The statistics used in this column are those acquired from the Reception Perception methodology for evaluating wide receivers. Use the #ReceptionPerception tag on Twitter to follow all the analysis from the series.
For the first time this season we will take a look back at one of the rookie from last year who underwent the Reception Perception charting. Jamison Crowder went under the microscope in an in-depth look at the wide receiver corps in Washington back in May.
While Crowder’s scores were overall quite solid, not much in that initial outlook pointed to a player that would force his way into sizable volume. Crowder is on pace to see 114 targets this season, and collect 996 receiving yards. He’s scored four touchdowns so far and is season is on the upswing, as he has 100 yards in back to back games with 16 catches between them.
Yet, again, while Reception Perception pointed to a solid player coming along in Crowder, he was largely expected to fall behind DeSean Jackson, Pierre Garcon and Josh Doctson in terms of weekly relevance. Doctson is on IR and never made much of an impact while struggling with injuries when he actually did play, but even so, Crowder’s emergence has been legitimate. So, let’s take a look at Crowder’s charts from last year and some data from his Week 8 game against the Bengals to see what has changed for the young slot receiver in the last year.
When you peruse his route percentages charts, you see that his route assignments this year have not changed much from what he did as a rookie. The slant and the flat route are well represented in both charts, while the vertical routes all fall below the NFL average in terms of usage.
One route where Crowder is seeing more action is on the “other” pattern, which jumps from under six up to 13 percent this season. Much of Crowder’s “other” is comprised of option routes where he has the choice to break inside or outside, or will just reverse course to create separation inside after taking the nickel corner towards the sideline. This is a useful part of the Washington passing game, and makes for easy throws for Kirk Cousins. Crowder saw plenty of usage on this part of the route tree when Jordan Reed missed their Week 7 game, and he also cannibalized some of Reed’s red zone target because of this early in the season.
Here’s where we really start to see a jump for Crowder. His route-by-route separation scores are drastically improved from his 2015 marks.
One route that stands out with authority is the slant success rate vs. coverage score. Despite seeing similar usage this year as he did last, his score is up from an overall poor 64.6 percent success rate to an elite level 92.3. Now, this is just one game, but Crowder has been much better at creating separation in the congested middle of the field portions than he was last year. His improvement on the slant patterns is a big reason why he’s ascending. His success rate on flat routes has also maintained its well above-average mark from last year.
Elsewhere on the route tree, we see Crowder’s vertical scores improving, as well. Washington has done more with Crowder than just making him a short-area slot receiver. Especially when Reed was out, but we saw it again in Week 8, the team has him run nines and posts up the seams of defenses. Crowder knifes through zone coverages on these routes, and it’s helped him make more big plays than the traditional possession, water bug archetype he fits in to.
When you look at his SRVC scores overall, we see a massive noticeable difference. Crowder’s best mark in 2015 was his league average success rate vs. zone coverage. His scores are noticeably better in this small sample from 2016, where he’s scoring above the NFL average when facing man and zone coverage.
Crowder still checked in under the NFL average for success rate vs. press coverage. Given his size, it’s hard to expect him to ever be a player that defeats tight physical coverage off the line of scrimmage. However, with the role he plays and where he runs his routes, he won’t face much press and only dealt with it on three routes against the Bengals.
More often than not, Crowder will face zone coverage. That was the case in his 2015 sample when he faced 139 attempts against zone to 101 attempts vs. man. It holds up this year as a whopping 34 of his routes came against zone coverage and only 12 when running at man coverage.
Since he will primarily square off with zone defenders in his career, it’s great to see his success rate vs. coverage score jump from a league-average figure to an 82.4 percent. His output against the Bengals is much more in line with what high-end slot receivers like Randall Cobb produce. It’s also nice ot see him beat man coverage with more frequency. His 55 percent success rate as a rookie wasn’t good enough to project him for major volume. Yet, it’s clear he has taken a step forward and beat the Bengals solid corners in man coverage at a just above average rate.
The overall apparent upward trend in Jamison Crowder’s Reception Perception success rate scores, while seeing similar route assignments is great for his future prospects. Sometimes we see receivers of this archetype come in and produce right away, but level off early in their careers. With Crowder, that does not appear to be the case. His jump in efficiency when it comes to getting open, as quantified by Reception Perception, shows he took another step this offseason.
With the way Washington is set up this year, it’s unlikely that Crowder will see the volume needed for a slot receiver to bring consistent week-to-week production. As primarily a short route runner with only a hint of big play potential, he needs to see more than seven targets per game. However, his long-term prospects are looking great right now. Not only is he in sync with the team’s quarterback and the way Washington approaches the passing game, but he could easily be a starter for this group next year. DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon don’t have deal with the team beyond this year, and neither is doing much to show why the organization should rush out to grant them one. In fact, Crowder is out-producing them, and leads Washington in receiving yards and touchdowns.
By the time 2017 dawns, Crowder should be the starter alongside a hopefully integrated Josh Doctson at X-receiver and working the middle of the field with No. 1 target Jordan Reed. In that role, Crowder should easily top 120 targets in a season and in one of the NFL’s most pass-heavy offenses, he could push for north of 130. With that type of volume in tow, Crowder would have a chance for reliable weekly production as he looks to show the masses he’s one of the better slot receivers around. As it stands today, it does not appear the public is taking that potential outcome into account.