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Staff Confidence Pool (No Spread) Week 17

Will Grant's Staff Confidence Pool (No Spread) Week 17
By Will Grant, December 28, 2017

Staff Confidence Pool (No Spread) Week 17
Photo: Imagn Images

Looking to dominate your office pool this season? 19 Footballguys.com staff members are here to help you out. Each week they will pick the winners of every NFL game, and rank their selections based on how confident they are that the team will win. The most confident pick gets 16 points, and the least confident gets just 1. We'll even total up everyone's picks so you can get an 'overall consensus' on who our staff think will be the most likely winners. Each week we'll announce the weekly winners, and track the overall record for the entire season. A couple of things to note before we get to the picks:

  • Picks for this pool are straight up (no point spread considered). 
  • Picks are due on Wednesday nights, and may not reflect any late-breaking news. If your league allows for last minute changes, please make adjustments to your office pool accordingly. 
  • Our staffers also play in weekly picks Against The Spread, and Survivor Style 'Pick one Winner each week' formats as well. Check out the other weekly articles for more help with those type of games. 

RESULTS FROM LAST WEEK

For the 4th time this season, Will Grant turned in the best confidence pool picks. While there five people who had the exact same picks as Grant, he managed his risk the best, only losing 13 points on his three incorrect picks. Garda missed the same three picks, but lost 1 more confidence point and narrowly missed the top spot for the first time this year. Haseley, Knotts and Brimacombe also missed those same three picks. 

Staffer IND MIN DET LAR DEN ATL CLE BUF MIA LAC TB JAC NYG SEA PIT OAK MNF TOT
  BAL GB CIN TEN WAS NO CHI NE KC NYJ CAR SF ARI DAL HOU PHI TOT Pts
Grant BAL MIN DET LAR WAS NO CHI NE KC LAC CAR JAC ARI DAL PIT PHI 48 123
  14 6 7 10 2 3 9 11 16 8 15 5 4 1 13 12    
Garda BAL MIN DET LAR WAS NO CHI NE KC LAC CAR JAC ARI DAL PIT PHI 45 122
  15 14 3 13 11 10 9 12 2 7 16 6 4 5 1 8    
Wood BAL MIN DET LAR WAS NO CHI NE KC LAC CAR JAC NYG SEA PIT PHI 51 122
  7 13 3 15 2 10 1 14 9 4 8 6 5 12 11 16    
Larkin BAL MIN DET LAR WAS ATL CHI NE KC LAC CAR SF NYG SEA PIT PHI 52 119
  11 13 9 10 8 6 5 14 4 3 15 7 2 1 12 16    
Haseley BAL MIN DET LAR WAS NO CHI NE KC LAC CAR JAC ARI DAL PIT PHI 47 119
  15 14 12 5 7 6 10 9 8 3 16 4 2 1 11 13    
Miglio BAL MIN DET LAR WAS NO CHI NE KC NYJ CAR SF ARI DAL PIT PHI 49 118
  16 9 12 11 6 8 7 14 10 2 15 1 3 4 13 5    
Knotts BAL MIN DET LAR WAS NO CHI NE KC LAC CAR JAC ARI DAL PIT PHI 44 118
  16 11 10 9 15 14 13 12 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1    
Roberts BAL MIN DET TEN WAS NO CLE NE KC LAC CAR SF NYG SEA PIT PHI 42 118
  16 7 8 2 6 9 3 13 11 10 15 1 5 4 14 12    
Brimacombe BAL MIN DET LAR WAS NO CHI NE KC LAC CAR JAC ARI DAL PIT PHI 47 118
  16 6 9 12 5 1 4 14 8 11 13 7 3 2 15 10    
Heiser BAL MIN DET LAR WAS NO CHI NE KC LAC CAR SF NYG DAL PIT PHI 54 117
  16 15 13 14 12 8 7 11 4 2 6 9 5 1 10 3    
Pasquino BAL MIN DET LAR WAS NO CHI NE KC LAC CAR JAC NYG DAL PIT PHI 48 117
  13 12 8 7 1 4 5 16 14 9 15 3 2 6 10 11    
Feery BAL MIN DET LAR WAS NO CLE BUF KC LAC CAR JAC NYG DAL PIT PHI 49 115
  13 11 6 9 7 10 2 3 12 8 16 5 4 1 15 14    
Bitonti BAL MIN DET LAR WAS NO CHI NE KC LAC CAR JAC ARI DAL PIT PHI 52 115
  10 4 14 9 8 7 6 13 12 1 11 5 3 2 16 15    
Hicks BAL MIN DET LAR WAS NO CHI NE KC LAC CAR JAC ARI DAL PIT PHI 61 114
  16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1    
Mamula BAL MIN DET LAR WAS NO CHI NE KC LAC CAR JAC ARI DAL PIT PHI 47 112
  14 15 12 5 1 6 8 16 4 7 11 9 2 3 10 13    
Holloway BAL MIN DET LAR DEN ATL CHI NE KC LAC CAR JAC NYG DAL PIT PHI 49 111
  13 7 9 10 1 2 8 12 11 5 14 6 3 4 15 16    
Wimer BAL MIN DET LAR WAS ATL CHI NE KC LAC CAR JAC ARI DAL PIT PHI 52 105
  11 10 9 8 7 15 6 13 12 5 14 4 3 2 15 1    
Tuccitto BAL GB CIN TEN DEN ATL CHI NE KC NYJ CAR JAC NYG SEA PIT PHI 49 90
  9 2 4 8 6 7 13 10 12 5 14 15 3 1 16 11    
Away IND MIN DET LAR DEN ATL CLE BUF MIA LAC TB JAC NYG SEA PIT OAK    
Total Pts 0 182 158 160 7 30 5 3 0 97 0 85 29 18 201 0    
Home BAL GB CIN TEN WAS NO CHI NE KC NYJ CAR SF ARI DAL HOU PHI    
Total Pts 241 2 4 10 110 107 121 213 165 7 226 18 32 38 0 178    
Tot Conf Pts 241 184 162 170 117 137 126 216 165 104 226 103 61 56 201 178    

As mentioned above, Detroit, Jacksonville and Dallas took down five of the top finishers this week, but Detroit was the biggest hit, costing the 158 total points. Dallas was the lowest confidence game of the week, so the upset there didn't have much of an impact and the Jacksonville loss only took down 85 points. 

OVERALL RANKINGS

Grant shaved another five points off of Brimacombe's lead, but Brimacombe still holds a comfortable 29 point lead going into the final week of the season. It's not an impossible lead to overcome, but even if Grant turns in a perfect 136, Brimacombe only needs 108 points to lock him out. See below for the key games this week. 

Staffer Wk01 Wk02 Wk03 Wk04 Wk05 Wk06 Wk07 Wk08 Wk09 Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17 Total
Brimacombe 85 112 77 79 81 56 108 84 55 99 70 115 97 105 114 118   1455
Grant 88 117 80 81 70 42 94 87 56 97 70 122 104 72 123 123   1426
Haseley 85 111 86 89 55 48 92 86 50 91 75 104 108 86 127 119   1412
Mamula 81 113 66 80 64 53 96 81 59 83 79 120 115 79 121 112   1402
Miglio 72 99 67 84 62 43 100 82 66 98 69 113 120 86 123 118   1402
Roberts 90 112 67 86 69 47 110 81 54 88 68 117 105 63 115 118   1390
Knotts 88 110 70 75 67 50 100 83 48 94 87 118 106 65 106 118   1385
Bitonti 78 105 73 85 56 41 94 87 56 86 70 113 103 69 135 115   1366
Tuccitto 86 104 74 83 66 44 96 78 43 95 76 99 116 86 117 90   1353
Holloway 93 112 55 80 64 45 103 81 49 70 67 117 119 70 115 111   1351
Feery 79 111 58 87 57 51 80 84 63 85 76 112 105 59 120 115   1342
Wimer 78 101 63 80 80 45 66 76 48 87 86 117 113 82 114 105   1341
Garda 85 111 67 73 65 32 79 75 54 90 71 116 113 63 125 122   1341
Larkin 82 100 65 74 49 50 94 85 54 74 75 107 117 71 110 119   1326
Wood 102 90 81 65 49 27 96 84 52 88 59 104 98 76 132 122   1325
Hicks 71 97 85 87 28 48 94 77 57 72 57 121 108 89 110 114   1315
Pasquino 66 100 77 88 59 36 85 79 51 99 72 103 109 58 110 117   1309
Heiser 42 89 81 79 54 42 93 75 52 78 69 97 110 83 133 117   1294

THIS WEEK'S PICKS

Here are the picks for this week.

Staffer CLE GB CHI DAL HOU NYJ WAS CIN CAR NO KC JAC ARI BUF OAK SF MNF
  PIT DET MIN PHI IND NE NYG BAL ATL TB DEN TEN SEA MIA LAC LAR TOT
Miglio PIT DET MIN PHI IND NE WAS BAL ATL NO KC TEN SEA MIA LAC LAR 55
  15 8 14 12 4 16 5 13 11 9 3 2 7 6 1 10  
Garda PIT DET MIN PHI IND NE WAS BAL ATL NO KC JAC SEA BUF LAC LAR 45
  15 8 12 11 10 9 7 6 5 14 4 3 2 1 16 13  
Hicks PIT DET MIN DAL IND NE WAS BAL CAR NO KC JAC SEA MIA LAC SF 47
  2 3 6 7 9 11 12 1 4 5 13 8 14 10 15 16  
Heiser PIT DET MIN DAL IND NE WAS BAL CAR NO KC JAC SEA BUF LAC SF 44
  16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 5 4 3 2 1 6  
Feery PIT GB MIN PHI IND NE WAS BAL ATL NO KC JAC SEA BUF LAC LAR 45
  14 1 16 5 3 15 4 13 9 11 7 8 12 6 10 2  
Tuccitto PIT GB MIN PHI IND NE NYG BAL CAR TB DEN TEN SEA BUF LAC LAR 49
  9 7 12 15 1 10 3 14 4 8 6 5 13 2 16 11  
Larkin PIT DET MIN PHI HOU NE NYG BAL ATL TB KC JAC SEA MIA LAC LAR 55
  15 12 9 8 6 16 4 14 11 10 3 7 2 5 1 13  
Knotts PIT DET MIN PHI IND NE WAS BAL ATL NO KC TEN SEA MIA LAC LAR 44
  1 2 3 16 15 4 13 5 12 6 11 10 9 14 7 8  
Brimacombe PIT DET MIN PHI IND NE WAS BAL ATL NO DEN TEN SEA BUF LAC SF 47
  15 10 11 1 5 16 4 14 6 9 3 8 13 7 12 2  
Wood PIT DET MIN DAL IND NE WAS BAL CAR NO DEN JAC SEA BUF LAC SF 51
  16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1  
Haseley PIT DET MIN DAL IND NE WAS BAL ATL NO DEN TEN SEA BUF LAC SF 48
  14 12 15 3 5 16 11 10 9 13 1 2 8 4 6 7  
Pasquino PIT GB MIN PHI IND NE WAS BAL ATL NO KC JAC SEA BUF LAC SF 45
  16 7 14 3 1 15 6 11 2 8 5 4 9 10 12 13  
Mamula PIT DET MIN PHI IND NE NYG BAL ATL NO KC TEN SEA BUF LAC SF 44
  15 8 14 10 11 16 3 12 6 13 7 1 5 2 9 4  
Roberts PIT DET MIN PHI IND NE WAS BAL ATL NO KC TEN SEA MIA LAC LAR 44
  16 15 13 8 4 14 5 12 3 11 7 2 10 1 9 6  
Wimer PIT GB MIN DAL HOU NE NYG BAL ATL NO KC TEN SEA BUF LAC LAR 69
  15 7 14 6 5 16 4 13 12 11 3 2 1 10 9 8  
Bitonti PIT DET MIN DAL IND NE WAS BAL CAR NO KC JAC SEA BUF LAC SF 65
  14 9 11 4 7 15 12 13 6 2 10 3 16 5 8 1  
Holloway PIT DET MIN PHI IND NE NYG BAL CAR NO KC JAC SEA BUF LAC LAR 50
  16 8 15 4 5 14 1 12 6 11 9 3 13 2 10 7  
Grant PIT GB MIN DAL IND NE WAS BAL CAR NO KC JAC SEA BUF LAC SF 46
  8 13 11 3 2 12 4 7 1 9 14 16 6 5 10 15  
Away CLE GB CHI DAL HOU NYJ WAS CIN CAR NO KC JAC ARI BUF OAK SF  
Total Pts 0 35 0 49 11 0 103 0 37 146 101 61 0 59 0 65  
Home PIT DET MIN PHI IND NE NYG BAL ATL TB DEN TEN SEA MIA LAC LAR  
Total Pts 232 125 218 93 106 237 15 188 86 18 16 32 147 36 154 78  
Tot Conf Pts 232 160 218 142 117 237 118 188 123 164 117 93 147 95 154 143  

HEAVY FAVORITES

It's the final week of the season, and Vegas has blessed us with several big spread games. This resulted in a larger number of favorites this week. Pittsburgh, Minnesota, New England, Baltimore, Seattle and the Chargers were all unanimous choices by the staff this week. Washington, Indianapolis and Kansas City are also strong choices this week and should be near that top of your board. 

DUAL SUPPORT

Jacksonville at Tennessee and Buffalo at Miami are the two games with the lowest total confidence points this week. Both visitors are a slight favorite, but these games are pretty even from a confidence point of view. San Francisco at the Rams is an interesting contest with 143 total confidence points, but the Rams are only a slight favorite to win against the very hot 49ers. 

ODDS AND ENDS

So here is how the top two teams compare. The games highlighted below will determine this year's overall winner: 

Staffer CLE GB CHI DAL HOU NYJ WAS CIN CAR NO KC JAC ARI BUF OAK SF MNF
  PIT DET MIN PHI IND NE NYG BAL ATL TB DEN TEN SEA MIA LAC LAR TOT
Brimacombe PIT DET MIN PHI IND NE WAS BAL ATL NO DEN TEN SEA BUF LAC SF 47
  15 10 11 1 5 16 4 14 6 9 3 8 13 7 12 2  
Grant PIT GB MIN DAL IND NE WAS BAL CAR NO KC JAC SEA BUF LAC SF 46
  8 13 11 3 2 12 4 7 1 9 14 16 6 5 10 15  

[James Brimacombe] It feels like all season it has been a battle to try to gain distance on Will each week, but with little luck. I started the first half of the year locking in the top 5 or so highest Vegas point spread teams with the highest number of confidence points and with the rest I would mix it up with some underdogs. The past few weeks I have been playing it safe and only looking to chase underdogs with my last 1-5 confidence points because I felt like I had a sizable enough lead. I think Will knows that going into the week and he is going to look to be contrarian in his picks. It has been a fun battle against the staff all season long so expect Nothing different in Week 17.

[Will Grant] I've gained 14 points on James over the last two weeks, but I'm still almost 30 points behind. Time to swing for the fence. I started by opening up Jeff Pasquino's For the Win article to look for some help with picking an upset or two. Jeff's point about Detroit is a solid one - Green Bay playing for pride after missing the playoffs in forever and Detroit is still hurting from being eliminated by the Bengals. If the Packers can pull off an upset, I figured it would be a good place to make up some points. I didn't realize that James would go so heavy on the Lions, but this gave becomes a key point for me since it's a 23 point swing in my favor if the Packers win. 

The Cowboy fan in my disagrees with Jeff in that I think they'll play Philly tough and given the fact that the Eagles lost Wentz earlier, I think they rest their starters by the second half. I only put a couple points on the Cowboys though so this game isn't a big swing either way. 

I agree with Jeff that the Chiefs have 'more to play for' here and want to go into the playoffs on a winning trend. If they do trot out Patrick Mahomes II II to start this week, he'll be looking to post his first win against a division rival. Jeff also thinks the Chiefs can pull out the win, so I went heavy on them as well. As luck with have it, James put 3 on the Broncos, so another 17 point swing for me if the Chiefs win. 

For the Jaguars, I'm completely in agreement with Jeff's analysis - the Jaguars were embarrassed by the 49ers last week and don't want to go into the playoffs on a two game losing streak. I think they do whatever it takes to win against the Titans and that's why I have them as my top pick. James taking Tennessee for 8 gives me another 24 point swing if the Jaguars win. 

And lastly - those pesky 49ers - On a 4 game win streak and looking to play spoilers to the division rival. If Jeff's theory that the Rams won't mind losing to face the Eagles instead of the Vikings is correct, this could be another game where the 49ers could fight to the final gun to pull out a win. I moved them just behind the Jaguars and even though James picked them as well, I'm going to pick up more points because of it. 

Finally, by moving SF, KC and Jacksonville to the top of my confidence pool, I move the consensus favorites like New England, Baltimore, Seattle and the Chargers down a couple pegs. In the event of an upset in any of those games, I'll save a few points instead of losing my top seeds. It's worth a shot anyway. 

Good luck this weekend!

Photos provided by Imagn Images
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