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Staff Confidence Pool (No Spread) Week 4

Will Grant's Staff Confidence Pool (No Spread) Week 4
By Will Grant, September 28, 2017

Staff Confidence Pool (No Spread) Week 4
Photo: Imagn Images

Looking to dominate your office pool this season? 19 Footballguys.com staff members are here to help you out. Each week they will pick the winners of every NFL game, and rank their selections based on how confident they are that the team will win. The most confident pick gets 16 points, and the least confident gets just 1. We'll even total up everyone's picks so you can get an 'overall consensus' on who our staff think will be the most likely winners. Each week we'll announce the weekly winners, and track the overall record for the entire season. A couple of things to note before we get to the picks:

  • Picks for this pool are straight up (no point spread considered). 
  • Picks are due on Wednesday nights, and may not reflect any late-breaking news. If your league allows for last minute changes, please make adjustments to your office pool accordingly. 
  • Our staffers also play in weekly picks Against The Spread, and Survivor Style 'Pick one Winner each week' formats as well. Check out the other weekly articles for more help with those type of games. 

RESULTS FROM LAST WEEK

The Monday night game didn't have an impact on this week's contest, and Jeff Haseley came home with the top spot this week. It was a pretty rough week for everyone though, and Haseley finished first despite missing seven games this week. Hicks missed only six, but his confidence point allocation cost him the win by a single point. Wood also only missed six but he lost 3 of his top six contests which ultimately put him too far behind to catch up. 

Staffer LAR BAL ATL CLE NYG TB PIT MIA NO DEN HOU SEA CIN KC OAK DAL TOT
  SF JAC DET IND PHI MIN CHI NYJ CAR BUF NE TEN GB LAC WAS ARI Pts
Haseley LAR BAL ATL IND PHI MIN PIT MIA CAR DEN NE SEA GB KC WAS ARI 86
  4 11 7 12 9 8 14 5 10 6 16 3 15 13 2 1  
Hicks SF JAC DET IND PHI MIN PIT NYJ CAR BUF NE TEN GB LAC WAS ARI 85
  5 1 6 13 8 7 12 2 14 4 16 10 15 11 9 3  
Heiser LAR BAL ATL IND PHI TB PIT MIA NO DEN NE SEA GB KC OAK DAL 81
  11 10 9 8 7 6 16 5 4 13 14 3 15 12 2 1  
Wood LAR JAC ATL CLE PHI TB PIT MIA NO DEN NE TEN GB KC OAK DAL 81
  13 1 11 2 9 6 14 16 3 12 15 4 10 7 5 8  
Grant LAR BAL ATL CLE PHI TB PIT MIA CAR DEN NE TEN GB KC OAK DAL 80
  5 8 11 1 13 4 14 3 9 7 15 6 16 12 10 2  
Brimacombe LAR BAL ATL CLE PHI TB PIT MIA NO DEN NE TEN GB LAC WAS ARI 77
  12 9 8 5 13 7 11 14 6 10 16 4 15 2 3 1  
Pasquino LAR JAC ATL CLE PHI MIN PIT MIA CAR DEN NE TEN GB KC OAK DAL 77
  9 6 10 16 7 1 13 5 12 11 15 8 14 4 2 3  
Tuccitto LAR BAL ATL IND PHI MIN PIT MIA CAR DEN NE SEA GB KC OAK ARI 74
  7 10 6 1 13 5 12 9 14 4 16 2 15 11 8 3  
Bitonti LAR BAL ATL IND PHI TB PIT MIA CAR DEN NE TEN GB KC OAK DAL 73
  8 3 5 1 12 6 14 9 13 11 16 4 15 10 7 2  
Knotts LAR BAL ATL CLE PHI TB PIT MIA NO DEN NE SEA GB LAC OAK DAL 70
  16 7 6 1 11 8 13 12 5 10 14 2 15 4 9 3  
Miglio SF BAL ATL IND PHI TB PIT MIA CAR DEN NE TEN GB LAC WAS ARI 67
  7 12 11 10 9 8 14 13 5 6 15 4 16 3 2 1  
Garda LAR BAL ATL CLE PHI TB PIT MIA CAR DEN NE TEN GB KC OAK DAL 67
  4 11 10 1 9 5 16 7 6 15 14 3 12 13 8 2  
Roberts LAR BAL DET IND PHI TB PIT MIA CAR DEN NE TEN GB LAC OAK DAL 67
  11 9 2 4 12 5 14 13 8 10 16 3 15 1 7 6  
Mamula SF JAC ATL IND PHI TB PIT MIA CAR DEN NE TEN GB KC OAK DAL 66
  5 1 7 8 10 9 14 12 11 6 16 2 15 3 13 4  
Larkin LAR BAL DET CLE PHI MIN PIT MIA CAR DEN NE TEN GB KC WAS DAL 65
  8 14 7 6 11 5 12 13 9 10 16 3 15 4 1 2  
Wimer LAR BAL ATL CLE PHI MIN PIT MIA CAR DEN NE TEN GB LAC WAS DAL 63
  7 12 8 6 11 9 14 15 10 13 5 4 16 3 2 1  
Feery LAR BAL DET CLE NYG TB PIT MIA CAR DEN NE TEN GB KC OAK DAL 58
  6 11 4 1 2 3 13 14 10 12 16 7 15 9 8 5  
Holloway LAR BAL DET CLE PHI TB PIT MIA CAR DEN NE SEA GB LAC OAK DAL 55
  7 8 3 4 11 5 14 13 10 12 16 1 15 2 9 6  
Away LAR BAL ATL CLE NYG TB PIT MIA NO DEN HOU SEA CIN KC OAK DAL  
Total Pts 128 135 109 43 2 72 244 178 18 168 0 11 0 98 88 45  
Home SF JAC DET IND PHI MIN CHI NYJ CAR BUF NE TEN GB LAC WAS ARI  
Total Pts 17 9 22 57 175 35 0 2 141 4 267 62 264 26 19 9  
Tot Conf Pts 145 144 131 100 177 107 244 180 159 172 267 73 264 124 107 54  

The Rams narrowly missed being the third Thursday night upset in a row, ultimately being saved by the missed XP from the 49ers in the 49th quarter. Chicago's win over the Steelers was the biggest upset of the week, taking down 244 confidence points, the second most confident pick of the week. Other big upsets by Jacksonville, Buffalo, New Orleans and the Jets really depressed the scoring this week overall. 

OVERALL RANKINGS

Haseley's big win this week moved him all the way up to second place while Holloway's disaster dropped him to the middle of the pack. Wood rebounded after a disappointing second week and he's just 12 points out of the top spot as we head into week 4. 

Staffer Wk01 Wk02 Wk03 Wk04 Wk05 Wk06 Wk07 Wk08 Wk09 Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17 Total
Grant 88 117 80                             285
Haseley 85 111 86                             282
Brimacombe 85 112 77                             274
Wood 102 90 81                             273
Roberts 90 112 67                             269
Knotts 88 110 70                             268
Tuccitto 86 104 74                             264
Garda 85 111 67                             263
Holloway 93 112 55                             260
Mamula 81 113 66                             260
Bitonti 78 105 73                             256
Hicks 71 97 85                             253
Feery 79 111 58                             248
Larkin 82 100 65                             247
Pasquino 66 100 77                             243
Wimer 78 101 63                             242
Miglio 72 99 67                             238
Heiser 42 89 81                             212

THIS WEEK'S PICKS

Here are the picks for this week.

Staffer CHI NO TEN CIN DET BUF PIT LAR JAC CAR PHI SF NYG OAK IND WAS MNF
  GB MIA HOU CLE MIN ATL BAL DAL NYJ NE LAC ARI TB DEN SEA KC TOTAL
Miglio GB NO HOU CIN MIN ATL PIT DAL NYJ NE LAC ARI TB DEN SEA KC 49
  14 8 9 10 7 13 4 11 1 16 5 6 3 2 15 12  
Garda GB NO TEN CLE MIN ATL PIT DAL JAC NE PHI ARI TB DEN SEA KC 50
  11 10 4 5 8 12 9 13 7 14 6 3 2 1 15 16  
Hicks GB MIA HOU CLE MIN ATL BAL DAL NYJ NE LAC ARI TB DEN SEA KC 51
  16 7 8 1 2 5 4 10 3 14 6 9 13 12 15 11  
Heiser CHI NO TEN CIN DET ATL PIT DAL JAC NE PHI ARI TB DEN SEA KC 48
  4 14 13 12 9 11 8 7 6 16 5 3 2 1 15 10  
Feery GB NO TEN CIN DET ATL PIT DAL NYJ NE LAC ARI NYG DEN SEA KC 48
  13 4 10 7 6 15 5 8 2 12 3 11 1 9 16 14  
Tuccitto GB NO TEN CIN MIN ATL PIT DAL JAC NE PHI ARI TB DEN SEA KC 49
  16 3 5 2 13 9 4 8 7 11 1 10 14 6 12 15  
Larkin GB MIA TEN CIN MIN ATL BAL LAR JAC NE LAC ARI TB DEN SEA KC 44
  15 4 8 14 9 13 7 1 6 12 3 10 5 2 16 11  
Knotts GB NO TEN CLE MIN ATL PIT DAL JAC NE LAC ARI TB DEN SEA KC 43
  16 3 1 4 2 13 9 10 11 15 5 14 6 7 8 12  
Brimacombe GB MIA HOU CIN MIN ATL PIT DAL JAC NE PHI ARI TB DEN SEA WAS 47
  15 3 4 10 5 14 6 13 9 12 2 11 8 7 16 1  
Wood GB MIA TEN CIN MIN ATL PIT DAL JAC NE PHI SF TB OAK SEA KC 49
  14 6 9 4 1 13 2 8 10 16 11 3 7 5 12 15  
Haseley GB MIA HOU CIN MIN ATL PIT DAL NYJ NE PHI ARI TB DEN SEA KC 47
  16 3 5 8 6 11 1 12 4 15 7 13 9 2 10 14  
Pasquino GB NO HOU CIN MIN ATL PIT DAL JAC NE PHI ARI TB OAK SEA KC 47
  12 3 1 16 5 13 8 9 4 15 6 10 11 2 14 7  
Mamula GB NO TEN CIN MIN ATL PIT DAL JAC NE LAC ARI TB DEN SEA KC 39
  14 6 7 11 3 13 5 8 9 15 1 10 2 4 16 12  
Roberts GB NO TEN CIN DET ATL PIT DAL JAC NE PHI ARI TB DEN SEA KC 45
  16 7 4 8 1 13 6 9 10 14 2 11 5 3 15 12  
Wimer GB NO HOU CIN MIN ATL PIT DAL JAC NE PHI ARI TB DEN SEA KC 52
  14 9 1 8 7 16 6 5 13 15 12 4 3 2 11 10  
Bitonti GB NO TEN CIN MIN ATL PIT DAL JAC NE PHI ARI NYG DEN SEA KC 52
  14 6 2 7 3 15 4 12 5 13 8 9 1 10 11 16  
Holloway GB MIA HOU CLE DET ATL PIT DAL JAC NE LAC ARI TB DEN SEA KC 41
  13 3 5 1 4 15 8 10 9 16 2 12 7 6 14 11  
Grant GB NO HOU CIN MIN ATL BAL DAL JAC NE LAC ARI TB DEN SEA KC 44
  13 11 2 10 1 15 5 8 7 16 3 9 6 4 12 14  
Away CHI NO TEN CIN DET BUF PIT LAR JAC CAR PHI SF NYG OAK IND WAS  
Total Pts 4 84 63 127 20 0 85 1 113 0 60 3 2 7 0 1  
Home GB MIA HOU CLE MIN ATL BAL DAL NYJ NE LAC ARI TB DEN SEA KC  
Total Pts 242 26 35 11 72 229 16 161 10 257 28 155 103 78 243 212  
Tot Conf Pts 246 110 98 138 92 229 101 162 123 257 88 158 105 85 243 213  

HEAVY FAVORITES

Only 1 staffer (Heiser) was brave enough to pick the Bears to upset the Packers this evening. Green Bay checks in as the third most confident pick of the week. The Patriots hold the top spot again, with no one predicting an upset from the Panthers. Vegas expects the Seahawks and their struggling offense to easily beat the Colts this week (13.5 point favorite) and they also rank very high in this week's confidence pool picks. Atlanta, Dallas, Arizona, Tampa and Kansas City were also very highly rated by the staffers this week. 

DUAL SUPPORT

Although Denver was heavily favored by a majority of the staff, the Denver-Oakland game received the lowest total confidence points of the week. Both Denver and Oakland have shown that they can play up or play down to their opponents, and this has folks being conservative, even if they expect the Broncos should win. Philadelphia is more than a 2 to 1 favorite in terms of confidence points over the Chargers, but this game also had less than 90 total points allocated to it. The Vikings, Steelers and Titans are also expected to win, but rank near the bottom of most people's confidence list. 

ODDS AND ENDS

With 213 total confidence points, the Chiefs are easily the biggest Monday Night Football favorite this season. But since Brimacombe is the only staffer to pick Washington to pull off the upset, the Monday night game probably won't have much of an impact on this week's contests. In some office pools, you can make changes to your pick right up to game time. If you find yourself close to the top this week, but not close enough to take the top spot, consider swapping out Kansas City to Washington. They aren't expected to win, but if the upset would give you the top spot, it is better to take a shot and hope for the upset than pick the favorite and ultimately lose. 

Good luck this weekend!

Photos provided by Imagn Images
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