 40 pass attempts per game. Jones has emerged as the top receiver in Detroit and should see at least 20% of those passes go his way. Jones should be a strong play all season, but is an especially appealing option in Week 1 against a shaky Indianapolis defense. Chuck Pagano recently called his cornerback position ”not pretty” and “scary right now." Injuries have made the defensive depth chart a mess for the Colts. Vontae Davis is out. Clayton Geathers has been out since July and half the remaining unit has assorted bumps and bruises. The Lions are starting rookie Taylor Decker at Left Tackle, but the Colts do not have the front seven talent to take advantage. The Colts lack an elite pass rusher at outside linebacker and are badly depleted along the defensive line (Henry Anderson is out, Arthur Jones is suspended and Kendall Langford is less than full-strength).
Donte Moncrief (Cash and GPP; $11,300) Moncrief has deservedly generated heavy buzz as a breakout candidate in 2016. The emerging third-year receiver just turned 23-years old in August and has elite physical attributes, running a 4.40 forty at over 220 pounds. The Colts have the second-highest team total on the slate at 27.25 points and Moncrief is probably best positioned to star in Week 1. The Colts interior offensive line is missing stalwart Jack Mewhort and will have a tough time getting the ground game rolling. The offense will have to lean on Andrew Luck and the passing game. Moncrief and T.Y. Hilton are Luck’s go-to options and both are strong plays. However, Hilton is expected to see more of lockdown cornerback Darius Slay, while Moncrief should face a more favorable matchup against Nevin Lawson.
Top GPP Options
Quinton Patton (GPP; $6,400) Patton is an intriguing GPP option due to his matchup, potential volume in Chip Kelly’s high-paced offense and bargain-basement price. The Rams have real depth concerns at cornerback after losing Janoris Jenkins in free agency. Undersized hybrid player Lamarcus Joyner steps in as the starter. Torrey Smith will be covered by the extremely talented Trumaine Johnson, so we could see the 49ers funnel targets to Patton on the other side of the field. An injury to slot receiver Bruce Ellington has left the 49ers incredibly thin at receiver (recently acquired journeyman Jeremy Kerley is expected to start in the slot), which also bodes well for Patton’s usage. At a near-minimum price of just $6400, playing Patton in a GPP allows you to put together a loaded roster with a number of elite options at other positions.
Doug Baldwin(GPP; $12,300) Baldwin is slightly too risky for cash games due to game script concerns. The Seahawks are double-digit favorites at home and could go to a slow-paced, run-heavy offense if they jump out to an early lead. From a GPP perspective, Baldwin is much more intriguing. He has emerged as Russell Wilson’s go-to option in the red zone (13 touchdowns in a five-week stretch late in 2015) and his touchdown upside is immense. Baldwin also gets to matchup against one of the worst groups of cornerbacks in the NFL. Byron Maxwell has struggled since leaving the Seahawks and starts at one outside cornerback spot. Rookie Xavien Howard is expected to get the starting nod at the other outside spot, despite missing nearly all of camp with an injury. Bobby McCain is the slot corner and will have a really tough time dealing with Baldwin.
Jarvis Landry (GPP; $11,300) How often do you see a player coming off of an 111-catch season priced this low in Week 1? Landry is a sneaky value play in a game that could setup extremely well for him to see a boatload of targets. The Dolphins are double-digit road underdogs and could be forced to pass a lot if they fall behind early. Landry was clearly the go-to target for Ryan Tannehill again all throughout camp and in the preseason. Plus, who else is Tannehill going to throw to? DeVante Parker may miss Week 1 with a hamstring injury. Kenny Stills will likely see a lot of Richard Sherman lined up outside. Jordan Cameron has struggled all preseason at tight end. Through volume alone, Landry is a good bet to reach value at this price point. Plus, the Seattle defense is likely to scare away most owners, so the GPP ownership levels should be favorable.
Tight End
Cash Game Considerations
In putting together a cash game lineup, one of the key decisions in Week 1 is whether to go for a near-minimum priced option at QB or TE (or both). Especially if you pay up for two of the elite receivers, you will probably need to go with a near-minimum option at one of the positions. So does it make sense to pay up at QB or TE? For example, do you prefer a QB/TE combo of Derek Carr and Dwayne Allen ($20,000 total) or Carson Wentz and Jordan Reed ($20,300 total)?
Top Cash-Game Options
Jordan Reed (Cash and GPP; $10,300) Reed ranks right alongside Rob Gronkowski as the top Week 1 tight end option regardless of price. Reed’s elite combination of high floor and sky-high upside make it worth making some tough decisions at other positions to find the cap space to fit him in. Reed broke out in a big way in 2015. Including the playoffs, he caught 96 passes for 1,072 yards and 12 touchdowns in 15 games. Kirk Cousins had a 129.0 passer rating when targeting Reed, so it makes sense for the Redskins quarterback to continue to look for his top target early and often. The matchup against the Steelers is also favorable for Reed. The Pittsburgh defense was amongst the league’s best against the run last season, allowing just 92.2 rushing yards per game. Teams were forced to take to the air against the Steelers defense; the 63/37 pass-to-run ratio against the Steelers ranked 4th most pass-heavy and the unit allowed 264 passing yards per game (5th most in the NFL).
Dwayne Allen (Cash and GPP; $6,300) Allen projects as the top value option at TE in Week 1 according to the Footballguys interactive value chart. Allen also checks three key boxes in terms of tight ends that have historically hit cash game value most regularly: He is playing at home, his team is favored (-3.5) and his team’s implied point total is one of the highest on the slate (27.25 ranks second highest). Andrew Luck and the Colts have targeted the tight end position heavily and with Coby Fleener now in New Orleans, Allen will see the lion’s share of the tight end targets. Two of the Colts top four passing targets, T.Y. Hilton and Phillip Dorsett, are undersized and not major threats in the red zone. Allen and Donte Moncrief should be the primary red zone threats. The Lions allowed 11 touchdowns to tight ends in 2015 despite facing a pedestrian lineup of opposing tight ends. In what should be a shootout, Allen projects to have nearly a 50% chance at finding the end zone. While Allen’s reception and yardage upside pales in comparison to Jordan Reed’s, the $4,000 price difference and touchdown upside make Allen an attractive option because he lets you really load up at other positions.
Travis Kelce (Cash; $9,300) Kelce does not have the same GPP upside as Reed; Reed scored 11 touchdowns in just 14 games last season (.79 per game) while Kelce has scored just 10 times in 32 games over the past two seasons (0.31 per game). The $1,000 price difference between the two could prove pivotal in constructing your lineup however and Kelce is a bargain-priced option with a higher floor than Dwayne Allen. Kelce is the clear #2 option in his team’s passing game whereas Allen could be #3 or #4. Like Allen, Kelce is on a home favorite with a high team total. Unlike some of the riskier options on the slate, Kelce has been in the same role on the same offense for multiple seasons. There is very little guesswork in projecting Kelce at 13+ points in Week 1.
Top GPP Options
Jared Cook (GPP; $5,700) Cook has some appeal as a cash game play given his bargain price, but he fits more comfortably as a GPP option due to the slight uncertainty regarding his role in Green Bay’s offense. Richard Rodgers is still listed as the starter ahead of Cook. Cook’s upside is enticing for tournaments though. He is a physical freak who has flashed immense potential as a pass catcher; he can make big plays down the field like a wide receiver. For the first time in his career, Cook will be receiving passes from an above-average quarterback. Going from Case Keenum to Aaron Rodgers is about as big an upgrade as you will ever see for a pass catcher. Cook’s game is similar to Jermichael Finley, who put up some big games catching passes from Rodgers before injuries shortened his career. With Jordy Nelson returning from an injury, Randall Cobb coming off of a disappointing season and none of the Packers other receivers stepping up to provide a true third option in the passing game, Cook has an opportunity to emerge as a key piece in what should be one of the NFL’s top offenses.
Defenses
Cash Game Considerations
The Seahawks ($7,700) are a solid option but are going to be tough to fit into cash game lineups. Pivoting down to the Rams or Bengals saves $2300 or $1900 respectively. Both the Bengals and Rams have dominant defensive lines and are favorites in games with low totals.
Top Cash-Game Options
Rams (Cash and GPP; $5,400) The 49ers implied team total of 20.5 is one of the lower totals on the slate. This despite the fact that San Francisco is expected to play at a fast pace. High-paced games with low team totals are especially attractive because the defenses have extra opportunities to make positive plays (sacks, turnovers, etc.) without too much concern about giving up a bunch of points against. Tavon Austin has a kick return touchdown in each of the past three seasons. In a fast-paced game likely to feature many punts, the dynamic Austin will have some chances with the ball in his hands.
Bengals (Cash and GPP; $5,900) The implied team total for the Jets (19.5 points) is one of the lowest on the slate. Most of the other teams with totals under 20 are facing very highly-priced defenses. The Bengals at just $5900 are a bargain considering the game total and the fact that Cincinnati is favored by 2.5. The Bengals will also have one glaring mismatch that is exploitable for fantasy purposes. The Bengals best pass rusher, Carlos Dunlap, will be facing a platoon of backup tackles , with Ben Ijalana and Brent Qvale expected to rotate with each other at right tackle in replacement of injured starter Breno Giacomini. Expect Dunlap to set up shop in the Jets backfield on Sunday.
Top GPP Options
Eagles (GPP; $6,400) The Eagles are a solid option in cash games if you have some extra money to spend. But that’s not likely to be the case on a slate where you are trying to squeeze in Jordan Reed and a pair of elite receivers. In GPPs, the Eagles are a nice pivot off of the Rams and have a lot of upside due to their aggressive scheme. Robert Griffin III III is making his first start in almost two years and could show some rust in his return. Griffin also has a tendency to hold onto the ball too long, which leads to sacks and fumbles. Only the Seahawks are projected to score more points in Footballguys projections.
