The Week 17 article is far and away the most difficult to write because there is so much news and information to sort through in terms of which teams will be the most motivated, which stars might rest and which players are likely to benefit most from all of the moving pieces. Thus, the format of this article will be a little bit different this week and focus mainly upon trying to parse the news and figure out who we can count on this weekend and who we can’t. It will start with a Do Not Draft list and also detail some players to approach with caution. The sections rankings players for Head-to-Head, 3-Team, 6-Team and 10-Team drafts are included per usual. So too are the positional rankings and breakdowns.
There is a real edge to be had for informed drafters this week. Many of the players listed below on the “Do Not Draft” list are still being drafted. Plus, some of the players on the “Approach with Caution” list are being drafted far too high.
Note: This article has been a lot of fun to write each week and I hope you’ve found it helpful. We get to continue the fun for a few more weeks, as Expert DRAFTing is sticking around for the NFL Playoffs.
Do Not Draft List
Ben Roethlisberger, LeVeon Bell and JuJu Smith-Schuster Pittsburgh right tackle reportedly stated that Ben Roethlisberger and LeVeon Bell wouldn’t play against Cleveland. Gilbert later tried to put the cat back in the bag, but the report makes sense as the Week 17 matchup only matters if the New York Jets pull off a massive upset in New England. Las Vegas seems to think the starters won’t play much, if at all, as the line has dropped 9 points from Steelers -16 to Steelers -7.
Todd Gurley, Jared Goff, Robert Woods and all Rams
The Rams have stated they are resting their top players. "Being locked into that third or fourth seed -- every single game is important -- but I think it will provide an opportunity for us to potentially get some guys healthier, rest them, give some other guys a chance to step up," McVay said Tuesday, via the team's official website. "How that affects the guys that are healthy that we want to be smart with is going to be determined as the week progresses. But it is one of those deals where I think you might see us rest some guys and use this week where, you don't ever take anything for granted, but knowing that you do have a home playoff game regardless of how things play out, this might provide an opportunity for us to get some guys healthy."
Hopkins is “expected to miss” the Week 17 matchup against the Colts due to an ankle injury. If you want to draft him late and take advantage of the replace feature, it’s not an awful strategy, but don’t expect to see Hopkins.
Zach Ertz, Jay Ajayi, Alshon Jeffery, Nick Foles and all Eagles
The Eagles are expected to treat their matchup with the Cowboys like a preseason game, which should mean a couple series for the starters before they head to the bench. These guys aren’t top options even if expected to play an entire game, so it’s an easy decision to pass with playing time an issue.
Travis Kelce, Kareem Hunt, Alex Smith and Tyreek Hill
The Chiefs are locked into the #4 seed and plan to start rookie quarterback Pat Mahomes. Andy Reid noted he would “sub in, according to position, some of the younger players … there are going to be some rotations going on.” Hunt, Hill and Kelce are especially dangerous to draft because they may end up active (no ability to swap out on Draft) and play extremely limited snaps.
Approach With Caution
The Cowboys have been noncommittal about how long the starters will play and it is easy to imagine Jason Garrett getting backups into the game in the second half. Playing the starters a full game against mostly Eagles backups seems like a no-win scenario for Dallas. That being said, there is a narrative angle to watch with Elliott just 120 rushing yards shy of 1,000 on the season. “I think that would be a cool goal since Elliott didn’t play for six games and then against Denver we didn’t really run the ball. We didn’t have any yards,” Pro Bowl right guard Zack Martin said. “So I think it would be cool to get to that 1,000 yards, but the guys have too much pride in the locker room to go out there and not give it their all.”
Melvin Gordon
Gordon may or may not be able to play. The biggest concern is that he ends up being active but doesn’t handle a full workload. He says he’s “good” and will “be ready on Sunday.” This is a must-win game for the Chargers, so it makes sense that Gordon would try to tough it out. We should get more information by late Friday afternoon but as of now, it is tough to draft Gordon in smaller Drafts. In 6-Team or larger Drafts, Gordon still has appeal due to the matchup. Plus, if he scratches completely, you can replace him with Brandon Oliver.
Doug Marrone is insistent that the starters will play and this game will be treated like a typical regular season game even though Jacksonville is locked into the #3 seed regardless of the outcome. We should take him at his word, as it does make some sense for the Jaguars to try to build some momentum for the postseason and this team has taken an “old school” approach to everything this season. However, we do have to be cognizant of Fournette’s health issues. If he comes off limping at all, even Marrone might see the wisdom in not risking further injury to his star offensive player in a meaningless game.
Head-to-Head Draft Rankings
1. Julio Jones
2. Keenan Allen
3. LeSean McCoy
4. Dion Lewis
5. Alvin Kamara
8. Cam Newton
9. Tom Brady
10. Mark Ingram
There is slightly more separation between the top two receivers and the rest of the pack at the position (especially given Michael Thomas’ hamstring injury) than there is between #1 and #4 at the running back position. Thus, Julio Jones and Keenan Allen are top priorities in must-win games and fantastic matchups.
3-Team Draft Rankings
1. LeSean McCoy
2. Dion Lewis
3. Alvin Kamara
4. Julio Jones
5. Keenan Allen
7. Mark Ingram
8. Kenyan Drake
10. A.J. Green
11. Alex Collins
12. T.Y. Hilton
13. Cam Newton
14. Tom Brady
15. Russell Wilson
We can still make the case for Julio Jones at 1.01 in 3-Team Drafts, but there is a bit of a tier drop at running back after the top-5. Thus, it makes more sense to try to lock in one of the top backs in the first round before turning to Jones and Allen as priority targets in round 2.
The top-3 quarterbacks are all grouped tightly in terms of projections, floor and upside. Plus, the order these guys go off the board is going to be different in every draft. I’m content to wait until the final round and take whichever is still available.
6-Team Draft Rankings
1. LeSean McCoy
2. Dion Lewis
3. Alvin Kamara
4. Julio Jones
5. Keenan Allen
6. Mark Ingram
7. Kenyan Drake
10. A.J. Green
11. Alex Collins
12. Melvin Gordon
13. Derrick Henry
14. T.Y. Hilton
15. Adam Thielen
16. Larry Fitzgerald
17. Carlos Hyde
18. Ezekiel Elliott
19. Cam Newton
20. Tom Brady
21. Russell Wilson
22. Philip Rivers
23. Doug Baldwin
26. Marvin Jones
27. Brandin Cooks
28. Marquise Goodwin
29. Drew Brees
30. Matthew Stafford
Running back gets especially interesting in 6-Team Drafts this week. The depth is actually pretty good. Lower ranked options like Christian McCaffrey and Leonard Fournette are very talented and have solid matchups. However, we are also getting into big enough drafts where we have to strongly consider the pros and cons of some of the backs on our “Approach with Caution” list. Melvin Gordon is the most attractive because he is at least in a must-win game, so we don’t have to worry about him only playing a half (unless he re-aggravates his injury). Plus, if he ends up being unable to play, we can sub in another top option (perhaps Brandon Oliver) to replace him. Ezekiel Elliott and Leonard Fournette are much trickier because we are only guessing when it comes to playing time. Use your own judgment there, but ideally I am trying to lock in a pair of running backs earlier in the draft with no playing time concerns so I don’t have to worry about these problems.
10-Team Draft Rankings
1. LeSean McCoy
2. Dion Lewis
3. Alvin Kamara
4. Mark Ingram
5. Kenyan Drake
6. Alex Collins
7. Melvin Gordon
9. Julio Jones
10. Keenan Allen
11. Rob Gronkowski
12. Michael Thomas
13. Carlos Hyde
14. Ezekiel Elliott
17. A.J. Green
18. T.Y. Hilton
19. Jamaal Williams
20. Devonta Freeman
21. C.J. Anderson
22. Adam Thielen
23. Larry Fitzgerald
24. Doug Baldwin
25. Marvin Jones
26. Cam Newton
27. Tom Brady
28. Russell Wilson
29. Philip Rivers
30. Brandin Cooks
31. Marquise Goodwin
32. Mike Evans
33. Stefon Diggs
34. Drew Brees
35. Matthew Stafford
36. Kirk Cousins
37. Jimmy Garoppolo
38. Jameis Winston
39. Matt Ryan
40. Demaryius Thomas
41. Jarvis Landry
42. Frank Gore
43. Marshawn Lynch
44. Latavius Murray
45. Jerick McKinnon
46. Samaje Perine
47. Robby Anderson
48. Randall Cobb
49. Josh Gordon
50. Josh Doctson
As is typical in 10-Team Drafts, we have to make running backs the top priority because it is the shallowest position. There is a tier drop after C.J. Anderson (RB15) to the next group of runners and ideally you can lock up your two running backs before having to dip into that lowest tier of RB16 and below.
Waiting on quarterback is a fantastic option this week. There are 10 passers in relatively strong spots and nobody with an obviously fantastic matchup, so there is no fear of being left at a major disadvantage by waiting until the final round.
With so many top wide receivers and tight ends resting, the depth at the wide receiver/tight end position dries up rather quickly. If you wait too long, you are likely going to be forced to rely on an awful quarterback to get your WR2 the ball (Paxton Lynch, Bryce Petty, Brett Hundley, DeShone Kizer, etc.).
Quarterback Rankings and Breakdowns
- Cam Newton Since Week 4, Newton is averaging over 22 fantasy points per game. His consistent production as a runner (at least 5.0 rushing points in 11-of-13 games) gives him a surprisingly high floor and he’s scored at least 15.5 points in 7 straight games. He also has a nearly unmatched ceiling, with 3 games of 30+ points. Newton and the Panthers have a lot to play for, with an outside shot at earning a first-round bye.
- Tom Brady The Patriots need a win to secure the all-important #1 seed, which could be huge with a potential Steelers rematch looming. Las Vegas has the Patriots installed as 15.5-point favorites with an implied team total of 29.5 points, which indicates they expect to the starters to play the whole way.
- Russell Wilson Wilson has cooled off in recent weeks and has a tough matchup against a solid Arizona defense that pitched a shutout at home last week. In 11 career matchups against Arizona, Wilson has thrown for more than 240 yards just twice. This is a must-win spot for the Seahawks and he has a solid floor since he is responsible for nearly every Seahawks touchdown. However, this could be a low-scoring affair with Drew Stanton not likely to push Wilson to play aggressively.
- Philip Rivers The Chargers need to win and get some help to get into the playoffs. In a week in which we can question the motivation level for many teams, Rivers is one of the safest options on the slate. Rivers also has plenty of upside against the Raiders mediocre pass defense. He has thrown for 310+ yards and 3+ touchdowns against Oakland three times since 2014.
- Drew Brees The Saints need to get the win to lock up the AFC South and secure a home game in the first round of the playoffs. It is a prime matchup for the passing offense to tune up for the postseason. The Buccaneers rank 30th in pass defense DVOA. Brees has thrown for 250+ yards in 13 straight matchups against Tampa Bay.
- Matthew Stafford The matchup is fantastic for Stafford against an awful Green Bay secondary. The major concern is motivation and playing time after the Lions were eliminated from the playoff race last week. Stafford sounds confident about playing a full game: “I’m the quarterback here,” Stafford said, via Kyle Meinke of mlive.com. “This is what I work hard for. I work hard for opportunities to go out there and play on Sundays. I don’t care what the situation is. You get your body ready. You get your mind ready to go out there and play. You go out there and play.
- Kirk Cousins This is a sneaky good spot for Cousins. The New York Giants are in turmoil with an interim coach, player suspended and their top two defensive backs both on injured reserve. A win could cost the Giants the valuable #2 overall draft pick in a draft where finding a franchise quarterback is a major priority. There is little incentive for the Giants to win. Meanwhile, Washington is focused upon getting to .500 and Kirk Cousins is trying to go out on a positive note in what could be his last game for the Redskins.
- Jimmy GaroppoloHe has won his first four starts and his 1,250 yards passing are the most by any player in his first four starts for a franchise. Since taking over, Garoppolo ranks fourth in yards passing per game (312.5) and third in yards per attempt (8.7).
- Jameis Winston
- Matt Ryan
Running Back Rankings and Breakdowns
- LeSean McCoy The Buffalo Bills absolutely must win or their season is over. While there may be some scoreboard watching, it’s hard to imagine a scenario where the starters don’t play the whole game. McCoy should get all the carries he can handle against Miami. In the two teams’ previous meeting this season, McCoy posted 96 total yards and scored twice. With nearly all of the top running backs sitting out this week, McCoy is one of the few elite players who safely projects for 20+ touches.
- Dion Lewis Lewis saw 29 touches last week, rushed for 129 yards, caught 5 passes and scored twice. He is the only fully healthy back on the Patriots right now and should be the bell cow again in a big Week 17 game that New England needs to lock up home-field in the playoffs. The Patriots have an implied team total of 29.8 points and Lewis should have another big game.
- Alvin Kamara Kamara gets the nod over Ingram in this spot. In the previous meeting against Tampa, Mark Ingram was quiet while Kamara had a monster game. Kamara had 152 total yards, 2 touchdowns and 6 receptions (30.2 points).
- Mark Ingram While Kamara had more success in the previous matchup and is potentially in position to benefit more from Michael Thomas’ gimpy hamstring, Ingram has a strong projection as well. He has averaged a touchdown per game since Adrian Peterson was traded.
- Kenyan Drake Drake had been on fire before struggling at Kansas City last week. Over the past seven games, Drake has averaged 97.9 scrimmage yards per game. He has a great shot to end the season on a high note against a Buffalo defense that has struggled mightily against the run. Since Week 8, the Bills have allowed over 140 rushing yards on average to opposing running backs.
- Alex Collins Collins is in a great spot this week with the Ravens favored by 9.5 points at home against Cincinnati. If Vontaze Burfict remains out with a shoulder injury for the Bengals, it is a major boost to the Ravens running game. Cincinnati is already missing two other starting linebackers (Nick Vigil and Kevin Minter). The only concern with Collins is that the Ravens had four backs active last week and you have to worry about Javorius Allen vulturing touchdowns and Danny Woodhead soaking up targets.
- Melvin Gordon Without health concerns, Gordon would rank as a top-3 option on the slate. The ankle injury is very problematic. Not only are we worried about him missing the game entirely, but the risk of re-injury is high. Plus, the Chargers could choose to activate Gordon but limit his touches.
- Derrick Henry It looks like DeMarco Murray will be out with a 3rd-degree sprained MCL. However, it is not certain as Murray has surprised and played through injuries at other times this season. Even without Murray, David Fluellen could steal much of the 3rd-down work from Henry. Still, in a must-win home game against Jacksonville, it is easy to like Henry this week. He should see 20+ carries and has a good shot at finding the end zone.
- Carlos Hyde Hyde has scored multiple touchdowns in two of his last three games against the Rams. Los Angeles is looking to rest some players to get ready for the playoffs. Amongst the likely candidates to be inactive are starting linebackers Alec Ogletree and Mark Barron, who are nursing injuries. It is hard to see other defensive starters getting much playing time even if active in a game the Rams are not trying to win. Hyde could have a big game on the ground if San Francisco plays to win and he continues to see 20+ touches (42 total over the past two weeks).
- Ezekiel Elliott Elliott is 120 yards shy of 1,000 on the season and we could see Dallas prioritize the achievement due to having nothing else to play for. The concern is how much Elliott will play after the Eagles switch to their backups. The tendency if one team is treating it as a preseason game is for the other team to follow suit to some extent.
- Christian McCaffrey
- Leonard Fournette
- Jamaal Williams
- Devonta Freeman
- C.J. Anderson
- Frank Gore
- Marshawn Lynch
- Latavius Murray
- Jerick McKinnon
- Samaje Perine
Wide Receiver Rankings and Breakdowns
1. Julio Jones Jones is in a fantastic spot against a Carolina defense that has been getting torched in the passing game and by opposing wide receivers in recent weeks. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 302.6 yards over the Panthers' last 5 games, with 280+ in 4 of them and multiple touchdowns in 3. Since Week 9, the Panthers have allowed five 100-yard games to opposing wide receivers (including Julio Jones in the previous meeting) and a whopping 10 receiving touchdowns to receivers.
2. Keenan Allen Allen has seen at least 8 targets in every game since Week 11 and should again see a heavy workload in a must-win game for the Chargers.
3. Rob Gronkowski The Patriots need a win to lock up home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs. With a number of pass catchers likely to be out (Chris Hogan, James White, and Rex Burkhead), Gronkowski is a near-lock to see heavy targets. He has produced four-straight huge fantasy games and could feast again against the Jets who he put up a 6-83-2 line against in Week 6.
4. Michael Thomas The matchup is amazing for Thomas against a Tampa Bay pass defense that ranks 30th in DVOA against the pass and has been shredded by opposing WR1s this season. Plus, the Saints will be highly motivated with a win putting them at home for the first round of the playoffs. However, the hamstring injury is a major concern for Thomas. He saw season lows in snaps, routes run and targets last week and has been limited in practice. He has to be considered early in drafts due to his upside but don’t overlook the risk here due to the injury.
5. A.J. Green Green will get overlooked with the Bengals implied team total of just 15.3 points. Do not forget about him. The Ravens defense has had major trouble against opposing WR1s since Jimmy Smith went down with injury. Plus, Green always seems to show up against the Ravens. In the last four seasons, he has 6 touchdowns in 6 games against Baltimore and has averaged 113 receiving yards per game.
6. T.Y. Hilton Hilton has dominated the Texans in his career, averaging over 4 PPG more against Houston than his career averages. In 11 career matchups, he averages 5.5 receptions, 101.5 receiving yards and 0..8 touchdowns per game.
7. Adam Thielen
9. Doug Baldwin
10. Marvin Jones
11. Brandin Cooks
12. Marquise Goodwin
13. Mike Evans
14. Stefon Diggs
15. Demaryius Thomas
16. Jarvis Landry
17. Robby Anderson
18. Randall Cobb
19. Josh Gordon
20. Josh Doctson
