ABOUT MY Non-PPR TIERS
You're still playing in a non-PPR league??? Yeah, me too. But I'm old school. I still own vinyl, cassette tapes, and VHS recordings and I flat-out refuse to have a microwave in any kitchen where I live and cook.
If you haven't figured it out by now, my wiring is a little different. So are some of my thoughts on fantasy football. Even so, my rankings accuracy is still very high by industry standards over the past 3-5 years and where I have performed best dovetails nicely with the strategy I write about the most: Upside Down Drafting.
However, my tiers are formatted by my projections and I embed a variety of notations within them so you can tailor this information to a number of different strategies. I will be writing more about strategic angles than explaining where I ranked specific players.
I have grouped players into 14 tiers of rounds and picks. The first six tables each cover one round and the next eight tables cover two rounds for a total of 22 rounds of players in a 12-team league format. Feel free to adjust as you wish for smaller or larger leagues.
The notations within each table are shorthand for Average Draft Position (ADP) and my ranking of each player:
- ADP is listed next to each player in parenthesis. For example, LeVeon Bell (14) is the 14th overall pick in drafts as of July 5th ADP.
- Players with normal fonts have a ranking from me that coincides with their ADP. I consider them safe plays.
- Italicized players are slightly overvalued if you agree with my ranking vs. their ADP.
- Players bolded and italicized are overvalued by more than a round between rounds 1-6 and more than two after round 6.
- Underlined players are slightly undervalued if you agree with my ranking vs. their ADP.
- Players bolded and underlined are undervalued by more than a round between rounds 1-6 and more than two after round 6.
These notations give fantasy owners ample opportunity to plan: When to lay back and when to pounce when it comes to certain players and/or positions. I'll offer a variety of strategic tips as I discuss each tier. If you are in a PPR league, check out my first run of PPR Tiers
TIER 1
Standard Advice: Unless you're bored, opting for a high-risk strategy in a competitive league, or in mad scientist mode, I recommend you play it safe during the early rounds of most leagues. Don't reach for a player 10-12 spots higher than his ADP during the first 4-6 rounds of a draft. As the draft progresses into the middle and late rounds the deviation of player values is naturally broader and there is justifiable reasons to extend one's reach as much as 16-24 spots because of position need, value drop-offs, and anticipation of ADP movement due to recent NFL news.
Although you could spend hours debating the differences among the top-rated running backs in a bar, your neighbor's man cave, or a message board the early-round runners from Jamaal Charles to Adrian Peterson are ultimately six of one, half-dozen of another. I'm not about splitting hairs on this topic, because these studs generally underperform for only one reason -- injury.
If you have the opportunity I advise you to save your breath, pick one of these four runners, and enjoy the show:
See what I mean? Captain Obvious says, "You're welcome."
After Peterson, the second half of the Tier 1 runners offers a more substantive discussion topic. The first is what to do about Marshawn Lynch? I'm writing this piece the weekend after Lynch opted to hold out. At this point, I'm not backing away from my top-10 projections for Lynch, but I understand if you're hesitant about drafting him in the first round because no one will be shocked if Lynch's ADP drops a full round or two within a week of his announcement.
While there will be some who pipe up about Lynch's age, back problems, and workload, most fantasy owners would easily take Lynch as a mid-to-low RB1 before the hold out. If you can wait a couple of weeks to see if Lynch and the Seahawks come to an agreement like me then don't change your forecast of Lynch as an RB1 because as talented as Christine Michael is (sample RSP scouting report), if Lynch returns to the fold the fear of the second-year runner taking a significant chunk of Lynch's carries is wasted air.
Where it gets interesting is if your draft takes place while Lynch is holding out. If Lynch's value declines and you can get him in the range of rounds 2-4, is it really a good value? One might argue that taking Lynch at this point is a big risk because the RB could retire or lose carries to Michael if there's a prolonged stalemate, which means a lot of Lynch owners will be drafting Michael earlier than ever as a handcuff.
As a past league champion with a team that included drafting Larry Johnson at an elevated price to handcuff to Priest Holmes, I can understand that Michael as a priority handcuff could work out favorably for you. However, you better understand how this move impacts your draft. Taking a mid-round handcuff at RB that might not even be worth a RB2 during the regular season elevates the risk that you don't get a safe WR3, TE1, or QB1.
In order to get one of those three needs and still take Michael you will often be forced to reach for your projected values a round or two early while still hoping and praying that at least 1-2 players fall to a spot where you don't wind up position-poor.
The rest of the backs I have ranked in the bottom half of Tier 1 is filled with skilled options (Foster, Martin, and Rice) that fair-weathered fans have soured on because of an injury-plagued season and/or workload. Your take on Rice's off-field behavior is your business. From strictly the perspective of fantasy analysis, Rice's two-game suspension was 40-60 percent less time than I expected and it means his projected totals increased to the point that I believe a now-healthy Rice will offer borderline RB1 value in 2014 behind what I believe will be an improved offensive line.
As is the case most years, the bottom half of the first round always requires more projection of unknown factors. LeVeon Bell is a prime example because of the Steelers' offensive line. I'm a believer that the line will take the next step forward if it can stay healthy this year. If you share my optimism, it's a good reason to wait on a running back if you have a mid-to-late first round pick and opt for Calvin Johnson or Jimmy Graham.
Although Johnson is leaving a lot of boards as the fifth pick, we all know that there will be leagues where you can get the stud receiver at picks 8-12 in a 12-team non-PPR league. If this happens, you'll also have a shot at getting one of Graham, Bell, or Martin in the second round and following up with Rice in rounds 3-4 (and likely a shot at a second WR1).
The Less Conventional Track: The high turnover of RB1s from one year to the next makes the second half of the first round a dicey spot to take a runner. I'd prefer Johnson or Graham because of their consistency as scorers and they are the focal points of their offense. The fear among some fantasy owners is that Johnson and Graham don't perform to the level where the gap between them and the rest of their peers is strong enough to warrant the first pick.
I understand this concern, but this is the mindset of fantasy owners who treat the opening rounds like its brain surgery instead of horseshoes and dancing. While helpful, you don't need bull's eyes early -- you just need to be "close." With fantasy football, "close" is a healthy player with production that would merit a place in nearly every starting lineup in your league
If you hit on enough of these early picks in this fashion, you've built a consistent, productive starting lineup. Although top wide receivers aren't as productive in non-PPR leagues, the best ones still offer enough quality production on a consistent basis to warrant an early pick -- especially when half of the projected top-24 runners in recent years don't live up to their ADP and those that do are available in the middle and late rounds.
You only need one solid starter (top-24 RB) if you have top-12 producers at QB, WR1-WR2, and/or WR3/TE1. It's easier to acquire these options earlier in the draft while other owners are more RB-focused. Ray Rice, Alfred Morris, Andre Ellington, Rashad Jennings, Zac Stacy, and Steven Jackson are all options available after the second round so why not lead off with Johnson and one of Graham, Demaryius Thomas, Dez Bryant, A.J. Green, and Julio Jones? With Rob Gronkowski available in the third round, you could by-pass Graham and take your chances on the most talented tight end in the NFL staying healthy.
Tier 2
I really like enough of my RBs in this tier that if you're not dead-set on getting two in the early rounds then you have a great opportunity to be flexible with your opening strategy. I think most fantasy writers I talk with are shocked that Morris is available in the early third round. I'll be ecstatic if I get an early first-round pick in a snake draft and Morris is waiting for me at the end of round two-early round three.
If you're feeling like a mad scientist and you're in the five-spot and iffy about a running back, take Johnson and double up on two of Morris, Jordy Nelson, Alshon Jeffery, Antonio Brown, and Andre Ellington. With the likes of Rice, Jennings, Jackson, Ryan Mathews, available in rounds four and later, why not go go this route?
I think the talk of Tre Mason cutting into Zac Stacy's production is premature. Maybe next year, but the only way Stacy hands over a significant chunk of his opportunities this year will be due to injury. The Rams runner should post solid RB2 production and he's a good example of the type of player you take in the early third round as your first RB while betting on the possibility of landing a second back in rounds 4-8 that earns RB1 fantasy production (Jackson, Jennings, etc.). If the shot at the mid-round RB1 fails, Stacy should be one of the more consistent RB2s every week and if you pick well at WR/TE/QB, you'll still field a high-scoring lineup.
Tier 3
I'm a little surprised that Marshall dropped a full tier in my non-PPR rankings, but I'm expecting Jeffery's red zone production to take another step forward at Marshall's expense. If Marquess Wilson shows enough with his development, don't be surprised of Marshall performs more like a mid-range WR2 instead of a stud WR1. I don't believe it will happen this year, but the Bears are cautiously optimistic about Wilson's offseason work and he's a player to monitor in training camp.
Tier 4
Look close enough at these first five tiers and there's a strong enough argument for taking Peyton Manning in the first round. The conversation about picking a quarterback tends to fall into the simplistic: do you take one early or do you wait? While mostly an either-or situation with me, I like to invoke the Manning Exception: If I have enough options I like to build a team I like with Manning as an early pick, I'm doing so.
The difference between Manning and the other top quarterbacks is what I believe is the heightened potential for record-breaking production. Tom Brady and Drew Brees have some of that "coach on the field" skill, but Manning is at a different level with it. Brady and Brees have one option apiece capable of elite or first-tier starter receiving totals (Graham and Gronkowski), but Manning has 3-4 options.
In fact, the only quarterbacks with established talent at receiver that might rival Manning's on paper are Robert Griffin, Andrew Luck and Matt Stafford and those three passing units have enough unproven spots that it's a stretch to mention them as anything but longshot possibilities to achieve elite starter production.
When you consider that Manning broke records last year despite notable deterioration of arm strength with some throws and there's enough surrounding talent backing up Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker, and Julius Thomas, it seems foolish to me NOT to look into ways to build a team around Manning in 2014 - even if you have to expect some regression from his 2013 production.
While there's the "Happy Accident Manning Team," which I mentioned in my first PPR Tiers article this year -- when Manning drops to a round where it becomes too foolish not to take him -- it's unlikely Manning will come this cheap after his record-breaking year. It means you're consdering the Broncos quarterback at the turn of the first/second round in many leagues
Let's presume Manning is your 11th overall selection. Here's how I would use my tiers to build around him:
The first three drafts are with Manning leaving the board with the 11th pick overall and the bottom three drafts are if Manning slipped three spots to the 14th pick. If you understand that you only need to hit on one RB as a consistent starter then there's a lot to work with. There are a couple of teams where I added a player that would have had to slip 3-4 spots to obtain him with the corresponding picks above, but it's still very realistic.
The only issue I have with building a team around Manning with these two picks is that there's no shot at getting a tight end like Graham or Gronkowski. Vernon Davis and Jordan Cameron have a shot at falling to you, but the players most likely available are the ultra-safe Jason Witten or the boom-bust Jordan Reed (great athleticism, mutiple head injuries).
Of course, you could stock up at receiver, running back, or take Tony Romo or Russell Wilson where I drafted Reed and if you need to fortify your roster, you can sell Manning for multiple starters. While I like Reed and I'm optimistic about the players I've drafted in rounds 7-9, a reasonably-negotiated deal should land you two players with less risk.
Tier 5
Note: Ignore Darren Sproles' spot in Tier 5. He belongs in Tier 8 and I neglected to delete the first entry.
This tier is a perfect microcosm for these rankings. There are six players whose ADP matche my placement of them in the fifth-round tier (Floyd, Jackson, Bell, Tate, Patterson, and Cameron). These are the safest picks.
There are two players (Cobb and Rodgers) that I believe will play like fifth-round values and I would not draft them unless they fell to the fifth round and based on their ADPs it's highly unlikely.
Then there are three players (excluding Sproles) that are available later, but I believe they'll produce at a fifth-round value (Nicks, Stills, and Sanders). If you were using this list, you'd look at Tiers 1-4 to see if there are any players still available. If there are, they earn first priority consideration. If not, then you examine the players available in Tier 5.
The undervalued players give you flexibility. If you believe Emmanuel Sanders has a chance to match Eric Decker's Denver production, you could take a shot on a player like DeSean Jackson or Michael Floyd and still follow up with Sanders in the sixth round. If you went RB early on or you like having receivers as flex options, these three prospects at the position give you starter production as their downside and low-end WR1 production as their ceiling.
If I'm right about the receivers in this tier, it would be foolish to draft Randall Cobb at his third-round value when you have seven receivers with similar potential that are available 1-4 rounds later. I've always been a fan of Cobb's talent, but those who were banking on Cobb to out-produce Jordy Nelson may have earned a reality check this weekend when the Packers signed Nelson to a long-term deal.
Tier 6
If the Manning Exception isn't appealing to you, then Foles and Griffin are the two passers that begin to present value commensurate with their ADP. If you missed on the exciting upside players at tight end but you don't like the risk-reward of the next tier, Jason Witten is a solid choice. Greg Olsen should be available a round later and if you don't land Witten and you're nervous about Reed, Greg Olsen could have a career year in Carolina thanks to an overhaul at receiver that might make Cam Newton even more TE-dependent than ever.
There are enough receivers from Tier 5 that should be available in Tier 6 for your consideration. That being the case, you might decide reaching a bit for a quarterback in the fifth and following up with a player like Sanders could be a worthwhile flip-flop of your draft board.
Tier 7
However, Tier 7 also has two quarterbacks I like in rounds 7-8 and if I miss on Sanders in the sixth, there's enough mid-range receiver talent with upside to consider a round later. Running back may look thin, but considering that Steven Jackson, Maurice Jones-Drew, and Lamar Miller have ADPs that fit this tier, there's enough available talent to make the most of this round.
I would consider runner in the 7th round because tight end Travis Kelce is now healthy and he could easily match the performances of every tight end in this tier. The fact that he's a free agent value according to ADP means if you've waited this long or a tight end and you saw what I liked in Kelce at Cincinnati, you embrace the risk and use Tier 7 for depth at RB or WR if you don't need a QB.
If you're skittish about that kind of risk and Reed worries you, Kyle Rudolph is conservative drafting tendency's ideal. Still, I can see waiting for Gates three rounds later and pairing him with Kelce at the end of the draft. If both play to my expectations I have trade bait by mid-October.
Tier 8
I'll happily take Philip Rivers in the 9th or 10th round even if some fantasy writers are citing the late-2013 reliance on the ground game. None of the backs in Tier 8 excite me with their potential beyond Khiry Robinson and the Saints' stating that Mark Ingram will be a core player in its offense in 2014 leads me to believe that this ground game will remain a three-way split.
If Odell Beckham's hamstring injury derails his preseason, Reuben Randle's value will jump (as will his ADP). The rest of these receivers are unproven potential WR1s and WR2s 2-3 years from now or old-reliables that keep your team afloat in bye weeks (at the very least) like Steve Smith, Eric Decker, and Brian Hartline.
Smith and Tier 9's Jerricho Cotchery are two mid-round players I want on my team. They're smart, sure-handed, and have a little more left in the tank than some characterize.
The quarterbacks in Tiers 9-10 are the Last Chance QB1s. Most have given up on Cutler as the passer on the verge of elite production, but the ability and weapons are all there for it to happen. If I'm going quarterback by committee, the combo of Cutler-Ben Roethlisberger or Cutler-Carson Palmer is a good one because of the surrounding talent -- especially the improvement of the Steelers' and Cardinals offensive lines.
The fact that Roethlisberger is finally taking care of his body in a way that he should have considered doing 10 years ago is a good sign. Palmer has earned praise for his leadership and improved command of the offense. If you wait on quarterback, these three are good enough to help a fantasy lineup win -- even if they have a few more inconsistent weeks than their peers.
I expect fewer bad weeks and more big weeks from all three in 2014.
Tier 9
Tier 10
If you're desperate for quarterback play and leaning on a rookie doesn't work for you (unless Teddy Bridgewater or Johnny Manziel wins the job outright before the season starts, I won't be recommending at first-year QB in re-draft leagues this year), I think you can cobble together decent short-term production with the quarterbacks in the 11th and 12th Tiers while figuring out a negotiation strategy to acquire a more consistent starter. Flacco, Manning, and Fitzpatrick have the best group of veteran weapons in the next two tiers.
Of the backs whose tier slots match their ADP, the ones that interest me the most in these tiers are Lance Dunbar, C.J. Anderson, Charles Sims, Roy Helu, and Ka'Deem Carey. All are in terrific positions to earn feature back carries if the starter gets hurt. Dunbar, Anderson, Helu, and Carey are in strong offenses with quarterbacks that can take the pressure off the ground game. Sims catches the ball well enough that even if the Buccaneers disappoint along the line of scrimmage, receptions could bolster Sims' value if Martin goes down again.
Tier 11
Tier 12
The final tiers are players that I consider fliers. Many may disagree with my assessment of Steve Johnson but even with the praise he's earned early in camp, the 49ers have already said that Johnson would be a role player and not a primary option. His role could change if Michael Crabtree gets hurt, but its why I believe he's an overvalued commodity.
Realistically, Johnson belongs in this tier with the likes of less proven talents capable of big things if the opportunity arises. If an injuries strike, I wouldn't be at all surprised if players like Kevin Norwood, Marquess Wilson, Andre Holmes, Mohamed Sanu, Cody Latimer, and Brandon Lloyd produce as quality bye-week options with WR3 upside.
All six receivers have excellent red zone potential due to their hands, height, build, and skills with the ball in the air. I'd even add Martavis Bryant to the mix. I have more reservations about the Steelers' rookie because I want to see Bryant demonstrate that he's making a mature transition to professional sports after a college career that had some ups and downs when it came to work ethic. Even so, I'll gladly consider him in the final rounds because of his upside and physical skills that the rest of the Steelers receiving corps lack.
Tier 13
Tier 14
Of the running backs in these tiers (ignore my Kendall Hunter listing), Tre Mason, Jerick McKinnon, Bryce Brown, and Robert Turbin are the most appealing. Brown has far and away the most talent, but I wonder how much the trade to Buffalo is going to change Brown's outlook. Did the Bills have a good feel for Brown on and off the field before making this investment? Has Brown gotten the message that this trade might be last -- and best shot -- to develop into an NFL starter?
I have difficulty trusting Spiller's health and Brown is an easy player to pick and throw back if the need doesn't arise for his services. Turbin is "the other guy" in Seattle, but he could become a valuable handcuff if Lynch doesn't sign and Michael starts. Another option to consider on the waiver wire could be Spencer Ware. Keep your ears open about his camp if there continues to be a stalemate with Lynch's negotation in mid-August.
I would not consider a tight end after Tier 10. However, I still might consider a quarterback. Some writers were quick to mention Derek Carr as a potential first-year starter this spring, but this week the Raiders said that they don't want Carr to see the field at all this year. As has been the case every year, there's enough talent at the skill positions for an Oakland quarterback to thrive.
There are too many ifs with the Browns' receivers and runners to get excited about Brian Hoyer and/or Johnny Manziel, but I'd take a flier on Hoyer if my draft unfolds in a way that I didn't land my preferred QBBC combinations. If Josh Gordon somehow manages to earn a reduced suspension, I'll move Hoyer to the same tier as Flacco, Dalton, and Tannehill.
Overall Takeaways
- Contrary to conventional thought, there is enough mid-round value at RB -- even in old-school, non-ppr leagues - to go upside down successfully.
- Wait until at least the sixth round on quarterbacks unless one of the top 3-4 options falls a round or two below his projected ADP.
- Because of players like Travis Kelce, Dwayne Allen, and Eric Ebron, take the mid-range QB and wait on TE if you have to make a choice. It will be easier to acquire a viable option at TE off the waiver wire if your later options work out.
- You only need to draft one quality starter at RB to succeed -- even in many leagues with multiple flex-options.
I'll have updates to my PPR tiers later in the week. Stay tuned.