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Staff Confidence Pool (No Spread) Week 15

Will Grant's Staff Confidence Pool (No Spread) Week 15
By Will Grant, December 15, 2016

Staff Confidence Pool (No Spread) Week 15
Photo: Imagn Images

Looking to dominate your office pool this season? 18 Footballguys.com staff members are here to help you out. Each week they will pick the winners of every NFL game, and rank their selections based on how confident they are that the team will win. The most confident pick gets 16 points, and the least confident gets just 1. We'll even total up everyone's picks so you can get an 'overall consensus' on who our staff think will be the most likely winners. Each week we'll announce the weekly winners, and track the overall record for the entire season. A couple of things to note before we get to the picks:

  • Picks for this pool are straight up (no point spread considered). 
  • Picks are due on Wednesday nights, and may not reflect late-breaking news. If your league allows for last minute changes, please make adjustments to your office pool accordingly. 
  • Our staffers also play in weekly picks Against The Spread, and Survivor Style 'Pick one Winner each week' formats as well. Check out the other weekly articles for more help with those type of games. 

RESULTS FROM LAST WEEK

Matt Bitonti crushed it last week. He missed only 1 game (the game that everyone picked) and finished with 123 total points, the second highest total points of anyone this season.  Alex Miglio finished a distant second with just 108 confidence points, and he missed four games this week. Nice job Matt. 

Staffer OAK CHI ARI SD CIN DEN HOU WAS PIT MIN NYJ ATL SEA NO DAL BAL MNF TOT
  KC DET MIA CAR CLE TEN IND PHI BUF JAX SF LAR GB TB NYG NE TOT Pts
Bitonti KC DET MIA CAR CIN TEN IND WAS PIT MIN NYJ ATL GB TB NYG NE 52 123
  8 15 9 5 12 4 13 6 10 11 3 16 2 14 1 7    
Miglio KC DET MIA CAR CIN TEN IND PHI PIT MIN SF ATL GB TB DAL NE 47 108
  10 15 7 8 13 2 16 3 12 14 4 11 1 6 5 9    
Feery OAK DET ARI SD CIN TEN IND WAS PIT MIN NYJ ATL GB NO NYG NE 45 104
  9 15 6 1 11 4 14 8 7 12 5 13 10 2 3 16    
Larkin KC DET MIA CAR CIN DEN IND WAS PIT MIN SF ATL SEA NO DAL NE 45 102
  10 16 5 3 15 6 14 8 9 11 4 13 2 1 7 12    
Hicks KC DET MIA CAR CIN TEN IND PHI BUF MIN SF LAR GB TB NYG NE 45 101
  9 16 5 7 11 1 14 3 6 12 10 2 8 13 4 15    
Knotts OAK DET MIA CAR CIN DEN IND WAS PIT MIN SF ATL GB NO DAL NE 47 100
  1 16 4 9 10 8 15 6 14 13 7 12 5 3 2 11    
Garda KC DET ARI SD CIN DEN IND WAS PIT MIN SF ATL GB TB DAL NE 70 98
  14 13 2 1 15 12 11 7 6 5 4 16 3 9 8 10    
Kuczynski OAK DET ARI CAR CIN DEN IND WAS PIT MIN NYJ ATL SEA NO DAL NE 50 97
  1 15 4 5 12 11 8 9 10 16 3 14 6 2 7 13    
Brimacombe OAK DET ARI CAR CIN DEN IND PHI PIT MIN NYJ ATL GB NO NYG NE 47 97
  2 16 3 9 15 10 14 4 5 11 1 12 7 6 8 13    
Heiser KC DET ARI SD CIN TEN IND WAS PIT MIN NYJ ATL SEA TB DAL NE 42 96
  13 12 11 14 10 15 9 16 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1    
Tuccitto KC DET MIA CAR CIN DEN IND PHI BUF MIN SF ATL SEA TB DAL NE 49 96
  11 10 1 9 15 3 13 7 2 12 6 14 5 8 4 16    
Gray KC DET MIA SD CIN DEN IND WAS BUF MIN SF ATL SEA TB DAL NE 51 95
  5 16 4 6 12 3 13 8 1 14 2 10 7 11 9 15    
Grant OAK DET ARI CAR CIN DEN IND WAS PIT MIN SF ATL SEA TB DAL NE 45 93
  1 15 2 5 6 9 13 8 10 12 4 14 3 7 11 16    
Mamula OAK DET ARI CAR CIN DEN IND WAS PIT MIN SF ATL SEA NO DAL NE 45 91
  7 16 8 6 14 9 5 4 12 13 3 11 2 1 10 15    
Wood OAK DET MIA SD CIN TEN IND PHI PIT MIN NYJ ATL SEA TB NYG NE 46 84
  16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1    
Pasquino KC DET ARI SD CIN TEN IND PHI PIT MIN SF ATL GB TB DAL NE 50 81
  1 16 13 7 10 4 12 2 3 8 15 14 5 9 6 11    
Wimer KC DET ARI SD CIN DEN IND WAS PIT MIN SF ATL GB NO DAL NE 42 75
  9 10 8 7 11 12 13 6 5 14 4 16 3 2 15 1    
Roberts OAK DET ARI SD CIN TEN IND WAS BUF JAX SF ATL SEA TB DAL NE 46 75
  8 14 3 6 15 5 13 4 2 1 7 12 10 9 11 16    
Away OAK CHI ARI SD CIN DEN HOU WAS PIT MIN NYJ ATL SEA NO DAL BAL    
Total Pts 45 0 60 55 219 83 0 90 119 192 24 208 43 17 97 0    
Home KC DET MIA CAR CLE TEN IND PHI BUF JAX SF LAR GB TB NYG NE    
Total Pts 90 261 49 66 0 46 220 28 11 1 70 2 44 92 18 198    

The Indianapolis loss hurt everyone on the board. The entire staff picked them to win, and they had the highest total confidence points bet on them (220) for the week. After the 41-10 blowout of the Jets on Monday Night, the entire staff expected the Colts to easily beat the Texans at home last week. But the Texans jumped out to a 13-3 half-time lead and never looked back. The other upset losses were all under 100 total confidence points and didn't come close to the Indy loss. 

OVERALL RANKINGS

Bitonti's big win vaulted him into second place, but he's still almost 30 points behind Larkin for the overall lead. Larkin finished this week with a respectable 102 points, and with just three weeks to go, he's going to have to make a major mistake to lose the overall title. 

Staffer Wk01 Wk02 Wk03 Wk04 Wk05 Wk06 Wk07 Wk08 Wk09 Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17 Total
Larkin 120 104 67 64 70 79 98 63 61 46 84 116 104 102       1178
Bitonti 90 64 78 67 85 79 71 69 71 59 81 118 94 123       1149
Miglio 88 94 69 65 67 74 85 60 71 60 92 106 94 108       1133
Hicks 64 105 69 83 62 87 78 50 63 78 87 108 97 101       1132
Garda 87 98 76 71 60 60 70 58 75 84 84 109 95 98       1125
Knotts 88 82 83 66 73 77 78 65 72 47 87 117 89 100       1124
Kuczynski 98 79 68 73 61 69 68 58 77 59 80 117 105 97       1109
Tuccitto 87 92 80 66 63 75 79 68 63 53 89 107 87 96       1105
Gray 85 88 58 71 53 87 76 62 69 53 88 108 93 95       1086
Brimacombe 74 87 82 85 63 89 87 46 66 39 73 106 89 97       1083
Grant 75 84 65 74 66 65 64 59 79 61 82 114 97 93       1078
Mamula 79 99 46 67 78 78 70 62 63 47 91 112 94 91       1077
Wimer 83 90 89 80 63 79 70 64 58 59 78 91 91 75       1070
Feery 72 83 66 59 63 74 69 71 66 45 65 130 84 104       1051
Pasquino 84 90 59 57 59 73 74 52 64 61 75 119 97 81       1045
Roberts 88 89 70 70 60 65 67 43 61 66 79 119 92 75       1044
Heiser 82 55 69 68 72 86 92 58 76 38 61 104 86 96       1043
Wood 86 87 45 56 66 65 92 49 68 42 73 112 54 84       979

THIS WEEK'S PICKS

Here are the picks for this week

Staffer LAR MIA IND PIT JAX TEN CLE PHI DET GB NO SF OAK NE TB CAR MNF TOT
  SEA NYJ MIN CIN HOU KC BUF BAL NYG CHI ARI ATL SD DEN DAL WAS TOTAL Pts
Miglio SEA NYJ MIN PIT HOU KC BUF BAL NYG GB ARI ATL OAK NE DAL WAS 48 136
  14 1 13 10 12 11 9 6 4 15 3 16 2 8 7 5    
Garda SEA NYJ MIN PIT HOU KC BUF BAL NYG GB ARI ATL OAK NE DAL WAS 40 136
  14 5 11 9 13 10 12 7 8 16 6 15 2 1 3 4    
Hicks SEA MIA MIN CIN HOU KC BUF BAL NYG GB ARI ATL OAK DEN DAL WAS 61 136
  15 4 5 3 2 9 7 6 1 10 11 16 8 12 14 13    
Heiser SEA MIA IND PIT JAX KC BUF BAL NYG GB ARI ATL OAK NE TB WAS 36 136
  16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1    
Feery SEA MIA MIN PIT HOU KC BUF BAL NYG GB NO ATL OAK NE DAL WAS 48 136
  16 5 7 4 6 9 10 12 2 11 1 15 8 13 14 3    
Kuczynski SEA MIA MIN PIT HOU KC BUF BAL NYG GB ARI ATL OAK NE DAL WAS 44 136
  8 3 4 10 13 15 11 6 1 14 2 16 12 9 7 5    
Gray SEA MIA MIN PIT HOU KC BUF BAL NYG GB ARI ATL OAK NE DAL WAS 58 136
  14 2 1 6 13 12 15 9 4 11 3 16 7 8 5 10    
Tuccitto SEA NYJ MIN CIN HOU KC BUF PHI DET GB NO ATL SD DEN DAL CAR 49 136
  10 2 15 4 14 13 11 6 5 16 7 9 3 1 12 8    
Larkin SEA MIA MIN CIN HOU KC BUF BAL DET GB ARI ATL SD DEN DAL WAS 45 136
  16 5 9 2 10 12 14 13 4 11 6 15 1 3 8 7    
Knotts SEA MIA MIN PIT HOU KC BUF BAL NYG GB ARI ATL OAK NE DAL WAS 46 136
  16 8 1 2 13 12 14 9 7 11 6 15 3 4 10 5    
Brimacombe SEA MIA IND PIT HOU KC BUF BAL DET GB ARI ATL SD DEN TB CAR 48 136
  16 1 2 3 13 15 4 5 6 14 12 11 7 8 10 9    
Wood SEA  MIA   MIN  PIT HOU  KC   CLE PHI  NYG  GB  NO  ATL  OAK  NE  DAL  WAS  41  136
  16  15  14  13  12  11  10   9 8   7  6  5 4   3  2 1    
Pasquino SEA MIA MIN PIT HOU KC BUF BAL DET GB ARI ATL SD NE DAL WAS 51 136
  15 4 8 9 7 2 14 13 1 12 5 16 3 6 11 10    
Mamula SEA MIA IND PIT HOU KC BUF BAL NYG GB ARI ATL OAK NE DAL WAS 43 136
  14 12 3 11 8 15 9 2 1 5 10 16 7 13 4 6    
Roberts SEA NYJ MIN PIT HOU TEN BUF BAL NYG GB NO ATL SD NE TB WAS 52 136
  16 5 13 10 12 3 14 11 8 7 4 15 2 6 1 9    
Wimer SEA MIA MIN PIT HOU KC BUF BAL DET GB NO ATL OAK DEN DAL CAR 45 136
  15 8 7 6 12 11 14 10 9 13 5 16 4 3 2 1    
Bitonti SEA NYJ  MIN   PIT HOU  KC  BUF   BAL  NYG GB  ARI  ATL   OAK NE  DAL  WAS  51  136
   15 4  6   7 12  11  13  10   5 14  3  16   9 8  2   1    
Grant SEA NYJ MIN PIT HOU KC BUF BAL NYG GB ARI ATL OAK NE DAL WAS 51 136
  16 1 7 13 10 12 14 8 9 11 3 15 4 5 2 6    
Away LAR MIA IND PIT JAX TEN CLE PHI DET GB NO SF OAK NE TB CAR    
Total Pts 0 82 19 126 12 3 10 15 25 205 23 0 74 87 13 18    
Home SEA NYJ MIN CIN HOU KC BUF BAL NYG CHI ARI ATL SD DEN DAL WAS    
Total Pts 262 18 121 9 182 191 195 136 66 0 76 248 16 27 103 86    

HEAVY FAVORITES

Seattle is a heavy favorite in Vegas to win tonight's game, so it's no surprise that the staffers placed a ton of confidence points on them to win this evening. Atlanta is red hot as of late, and with the lowly San Francisco 49ers traveling West to East to face them, It's no surprise that they are also heavily favored to win by the board. Other strong favorites include Pittsburgh, Houston, Kansas City, Buffalo, Baltimore and Green Bay. 

DUAL SUPPORT

Detroit and the Giants are both fighting for a playoff spot, and are scrappy teams that are winning any way they can as of late. The Giants are a slight favorite at home, but overall this game is close compared to many others on the board. The Patriots are favored to win despite being on the road, in Denver, on a short week after playing on Monday Night. But the Broncos have their supporters as well and this game may be closer than people expect. Oakland is a decent favorite over San Diego this week, but the overall game has very low confidence. This should be near the bottom of your office pool this week. 

ODDS AND ENDS

With just three weeks left, if you are not the overall leader, but are within striking distance, you've got to make a move now. Pick one or two games this week and go against the field, hoping for an upset. You don't need to risk a ton of confidence points on it to make up a lot of ground if you can pick the upset right. In a simple example from last week - Larkin picked the Saints over Tampa, but only put 1 confidence point on them. The Saints lost, and he lost just 1 point. But if the Saints had won, he'd have scored 103 this week, and Bitonti would have only had 109 because of losing 14 points on Tampa Bay. Larkin wouldn't have won this week, but his lead over Bitonti would have been 15 points larger. 

Good luck this weekend!

Photos provided by Imagn Images
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