Now that we are closer to the end of the season than we are to the beginning, now feels like an appropriate time to take a look back at some rookie evaluations Reception Perception held coming into the season. We’ll refer back to the data logged on the 2016 NFL Draft Prospects this offseason and see who is matching or going off course of the potential projections Reception Perception may have had for them.
This will be Part 1 of this rookie review, where we will look back at the first 11 of the 21 charted prospects in alphabetical order. Make sure to come back next week to review the last 10 rookie receivers the series studied.
Aaron Burbidge, San Francisco 49ers
Even in a lackluster receiving corps, Burbidge has not been able to make much of dent in the pass-catching rotation. He has, however, been a special-teams player and that gets him a jersey on game days. That ability will help keep Burbidge on the roster and in the mix for playing time if injuries hit.
Burbidge has just two catches on the year and has not played more than 15 offensive snaps in any game. Nothing in Burbidge’s Reception Perception profiled painted the picture of a future NFL contributor. It looks like he’s well on the way to carving out a role on this roster, but doesn’t need to be owned in dynasty leagues.
Braxton Miller, Houston Texans
It looked like Miller would be on our radars sooner than later when he ran as the clear No. 3 and primary slot receiver in the preseason. He went out for over 50 plays in Week 1. However, injuries slowed his already steep learning curve in just his second full-season as a receiver. He does appear to be gaining some momentum as he caught three passes in Houston’s last game (a season-high) and Jaelen Strong will miss about a month with his own injury.
Houston has not gone out of their way to design touches for Miller, with just one carry and three kick returns on the year. The Texans aren’t exactly the most fertile ground to grow productive pass-catchers at the moment, either, with major issues under center. Miller’s Reception Perception outlook at least held some optimism he could make the transition with an above average success rate vs. man coverage. Yet, it’s no surprise he isn’t tearing it up yet, especially with an injury complicating matters.
Charone Peake, New York Jets
His fall to the seventh-round was considered something of a shock, and Peake has already made an impact for the Jets. With injuries to their other wide receivers, Peake has played an average of 26 snaps per game since Week 3. He had one game with 10 targets against Arizona, as well. However, for the season, he has just 11 catches for 100 yards.
There appears to be some future for the Peake with New York, and he’ll continue to get work with the Jets being a heavy three and four-wide offense. He should be on the end of benches in dynasty formats, even if he is likely to remain quite the rest of this year. With Eric Decker’s future uncertain and Brandon Marshall aging, the Jets will need players like Peake and Devin Smith to show they can hang on the roster.
Corey Coleman, Cleveland Browns
Corey Coleman stepped in right away and was a big contributor for the Browns. Unfortunately, after his Week 2 breakout game with over 100 yards and two scores, he suffered and hand injury and missed multiple weeks. Coleman returned to a full deployment right away, playing over 90 percent of the Browns snaps in Week 9, but only has six catches for 58 yards in his two games back.
The future is still quite bright for Coleman, whose Reception Perception profile showed nearly top of the class scores across the board. The only issue is that now he has to contend with Terrelle Pryor, who Reception Perception confirmed is 100 percent for real, for the right to be the Browns true No. 1 target. That was a challenge many did not expect for Coleman, but it doesn’t ruin his future prospects too much if at all.
De’Runnya Wilson, Free Agent
Even before his 4.85 40-yard dash at the NFL Scouting Combine, Reception Perception painted a troublesome outlook for Wilson. He didn’t score at the league average for any success rate vs. coverage metrics and his contested catch rate was the lowest among the charted receivers. He didn’t catch on with a team after the draft, but did flirt with the Bears practice squad last month. Wilson was also arrested in September.
De’Marcus Robinson, Kansas City Chiefs
Reception Perception showed us that Robinson was talented, with high-end after the catch scores, but painfully raw. He didn’t check in at the league average in any success rate vs. coverage metric and his route scores overall were poor. Robinson has yet to make an appearance with the Chiefs offense and looks like he was passed up by fellow rookie Tyreek Hill, who Reception Perception did not cover this offseason. Robinson is way off the radar right now.
Josh Doctson, Washington
Reception Perception loved Doctson, with top scores against man, zone and press coverage. He was also the only receiver who scored above the class average on every single route on the route tree and also had far and away the best contested catch conversion rate (85 percent). Unfortunately, Doctson’s rookie season never got off the tarmac, as an Achilles injury dogged him for months before the team place him on IR after just two catches.
Interestingly enough, Doctson’s outlook is still rather strong for the future despite not playing. Both Pierre Garcon and especially DeSean Jackson have don’t little with the opportunities given to them this year. Doctson will get every chance once he’s healthy to prove he can be the alpha of this receiver group along with an improved Jamison Crowder. Sniff around his likely frustrated owner in dynasty.
Kenny Lawler, Free Agent
After getting drafted by the Seattle Seahawks in the seventh round and hanging around the roster through the early portion of the season, Lawler was released just a few days ago. He could resurface with their practice squad, which would change his outlook. For now, he remains without a team. There were some positives in his Reception Perception profile, with a 72.7 percent contested catch conversion rate and 67.2 percent success rate vs. man coverage, so perhaps it is not curtains for his career.
Keyarris Garrett, Carolina Panthers
The nation’s leader in receiving yards last season, Garrett was a favorite sleeper of many. Reception Perception was right there, too, as he was the “unicorn” of the group. He was a letdown for the Panthers in training camp and the preseason and never threatened Corey Brown or Brenton Bersin for jobs. Garrett is currently on the team’s practice squad and will need a big 2017 offseason to get back on the dynasty radar. He has legitimate talent if he ever can truly hone it, so keep him on speed dial in deep formats.
Laquon Treadwell, Minnesota Vikings
One of the biggest disappointments of the first half of the season, Laquon Treadwell has just one catch to his name this year and was a healthy scratch in several games. It’s hard to figure out what’s gone wrong here, as the Vikings talked about installing routes just for him in their playbook and the team needs more threats in the passing game. Treadwell didn’t look good in the preseason, though, and gave little reason for the team to make room for him. This is a big shock, as not only did he have the second-highest contested catch conversion rate in the class, Reception Perception also seemed to ease concerns about his ability to separate with a top-five success rate vs. man coverage score.
If there’s one bit of peace of mind, we can take solace in its that the Vikings brought several other rookies laong slowly under Mike Zimmer. That includes 2015 rookie Stefon Diggs, who has been one of the NFL’s biggest breakout stars this year. Of course, Diggs was a fifth-rounder who started cooking around Week 5 last year, whereas Treadwell was a first-round pick. There’s still plenty of hope of hope for the future, but there’s not putting lipstick on the pig of Treadwell’s start to his NFL career.
Leonte Carroo, Miami Dolphins
Carroo had all the makings of strong Reception Perception sleeper with above average scores against press coverage and winning contested catches. He’s a favorite of many both in the film-watching and data-driven community. He has not had much of a chance to make an impact, as he has just two catches on the season and both of them came in Week 1. That’s despite DeVante Parker’s inconsistent play and Kenny Stills being banged up last week. With the Dolphins quickly transitioning to a run-based team with the full-on emergence of Jay Ajayi, don’t expect to see Miami spread the field as much going forward. That means we probably won’t get many more glimpses at Carroo unless injuries set in.
