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Staff Confidence Pool (No Spread) Week 3

Will Grant's Staff Confidence Pool (No Spread) Week 3
By Will Grant, September 21, 2017

Staff Confidence Pool (No Spread) Week 3
Photo: Imagn Images

Looking to dominate your office pool this season? 19 Footballguys.com staff members are here to help you out. Each week they will pick the winners of every NFL game, and rank their selections based on how confident they are that the team will win. The most confident pick gets 16 points, and the least confident gets just 1. We'll even total up everyone's picks so you can get an 'overall consensus' on who our staff think will be the most likely winners. Each week we'll announce the weekly winners, and track the overall record for the entire season. A couple of things to note before we get to the picks:

  • Picks for this pool are straight up (no point spread considered). 
  • Picks are due on Wednesday nights, and may not reflect any late-breaking news. If your league allows for last minute changes, please make adjustments to your office pool accordingly. 
  • Our staffers also play in weekly picks Against The Spread, and Survivor Style 'Pick one Winner each week' formats as well. Check out the other weekly articles for more help with those type of games. 

RESULTS FROM LAST WEEK

Risk management was the key to victory this week as the top five team all missed just four games but the five-point differential between first place and 5th place. Grant did the best this week, losing just 7 points on his worst game while Mamula finished second despite missing 11 on the Chargers. Roberts didn't miss any double-digit games, but the 15 points for the Chargers and Cowboys cost him a lot this week. Overall it was a positive week with the early games on Sunday really fueling big scores for everyone. 

Staffer HOU PHI TEN MIN ARI NE CHI CLE BUF NYJ MIA DAL SF WAS GB DET MNF Total
  CIN KC JAC PIT IND NO TB BAL CAR OAK LAC DEN SEA LAR ATL NYG Total Pts
Grant CIN KC TEN PIT ARI NE TB BAL CAR OAK MIA DAL SEA LAR ATL NYG 43 117
  7 13 1 10 8 14 12 11 9 16 5 6 15 4 3 2    
Mamula HOU KC TEN PIT ARI NE TB BAL CAR OAK LAC DEN SEA LAR GB NYG 45 113
  3 7 4 8 12 9 14 10 13 15 11 2 16 6 5 1    
Roberts CIN KC TEN PIT ARI NE TB BAL CAR OAK LAC DAL SEA LAR ATL DET 46 112
  3 13 1 5 11 12 10 14 9 16 8 7 15 6 4 2    
Holloway CIN KC TEN PIT ARI NE TB BAL CAR OAK LAC DEN SEA LAR GB DET 45 112
  7 8 4 6 9 11 12 14 13 15 10 1 16 5 2 3    
Brimacombe CIN PHI TEN PIT ARI NE TB BAL CAR OAK LAC DEN SEA WAS GB DET 51 112
  8 2 1 7 13 11 10 14 12 16 9 3 15 6 5 4    
Garda CIN KC JAC PIT ARI NE TB BAL CAR OAK MIA DEN SEA LAR GB DET 50 111
  6 11 10 9 12 5 13 4 14 15 3 2 16 8 1 7    
Feery CIN KC JAC PIT ARI NE TB BAL CAR OAK LAC DEN SEA LAR GB NYG 41 111
  2 9 4 3 11 14 12 13 10 16 5 8 15 6 7 1    
Haseley CIN KC JAC PIT ARI NE TB BAL CAR OAK LAC DAL SEA LAR ATL NYG 49 111
  2 12 7 10 9 13 8 15 11 16 4 5 14 6 3 1    
Knotts CIN KC TEN PIT ARI NE TB CLE CAR OAK LAC DEN SEA LAR GB DET 47 110
  7 13 8 6 14 12 11 1 9 16 10 4 15 5 3 2    
Bitonti HOU PHI JAC PIT ARI NE TB BAL BUF OAK LAC DAL SEA WAS ATL NYG 45 105
  3 1 6 10 12 13 11 15 2 16 9 8 14 4 7 5    
Tuccitto CIN KC JAC PIT IND NE TB BAL CAR OAK LAC DAL SEA LAR GB DET 49 104
  6 12 7 10 1 9 13 14 11 15 3 5 16 8 2 4    
Wimer CIN KC JAC PIT ARI NE TB BAL CAR OAK LAC DAL SEA LAR GB NYG 40 101
  14 13 1 10 8 7 11 12 9 16 6 4 15 5 3 2    
Larkin CIN KC TEN PIT IND NO TB BAL CAR OAK LAC DEN SEA LAR GB NYG 38 100
  13 7 9 12 1 3 10 14 11 16 8 6 15 4 2 5    
Pasquino HOU PHI TEN MIN ARI NE TB BAL CAR OAK LAC DAL SEA LAR GB NYG 47 100
  5 4 6 2 12 10 14 9 15 16 8 11 13 7 3 1    
Miglio CIN KC JAC PIT IND NE TB BAL CAR OAK LAC DEN SEA LAR GB NYG 46 99
  9 11 5 10 2 15 7 13 12 14 3 1 16 8 6 4    
Hicks CIN KC JAC PIT IND NO TB BAL CAR OAK LAC DEN SEA LAR ATL NYG 44 97
  8 11 7 9 6 1 13 12 14 15 2 3 16 10 4 5    
Wood CIN PHI TEN MIN ARI NE TB BAL CAR OAK LAC DAL SEA LAR GB NYG 43 90
  15 8 5 1 13 9 11 14 12 16 7 4 10 6 3 2    
Heiser CIN KC JAC PIT ARI NE TB BAL CAR OAK LAC DAL SEA LAR GB NYG 41 89
  16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1    
Away HOU PHI TEN MIN ARI NE CHI CLE BUF NYJ MIA DAL SF WAS GB DET    
Total Pts 11 15 39 3 156 175 0 1 2 0 8 55 0 10 44 22    
Home CIN KC JAC PIT IND NO TB BAL CAR OAK LAC DEN SEA LAR ATL NYG    
Total Pts 123 155 61 138 10 4 202 207 192 272 109 30 256 97 21 30    
Tot Conf Pts 134 170 100 141 166 179 202 208 194 272 117 85 256 107 65 52    

Houston's Week 1 performance and quarterback change had people picking the Bengals pretty heavy and that backfired, making the Thursday night game the week's biggest upset again. When Miami's season opener was postponed due to the hurricane, the Dolphins flew to California and spent a week preparing for the Chargers. That led to the second biggest upset with LAC taking down another 100 confidence points in the loss. 

OVERALL RANKINGS

It's still pretty early in the season, so there will be a lot of movement from 1 week to the next. Feery is in 11th place but he is just 15 points out of the top spot and that shows you just how far you can move up or down with a good or a bad week.

Staffer W1 W2 W3 W4 W5 W6 W7 W8 W9 W10 W11 W12 W13 W14 W15 W16 W17 Total
Holloway 93 112                               205
Grant 88 117                               205
Roberts 90 112                               202
Knotts 88 110                               198
Brimacombe 85 112                               197
Garda 85 111                               196
Haseley 85 111                               196
Mamula 81 113                               194
Wood 102 90                               192
Tuccitto 86 104                               190
Feery 79 111                               190
Bitonti 78 105                               183
Larkin 82 100                               182
Wimer 78 101                               179
Miglio 72 99                               171
Hicks 71 97                               168
Pasquino 66 100                               166
Heiser 42 89                               131

THIS WEEK'S PICKS

Here are the picks for this week.

Staffer LAR BAL ATL CLE NYG TB PIT MIA NO DEN HOU SEA CIN KC OAK DAL MNF
  SF JAC DET IND PHI MIN CHI NYJ CAR BUF NE TEN GB LAC WAS ARI Total
Miglio SF BAL ATL IND PHI TB PIT MIA CAR DEN NE TEN GB LAC WAS ARI 48
  7 12 11 10 9 8 14 13 5 6 15 4 16 3 2 1  
Garda LAR BAL ATL CLE PHI TB PIT MIA CAR DEN NE TEN GB KC OAK DAL 50
  4 11 10 1 9 5 16 7 6 15 14 3 12 13 8 2  
Hicks SF JAC DET IND PHI MIN PIT NYJ CAR BUF NE TEN GB LAC WAS ARI 44
  5 1 6 13 8 7 12 2 14 4 16 10 15 11 9 3  
Heiser LAR BAL ATL IND PHI TB PIT MIA NO DEN NE SEA GB KC OAK DAL 38
  11 10 9 8 7 6 16 5 4 13 14 3 15 12 2 1  
Feery LAR BAL DET CLE NYG TB PIT MIA CAR DEN NE TEN GB KC OAK DAL 43
  6 11 4 1 2 3 13 14 10 12 16 7 15 9 8 5  
Tuccitto LAR BAL ATL IND PHI MIN PIT MIA CAR DEN NE SEA GB KC OAK ARI 49
  7 10 6 1 13 5 12 9 14 4 16 2 15 11 8 3  
Larkin LAR BAL DET CLE PHI MIN PIT MIA CAR DEN NE TEN GB KC WAS DAL 41
  8 14 7 6 11 5 12 13 9 10 16 3 15 4 1 2  
Knotts LAR BAL ATL CLE PHI TB PIT MIA NO DEN NE SEA GB LAC OAK DAL 45
  16 7 6 1 11 8 13 12 5 10 14 2 15 4 9 3  
Brimacombe LAR BAL ATL CLE PHI TB PIT MIA NO DEN NE TEN GB LAC WAS ARI 44
  12 9 8 5 13 7 11 14 6 10 16 4 15 2 3 1  
Wood LAR JAC ATL CLE PHI TB PIT MIA NO DEN NE TEN GB KC OAK DAL 43
  13 1 11 2 9 6 14 16 3 12 15 4 10 7 5 8  
Haseley LAR BAL ATL IND PHI MIN PIT MIA CAR DEN NE SEA GB KC WAS ARI 44
  4 11 7 12 9 8 14 5 10 6 16 3 15 13 2 1  
Pasquino LAR JAC ATL CLE PHI MIN PIT MIA CAR DEN NE TEN GB KC OAK DAL 40
  9 6 10 16 7 1 13 5 12 11 15 8 14 4 2 3  
Mamula SF JAC ATL IND PHI TB PIT MIA CAR DEN NE TEN GB KC OAK DAL 44
  5 1 7 8 10 9 14 12 11 6 16 2 15 3 13 4  
Roberts LAR BAL DET IND PHI TB PIT MIA CAR DEN NE TEN GB LAC OAK DAL 44
  11 9 2 4 12 5 14 13 8 10 16 3 15 1 7 6  
Wimer LAR BAL ATL CLE PHI MIN PIT MIA CAR DEN NE TEN GB LAC WAS DAL 33
  7 12 8 6 11 9 14 15 10 13 5 4 16 3 2 1  
Bitonti LAR BAL ATL IND PHI TB PIT MIA CAR DEN NE TEN GB KC OAK DAL 52
  8 3 5 1 12 6 14 9 13 11 16 4 15 10 7 2  
Holloway LAR BAL DET CLE PHI TB PIT MIA CAR DEN NE SEA GB LAC OAK DAL 44
  7 8 3 4 11 5 14 13 10 12 16 1 15 2 9 6  
Grant LAR BAL ATL CLE PHI TB PIT MIA CAR DEN NE TEN GB KC OAK DAL 47
  5 8 11 1 13 4 14 3 9 7 15 6 16 12 10 2  
Away LAR BAL ATL CLE NYG TB PIT MIA NO DEN HOU SEA CIN KC OAK DAL  
Total Pts 128 135 109 43 2 72 244 178 18 168 0 11 0 98 88 45  
Home SF JAC DET IND PHI MIN CHI NYJ CAR BUF NE TEN GB LAC WAS ARI  
Total Pts 17 9 22 57 175 35 0 2 141 4 267 62 264 26 19 9  
Tot Conf Pts 145 144 131 100 177 107 244 180 159 172 267 73 264 124 107 54  

HEAVY FAVORITES

Will the Rams be the 3rd team in a row to disappoint on Thursday night? maybe, but that didn't stop the overall board from backing them pretty heavily against the 49ers tonight. The Ravens, Eagles, Steelers, Dolphins, Broncos, Patriots, and Packers were also all heavy favorites this week. The Packers, Steelers, and Patriots all had over 240 confidence points on their games as well, making them strong favorites and teams you want near the top of your weightings this week. 

DUAL SUPPORT

The Monday night game continues to be a low-confidence match, with the Cowboys and Cardinals drawing just 54 overall confidence points (an average of just 3 per staffer). The Browns drew a lot of support this week against the Colts who are a slight favorite for being at home but are clearly not the same team without Andrew Luck under center. The Titans are also a home favorite against the Seahawks who are struggling on offense this year. Finally, the Vikings are getting a little love against Tampa Bay this week, despite their question marks at quarterback. Clearly, some staffers are expecting Sam Bradford to play because if he doesn't, this team is going to have a hard time against the Bucs. Bradford did practice on Wednesday - keep an eye on this as the week progresses

ODDS AND ENDS

Speaking of Vikings - it's important to mention that the picks for this article are due on Wednesday night and do not change as the week progresses. If key injuries like the one to Sam Bradford happen later in the week, this article will not be adjusted to compensate. If your office pool allows you to change picks up until game time, please make the appropriate changes as the late-breaking news comes out. 

Good luck this weekend!

Photos provided by Imagn Images
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