The Gut Check No.479: 2019 Tiers And Confidence Levels (Updated 8/19)

Photo: Imagn Images

Projections and rankings are insightful analysis but they are flawed standalone processes for drafting your team. We all know this to be true if we pay close attention to the strategic twists that our minds make when examining this information on draft day.

We're calculating the needs and tendencies of our opponents as well as the perceived upside and downside of players as the draft unfolds. We're continuously making round-by-round bets on players not only with our selections but with whom we pass over—whether it's with the intent of not wanting their services whatsoever to calculated risks that they'll be available later.

Projecting and rankings don't do enough to help us here. Tiers are more effective because we can combine multiple rounds in a tier or weed out players that we don't want despite going through the exercise of assigning their forecasted values with projections and rankings.

Still, tiers don't go far enough with sharing how we truly value a player. Dwain McFarland and I were discussing the idea of tiers during a podcast series were doing on offensive projections and he mentioned the idea of sharing confidence levels for each player within the tier.

It's a good idea.

What factors into Confidence Level?

Here are the factors that influence my confidence level of players. Obviously, this is subjective and based on my experience studying football players and analyzing fantasy football. These factors are listed in order of importance, but keep in mind that the weight of one or multiple factors can be heavier or lighter on an individual basis.

• Volume
• Talent and the upside potential of opportunity and surrounding talent.
• Offensive fit
• Health
• Fatal flaws with mental processing, technique or physicality:
• Ball security
• Technique- or contact-related drops
• Poor ball tracking
• Difficulty catching the ball versus physical play
• Difficulty executing specific run-blocking schemes
• Chronically poor judgment under pressure
• Delays in processing coverage (quarterbacks and receivers) or keys in the run game
• Quality of the surrounding talent
• Quality of the depth chart

These factors will be used to assign Confidence Level Grades with a range of F to A and will include plusses and minuses.

About the Tiers

• This analysis is based on 12-team PPR leagues and factors ADP, my rankings and private projections, as well as the Confidence Level above.
• If a player is not listed, I'm not drafting him. If you want to know why then see my rankings and the comments that are available for almost every player.
• The tiers have three sections where I approximate sections of rounds but these are tiers where I value players regardless of the ADP.
• The more I do this, the less I care about ADP, which means there will be players that you may consider reaches. It means my Confidence Level is high.
• Because I don't care that much about ADP, many of my tiers will have players recommended 1-4 rounds ahead of ADP.
• If a player falls from an earlier tier to a later one, he should remain near the top of your list and his confidence ranking should be equal to the highest-rated players in the lower tier.

The easiest way to make sense of these tiers—if you're simply looking for players I like enough to take earlier than others and will even reach for them—is to note the players in bold.

When I've listed players who might make it back to you a round or two later I will place an asterisk (*) next to their names. I wouldn't recommend waiting on these players unless you are at the turn and have a strong chance of them making it back to you 4-6 picks later, at most.

If I have a higher confidence level in a player at a middle or later spot in the round, I recommend valuing that player the same as if his ADP were in an earlier section.

Spend a few minutes mapping out potential rosters with these lists. I recommend using Draft Dominator mock drafts to determine when it's best to target running backs, tight ends, and quarterback because there aren't as many running back options with this plan as others.

I left spaces in some tiers for you to print and write in your own players if you want to use this in some form as a cheat sheet for your draft.

Tier 1 Commentary: I'm not worried about Elliott's hold out. If you are, there's little I can do to convince you otherwise. If you're playing it safe consider Kamara through McCaffrey in the Early Turn column and Hill, Johnson, and Adams in the Middle Spot.

Conner would have earned a higher Confidence Level from me if not for the turnover at receiver. Bell is an excellent talent but we're not sure that it will be maximized in the Jets' offense.

Updated 8/19: Nick Chubb earns more receiving yards in my assessment for the season, which earns him a definite spot inside my top-10 and there's still easy upside for him to earn a top-5 spot, overall. He may remain an outlier for some but he's a top talent in an offense with the surrounding talent to maximize his skills.

If you favor talent and have the guts, Gurley, Beckham, and Chubb are worth a reach if you're at the end of the first round. Gurley and/or Chubb could be league winners. Beckham has Julio Jones' upside and he's healthier, which places him in the same tier for me.

This is an aggressive approach that uses ADP in the way I believe is best: Using it as a tool to know what others are doing and timing the best point to take the players you believe in the most. All too often, fantasy players lament that they knew Player X was worth more but they hoped to maximize value and get him a little later because they didn't think anyone was going to take him that early.

If you want a safe build, head over to David Dodds' Perfect Draft—he's the Betty Crocker of successful fantasy teams because he'll maximize your depth. Work with Betty and Rate My Team will tell you that you have an 85 percent chance of making the playoffs even with borderline neglectful management that, if your squad were your children, it would earn a call from the Department of Child and Family Services.

If you want to cook up something original and have the guts to take players a little earlier than their most aggressive ADP range and you're ok with Rate My Team giving you the nice version of "your squad sucks and you should give up fantasy football," keep reading. This happens to me almost annually. All I need to tell you is that at year's end, I'm strutting into the postseason kitchen with blades against Betty Crocker clones armed with rubber spatulas.

Trash talk aside, Betty will give you a strong team to begin your campaign and help you mold it into a contender as the season unfolds. The Gut Check will give you a shot at higher reward if you can handle the higher risk. I address these risks in subsequent articles before the season and early in the year to prepare for ways to manage these types of builds.

Tier 2 Commentary: Didn't get the running back you wanted, you dislike Mixon or can't get him, and don't have time to waste with hoping your league follows the dull-eyed herd of ADP dairy cows into their respective pens? Devonta Freeman is worth the big reach if you're not feeling as trendy about a talented Kerryon Johnson. Need a receiver? There are plenty here after I rode herd past the mooing ADPers to give you the best available.

For those of you having slight difficulty following along, I love Mike Evans, Amari Cooper, and Keenan Allen in this range. If they're gone and you're dead-set on a pass catcher, Thielen and Hilton are faves. I love that both players move around their offenses and they're skilled against tight coverage.

If you're not tied to taking a specific position by round, you take Patrick Mahomes II in Year 2 with the idea that he, as Peyton Manning loaded with great weapons during his second year as a Bronco, will break NFL records. But Matt, the average expected points from the No.1 QB versus the No.9 QB...

We all know the risk that on average, having the top quarterback does not consistently deliver a compelling fantasy advantage as other positions. I don't recommend this annually. I did it when Manning had Wes Welker, Eric Decker, and Demaryius Thomas and I'm doing it with Mahomes for similar reasons—Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Sammy Watkins, and take your pick of Mecole Hardman, Darwin Thompson, and Byron Pringle as a worthwhile surprise gift.

Tier 3 Commentary: Chris Carson is a hot commodity now that Rashaad Penny Truthers are coming (slightly) to their senses. If you want him, you better be a little bolder than ADP. If he's not there, Mark Ingram is a fantasy football happy place in a Baltimore offense well-suited to his skills.

You got your fill of running backs or you took a back and Mahomes (good job!) then take a shot on Chris Godwin or George Kittle if you're going for the gusto.

As Damien Williams' value continues to plummet, I may develop more interest in him but I think he's a competent talent in a high-powered offense with two compelling talents on the depth chart who could easily usurp his value in various ways (More on this soon at Footballguys).

Round 4 Commentary: Here's the second part of where I double-up on the receivers if I am not picking in a format that allows for three NFL starting running backs in a lineup. Tyler Lockett is my favorite and although his past volume may scream gadget player due for a regression, his tape screams every-down talent moved to the most volume-heavy role in the Seattle passing offense.

It's more likely than many realize that Lockett could earn target volume that's a lot closer to Tyler Boyd or Cooper Kupp but with more big-play upside. Even if Ridley's dropped passes don't improve from his rookie year, his surrounding talent bolsters matchups that will be the envy of many NFL receivers. He's the best upside play of the receivers in this tier after Lockett.

I'd rather roll with the upside of these "good, but not great" fantasy wide receivers than the upside of Sony Michel, James White, and Phillip Lindsay. There are too many circumstances where we can see their fantasy production siphoned by another option on the depth chart.

Tier 5 Commentary: I like David Montgomery as a dynasty option and I'm sure we'll all like moments of Montgomery's production this year. However, it will take two backs to get hurt for Montgomery to be a bell cow that fantasy players want as a lead back. If it happens, it's based on circumstance rather than valid analysis of the Bears offense. At best, Montgomery will be a strong RB2 if Mike Davis doesn't play.

I have no quarrel with any fantasy player who covets the upside of O.J. Howard or Evan Engram. Because I like the bang-for-the-buck of options I can grab later, I'd rather consider the likely volume of D.J. Moore and his big-play skill after the catch or the upside of A.J. Green if he returns healthy enough to play at his top-12 potential after minor ankle surgery.

None of these options are bad but if you think one of the four receivers discussed in Tier 4 will fall to you, I'd prefer one of them.

Tier 6 Commentary: The safest back on this list is Tevin Coleman. The best back with a combination of safety and upside is Austin Ekeler. The backs with the greatest upside are Derrius Guice and Kenyan Drake. If you want a strong No.4 back in a "start-three" lineup, this is a decent tier to consider, but there are other backs available a little later with worthwhile talents and situations.

Mike Williams and Allen Robinson aren't exactly the same style of receivers but their paths to fantasy value both have ceilings. Williams is due to Keenan Allen and Hunter Henry whereas Robinson's is Mitchell Trubisky still in the Bortles-ish phase of his development.

Dante Pettis offers the greatest reward but the risks are higher now that Deebo Samuel and Jalen Hurd are both playing well, which could lower Pettis' targets in the pecking order of the offense or even render him a non-starting contributor. I will continue taking Pettis but I might even substitute Marvin Jones at this spot so I can consider choices that I really like in the next tier.

If D.J. Moore is gone in the fifth, I might throw caution to the wind and consider Jones, Pettis, and one of Drew Brees, Sammy Watkins, or Royce Freeman in rounds 5-7. See below.

Updated 8/25: I like Duke Johnson Jr's talent but local Cleveland writer Jake Burns, who doesn't an excellent analysis of the Browns, has been critical of Johnson's injuries that seem to last a game but then he's healthy for the next only for the same pattern to occur. We'll see if Johnson can stay healthy enough to fulfill his potential. I'm not keen on buying in.

Round 7 Commentary: Every season there are tiers packed with players that I want and value more than my peers. It makes the ADP cafeteria line a tedious exercise and potentially damaging to team builds if I remain in place and graciously accept lukewarm chipped beef with a blue hue when I could have made a beeline for the fresh watermelon salad.

This year, Jones, Freeman, Brees, and Carson Wentz are compelling options. And if you don't care the Miles Sanders fumbled the ball at Penn State with a higher rate per touch than any quality prospect that I've seen in years, then I'm sure you'll add him to the list.

Updated 8/19: However, I'm removing Sanders from my list after giving him a C- prior to last week's game. This runs counter to the current narrative about Sanders, who earned a number of solid gains on Friday night against the Jaguars. However, the positive outcomes continued to enable a negative overall process with Sanders game, which is not pressing the line of scrimmage close enough to truly set up his blocks.

Much like C.J. Spiller and Laurence Maroney—past early picks with terrific athletic ability—Sanders is impressing with athletic maneuvers that aren't backed by a sound foundation of conceptual skills that will help him generate quality runs in tougher scenarios. LeSean McCoy and Jamaal Charles figured this out by year two, and Sanders may acclimate as the scenarios force him.

However, from my experience of watching over a thousand running backs with a detailed process, the players more likely to struggle with the key conceptual skills that create creases are the backs who can't execute these skills accurately in easier scenarios. For now, Sanders' athletic ability is impressing but I need to see evidence of refinement and ball security once the competition ramps up another notch during the regular season because nothing he's shown is new or better than what I've seen at Penn State.

Alvin Kamara and Sony Michel fumbled at a high rate and they addressed the issue as rookies. They were exceptional cases but sure, Augustus, go ahead and drink from the chocolate river after I warned you not to...

Updated 8/19: You may have to go as high as the fifth round to nab Josh Gordon. However, if you can land him in rounds 7-8, he's a more manageable selection for moderate- and low-risk fantasy drafters.

Updated 8/25: Luck is retired, Brissett is solid but uninspiring, and Chad Kelly is the option to consider after he returns from a two-game suspension. If Brissett and the Colts struggle, Kelly will earn an extended tryout because he's been that good during preseason games despite it occurring against reserves.

Round 8 Commentary: Why I probably won't take one Wentz or Brees is Russell Wilson (among several other quarterbacks available later). Depending on the draft environment, Jones or Freeman might fall here and I can wait for them as well.

If I'm desperate for a contributor for my backfield, Penny and Murray don't overwhelm me with excitement but they are still quality options. Penny should earn a lot of catches and at a consistent rate that gives him flex value with greater upside if Carson gets hurt.

Murray might not get the full Mark Ingram role but he's first in line and working with a good offensive line.

Round 9 Commentary: Do you want back-to-back quarterbacks with top-five fantasy upside but at a mid-round discount. Rounds 8-10 is the safest stretch to make a move.

Since running backs with compelling athletic ability but questionable processing skills isn't my thing, I'm happy with Peyton Barber here if I need more running backs. If there are no surprises, LeSean McCoy has been told he's the 'the guy' in the Bills' backfield. He's one of the great NFL runners of the past 12-15 years but is his offense a better situation than Barber? I don' think so and there's enough depth that McCoy's potential for strong volume is lower than Barber, who has Ronald Jones to contend with.

The only thing keeping McCoy from earning lower than a C is his talent and the prospect of a better offensive line in Buffalo. It's hard for me to believe that the Bills would add three backs and still give McCoy feature back touches.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling is the upside pick here. Get him a little earlier than his ADP and realize that yes, he has earned the starting job as the second wide receiver (since June) and he's an emerging star.

I have been a fan of Keke Coutee since he was catching crazy-good targets from Mahomes at Texas Tech and I'm hoping the ankle injury doesn't limit his top-end speed all year. Until we get a strong indication that he's 100 percent—and it's unlikely we will on the field—Valdes-Scantling and Curtis Samuel are more compelling receiver options.

Of course, I'll gladly take Jared Goff and/or Dak Prescott as part of a quarterback-by-committee. If took Patrick Mahomes II or Aaron Rodgers, I'm waiting later for my second passer and getting all of the emerging receiver talent or solid contributing runners I can add to my roster.

Round 10 Commentary: Jared Goff and Philip Rivers...Dak Prescott and Rivers...Goff and Prescott? A tasty tomato-tomato situation this year, if you ask me.

This is the area where I begin considering tight ends if I didn't take Travis Kelce or Kittle. All accounts indicate that Delanie Walker is healthy and looks like his old self. That's enough to count on another year of fantasy value.

I probably like the idea of what Matt Breida and can do when unchained from a committee situation more than the reality of it actually happening. Breida could very well earn the Devonta Freeman spot, especially after Jerick McKinnon's setback and the fact that Breida earned the top spot on the August 7 depth chart despite Coleman getting consistent first-team reps throughout camp.

It's possible that Coleman will actually remain in his old role, which could make Breida far more valuable than his ADP. At the price of a 10th-round pick (if you're reaching a bit to make sure you get him...), it's worth finding out.

Updated 8/25: Darwin Thompson moves up to this tier were you should comfortably land him. However, it's a crowded tier, so you're banking on the upside that is now less likely than some of the players in this current tier. If you can land him in the 11th-13th, that's better.

Round 11 Commentary: The most promising receiver in Chicago is Anthony Miller. Allen Robinson fans will beg to differ, but I'm waiting for him to string consecutive seasons together of value. With Trubisky struggling in camp, according to some sources, taking Miller as the middle-of-the-field safety blanket who can also win outside seems like the safest choice and also the one with the greatest upside in the Bear's passing game.

If I'm embracing huge risk at quarterback, a Lamar Jackson-led quarterback committee is the one I seek. This means I'll be considering the likes of Jimmy Garoppolo or Matthew Stafford to round it out—maybe all three if I'm confident about my non-passers once I reach this stage of the draft.

Round 12 Commentary: Justin Jackson is a no-brainer at this point. Tyrell Williams is a solid option, too. Since I like to wait on the tight end position and take players who are older, wiser, and still skillful, Greg Olsen is right behind Walker on this list.

If I'm going to take a chance on a younger option, I'm going in the opposite direction to the extreme and taking T.J. Hockenson, who is the No.2 tight end in Detroit behind Jesse James but has drawn considerable praise and has likely earned red-zone packages, at worst. It appears the holdup for Hockenson is recognizing NFL coverages and making the correct adjustments on option routes and more advanced line calls as a blocker.

Round 13 Commentary: Everyone thinks Jimmy Graham is done. The funny thing is if he and Aaron Rodgers earn a better red zone connection, his sub-par yardage production from last year was still better than 2017's top-five fantasy season in Seattle. If I took Kelce or Kittle and Hockenson isn't in the cards, I'll take a shot on Graham.

Otherwise, Alexander Mattison and Photos provided by Imagn Images