With Danny Tuccitto riding out Hurricane Matthew, I’ve been tabbed to guest author “Acing Aces” this week. As such, the format will be slightly different. We will go position-by-position detailing the top options for both cash games and GPP.
Quarterback
Derek Anderson ($5,400) While there remains some uncertainty regarding whether Cam Newton will be out for the Monday night game, all signs point to Anderson as the likely starter. Anderson excelled in relief of Cam Newton in Week 4. In less than a quarter of work, he put up 172 yards and two touchdowns. He gets to face a Buccaneers defense that funnels the opposition towards the pass due to their stout run defense. Opposing quarterbacks have had success against Tampa. Over the last three weeks, Tampa Bay has averaged 21.3 fantasy points allowed per game to opposing quarterbacks. Anderson is a great GPP option and is stackable with one or both of Kelvin Benjamin or Greg Olsen. Anderson targeted either Olsen or Benjamin on 61 percent of his throws. Both of those receivers averaged nearly 100 yards per game when Anderson was playing, and Anderson threw for a respectable average of 253.5 yards in the two Tampa games.
Tom Brady ($7,400) The Patriots boast the highest implied team total in Week 5 at 28.5 points. The Browns are equally susceptible against the run (28th in DVOA) as against the pass (21st). There is a possibility we see a “Blount game,” in which the Patriots pound Cleveland on the ground. While that possibility is somewhat concerning, there are a number of factors that point to the Patriots also doing plenty of damage through the air. First, the Patriots need to get Brady up to speed quickly. The Bengals and their stout rushing defense await in a crucial Week 6 matchup. It makes sense for Brady to try to knock off as much rust as possible in a game where New England is a double-digit favorite. Second, the “narrative street” angle of an angry, motivated Tom Brady looking to dish out punishment is worth considering. While it can be dangerous to go too far with these type of angles (especially in cash games), this story line is so obvious and we have seen it play out exactly as expected multiple times in the past that we can’t just ignore the possibility of Brady having a monster game. Brady’s price is high, but it should help to keep his ownership down at a reasonable level. He was the 4th highest-owned quarterback in Thursday GPPs (15%).
Ben Roethlisberger ($7,000) While Brady has the narrative angle in his favor, the numbers point toward Roethlisberger as the better cash-game QB1 option. First, the $400 savings is significant. Second, the Jets are brutal against the pass (31st), but very strong against the run (3rd). Pittsburgh is going to have to throw the ball early and often against the Jets stout run defense. Darrelle Revis is questionable and has not practiced all week while dealing with a hamstring injury. "Right now, he's hurt," Bowles said. "Unless he gets better, we'll go right up until game time. He's been progressing and feeling better. We'll see on Sunday morning." The Jets already poor secondary would have to further shuffle without Revis. The Steelers implied team total of 27.75 ranks as one of the highest on the slate (less than one point behind the Patriots). Over the past 2+ seasons (16 games), Roethlisberger is averaging an astounding 340 passing yards and 2.88 touchdowns per game at home. He’s a plug and play cash game option at home.
Ryan Fitzpatrick ($6,250) While Fitzpatrick has struggled mightily the past two weeks (9 interceptions!), Week 5 looks like a potential bounce back spot. The Steelers have a top-10 ranked run defense in DVOA and have proven much more vulnerable against the pass in recent years. The Pittsburgh defense stacks the line and forces opposing offenses to try to beat them through the air. The Steelers have faced a whopping 44.5 pass attempts per game this season and given up 317 passing yards per game. Expect the Jets to employ a pass-heavy approach as well, especially with two of the better receiving backs in the league in Matt Forte and Bilal Powell. At just 9% GPP ownership in Thursday contests, Fitzpatrick is a strong tournament option and the game-stack with Roethlisberger could prove especially profitable in a game that could easily evolve into a pass-heavy shootout.
Brian Hoyer ($5,900) The pricing on Hoyer is extremely attractive as he has stayed below $6,000 despite back-to-back big weeks. Hoyer has passed for at least 300 yards and two touchdowns in each of his starts. His Week 5 matchup is a strong one. The Colts are 30th overall in defensive DVOA and rank 29th against the pass. Chicago is a 4.5-point road underdog in Indianapolis and Hoyer has some limited GPP appeal based upon game script if the Bears fall behind early. However, at 19% GPP ownership on Thursday night, he works best as a bargain cash-game option.
Running Back
Jordan Howard ($4,850) According to John Fox, Howard was outstanding in his Week 4 debut and “we'll ride him pretty good moving forward.” Howard played 63 snaps last week and touched the ball 26 times. He is as clearly established as a workhorse going into Week 5 as any back in the league. The Bears have a solid, if unspectacular, team total of 21.5 points that ranks in the middle of the pack this week. However, the matchup is a strong one according to advanced DVOA stats. Chicago has been about a league-average offense through four weeks (19th overall), while Indianapolis has been a horrendous defense (30th overall). With Howard’s solid involvement in the passing game (10 targets over past two weeks), he is mostly immune to game script should Chicago fall behind early. Howard is almost a must-start in cash games given his heavy expected usage and bargain pricing. He makes for an easy fade in GPPs however. He was owned in 40% of Thursday GPPs and that number could be even higher with David Johnson and Carlos Hyde no longer available. Easy GPP pivots include LeGarrette Blount ($4,800) and Lamar Miller ($5,000 and discussed in detail below).
Jerick McKinnon ($4,500) McKinnon has averaged 19 touches per game in the two games since Adrian Peterson went down with an injury. His usage was especially encouraging last week against the Giants. He rushed 18 times for 85 yards and a touchdown and was also targeted 5 times in the passing game. The Vikings are 6-point home favorites, which sets McKinnon up for another nice game script. Plus, the best way to attack Houston is on the ground. The Texans defense ranks 5th in DVOA against the pass, but just 30th against the run. At 24% ownership in Thursday GPPs, McKinnon is better employed as a cash-game option.
C.J. Anderson ($5,500) The Falcons defense struggles against both the run (25th in DVOA) and the pass (30th in DVOA). Denver’s team total of 26.5 is one of the highest on the slate and just two points less than New England’s 28.5 that many are salivating over. While recent matchups against Tampa and Cincinnati have forced Denver to rely on their passing game, this is at heart still a run first offense and a good chunk of those 26.5 points project to be scored on the ground. The most intriguing aspect of this matchup for Anderson though is how much the Falcons defense gives up in the passing game to opposing running backs. Through four games, Atlanta has given up 38 receptions to opposing backs (9.5 receptions per game). This is a feature, not a bug, of the Falcons defensive scheme. Atlanta is determined to keep wide receivers from getting behind the defense, keeping their safeties deep and attempting to play a “bend but don’t break” style. The underneath is wide open against the Falcons for offenses willing to be patient and exploit it. Expect Anderson to be heavily involved as a receiver this week. Atlanta is also very beat up at linebacker. Starting middle linebacker Deion Jones has an ankle injury. Sean Weatherspoon (ruptured right Achilles) was placed on injured reserve. De’Vondre Campbell (ankle) and Paul Worrilow (groin) are also injured. With a GPP ownership projection of 12-18%, Anderson is not going to be overly chalky.
Lamar Miller ($5,000) Miller is averaging a ridiculous 26.5 touches per game and has seen at least 22 touches in every ballgame. Despite the heavy usage, he has seen his price fall each week and is now RB10 in terms of pricing for Week 5 (just $50 more than Jeremy Hill). Miller is completely off the fantasy radar this week primarily due to poor touchdown luck. Incredibly, he has yet to find the end zone despite racking up 106 touches. The Vikings defense is excellent and is going to be very highly-owned in GPPs, which also helps to push down Miller’s ownership. He was owned in just 3% of Thursday night GPP lineups. To get a player with Miller’s talent and extreme usage at anywhere near such a ridiculously low ownership percentage is a sharp move in GPPs. He is also in play in cash games. While the matchup is less attractive than McKinnon’s, Miller’s usage is much more of a guarantee and being able to essentially lock in 20 touches at $5,000 is a solid cash-game move.
Wide Receiver
Antonio Brown ($6,550) When Brown is playing at home with Ben Roethlisberger, he is almost a plug-and-play cash-game option. Since 2014, Brown has averaged 8.6 receptions, 124 yards and 1.25 touchdowns per game at home when Roethlisberger plays. The salary is high and there are less obvious value plays, so it is not painless fitting the $6,550 into your lineups. But the reward is worth it. One method is pairing Brown and Sammie Coates Jr ($4,000) and locking up most of the Steelers downfield passing attack (which is how teams attack the Jets).The matchup against the Jets is especially attractive. The Jets are 3rd in DVOA against the run but just 31st against the pass. Opposing offenses are almost forced to attack the Jets through the air and rely on pass-heavy game plans. While Brown is an obvious play for cash games, he is only an average option in GPPs, where he was owned in 30% of Thursday entries. Even if he goes off, you aren’t separating from the field. Pivoting to another highly-priced option like A.J. Green, Julio Jones, or Odell Beckham, Jr. makes good sense from a game-theory perspective.
Brandon Marshall ($5,000) Marshall has been slowed the past couple weeks by an injury, but looked good in practice. "He looks a lot better than he did last week," Bowles said. "He's fine." The Steelers have a top-10 ranked run defense in DVOA and have proven much more vulnerable against the pass in recent years. The Pittsburgh defense forces opposing offenses to try to beat them through the air. The Steelers have faced a whopping 44.5 pass attempts per game this season and given up 317 passing yards per game. Eric Decker is out, so Marshall should see a boatload of targets. He saw 12 passes last week, despite a brutal matchup against Richard Sherman. He should get even more opportunities in Week 5 and provides as high a floor as any receiver on the slate. Marshall isn’t flying under the radar in GPPs (25% ownership on Thursday, 2nd highest at WR), but is tough to fade given the matchup and potential target total.
Sammie Coates Jr ($4,000) Sammie Coates Jr is an intriguing upside play in tournaments this week due to the ideal matchup, price and his big-play ability. Coates has hauled in a reception of at least 40 yards in every single game this season. The Jets pass defense ranks 31st in DVOA and is especially susceptible against the deep ball. Marqise Goodwin torched the Jets for 100+ yards and a score a few weeks ago and Coates has a realistic shot at a similar line. Coates is also close to minimum value this week. With tight pricing, Coates is in play as a cash-game option, especially paired with Antonio Brown. Taking a swing on a guy like Coates in a GPP really opens up our cap to target other high-upside plays that would otherwise be difficult to fit in. At 13% ownership in Thursday GPPs, he isn’t exactly flying under the radar. Playing a Roethlisberger-Coates stack without Brown also makes sense as a leverage play with Antonio Brown’s GPP ownership likely to be sky high.
Odell Beckham ($6,200) Unless you have been living under a rock, you have heard plenty of the controversy surrounding Odell Beckham after he has lost his temper in back-to-back weeks. It seems like one of those tipping point weeks for Beckham where either he puts it all together and has a massive week or he continues the downward spiral. In other words, it is a perfect spot for GPPs. The matchup against Green Bay could not be much better from a fantasy perspective. The Packers are allowing just 1.8 rushing yards per attempt and force you to beat them through the air. Sam Shields out again with a concussion. Without Shields, the Packers will go with the same trio they’ve used the past two games: second-year players Damarious Randall, Quinten Rollins and LaDarius Gunter. Green Bay’s pass defense ranks 29th in yards allowed per game (307.3) and 31st in yards allowed per attempt (8.31). More importantly for Beckham, the Packers have been torched in back-to-back weeks by #1 receivers who play a similar game to Beckham. Green Bay gave up nine catches for 182 yards and a touchdown to Minnesota's Stefon Diggs and six catches for 205 yards and two touchdowns to Detroit's Marvin Jones. Jordy Nelson was very highly-owned (18%) in Thursday GPPs and Beckham (13%) was a very popular game stack alongside Nelson. For differentiation purposes, it’s a great week to avoid the game stack and play Beckham without any exposure to the Packers offense.
Steve Smith Sr. ($4,400) Smith is inexplicably underpriced after seeing 22 targets over the past two weeks. He has averaged 8 catches, 99 yards and 0.5 touchdowns over that time. Smith has reestablished himself as the clear top target in Baltimore and looks shockingly good considering the injury he is coming back from. Washington is beat up in the secondary with cornerback Bashaud Breeland uncertain due to his ankle woes and cornerback Dashaun Phillips out due to a hamstring problem. Safety David Bruton was put on IR this week and DeAngelo Hall is out for the season already due to a torn ACL. Washington had to sign a pair of street free agents at Safety this week due to all of the injuries. There is some speculation that star corner Josh Norman could shadow Smith this week, but the Ravens move Smith around a great deal and should be able to get the cagey veteran some decent looks. At the bargain price of just $4,400, Smith appears worth the risk given his recent share of targets.
Julian Edelman ($5,400) Halfway through last season, Julian Edelman was on pace for 112 catches, 1,278 yards and 14 touchdowns. The touchdown production is particularly notable from a GPP perspective, as many mistakenly few Edelman as a low-ceiling play. Edelman was off to a fast start in his ninth game as well, before going down with an injury. He started fast in the 2016 season as well, with 13 catches in six quarters. But once Jimmy Garoppolo was injured midway through Week 2, the Patriots pass offense (and Edelman’s production) ground to a halt. All of that is set to change with the return of Tom Brady, who will be fired up after serving a 4-game suspension. When both Brady and Edelman are healthy, Edelman will always be a top cash-game option. The health concerns surrounding Rob Gronkwoski’s hamstring only add to the appeal of Edelman, should be the go-to target for Brady. He is an especially strong play in Week 5 due to his depressed price after suffering through a couple bad weeks with rookie Jacoby Brissett helming the offense.
Tight End
Greg Olsen ($5,000) Olsen was struggling through a miserable game against Atlanta (no catches through the first three quarters) until Derek Anderson came in. Over the final 13 minutes of the game, Olsen caught 6 passes for 76 yards, a touchdown and a 2-point conversion. In two previous starts against Tampa Bay, Anderson targeted either Olsen or Kelvin Benjamin on 61 percent of his throws. Both averaged nearly 100 yards per game and Anderson threw for a respectable average of 253.5 yards in the two Tampa games. Somewhat counter-intuitively, Olsen actually looks like a better play should Cam Newton miss the Week 5 game. At just $550 more than Zach Ertz and $450 more than Kyle Rudolph, Olsen is a very strong cash play. He also has plenty of GPP upside.
Kyle Rudolph ($4,550) He has caught a touchdown pass in three straight games (every game Sam Bradford has started) and is clearly the go-to option in the red zone. Rudolph has also been a target hog, seeing at least seven targets in every game and averaging 8.25 targets per game. While Houston ranks first in DVOA against the tight end, the Texans also rank highly against opposing WR1s and WR2s. Given Rudolph’s talent, he may still be the least bad matchup for the Vikings passing game. Plus, at this pricing it will be hard for him to not hit his cash game value if he continues to see 8 targets per game.
Zach Ertz ($4,450) Detroit’s defense is awful across the board, but ranks especially poorly against opposing tight ends (29th in DVOA). Ertz was heavily involved in Week 1 despite playing through the rib and shoulder injury on the fifth play of the game. He hauled in 6 of his 7 targets for 58 yards. After the game, the severity of the injury was learned and Ertz missed Weeks 2 and 3. We have a sample size of just one game for Ertz playing with Wentz and under this new coaching staff, which brings some uncertainty to the table regarding his usage. We do however know that Ertz (along with Jordan Matthews) is one of the most talented pass catchers on the team and a go-to option for the offense. He should again see at least seven targets and given the fantastic matchup, is very likely to make good use of those targets. Despite relatively high ownership (17%, tops amongst tight ends) in Thursday GPPs, Ertz remains a worthwhile GPP play given how susceptible the Lions have been against opposing tight ends in the red zone (already 6 touchdowns allowed this season).
Martellus Bennett ($4,150) Much of the attention will be focused upon Rob Gronkowski and Julian Edelman with Tom Brady’s return. However, Bennett was often Brady’s go-to option in OTAs and training camp. He is also the one pass catcher in New England we know is healthy, with both Edelman (foot) and Gronkowski (hamstring) battling injuries. While Bennett is not going to be a sneaky play in GPPs (12% ownership in Thursday GPPs, 3rd highest amongst tight ends), he still has high enough upside and touchdown potential to make him worth rolling out in GPP stacks with Brady. At $300 less than Ertz, Bennett is also a solid option in cash games. Cleveland has no real pass rush threat, so Bennett will not be tasked with serving as a sixth offensive tackle, like he was against Arizona’s dangerous front seven.
Defense
Buffalo ($2,700) A change at offensive coordinator has inexplicably led to massive improvement for the Bills defense. In the two weeks since Rex Ryan ousted Greg Roman, the Bills have allowed just 18 total points, sacked the opposing quarterback 8 times and generated 6 turnovers. While the long West Coast trip and fact that Buffalo is a slight underdog are slight red flags, the matchup against a mediocre Rams matchup and the bargain-basement pricing are enough to make the Bills the premier cash-game play in Week 5. The Rams offense is 31st in offensive DVOA. They have been able to generate almost nothing on the ground with Todd Gurley, which has put everything on the shoulders of the shaky Case Keenum. In GPPs, Buffalo is going to be the most highly owned defense, so it makes sense to pivot to a lower-owned option in the same price range due to the high volatility in scoring at the position.
Minnesota ($3,350) It may be tough to fit the Vikings in at $3,350 and it makes good sense to save some valuable cap space ($650) by going down to Buffalo. However, if you do find yourself with some extra cap space after filling out the rest of your lineup, the Vikings are the top play of the week from a pure points perspective. The Vikings Defense has been dominant, ranking 3rd in DVOA. More importantly from a fantasy perspective, the aggressive scheme puts pressure on the quarterback (15 sacks) and leads to big plays (13 turnovers, 3 touchdowns and a safety). The Week 5 matchup against Houston sets up well. Minnesota is a 6-point home favorite in what should be a low-scoring game (40.5 game total). Brock Osweiler has thrown more interceptions (6) than touchdowns (5) and Houston’s offense ranks dead last in DVOA.
Tennessee ($2,750) In GPPs, hitting on a low-owned, low-priced defense provides a massive advantage over the field. The Titans fit into that category at just $2,750. Ownership should be in the 1% range, especially with Buffalo a popular option and $50 less. In addition, Tennessee has a number of positive indicators suggesting their viability as a strong GPP play. The Titans have been a solidly above-average defense according to DVOA, ranking 13th overall. On the other side, Miami is below average offensively, ranking 23rd. The Dolphins are fresh off of a miserable Thursday night performance against the Bengals. Miami hit on a long touchdown early, but was shutout the remainder of the game and had zero success stringing together drives. Miami has struggled to establish the running game (under 78 rushing yards per game), which should lead to the type of pass-heavy game plan that leads to sacks and turnovers. Lastly, weather could play a role. If this game kicks off as scheduled in Miami, it could be a wet field and sloppy conditions, which would make turnovers more likely.
