Note to re-draft owners: While you should try some dynasty leagues, this article does have re-draft takes for each players.
Do you post dynasty rankings? This is a common question for the past couple of years. I play in twice as many dynasty leagues as I do re-drafts, but I'm taking a hiatus from posting rankings.
There are several reasons why. Chief among them is that I have some ideas about ranking players in these formats much different than I have in the past and I don't have time to apply them. At the moment the best I can offer in terms of my most recent strategic thinking on dynasty formats are these two articles from last year:
For now, I make it a point to share dynasty implications about players in my articles, and at least a couple of times a year, do a "check-up," around the league. This week's post is one of those check-ups.
It is not a comprehensive list of dynasty options, but I will list dozens of players whose 2014 performances have registered something in my cobwebb-filled mousetrap thus far.
Needle Moving
Regardless of what the box score says, these players look like prospects with long-term value. These prospects range from "must-buys," to options worth monitoring weekly until they earn an opportunity to become a consistent asset. If you need me to tell you to buy Sammy Watkins then you need more help than I an offer you here.
(Buy Now) WR Martavis Bryant: I was higher on Bryant than many this spring. At the same time, my outlook for him in the RSP was spot-on:
Pre-NFL Draft Fantasy Advice: My guess is that Bryant will be a second round pick in drafts before May. If someone wants to trade into the later half of the first round to grab Bryant, I’d consider making the deal. If Bryant falls to the late second or third round, I wouldn’t hesitate to grab him.
Post-NFL Draft Fantasy Advice (Ranked No.7 WR and 10th fantasy player overall): Bryant was considered a project by many because he's young and had to learn the hard way about applying himself. However, he can make contested catches, he adjusts well to the ball, and has good speed. The Steelers see him as a potential starter—this year—opposite Antonio Brown. Markus Wheaton is a fine player, but Bryant will push the second-year receiver for playing time. I don’t think Bryant will earn the starting job this year, but he'll make strides.
This is a promising fit for Bryant. I'm a big fan of Wheaton, but if Bryant plays to his potential then size wins out. Of course, Bryant and Wheaton could eventually be good enough to play outside and move Brown inside with Lance Moore as depth. There will be a lot of three-receiver sets due to the Steelers' penchant for a one-back offense, so Bryant has a nice opportunity to develop.
We're at the mid-season point and Bryant is playing his way into the rotation as a major contributor and often ahead of Wheaton. Moreover, Bryant's game has improved considerably since this point last season at Clemson.
Bryant ran some routes inside the hash at Clemson, but the frequency of those patterns was low. This week, Bryant ran two quality routes in the middle of the field that helped his team. The first was a dig route under the zone and he made the catch in traffic for a first down. Then he scored on a stop route in the end zone where he set up the corner playing outside position with a subtle, but very effective, outside move. Bryant finished the play with a sudden stop and good position to take the target.
More impressive was Bryant's work against physical coverage. Bryant caught the longest completion for the Steelers this year when he beat his man on streak up the left sideline in the second quarter. Despite the corner hand-checking Bryant after the receiver's receiver, Bryant did not open his shoulders to the corner or get distracted by the contact. The rookie made the catch over the shoulder look easy.
In contrast, Colts' rookie Donte Moncrief, who had a nice day, allowed the hand-checking of a Steeler's corner to keep the receiver's shoulder's open to the inside. Moncrief also continued engaging the corner after it wasn't necessary, and the combined position the receiver gave up and the hand fighting slowing Moncrief down allowed the trailing defender to make a diving play to knock the ball away as it arrived to the receiver's inside shoulder at the Steelers' five. This should have been an easy touchdown, but Moncrief lacked the savvy that Bryant displayed on a very similar route.
Bryant also showed two good release moves that he didn't display at Clemson. The first was a three-step release where he stacked the defender (getting even hip-to-hip) and finished with a downward chop to the defender's forearm on a fade in the end zone for Bryant's second score of the day. Bryant's technique was even better on a slant where he got wide open with a running start in the right flat, but he dropped the ball. If the rookie catches this pass, he had a great chance of adding a 77-yard score to what was already a 2-touchdown afternoon.
Ben Roethlisberger has never had a receiver with height, speed, and hands during his NFL career. Bryant may not be as talented as A.J. Green, but he's not so far awayon the talent spectrum that we shouldn't discount future seasons with double-digit touchdown from the rookie.
(Hold/Buy) WR Donte Moncrief: Despite contrasting Moncrief's mistake with Bryant's success on a vertical route, the rookie from Ole Miss has the speed, strength, and toughness to achieve what Dwayne Bowe has done at his best. The play of the day for Moncrief in Pittsburgh was a leaping catch up the right sideline where he got free of the corner and made a leaping grab and took a hard shot from Troy Polamalu to maintain possession in the end zone.
I could nitpick Moncrief trapping the ball to his chest and not attacking the target with his hands away from his body, he was first to leap for the ball and had clear separation on the cornerback. Moncrief also caught a hook route and maintain possession after contact. This is a skill that Moncrief flashed at Ole Miss, but he was not as consistent as some of the top prospects in this class.
Moncrief makes a decent dynasty buy, because neither Reggie Wayne nor Hakeem Nicks will be around in 2-3 seasons. He has a shot at providing flex-play production down the stretch because the Colts are wisely targeting him on routes where he can use his speed and earn easy separation. There was a crossing route in this contest where Moncrief got open due to the trips formation that forced the Steelers defense to pay more attention to Dwayne Allen and Hakeem Nicks while T.Y. Hilton ran off the defense in the flat. This allowed Moncrief to break the route into a wide-open space and use his speed unfettered for a nice gain.
Until Moncrief displays more skill on timing patterns, hold steady or buy-low, but don't break the bank on him as a future WR1 or WR2.
(Buy Now) RB Tre Mason: All three Rams runners are capable fantasy producers in the right situation, but Mason's burst and agility are a in a class above Zac Stacy and Benny Cunningham. There was a cutback run in the first quarter of the Chiefs game that Mason executed with ease and I doubt his teammates could have done the same. Pass protection remains Mason's greatest long-term project. If he can earn his team's trust by next summer, he has all the tools to become a strong fantasy RB2. Don't count on Mason earning the lion's share of the carries in St. Louis this year, because his teammates are too good to keep off the field in their own right.
(Buy Now) RB Mark Ingram: Last night's Packers game--and much of this season--is what most of us draftniks saw from Ingram at Alabama. The burst and high-end agility is back. As the game wore on, Ingram's skill at setting up defenses on a carry-to-carry basis was more apparent. Ingram's 172 yards on 24 carries is the type of stat line that should be more common for the runner, because Ingram thrives off volume.
Notice I didn't say "Saints runner," when referring to Ingram. I don't believe he'll be back in New Orleans next year. Ingram will be 25 in 2015 and has plenty left in the tank for a team to employ as its meal ticket for the next 3-4 seasons. Marshawn Lynch joined the Seahawks at 25 and the Falcons added Michael Turner when the former Charger was 26.
I'd argue that there are benefits to making a third or fourth-year veteran a feature back for a few years over a rookie. It often takes 1-2 years for a rookie to develop into the player that he's capable of becoming. Why wait that long, especially if the position has a short shelf-life?
I wouldn't be surprised if Ingram winds up on a contender as the feature back while that contender drafts a young player to develop behind him. It might be a difficult deal to make at a reasonable cost this week, but I'd consider paying for Ingram if I can get him at high-end flex or low-end RB2 value.
(Hold/Buy) RB Jeremy Hill: The Bengals rookie is a little better than I thought. I wrote about this in an earlier column, but it's worth mentioning again. Hill looks a little more agile (like his underclassmen tape) than his senior tape. Cincinnati is also confident with using him in the passing game. I don't think Hill has a chance to overtake Giovani Bernard unless there's a major injury. Yet, a series of minor injuries can equal a major injury in the eyes of a coaching staff, because it eventually creates the perception that the player isn't reliable. Hill as low-end RB1 potential for fantasy owners when he's earning the majority of the carries and that's his current long-term fantasy upside on a team that has a good, but not great offensive line.
(Hold/Buy) WR Allen Robinson: The Jaguars receiver is getting open deep and looking comfortable around the ball. Blake Bortles is aggressive and Robinson is consistently in position to make plays. I don't think he'll be a special player, but a solid WR3 with WR2 upside is definitely possible. He'll need to break more tackles as an open field runner, which has never been his game. He'll also have to demonstrate that extra layer of hand-eye of coordination on errant throws. He dropped a wide-open post route in the end zone against the Dolphins on Sunday. Bortles' pass was wobbly, high, and a difficult target, but a WR1 makes his play.
(Hold/Buy) WR Paul Richardson Jr: The Seahawks' rookie is getting fed a little more each week. He's making plays on perimeter routes, and defenses are playing enough cushion to respect his deep speed. However, Richardson is also make quality catches on back-shoulder fade routes and done it on third-down situations. His releaes need to get better, but he's making steady progress. He'll need to turn it up a notch to be a factor in re-draft leagues, but I'd buy-low in dynasty formats if your competition was expecting instant impact production.
Needle Steady
Some of these players I'd buy in deeper leagues in package deals, but I wouldn't value them as starters. These players can help your team if they earn an opportunity, but they're not players to build around. The reasons have to do with lack of high-end talent or they require a specialized offensive scheme to maximize their high-end skills.
(Constant Monitor) RB Benny Cunningham: The UDFA from Middle Tennessee State lacks Mason's high-end burst, but he does all the things that Mason needs to refine. At the same time, Cunningham has earned the trust of the Rams coaches as a red zone runner and receiver from the backfield. Labeling his work after contact as a ballcarrier as "second effort," might be a borderline insult to Cunningham's motor. His vision is also underrated, especially in the open field. Cunningham may never earn a long-term NFL starting gig, but he's the type of runner who may be good for flex-play, bye-week attention for the next few years. Tim Hightower was a top-35 RB for the first three years of his career before an ACL tear ended his career (thus far) during his fourth season. Cunningham has the ability to command this type of value for a while.
(Hold/Monitor) RB Denard Robinson: The former Michigan quarterback is growing into a competent NFL running back. Note that I did not say "starting RB," despite consecutive weeks of fantasy viability. After studying these two games, Robinson has flashed a number of positives as a runner that couldn't be presumed about his game after a college career as a quarterback.
Robinson is a decisive runner, which is a big compliment to a player new to this position. He flashes some skill at a pressing a lane and cutting back to set up his blocks. Better yet, he didn't attempt any risky cutbacks in the past two weeks. A good example came in the Dolphins' game where Jacksonville ran inside zone with the guard washing down the line, but the defense did a good job filling the intended gap for Robinson to access.
Because this gap was on the weak side of the line, an attempt to bounce the play to the strong side would be like running a sweep where the defensive line spilled the play outside and got penetration into the backfield. The cutback to the weak-side edge was also nonexistent. Despite Robinson's speed and agility, he dropped his pads and took the tough yards for a minimal gain. It's the kind of maturity that I have seen repeatedly from Robinson and it's one of the reasons he's earning consistent looks when a player like C.J. Spiller couldn't outclass Fred Jackson.
Robinson has also flashes nimble feet and body adjustment to get small in tight spaces, squeezing a few extra yards in tight gaps that narrowed as he entered the hole. Although Robinson is more Chris Johnson and Ronnie Hillman in size, he's showing discipline and effort as an interior runner much earlier than Hillman at this stage of his career.
The big "however," is that I believe Hillman was always a more intuitive runner between the tackles. Robinson could develop into a more intuitive player at the position, but there is something to be said about the value of thousands of reps in high school and college. If Robinson becomes a good NFL starter, overcoming his steep learning curve from running quarterback at Michigan will be the exception rather than the rule.
Robinson's current production may argue otherwise, but it's important to consider the context of his best work. This is different than looking at a runner's performance and saying, "If you took away his 40-yard gain in the first quarter, Robinson's day wouldn't have been early as impressive." I don't believe in factoring out big plays. Otherwise, Adrian Peterson might be considered a fraction of the runner that we was.
Context helps you determine how the player is earning his production and whether there's a good chance of the player reproducing that output on a consistent basis. Peterson's large gains came on traditional running plays of all varieties: Traps, draws, sweeps, inside zone, power, toss, etc. Peterson also broke tackles and created yards on his own in addition to what his line created for him.
In contrast, Robinson's bigger gains (attempts greater than 5 yards) thus far have been the product of scheme and mismatch. The Miami game offers a few examples:
- Robinson's first run was a pitch to right end set up by misdirection of the line and quarterback slanting left. Thanks to the Dolphins' biting on the misdirection, Robinson gets the wide-open corner easily. He finishes strong enough with pad level and leg movement to earn four yards. While the pad level could be better, it's decent enough for a young running back playing at the highest level of football. This play is not the type of call that a team will run more than 2-3 times per game--and even that type of frequency is likely too much. Jacksonville tried this exact play again in the third quarter and the Dolphins stuffed Robinson for a loss of a yard.
- Robinson's second attempt was a jet sweep to the right flat. The runner was aligned as a receiver and motioned across the shotgun formation in front of the quarterback. The Robinson took the exchange and before he cleared the right tackle, he faked the reverse with a receiver, freezing the defense inside and earning the right corner for a 40-yard gain. Robinson's speed and experience with ball fakes came in handy and it's a smart play for Jacksonville to employ with a player for Robinson's background. But this is another play that the Jaguars can't use at a high volume from week-to-week; Miami shut this play down to a four-yard gain in the red zone later in the half.
- His more traditional running plays came against nickel defenses. The first was an eight-yard gain from a trips receiver set that was set up to look like a pass play when it was inside zone. The next was an eight-yard gain later in the drive against nickel from a 2x1 receiver alignment. The third eight-yard gain for Robinson also came against nickel when Jacksonville used outside zone with seven linemen against five defenders in the box. When Robinson reached the edge, he had a 2-on-1 blocker advantage.
We're talking about five plays for 68 yards and the pair of plays that earned 44 yards are not meant for high-volume use in a game. About 27 percent of Robinson's 18 carries are creative, lower-volume calls that generated 62 percent of the runner's production on Sunday. Jacksonville will need to continue to come up with creative ways to get Robinson into space that defenses won't foil with good scouting.
It also means that Robinson did his best work last week against a defense anticipating the pass. Robinson is not a bad running back, but his recent emergence needs to be viewed with a little more long-term caution.
The runner's best gain of the day in a situation where Miami expected run was arguably a four-yard play outside left tackle and inside the tight end. Robinson read the defense, patiently pressed the line towards the left guard before a late cutback through the gap between tackle and tight end. The Jaguars' line reached the Miami linebackers on this play and opened a crease that was wide enough for Robinson to take the ball 20-25 yards for the touchdown. However, Robinson tripped over his tight end's leg and fell forward for what was a minimal gain when considering the offensive line's work.
Good backs trip over linemen every week, but this hole was wide enough that a veteran NFL running back is more skill with his feet to exploit the crease for all it's worth. Robinson may develop this kind of refinement, but at this stage he's still an unrefined player--smart, but still a little raw.
With the 2015 NFL Draft sporting a strong class or running backs, I'd be surprised if Jacksonville doesn't provide Robinson with additional competition for carries come spring. If you can sell high, I'd consider it. If not, keep your expectations for Robinson as a future change-up who is earning starter opportunities short-term. If he continues to show growth at a fast enough rate that he's creating big plays from more traditional run sets in run situations then it will be time to revise those expectations.
(Buy) WR Mohammed Sanu: Marvin Jones be damned, Sanu remains viable buy because he's gaining confidence in the offense. How do I know? When Sanu was at Rutgers he had a knack for making fantastic adjustments on the football. The crossing route Sanu tipped to himself early in the Ravens game was an indication of that ability that I hadn't seen since his rookie year in the red zone. Big, strong, fluid, and a good runner after the catch, I'd love to see him paired with a quarterback like Drew Brees or Aaron Rodgers. I think he has upside to be a mix of Randall Cobb and Marques Colston, but I don't know if he'll ever find that situation as a player.
Andy Dalton may not compare well to these two quarterbacks, but he is willing to play aggressive football. Even if Marvin Jones returns from his foot/ankle injury 100 percent, I wouldn't be surprised if Sanu retains the starting job. If not, he'll be an attractive free agent once he hits the open market. In a deep league, I'd buy Sanu and hold in other formats.
(Hold/Monitor) RB Bishop Sankey: I have watched every game of Sankey's this season and I don't see skill or talent commensurate with a future fantasy RB1. It might happen, but the vision to anticipate the second level, the consistency of footwork to process what the eyes are seeing, and the power to generate more than what the blocking gives him isn't there often enough for me to believe he's the long-term answer. Still, Sankey has shown a little more intuition in recent weeks and that could be a product of increased comfort level. He's a decent NFL back, but put Zac Stacy behind the Titans' line and I think fans would say Stacy is the best of the two. That's what I think today, we'll see if it changes in 6-8 weeks.
(Hold/Monitor) WR Michael Campanaro: If Campanaro were in New England, I'd be urging you to buy him now. However, the Ravens have an identity crisis when it comes to its use of tight ends and slot receivers. Campanaro fits best as a slot option in an up-tempo unit that uses the interior receiver as an extension of the run game, but can also slide him to the outside on certain routes because of the rookies intermediate-deep speed and skill to make plays on 50/50 balls.
Campanaro is not a future Steve Smith in this department, but he has the route talent to develop into a 100-catch receiver in the right offense. I just don't see John Harbaugh and Gary Kubiak ever converting to that style of play. Steve Smith probably has another year or two left and I doubt the Ravens plan to get rid of Torrey Smith. Campanaro will probably have to play out his contract or get cut to earn a shot elsewhere as a productive fantasy option. Even so, continue to monitor his usage and progress because talent can often dictate changes in an offense. At the very least, talent often finds its way into a good situation.
(Hold) WR Jarvis Landry: The Dolphins receiver is making plays in traffic and running hard after the catch, but he's forced to expend a lot of effort for small gains in this offense. Until Miami features Landry more often on perimeter routes or deeper seam routes, I'd be cautious about his long-term outlook. I love his hands and work ethic and I'd gamble on him as a buy-low, but it might be a couple of years, a new coach, or even a new team (if that new coach cops a "he wasn't my guy" attitude).
Needle Drooping
No, I didn't mean to write "dropping." I'm talking about listless or uninspired performances-situations for players who were considered promising at one time. I'd rather wait until these players hit fantasy free agency before I add them to my roster.
WR/RB Tavon Austin: It appears Austin is caught in the midst of an offensive philosophy change. Two years ago, the Rams' starting receiver corps seemed destined to be a track meet of mighty mites lead by Austin, Stedman Bailey, and Chris Givens. Now, the trio is more like a big and tall store: Brian Quick, Kenny Britt, and Jared Cook
Throw in the fact that St. Louis has a trio of good running backs and Austin is little more than a player with a cameo role in this show on turf. Austin is either a limited route runner or the Rams have already pigeon-holed him as a limited player who they'll part ways with when Austin's deal is done. I thought that Austin had potential to be a moderately successful player in the style of Victor Cruz, but he'll need to show much better route skill than what he's displayed to this point.
WR Marqise Lee: Robinson, Cecil Shorts, and Allen Hurns are on the field far more often. It's not about talent, but it is about effort and maturity. Lee seems lost right now and it's indicative of him not displaying the little things at USC that could have made him a far more consistent player. The difference between college stars and NFL starters isn't nearly as much about athleticism as it is about consistency.
Lee wasn't smart in the open field at USC, often eschewing quality gains for home run plays and losing yards in the process. He was also very up and down against tight, physical coverage.
Lee only saw one target last week and it was as the primary option on a drag route to the right flat off play action. Lee was slow to turn his head to the quarterback and the pass bounced off him. I wouldn't be surprised if this is recurring problem for Lee in practice.
He has starter potential as an athlete, but unless you can acquire him as an afterthought in a league with deep rosters, I wouldn't bother.
Next Week: The Needle Movement on quarterbacks, tight ends, and IDPs.