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Staff Confidence Pool (No Spread) Week 6

Will Grant's Staff Confidence Pool (No Spread) Week 6
By Will Grant, October 12, 2017

Staff Confidence Pool (No Spread) Week 6
Photo: Imagn Images

Looking to dominate your office pool this season? 19 Footballguys.com staff members are here to help you out. Each week they will pick the winners of every NFL game, and rank their selections based on how confident they are that the team will win. The most confident pick gets 16 points, and the least confident gets just 1. We'll even total up everyone's picks so you can get an 'overall consensus' on who our staff think will be the most likely winners. Each week we'll announce the weekly winners, and track the overall record for the entire season. A couple of things to note before we get to the picks:

  • Picks for this pool are straight up (no point spread considered). 
  • Picks are due on Wednesday nights, and may not reflect any late-breaking news. If your league allows for last minute changes, please make adjustments to your office pool accordingly. 
  • Our staffers also play in weekly picks Against The Spread, and Survivor Style 'Pick one Winner each week' formats as well. Check out the other weekly articles for more help with those type of games. 

RESULTS FROM LAST WEEK

Going into the Monday night game, James Brimacombe had things locked up. Had the Bears pulled it out, he would still have had the top spot. Wimer gave him a heck of a run with the Vikings pulled it out at the end, but ultimately he couldn't catch Brimacombe. As we've pointed out before, in your normal office pool, if you are allowed to change Monday night picks, it would have been smart for Wimer to switch his pick to Chicago. Had the Bears pulled it out, the 12 confidence points would have given him a clear win instead of coming in second to Brimacombe with Minnesota. In our pool we don't allow for late swap, but hopefully you get the idea. In a week of big upsets, Brimacombe only missed two games. Wimer was the only person to pick the Jaguar upset, but he missed the Rams and lost 14 points on that game. 

Staffer NE TEN SF CAR BUF LAC ARI JAC NYJ SEA BAL GB KC MIN MNF TOT
  TB MIA IND DET CIN NYG PHI PIT CLE LAR OAK DAL HOU CHI TOT Pts
Brimacombe NE MIA IND DET CIN LAC PHI PIT NYJ SEA BAL GB KC MIN 42 81
  12 11 7 10 9 2 13 14 3 8 1 6 5 4    
Wimer NE MIA IND DET CIN LAC PHI JAC NYJ LAR OAK GB HOU MIN 42 80
  10 9 8 7 5 13 5 11 4 14 3 2 1 12    
Grant NE MIA IND CAR CIN NYG PHI PIT NYJ LAR OAK GB KC CHI 36 70
  10 9 5 4 12 11 13 14 8 2 7 6 3 1    
Roberts NE MIA IND CAR BUF NYG PHI PIT NYJ LAR BAL GB KC MIN 35 69
  12 4 8 2 7 9 13 14 5 6 3 11 10 1    
Knotts NE TEN IND CAR BUF NYG PHI PIT NYJ SEA OAK GB KC MIN 39 67
  14 13 2 4 5 6 9 11 1 7 3 10 8 12    
Tuccitto NE MIA IND DET BUF NYG PHI PIT NYJ SEA OAK DAL KC MIN 49 66
  9 4 8 7 3 10 14 13 6 2 1 5 11 12    
Garda NE TEN IND DET BUF NYG PHI PIT NYJ LAR OAK GB KC MIN 47 65
  12 4 6 11 5 2 9 14 7 1 3 10 8 13    
Mamula NE TEN IND CAR BUF LAC PHI PIT NYJ LAR OAK GB KC MIN 40 64
  13 10 9 2 8 1 12 14 6 5 4 7 3 11    
Holloway NE TEN IND CAR BUF NYG PHI PIT NYJ SEA OAK GB HOU MIN 39 64
  12 7 9 1 4 10 14 13 8 3 5 6 2 11    
Miglio NE MIA IND DET CIN NYG PHI PIT CLE SEA OAK DAL HOU MIN 45 62
  12 5 10 7 6 8 11 9 2 4 13 3 1 14    
Pasquino NE TEN SF CAR BUF LAC PHI PIT NYJ SEA OAK GB KC MIN 44 59
  11 6 13 3 8 4 10 12 14 1 7 2 9 5    
Feery NE MIA IND DET BUF NYG PHI PIT NYJ LAR BAL GB KC MIN 45 57
  13 2 3 10 4 8 9 14 11 12 1 6 7 5    
Bitonti NE MIA IND DET BUF NYG PHI PIT NYJ LAR OAK GB HOU MIN 48 56
  12 1 6 2 10 7 13 14 11 9 3 5 4 8    
Haseley NE MIA IND DET BUF NYG PHI PIT NYJ SEA OAK DAL KC MIN 43 55
  7 5 6 8 1 13 9 14 10 3 12 2 11 4    
Heiser NE MIA IND DET BUF NYG PHI PIT NYJ LAR BAL DAL HOU MIN 38 54
  13 12 11 10 9 8 7 14 6 5 4 3 2 1    
Wood NE TEN SF DET BUF LAC PHI PIT NYJ SEA BAL DAL KC MIN 38 49
  14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1    
Larkin NE TEN IND DET CIN NYG PHI PIT CLE LAR BAL DAL HOU CHI 47 49
  12 7 8 9 11 10 13 14 2 6 5 4 3 1    
Hicks TB MIA IND DET CIN NYG PHI PIT CLE LAR OAK DAL HOU CHI 37 28
  1 2 7 12 6 8 13 14 4 9 5 10 11 3    
Away NE TEN SF CAR BUF LAC ARI JAC NYJ SEA BAL GB KC MIN    
Total Pts 198 60 25 16 74 29 0 11 106 33 18 71 77 114    
Home TB MIA IND DET CIN NYG PHI PIT CLE LAR OAK DAL HOU CHI    
Total Pts 1 64 113 104 49 110 195 219 8 69 66 30 24 5    
Tot Conf Pts 199 124 138 120 123 139 195 230 114 102 84 101 101 119    

For the second week in a row, the Steelers cost the staff big time, and 219 confidence points were lost on the Jaguar upset. Many of the staff picked the Giants to finally win, but their depleted WR corps cost them and the staff another 100 confidence points. 

OVERALL RANKINGS

Haseley struggled this week, only posting 55 points. That and Brimacombe's big win shifted the top spots on the leaderboard, allowing Grant to climb back into the top spot. There are only 35 confidence points between the #10 and the #1 spot, so there will still be some decent movement over the next few weeks. 

Staffer Wk01 Wk02 Wk03 Wk04 Wk05 Wk06 Wk07 Wk08 Wk09 Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17 Total
Grant 88 117 80 81 70                         436
Brimacombe 85 112 77 79 81                         434
Haseley 85 111 86 89 55                         426
Roberts 90 112 67 86 69                         424
Tuccitto 86 104 74 83 66                         413
Knotts 88 110 70 75 67                         410
Holloway 93 112 55 80 64                         404
Mamula 81 113 66 80 64                         404
Wimer 78 101 63 80 80                         402
Garda 85 111 67 73 65                         401
Bitonti 78 105 73 85 56                         397
Feery 79 111 58 87 57                         392
Pasquino 66 100 77 88 59                         390
Wood 102 90 81 65 49                         387
Miglio 72 99 67 84 62                         384
Larkin 82 100 65 74 49                         370
Hicks 71 97 85 87 28                         368
Heiser 42 89 81 79 54                         345

THIS WEEK'S PICKS

Here are the picks for this week.

Staffer PHI GB CLE MIA SF CHI DET NE LAR TB LAC PIT NYG IND MNF TOT
  CAR MIN HOU ATL WAS BAL NO NYJ JAC ARI OAK KC DEN TEN TOT Pts
Miglio CAR GB HOU ATL WAS BAL NO NE JAC ARI OAK KC DEN TEN 44 105
  4 12 7 11 10 5 3 14 6 1 2 9 13 8    
Garda CAR GB HOU ATL WAS BAL DET NE JAC TB OAK KC DEN TEN 55 105
  10 12 14 13 8 1 5 4 7 3 2 9 11 6    
Hicks CAR MIN HOU ATL WAS BAL NO NYJ JAC ARI OAK KC DEN TEN 41 105
  3 1 13 14 12 8 9 2 4 6 5 10 11 7    
Heiser CAR GB HOU ATL WAS BAL NO NE JAC TB LAC KC DEN TEN 38 105
  2 11 13 12 9 7 6 10 5 4 3 8 14 1    
Feery PHI GB HOU ATL WAS BAL NO NYJ LAR TB OAK KC DEN TEN 39 105
  6 4 11 14 12 2 9 3 5 7 1 10 13 8    
Tuccitto CAR MIN HOU ATL WAS BAL NO NE JAC TB OAK KC DEN TEN 49 105
  5 1 14 8 13 11 6 7 9 4 2 12 10 3    
Larkin CAR GB HOU ATL WAS BAL NO NE LAR ARI LAC KC DEN TEN 48 105
  5 7 13 14 9 12 8 10 4 3 2 6 11 1    
Knotts x                             0
  x                              
Brimacombe PHI GB HOU ATL WAS BAL NO NE JAC TB LAC KC DEN TEN 44 105
  2 7 14 12 11 9 8 13 1 4 5 6 10 3    
Wood PHI GB HOU ATL SF BAL DET NE JAC TB OAK KC DEN IND 37 105
  2 10 14 12 3 7 4 11 8 5 6 9 13 1    
Haseley CAR GB HOU ATL WAS BAL NO NE JAC ARI OAK KC DEN TEN 48 105
  1 2 13 12 14 6 3 9 10 4 11 8 7 5    
Pasquino CAR GB HOU ATL SF BAL NO NE LAR TB LAC KC DEN IND 43 105
  7 10 13 12 1 6 4 11 5 8 3 9 14 2    
Mamula PHI GB HOU ATL WAS BAL NO NE JAC ARI LAC KC DEN TEN 40 105
  6 9 12 13 10 4 3 11 5 1 2 7 14 8    
Roberts PHI GB HOU ATL WAS CHI NO NE JAC TB OAK KC DEN TEN 40 105
  4 10 11 14 9 1 8 12 5 6 7 3 13 2    
Wimer PHI GB HOU ATL WAS BAL NO NE JAC TB OAK KC DEN TEN 37 105
  8 7 10 14 11 12 6 9 5 4 3 2 13 1    
Bitonti CAR GB HOU ATL WAS BAL NO NE LAR TB OAK KC DEN TEN 52 105
  3 9 11 14 12 10 2 7 4 1 6 8 13 5    
Holloway CAR GB HOU ATL WAS BAL NO NE LAR ARI OAK KC DEN TEN 44 105
  4 9 11 13 10 8 3 12 1 2 5 7 14 6    
Grant PHI GB HOU ATL WAS BAL DET NE LAR TB OAK KC DEN TEN 37 105
  3 7 10 14 13 9 5 11 4 2 6 8 12 1    
Away PHI GB CLE MIA SF CHI DET NE LAR TB LAC PIT NYG IND    
Total Pts 31 126 0 0 4 1 14 151 23 48 15 0 0 3    
Home CAR MIN HOU ATL WAS BAL NO NYJ JAC ARI OAK KC DEN TEN    
Total Pts 44 2 204 216 163 117 78 5 65 17 56 131 206 65    

HEAVY FAVORITES

Vegas has several heavy favorites this week. More than we've seen all season. With 5 games slated that have a 9.5 favorite or more, the top of everyone's leaderboard look very similar. Houston, Atlanta and Denver all have more than 200 confidence points and everyone on the staff has picked them to win. Kansas City is also a unaminous choice, but with a little less confidence since Pittsburgh is a giant question mark so far this season. Green Bay, Washington, Baltimore, New England and Tennessee all have a large majority of the staff picking them to win, with the Monday Night game being the least confident of the bunch given the injuries on both sides of the ball and the fact that picks were due on Wednesday before any real information was available. If you can delay picking this game as long as possible, it will be worth it to hold out as long as you can. 

DUAL SUPPORT

Most of the games this week have a strong favorite in Vegas. That means only a couple games have support on both sides. Tonights game between Philadelphia and Carolina is one of them, with the Panthers being a slight favorite at home. The Jaguars are a hot and cold team that can blow up or be blown up. They face the Rams who will be traveling across the country, but should still be a good match for the Jaguars. Tampa Bay is a pretty strong favorite against the Cardinals when it comes to the staff picks, but the game itself has the lowest total confidence points allocated with just 65 points. Unless you feel strongly about one of these teams, this game should be near the bottom of your confidence board. 

ODDS AND ENDS

105 is still the top score this week due to bye week teams. Devin Knotts missed the deadline for the article, but his picks will be in the recap next week. Rest assured, he'll probably pick the Browns to upset again. 

Good luck this weekend!

Photos provided by Imagn Images
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