The Gut Check No.285 - Zac Stacy

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20/20 Hindsight (Would've, Could've, should've)

Who Would've Known Tony Gonzalez Would Post a Strong Game vs. Carolina: Normally I wouldn't bench a player like Gonzalez, but after a couple of weeks without Julio Jones or Roddy White, the future Hall of Famer wasn't earning quality targets. Opposing defenses were placing punt coverage on Gonzalez in the red zone and the tight end's opportunities were reduced to short flat routes in tight coverage. However, Carolina allowed more than 20 fantasy points to Gonzalez in some PPR leagues, including a touchdown. 

Lesson Learned: I thought linebacker Luke Kuechly would draw consistent coverage on Gonzalez and limit the tight end. This was the case in the first quarter. Kuechly intercepted Gonzalez to end the Falcons' second series of the game. However, the Panthers didn't keep Kuechly on Gonzalez and the Atlanta tight end got loose against multiple defenders drawing the match up. Carolina allowed 10 fantasy points per game to tight ends prior to this game, which is a figure on the middle to low-end of the spectrum this year. It's good to remember that what you might do to stop a player isn't what a team will do, especially when the data flies against that notion.

Who Could've Known Riley Cooper Would Post Top 20 Fantasy Production For the Past Five Weeks: Especially after Cooper went ignorant this summer at a Kenny Chesney concert. As bad as his video performance was at the concert, his on-field production during three of the past four weeks as a PPR option have been excellent. Cooper is a tall, muscular receiver with build-up speed and comfort making plays in tight coverage with his back to the quarterback. Get Cooper in the intermediate and deep zones after the catch on crossing routes and he'll make some plays with his legs. Cooper is more Malcom Floyd than Jordy Nelson, which means he's not a superstar in waiting but he's a quality talent on a team that has to throw the ball to stay in the game.

Lesson Learned: Opportunity and rapport are difference makers even if the player is considered by his team a depth chart talent. Speaking of which, Donald Driver wasn't a starter when he entered the league but eventually had six fantasy seasons with top-20 receiver production. Terence Mathis, Derek Mason, Joe Horn, and Keenan McCardell are four other examples of receivers who sat on the bench or had limited starts during their first 3-4 seasons before earning a steady role as a starter. Talent doesn't always manifest on the field right away. 

I Should Have Known RB1 is the Least Stable Fantasy Position on a Roster From Year-to-Year (12-team Leagues): At least through Week 8, this season continues to be true to form from past seasons. 

Technically, tight end is the least stable this year, but considering the only tight end anyone would recommend drafting in the first two rounds this year was Jimmy Graham, who has retained his top spot thus far from last year, I'm not counting it. Moreover, if you opened with Manning or Brees as your bet as a top-three quarterback and Calvin Johnson, Dez Bryant, or Demaryius Thomas as one of your top-three receivers, you led off with a safe, productive player in your draft. 

In contrast, only Adrian Peterson and Marshawn Lynch are the only backs thus far who have retained their top-five value from last year. Combine the total retention for the top-12 from each position with this information about the elite players and it continues to validate the concept that unless you have one of the top 3-5 picks in a draft, it's safer and more productive to go heavier on receivers and a top quarterback early and buy mid-round and late-round backs in bulk.   

Lesson Learned: While there will be seasons where running backs retain fantasy value higher than its longer-term average, the committee-like use, the injury rate, and fast burnout rate at the position means that the safer bet in the early rounds tends to be top receivers a top-tier quarterback, and the best tight end in the league. You can read more about this Upside Down Strategy here. 

Zach Stacy

Zach Stacy is a good running back who might do enough to help you win your fantasy football league, but don't get sentimental and expect the rookie to develop into an anchor for your future teams. I bet the Rams won't. Stacy is an upper middle class Alfred Morris - also known as Shonn Greene with agility and sometimes confused with a bigger Travis Henry lacking Henry's Napoleon Complex between the tackles. 

Despite my tempered admiration for Stacy, if I were the Rams I'd count on the runner as my starter for the next few years, acquire other positions through the draft and free agency, and reserve the late rounds and street free agency for the running back depth chart. If I hit on a late-round or undrafted back and he reduces Stacy's workload to that of a committee option or reserve, fine. If not, the rookie from Vanderbilt's best talent is good for offensive consistency: He wears teams out with effort while keeping the unit on schedule. 

Watching Stacy the past two weeks, there's nothing I have seen that differs from his work against SEC defenses with perhaps my take that Stacy appears just a little slower in the NFL than he did in college football. His game speed might improve as he gets more playing time and gains rapport with his line - or after a full off season of training - but if it remains the same, I think Stacy will remain a productive contributor who will always be looking over his shoulder for the next young gun that his team adds to the depth chart. 

Even so, Stacy's effort, smarts, and determination will endear him to the team and he'll be a worthy obstacle for young runners vying for playing time. 

I'm borrowing from my Boiler Room Series at the Rookie Scouting Portfolio Blog to give you a one-play example that epitomizes Stacy's game. the touch is a 2nd and one with 8:58 left. it's Stacy's 24th carry of the afternoon and his 8th carry for greater than 4 yards in this game. 

When at least one-third of a runner's carries exceed four yards, it's a promising sign that the player and his linemen have been consistent on a carry-to-carry basis. This has been the case with Stacy's past two starts. While he's not going to earn a lot of gains over 25 yards, his style is well-suited to gains of 3-4 yards with enough runs of 5-10 yards that he'll wear a defense down. 

This 32-yard gain below not only illustrates what Stacy can do when he breaks a play into the second level, it also reveals the skills that Stacy has in his arsenal to wear out defenses over the course of a game. 

The Rams block this run well up front with a pair of double teams on the Titans defensive tackles and Jared Cook winds inside as the lead blocker for added measure to prevent penetration in the middle of the line of scrimmage. 

What I like about Stacy is his choppy stride that helps him keep his pads low and hips balanced while still exhibiting a good burst through the line of scrimmage. The Rams open a huge hole by NFL standards and Stacy earns five yards untouched thanks to his teammates. Note the nice seal block by the left tackle and both double teams working to the linebackers. 

Stacy's burst is by no means extraordinary, but the stride and pace is just quick enough for him to set up nifty changes of direction when afforded space like this in the open field. Stacy has a two-way go versus the linebacker and opts to use a spin move to the inside that ultimately turns this gain of 5-7 yards outside the left hash to a 34-yard gain in the opposite direction. Stacy's short stride and pad level helps him plant and spin inside. 

As Stacy spins free of the linebacker, the safety makes his way towards the Rams' rookie. I continue to emphasize the short, choppy stride because it provides the runner control not only to change direction, but maintain a balanced stance to bounce off contact. 

The safety's tackle attempt is not a good one because he neglects to wrap the runner at the legs, opting for a hit/cut. At this stage of the game after a runner accumulates 24 carries, an opposing defense gets tired. When the defense gets tired, it neglects details. Stacy's pad level helps the runner maintain his balance as the hit arrives. The contact knocks Stacy backwards two yards but he maintains his balance and continues running outside the hash into the flat. 

Reaching the flat, Stacy maintains a nice crouch and prepares to deliver a stiff arm to the oncoming defender. The stride and pad level Stacy exhibits on every run helps him turn collisions at the line of scrimmage for no gain into carries of 3-4 yards because he gets under most hits and can keep his legs moving with strength and balance. 

Stacy doesn't level the defender with his stiff arm, but it's just enough to force the defender to the runner's feet and Stacy manages to get his knees and feet high enough to run through the contact, maintain his balance and earn another 10-15 yards. 

The downside to Stacy's stride is that his quicker than fast. He's made three lateral moves to win collisions with three defenders to earn his 34 yards and keeps defensive tackles in the hunt to make a play. The upside is that Stacy is a classic Jeff Fisher guy, a grinder who won't lose his team yards, make plays in the passing game, and wear down the opposition in the fourth quarter. 

The Rams face Indianapolis, Chicago, San Francisco, Arizona, New Orleans, and Tampa down the stretch. At the beginning of the year this looked like an up-and-down match-up schedule, but now it's one of the more favorable outlooks for a fantasy runner for the rest of the year. I think Stacy is one of the safest RB2s you can have for your playoff run. 

Another runner to consider down the stretch with a similar stride and pad level is Tampa Bay's Mike James. He isn't a dynamic player in terms of burst, change of direction, or creativity, but his second-effort and mature decision-making makes him another safe RB2 capable of greater production if the Tampa passing game clicks early. 

Stacy's dynasty outlook is a different story. Fisher started rookie Rodney Thomas for 10 games in 1995 and the 5'10", 210-pound rookie from Texas A&M earned a combined 1051 yards and 7 touchdowns. The next year, the Oilers drafted Eddie George. 

Stacy could do enough to impress the Rams that he earns a shot as the lead back in 2014. However, former Falcons head of scouting Les Snead is the Rams' GM and he often had an eye for speedier backs - even if they didn't work out. At the same time, he also had late-round runner Jamal Anderson. If you're going to take shot on Stacy as a dynasty option, consider him a RB2 in value. Don't overpay, but if a owner is willing to pay RB1 value or a WR1 prospect with top-end WR1 potential (Keenan Allen), sell. 

HIgher Ground: TWo Ways I'd Innovate Fantasy Football

Fantasy football is tired. Sometims it's how I feel about the hobby regardless of the emergence of daily games, dynasty leagues, and auction leagues. Salary caps and contracts have breathed a new dimension of life in to the game, but in some ways these elements are distractions rather than innovations to raise the skill level of the game.

I own my own business ventures: The Rookie Scouting Portfolio and Matt Waldman, Freelance Writer. It's enough. However, I want to see someone invigorate fantasy football; not just with technical bells and whistles, but change the way we play the game more than how we administer it.

Here are my two ideas that will make someone millions of dollars or generate years of heartache, but they will change the way we play the game if executed as I imagine them:

1. Incorporate Game Planning Into Fantasy Football: Head-to-Head match-ups are fun because of the thought that we're competing with another person, but there are a lot of opportunities for skill that have been left on the drawing board. From the standpoint of trash-talking, I joke with some of my league-mates that the reason we use head-to-head match-ups is that in a point totals league, I'd never lose.

I'm only half-kidding.  

Seriously, most of us non-wing-nuts realize that head-to-head match-ups in fantasy leagues are flawed. You can't stop the other team from scoring. But what if you could?

Depending on the size of your rosters, what if you could rate the priority/effort you'd place on stopping specific players on your opponent's lineup? Using a percentile increments or a priority scale based on starting lineup side of 1-10 for 10-player lineups, 1-12 for 12-player lineups, etc, you list the priority you'd put on game planning against your opponent's roster.

These percentile increments or scale are then used to subtract points from those players once the game is over. Let's use the example of a 10-player starting lineup and the scale of 1-10 represents an 8 percent "game planning deduction per increment." In other words, if my opponent has Calvin Johnson and I want to make him my top priority to game plan against, then I'll assign him a 10 and it means that 80 percent of Johnson's points will be removed from the total score of the game.

Your league can determine the amount of deduction per increment. If you want a realistic-looking game, the increments will be higher. If you don't care about the realism of the score, then you use a lower figure. Not only does this innovation allow fantasy owners to set their lineups but to be active in stopping other lineups. This requires more skill.

Here's how a game would play out:

 True Head-to-Head Fantasy Football

I used 8 percent for each Game Plan Factor Increment. As you can see, the point totals are still pretty high, but what's most interesting is the strategy. Team A would have lost the game if there was no Game Plan Factor, but it could have one the match up if it stopped the correct players. While Team A did a good job assigning a Game Plan Factor of 10 (80 percent deduction) to Peyton Manning and a 9 to Wes Welker, it didn't expect Marvin Jones to go off.

Of course, neither did the Jets when it made A.J. Green it's priority.

In contrast, Team B did a great job of identifying Team A's highest scorers and reducing its opponent's point totals. In fact, Team A only really missed on Frank Gore in terms of Game Plan Factor, wasting a high priority on the under-performing 49ers back. That's good defense/game planning.

In terms of league reporting, you'd still use the gross points for each player to determine player values for trades, waivers, and lineup decisions, but the Game Plan Factor now allows you to play defense against your opponent. No more complaints about how your leagues determine playoff spots. Head-to-Head will truly rule.

2. Halftime Adjustments: Want even more realistic elements on game day? Someone needs to create a league management system that allows for teams to log halftime adjustments to starting lineups at halftime of each match up.

Heck, go full bore and give leagues the opportunity to make minute-by-minute adjustments if they want to go that nutty. From an IT standpoint, this would be way too expensive and demanding to manage without massive issues unless you're a business with a ton of money to blow. However, it might become reasonable to execute years from now. 

Still, the halftime adjustment is probably doable. Here's how it would work. Your team has Darren McFadden and for whatever reason (injury, current performance in the game, the way the actual game script is unfolding, gut feeling, etc.) you decide at halftime to bench the Raiders' runner.

Perhaps Chris Johnson gets hurt and you believe Shonn Greene is in position to earn the bulk of the carries in a game where the Titans are up 21-0. With this innovation, you can enter the switch anytime before halftime of those games that will take effect in the third quarter.

Any points scored by your current starters in the first half apply to your total, but once they're on the bench it doesn't count. Likewise, whatever your second-half subs do in the first half doesn't count, but once you put them in your lineup, you get their second half points.

I'd recommend having the chance to make these changes with every player in your lineup. If you over think things, it's on you.

This will enhance the coaching element of fantasy football, make game days more strategic, and raise the importance of having depth on your fantasy team. This requires far more decision making when acquiring players, understanding football strategy; and display of action and restraint.

While set-it-and-forget-it lineup choices of the present are more business-friendly and allow for fantasy owners to participate in more leagues and have some semblance of a real life, this element should be a truer method to determine who is a better fantasy coach and GM.