The Gut Check No.477: Running Backs For Upside Down Drafts

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What is Upside Down Drafting?

If you're new to the Upside Down Draft Strategy (UDD) and it's the first time you've read about this topic, you've stumbled into the middle of the story. Begin here for the basics or go here for a more exhaustive look.

For simplicity's sake, I often endorsed waiting until the fifth round to take a running back. However, the truest intent of UDD is to adjust your mindset and strategy just enough that you're not in the same predictable cattle call as everyone else. When you're approaching the draft in a different order than your peers, your mind is opened up to pools of talent at different times than the herd and you're now beginning runs rather than caught in the middle of them.

The most accurate way to grasp the strategy is to select non-running back positions with four of your first six picks and preferably only one back during your first three while increasing the position as your priority choices between rounds 5-16. In other words, only pick two running backs within your first six picks and then at least 4-6 with backs during your next 10 picks.

Now that we're caught up, let's look at the mid-round PPR backs that I endorse for this year's UDD Strategy.

This list will not be a comprehensive look at every running back. If you want to know my thoughts on each player, read the comments in my rankings. If you're thinking, "I'm going to email or Tweet Matt and ask him, 'what about [insert name of back not listed below that you maybe-possibly-kinda like]?'" it will be nice to hear from you but I'll still tell you to read the comments in my rankings.

If I have any major updates to my preferred list of mid-round backs, I'll keep you posted weekly in subsequent Gut Checks.

This article will be drafting for PPR leagues with 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, 2 non-QB flex spots, 1 PK, and 1 TD.

Early-round OPtions (For those with a top-five pick)

If you have a top-five pick or, you find this strategy appealing but emotionally you need a pair of arm floats to wade into this strategy pool, here are backs I find the most appealing because of their skill and surrounding talent that lessens the potential for "down weeks."

• Christian McCaffrey - Go ahead and fear the lack of red-zone love while others pick a back who has 20 Tds during his first two seasons.
• Ezekiel Elliott - As long as the renegotiation gets settled within 2-3 weeks of the season, I'm good with the best back in football.
• Alvin Kamara - Strictly thinking about fantasy value, Kamara is a blend of McCaffrey's safety and Elliott's upside.
• James Conner - He's going to catch a lot of balls because the dearth of receiver talent will lead to check-downs. Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown will miss each other.
• Nick Chubb - If I were starting a real football team, Chubb and Elliott would be neck-and-neck in skill assessment and I'd give Chubb's professionalism the edge. There's a huge upside to this season that isn't baked into his projections.
• Devonta Freeman - Ito Smith may not make it out of his depth chart alive this summer. Freeman has top-5 upside at his position.
• Kerryon Johnson - No Theo Riddick? The receiving touches will be split among Johnson and C.J. Anderson. Think of Johnson as a more powerful McCaffrey with a lower ceiling.

If you want to read more about what I think, see the comments in my rankings.

THE GUT CHECK'S PREFERRED MID-ROUND (4TH-10TH) RUNNERS

I'm listing two or three runners per round as well as an extra runner that is worth reaching for if both of the prescribed backs in those rounds are gone. In italics are one or two non-runners in each round I value. I called it my Non-RB Exception. I've found that using 1-2 rounds between the 5-10 block for a non-runner strengthens the balance of the team. This is based on PPR formats with 12 teams.

If you land at least five of these backs by the 10th round you should have a solid start to your Upside Down Draft. ADP is based on PPR leagues because PPR formats are well tailored for Upside Down Drafts.

I recommend all the names listed, but the underlined players are my favorites. In some cases, I've underlined multiple players in the same round so if you aren't enamored with the list from the previous or following rounds, you have my permission (if you need it for some weird reason) to reach for one to land multiple underlined guys. However, don't take that underline as a reason to fixate on the player, the strategy is about casting a wide net on a block of backs.

This year, labeling the list so you can think of your draft in dimensions of risk friendliness:

• High-floor, high-upside (potential top-5 player at the position and no worse than a low-end starter.
• High floor, medium-upside (no worse than a low-end starter with upside as low-end QB1/RB1/WR1/TE1).
• Medium floor, high-upside (no worse than high-end flex with top-5 position potential).
• Medium floor, medium-upside (no worse than high-end flex with low-end every-week starter upside).
• Low floor, high-upside (a strong boom-bust element with non-starter floor and top-5 upside).

There are also symbols next to some players to help you understand where you should consider transcending ADP values to maximize your values independent of the herd mentality:

• (↑) - I'd take this player one round above his listing so I can pick another player from that listed round.
• (↓) - I'd rather see if this player slides to the round below his listing.
• (†) - Only if none of the other players are on this list
• (υ) - If he wasn't undervalued by ADP, I'd probably take him one round above his listing to ensure he's available. Priority pick in this round.

In at least four of these six rounds (and I recommend five) you want to take running backs. If you've been using this strategy in the past or you feel comfortable doing so, you may also consider taking fewer runners from this block if you feel strong enough about 1-2 of the backs listed after round 10.

RB Block: Rounds 4-10 (Consider using two Picks for WR/TE/QB)

*"F" = The player's potential floor.

* "U" = The player's potential upside.

Upsides: "High" = Top 15 at the position. "Medium" = Top 24-Top 36. "Low" = Top 48 or worse.

Floors: "High" = Top 15-24. "Medium" = Top 24-Top-36. "Low" = Top 48 or worse.

There are numerous ways to approach this list, including the recommendation of six rookies and four sets of players on the same depth chart. I'm not intentionally recommending handcuffs; it's a by-product of players I like for their talent and there will be more potential handcuffs recommended for the available players after the 10th round.

PROFILING THE 5-10 BLOCK

Round 4 (In order of preference)

1. Kerryon Johnson
2. Mark Ingram
3. Phillip Lindsay
4. Robert Woods
5. Andrew Luck

Johnson offers the greatest upside because the Lions released Riddick and rookie Ty Johnson is not a refined product. The addition of T.J. Hockenson will add another weapon in this ground attack as both an in-line blocker and play-action receiver who will create binds for linebackers and safeties in the box with dual run/pass responsibilities.

He may lose opportunities inside the five to C.J. Anderson. However, Johnson also proved valuable as a detached receiver from the line or the backfield, which means he might also be on the field at the same time Anderson is in the backfield.

This will give Johnson upside that places him closer to the distribution of touches we see with Christian McCaffrey.

Baltimore has talented runners in its stable, but Ingram is the most proven commodity. He should excel behind the Ravens' line.

The advantages Ingram will earn will be similar to the presence of Alvin Kamara when Kamara was used outside and Ingram was in the backfield. In fact, the threat of Jackson as a runner is likely more consistent as the quarterback than Kamara in selected sets.

Although the Broncos are changing to a zone ground game that will be a better match for Royce Freeman, look for Phillip Lindsay to earn the Tevin Coleman role as the receiving option, outside runner, and change of pace with enough volume to deliver solid fantasy RB2 production. He may even deliver better production than the undervalued Freeman in PPR formats.

I was higher on Henry this spring, but I have concerns about him earning enough favorable game scripts and matchups this year to award him a high ceiling of potential. The same is also true of Jacobs unless he usurps Jalen Richard's role and rarely leaves the field.

Both backs are worth taking, but Robert Woods' consistency in a strong offense and the weapons Andrew Luck has gained in addition to an improved offensive line makes them more compelling options when building with the UDD strategy than Henry and Jacobs.

Round 5

1. Dante Pettis
2. Jordan Howard
3. Russell Wilson
4. Rashaad Penny
5. Sammy Watkins

The Patriots like using three backs and without a great receiving corps, James White will likely earn another strong season as a receiver in this offense. Couple the diminished receiving talent with Sony Michel's knee and White could lead this backfield in touches. Post similar production as 2019 is not so far-fetched of an idea.

Russell Wilson and Lockett achieved fantastic efficiency last year—and Lockett didn't have the frequency of two-way-go situations that he'll earn from Doug Baldwin's old role in the slot. Expect a career-year from Lockett in terms of receptions and yards.

Godwin is one of the best young receivers in the league. He's an underrated red-zone threat with deep speed and physicality. If Jameis Winston had a more consistent track record, Godwin would be valued 2-3 rounds higher.

Kupp is healthy enough to work in training camp without restriction and he's the most trusted option in the Rams' red-zone passing game. He has top-10 upside as a PPR receiver and a top-15 median production.

There's the potential for Rashaad Penny to eclipse Chris Carson as the lead back and potentially the featured back with the vast majority of the backfield touches. There's also potential that Pete Carroll dies his hair fluorescent green.

Seattle likes to use 2-3 backs in a rotation. Penny may overtake Carson sometime this year as the lead back but Carson's floor will remain high enough that he'll likely make good on his ADP.

We may have to wait until the regular season to determine how much Kalen Ballage has improved between the tackles, which means betting on Kenyan Drake is a good idea. If Ballage falters early, Drake could easily have top-15 fantasy upside at his position.

Even if Ballage produces, look for Drake to remain a strong PPR option who performs to his current draft value. Keep in mind that the current coaching staff has ties to New England (head coach Brian Flores and coordinator Chad O'Shea) and Denver (running backs coach Eric Studesville).

Both the Patriots and Broncos had reputations for touting one player during camp and it not work out. Studesville was around for the Knowshon Moreno, Willis McGahee, Montee Ball trio that morphed into the McGahee-Moreno-Ronnie HIllman fiasco and then the C.J. Anderson emergence that Denver was reluctant to exploit and they added the ever-underachieving Devontae Booker into the mix.

Remember likely emergence of Jonas Gray? How about Shane Vereen? Would Stevan Ridley have a strong follow-up to a top-10 season or would the Law Firm BenJarvis Green-Ellis have another year of top-15 production?

LeGarrette Blount played well but he kept getting written off in favor of Vereen, Gray, Ridley, White, Bolden, and even Tyler Gaffney. The ever-present and touted Rex Burkhead was always going to overtake Dion Lewis, too. What about Mike Gilislee?

These three coaches may only be guilty by association for the convoluted mess of these two backfields, but until we see good results, I'm not counting on the guy touted in Dolphins training camp as the starter because last year, Ballage had a lot of work to do.

I'd rather bet on Drake, who will still have an RB2 floor in PPR leagues and RB1 upside if Ballage struggles. This is superior to Tarik Cohen, who is a decent selection here but lacks the top-end upside due to the presence of David Montgomery and Mike Davis.

Montgomery has the high-end RB2 upside because he'll likely earn red-zone touches and enough backfield routes to become a weekly starter. However, he has a lower floor than Cohen because Davis is good enough to turn this into a three-headed backfield if Montgomery struggles.

Rodgers is worth your consideration if you wind up in a spot where the fifth-round is tapped out of the suggested players.

Round 6

1. Derrius Guice
2. D.J. Moore
3. Lamar Miller
4. Baker Mayfield
5. Mike Williams
6. Tevin Coleman

If his ADP remains intact over the course of the next 2-3 weeks, I'll be taking Dante Pettis a round earlier than his value, and skipping the players on this list unless one of them falls to the seventh round. If Miles Sanders begins putting the ball on the ground during the preseason, I'd consider the same with Jordan Howard.

If neither of those courses appeals to you, let's just look at this group as-is. Guice is healthy enough to practice without restrictions, which is an excellent sign. The potential loss of Trent Williams hurts the Washington offensive line, but this unit hasn't stayed intact for years now and Guice is a skilled enough player to deliver fantasy RB2 value with a patchwork line.

Still, his downside is low enough that I just explained why I'd leapfrog Guice and the rest of this group with players from the seventh round, so keep that in mind. I also saw Guice's value drop well past the sixth round in several of my mock drafts.

Moore is a productive slot receiver who will likely earn his biggest plays from this position despite the fact that Norv Turner will move Moore and Curtis Samuel around. Samuel is earning a lot of love from Hipster Harmon and his fantasy acolytes, but expect a balanced enough distribution of passing targets that Moore at least earns his pre-draft value.

Miller has been a what-you-see-is-what-you-get fantasy option who usually outperforms his value. I don't believe the Texans have another runner to overtake Miller on this roster unless Damarea Crockett plays to his potential or DOnta Foreman outperforms my doubts about his injury rehab. Miller isn't a great bargain but he has been a solid choice and likely remains a such as long as you don't hear rumblings about the two mentioned above.

Mayfield offers elite fantasy upside if all of his targets play to their potential and the offensive line plays as it did down the stretch of 2018. If not, his floor will still remain within low-end QB1 territory. You're paying for the upside with Mayfield here and not what I recommending doing in light of the other values in this range.

Williams has a solid WR2 ceiling and his floor doesn't drop too far below his current ADP value as a high-end WR3. Philip Rivers showed trust in Williams and he should benefit from the attention paid to Keenan Allen and Hunter Henry.

Tevin Coleman has the big-play ability to deliver borderline RB1 fantasy production in this offense. However, he's on a depth chart that could care less about his potential. Coleman will likely have the same role he had with Kyle Shanahan in Atlanta. Consider his change of scenery a lateral move for fantasy output.

Round 7

1. Marvin Jones
2. Dante Pettis
3. Jordan Howard
4. Russell Wilson
5. Rashaad Penny
6. Sammy Watkins

Jones has a variability of that spans rounds 6-8, depending on the draft. When mocking with Footballguys rankings (see below), I took him in this range based on my draft spot.

Pettis has fantasy WR1 upside and a top-24 floor, which makes him the best value of the players on this Round 7 list. Howard earns more disdain than love from the fantasy community but until Sanders proves he can hold onto the ball, I'll place bets on a seventh-round fantasy pick with a history of RB1 and RB2 production despite lacking great receiving chops.

Although my rankings to reflect Wilson's upside, if the Seahawks receiving corps emerges the preseason unscathed I'll be placing more bets on Wilson's upside as a borderline top-five fantasy passer. Wilson's teammate Penny worked with Marshall Faulk during the offseason. Most people have no idea what that work actually entailed or how beneficial it will actually be, but's word-candy for the nutritionally-starved fantasy community.

At worst, Penny replaces Mike Davis and earns fantasy RB3 value. At best, he overtakes Carson and approaches fantasy RB1 upside.

I can't give up on Sammy Watkins because I appreciate his technical skills and versatility as a deep threat, possession route-runner, and red-zone prowess. The Chiefs training staff seem optimistic that it helped Watkins unlock his health, which has been the greatest hurdle for his pro career.

If true, Watkins has high-end fantasy WR2 upside in a dynamic offense. This seems outlandish but record-breaking offenses like the Colts and Broncos often had 2-3 wide receivers and tight ends with fantasy WR1-TE1 and/or WR2 upside. With a healthy and able Tyreek Hill (given he should recover in time for the opener if not by Week 3 of the preseason with a bruised quad) rejoining the team alongside Travis Kelce and the unreal Patrick Mahomes II, this is a team capable of waging an assault on Peyton Manning's single-season records he accrued in Denver.

Round 8

1. Royce Freeman/Marvin Jones
2. Anthony Miller
3. Marquez Valdes-Scantling
4. Latavius Murray
5. Darrell Henderson
6. Austin Ekeler
7. Drew Brees

My two favorite players in rounds 8-9 are Freeman and Jones. You won't be able to get them at any turn unless you pick Pettis in the sixth and take Jones-Freeman at the 7-8 turn—one round earlier than prescribed. I'll be considering it in August drafts, I have a higher-risk style than a majority of my readers.

Jones is a long-time favorite whose health is the greatest hurdle. He will see less of safeties over the top in this Lions offense that now has an elite prospect at tight end and a pass-catching threat at running back who can also work between the tackles.

When healthy, Jones is one of the most dangerous receivers against tight coverage and he can deliver after the catch. He has a high upside and a low floor, but I'll take him at this price.

Freeman is the safest pick and a player I anticipate will see his ADP continue rising as the preseason progresses and it becomes clearer that he'll have a significant role in the offense. Consider him the Devonta to Lindsay's Tevin—which the Broncos coaching staff has already characterized—and you understand why I'd jump two rounds above his current to grab him.

See the section for Round 11 for more about Valdes-Scantling and Miller, who are climbing boards faster than the ADP is tracking it.

Murray inherits an excellent run-blocking line and a cohort at running back whose presence will often draw safeties and linebackers outside the box when sharing the field with Murray. There are questions about Murray earning Ingram's role outright or Kamara gaining a bigger share of the touches now the Ingram has moved to Baltimore, but thinking that Kamara will become the feature back is a presumption against the tendencies of Sean Payton's coaching style for many years. Expect 700-900 yards from Murray on the ground.

Although Murray and Freeman aren't the trendy picks this offseason, Henderson is one of the sexiest picks of the summer. He should deliver no worse than RB3 production in the role that Sean McVay has built for him. However, he could deliver strong RB2 upside if Malcolm Brown is called upon to replace some of Todd Gurley's work because McVay will likely lean harder on Henderson if Gurley misses time.

If seeking a better-known commodity at the position, Ekeler is the alternative. However, Ekeler will have to contend with Justin Jackson with or without Melvin Gordon in the fold and it adds risk to his ceiling and floor.

If you must, Brees is a safe pick with elite upside if the receiving corps remains healthy and can draw multiple defenders away from Michael Thomas. Even if Brees has another "down year" relative to his career in New Orleans, he isn't a mistake-prone passer despite having the skills to attack with aggression.

Round 9

1. Royce Freeman
2. Jared Goff
3. Dak Prescott
4. Anthony Miller/Marquez Valdes-Scantling
5. Kareem Hunt
6. Ben Roethlisberger
7. Kyler Murray
8. Tom Brady
9. Ronald Jones

If Freeman is still available here, it's a greater risk to pass him up when considering the running back distribution history of Denver's offensive scheme. Even so, there are drafts where he has fallen to the 10th round.

Goff and Prescott are two of my prime targets when waiting on passers because both have a full complement of weapons and have a track record of fantasy production when well-armed. I've been taking them at the 9-10 turn.

The rest of these picks are upside plays with notable floors. Hunt's value depends on Chubb's health or the Browns running away with the AFC. Roethlisberger should still have a ton of volume but the efficiency will dip without Antonio Brown. There's potential for it to dip a lot.

I'm counting on Murray to have strong fantasy QB1 numbers for half of the year. He's a better boom-bust member of a QB by committee than a passer who leads your starting lineup. Brady is difficult to discount based on his storied history but without Rob Gronkowski, Josh Gordon, or a truly healthy Demaryius Thomas, it's difficult to fully trust him outplaying his current value.

Jones is on this list in case the buzz about him isn't shallow information based on his physique and optimistic hype campaigns by the coaching staff to pump Jones up through the media. There are seven players from Round 10 I'd prefer right now.

Round 10

1. Dak Prescott
2. Anthony Miller/Marquez Valdes-Scantling
3. Philip Rivers
4. Delanie Walker
5. Peyton Barber
6. Dede Westbrook
7. Austin Hooper
8. Damien Harris
9. Nyheim Hines

If you passed on Prescott in Round 9, he's an even better value now. Rivers has the weapons to deliver 3-5 rounds above his current asking price. I'm happing drafting this pair as my quarterback depth chart when I can.

Unless I'm finding ways to grab Travis Kelce or Zach Ertz, I'm not even thinking about tight ends until Delanie Walker and beyond. Walker is healthy and has the best on-field relationship with Marcus Mariota among his teammates.

You and the other fantasy analysts you read may turn your noses up at Barber, but Ronald Jones has a lot to prove. As stated before, if Jones beats out Barber and earns the lead role, it's a positive sign that he's in store for a top-15 season at his position because Barber is that sound of a player despite lacking Jones' scintillating speed and acceleration.

Hooper has top-five upside if he can earn more red-zone looks. Dirk Koetter has a history of creating red-zone efficiency with his tight ends and the Falcons believe Hooper has incrementally grown to the point that he's on the verge of a breakout.

Skeptical about Sony Michel's 50-year-old knees? Damien Harris lacks Michel's top-end potential but his floor is a lot higher due to similar versatility and stronger health. He may be the best bet between the two backs and his availability has a wider span (high and low) than the other backs on the list.

My friend and colleague, Dwain McFarland, is higher on Hines' upside than I am because after looking at the Eagles' past 4-6 years of running back play as the model for the Colts' offense, and it appears that Hines has already reached Darren Sproles' top performances during Frank Reich's years in Philadelphia. I don't see much room for growth in his game, but even his median production should exceed his current round value.

RB BLOCK: ROUNDS 11-20 (CONSIDER USING 5-6 Picks FOR DEF/K/WR/TE/QB)

There are also several backs I like with ADPs well after the 10th round that you should consider taking after you pick your block of backs. Depending on the ADP of the other position options you're considering, you may find it worthwhile to reach for some of these options so you can get who you want elsewhere.

*"F" = The player's potential floor.

* "U" = The player's potential upside.

*"High" = Top 15 at the position. "Medium" = Top 24. "Low" = Top 48 or worse.

Preferred picks Between rounds 11-20

Round 11

1. Anthony Miller/Marques Valdes-Scantling
2. Keke Coutee
3. Curtis Samuel
4. Dion Lewis
5. Matt Breida
6. Damien Harris
7. Jaylen Samuels
8. D.K. Metcalf
9. Adrian Peterson

I expect Valdes-Scantling's value to climb a little more and I'd happily take him as early as Round 8 if he continues to perform well and my primary options on the list aren't there. There's enough buzz about Samuel that there will be a contingent of fantasy players who will feel the same about Samuel as I do about Valdes-Scantling. In fact, his value is higher than this spot in a lot of the mocks that I've done.

I prefer Coutee because Samuel is likely behind Greg Olsen, Christian McCaffrey, and possibly D.J. Moore in the pecking order and Coutee might only be behind DeAndre Hopkins—especially if Will Fuller is slow to regain confidence in his knee or has yet another injury woe.

Lewis, Breida, Harris, and Samuels are essentially interchangeable on my list. I prefer Lewis to the other three because of his experience, versatility, and likely a significant role to begin the season. However, Breida has the shot to become the 49ers' Devonta Freeman if Jerick McKinnon continues struggling with his health.

Harris has equal upside Lewis and Breida but equal-to-greater competition the more experience Breida when it comes to claiming a meaningful role. Samuels will have a role to begin the year but it may not be as big as some anticipated earlier this spring. His receiving skills, the Steeler offensive line, and the loss of Antonio Brown could make Samuels an excellent handcuff to James Conner if you believe in adding them to your roster.

Metcalf is the rookie with massive upside but his age and inexperience place his floor below the basement. Old man Peterson has the range of upside-downside as Metcalf due to Derrius Guice. Knowing I might get Peterson a round or two later if Guice remains healthy, I'd prefer Metcalf.

However, in a vacuum, I'll take Peterson because his Old Man Game that was bad-ass last year despite performing a tattered Washington offensive line. Plus, Metcalf looks like he might run right out of one of his leg muscles at any moment.

Round 12

1. Lamar Jackson
2. Anthony Miller
3. T.J. Hockenson
4. Greg Olsen
5. Matt Brieda
6. DeSean Jackson
7. Kalen Ballage

There will be drafts where I will wait on Jackson as my first quarterback and follow up with Stafford in the 13th or 14th. Expect Jackson to continue running the ball a lot on set plays that the Ravens offense devises. These are safer plays than pocket scrambles and it sets up the opposing defense for bigger plays in all facets of the gameplan.

If I already took care of my quarterback situation, I love taking Miller for his high-volume upside and versatility.