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Staff Confidence Pool (No Spread) Week 11

Will Grant's Staff Confidence Pool (No Spread) Week 11
By Will Grant, November 17, 2016

Staff Confidence Pool (No Spread) Week 11
Photo: Imagn Images

Looking to dominate your office pool this season? 18 Footballguys.com staff members are here to help you out. Each week they will pick the winners of every NFL game, and rank their selections based on how confident they are that the team will win. The most confident pick gets 16 points, and the least confident gets just 1. We'll even total up everyone's picks so you can get an 'overall consensus' on who our staff think will be the most likely winners. Each week we'll announce the weekly winners, and track the overall record for the entire season. A couple of things to note before we get to the picks:

  • Picks for this pool are straight up (no point spread considered). 
  • Picks are due on Wednesday nights, and may not reflect late-breaking news. If your league allows for last minute changes, please make adjustments to your office pool accordingly. 
  • Our staffers also play in weekly picks Against The Spread, and Survivor Style 'Pick one Winner each week' formats as well. Check out the other weekly articles for more help with those type of games. 

RESULTS FROM LAST WEEK

Andrew Garda pulled off this week's victory, despite missing 6 of the 14 games this weekend. Garda managed to keep his losses very small, and finished with an impressive 84 points total. By contract, Andy Hicks missed just four contests this week, but he finished six points behind Garda because Andy lost 10 points on New England while Garda lost just one. Nice Job. This was a tough week. 

Staffer CLE MIN DEN HOU LAR CHI GB KC ATL MIA SF DAL SEA CIN MNF TOT
  BAL WAS NO JAX NYJ TB TEN CAR PHI SD ARI PIT NE NYG TOT Pts
Garda BAL WAS DEN HOU NYJ TB GB CAR ATL SD ARI DAL NE NYG 40 84
  13 12 11 10 2 7 6 4 3 5 14 8 1 9    
Hicks BAL WAS NO HOU NYJ TB TEN KC PHI SD ARI DAL NE NYG 53 78
  14 11 4 5 6 3 2 8 1 7 13 9 10 12    
Roberts BAL WAS NO HOU NYJ CHI TEN CAR ATL MIA ARI DAL SEA NYG 51 66
  13 12 8 7 9 6 3 5 11 2 14 4 1 10    
Grant BAL WAS DEN HOU NYJ CHI GB KC ATL SD ARI DAL NE NYG 46 61
  13 8 5 11 9 2 7 3 4 10 14 1 12 6    
Pasquino BAL MIN DEN JAX NYJ CHI TEN KC PHI SD ARI DAL NE CIN 47 61
  13 8 10 7 4 5 9 11 1 2 14 3 12 6    
Miglio BAL WAS NO HOU NYJ TB GB CAR PHI SD ARI PIT NE NYG 48 60
  13 10 5 8 7 9 11 3 2 6 14 1 12 4    
Kuczynski BAL WAS DEN HOU LAR TB GB CAR ATL SD ARI DAL NE NYG 41 59
  12 4 2 8 1 7 13 3 11 9 14 5 10 6    
Wimer BAL WAS NO HOU NYJ TB GB CAR ATL MIA ARI DAL NE NYG 49 59
  13 10 9 8 7 6 11 5 12 4 14 3 2 1    
Bitonti BAL WAS NO HOU LAR TB GB CAR ATL SD ARI DAL NE NYG 52 59
  14 4 10 7 1 9 3 2 8 11 13 6 12 5    
Gray BAL WAS NO HOU NYJ TB GB CAR ATL SD ARI DAL NE NYG 51 53
  14 2 3 11 6 7 10 4 8 12 13 1 9 5    
Tuccitto BAL WAS NO HOU NYJ TB GB CAR PHI SD ARI PIT NE NYG 49 53
  13 3 1 4 10 8 7 6 2 11 14 5 12 9    
Knotts BAL WAS NO HOU NYJ TB GB KC ATL SD ARI PIT NE NYG 48 47
  14 6 5 2 7 9 13 1 8 12 11 3 10 4    
Mamula BAL MIN NO HOU NYJ TB GB CAR ATL SD ARI DAL NE NYG 45 47
  12 8 5 4 3 2 11 1 10 7 14 9 13 6    
Larkin BAL MIN DEN HOU NYJ CHI GB CAR ATL SD ARI PIT NE NYG 45 46
  13 2 5 8 7 1 11 3 12 9 14 4 10 6    
Feery BAL MIN NO HOU NYJ TB GB CAR ATL SD ARI DAL NE NYG 45 45
  14 4 10 3 2 1 7 9 11 5 13 8 12 6    
Wood BAL MIN NO HOU LAR TB GB CAR ATL MIA ARI DAL NE CIN 53 42
  5 12 7 8 4 3 9 10 11 2 14 6 13 1    
Brimacombe BAL MIN NO HOU NYJ TB GB CAR PHI SD ARI PIT NE CIN 52 39
  13 3 2 7 8 4 12 11 1 6 14 9 10 5    
Heiser BAL WAS NO JAX NYJ CHI GB CAR ATL SD ARI PIT NE NYG 42 38
  12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 13 14 3 2 1    
Away CLE MIN DEN HOU LAR CHI GB KC ATL MIA SF DAL SEA CIN    
Total Pts 0 37 33 111 6 21 137 23 113 8 0 63 1 12    
Home BAL WAS NO JAX NYJ TB TEN CAR PHI SD ARI PIT NE NYG    
Total Pts 228 93 79 16 95 75 14 71 7 125 245 25 162 90    

With a lower number of games, the losses started to pile up quickly on Sunday morning. Losses by the Saints, Jets, Packers and Panthers really put the field in a hole on Sunday morning and the Chargers and Patriots really drove home a low scoring week for most in the afternoon. Had Arizona lost to the 49ers, this week would have been brutal. 

OVERALL RANKINGS

This week's contest shows just how hard it is to make big moves at this point in the season. Larkin had a down week, scoring just 46 points and despite the fact that Hicks, Garda and Wimer all scored much better than Larkin did this week, his lead is still 33 points after 10 weeks this season. Knotts score 1 more point than Larkin did this week, but he tumbled from 2nd on the overall board to 7th. Just 8 points separates 2nd from 7th after 10 weeks. 

Staffer Wk01 Wk02 Wk03 Wk04 Wk05 Wk06 Wk07 Wk08 Wk09 Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17 Total
Larkin 120 104 67 64 70 79 98 63 61 46               772
Hicks 64 105 69 83 62 87 78 50 63 78               739
Garda 87 98 76 71 60 60 70 58 75 84               739
Wimer 83 90 89 80 63 79 70 64 58 59               735
Bitonti 90 64 78 67 85 79 71 69 71 59               733
Miglio 88 94 69 65 67 74 85 60 71 60               733
Knotts 88 82 83 66 73 77 78 65 72 47               731
Tuccitto 87 92 80 66 63 75 79 68 63 53               726
Brimacombe 74 87 82 85 63 89 87 46 66 39               718
Kuczynski 98 79 68 73 61 69 68 58 77 59               710
Gray 85 88 58 71 53 87 76 62 69 53               702
Heiser 82 55 69 68 72 86 92 58 76 38               696
Grant 75 84 65 74 66 65 64 59 79 61               692
Mamula 79 99 46 67 78 78 70 62 63 47               689
Roberts 88 89 70 70 60 65 67 43 61 66               679
Pasquino 84 90 59 57 59 73 74 52 64 61               673
Feery 72 83 66 59 63 74 69 71 66 45               668
Wood 86 87 45 56 66 65 92 49 68 42               656

THIS WEEK'S PICKS

Here are the picks for this week

Staffer NO ARI BAL PIT BUF TEN TB JAX CHI MIA PHI NE GB HOU MNF TOT
  CAR MIN DAL CLE CIN IND KC DET NYG LAR SEA SF WAS OAK TOT Pts
Miglio CAR MIN DAL PIT CIN IND KC DET NYG MIA SEA NE WAS OAK 49 105
  6 5 13 10 4 2 9 12 11 1 7 14 3 8    
Garda CAR ARI DAL PIT CIN TEN KC DET NYG MIA SEA NE WAS OAK 45 105
  9 6 4 12 3 2 10 11 13 1 8 14 5 7    
Hicks CAR MIN DAL PIT CIN IND KC DET NYG LAR SEA NE WAS OAK 49 105
  2 4 11 14 5 3 12 10 9 1 13 6 7 8    
Heiser CAR ARI DAL PIT BUF TEN KC DET NYG MIA SEA NE GB OAK 46 105
  11 10 9 8 12 13 7 6 5 4 3 2 14 1    
Feery NO ARI DAL PIT CIN TEN KC DET NYG MIA PHI NE WAS OAK 45 105
  6 8 14 9 1 7 13 4 12 3 5 10 2 11    
Kuczynski NO ARI DAL PIT CIN TEN KC DET NYG MIA SEA NE GB OAK 49 105
  1 6 8 13 3 2 9 12 11 7 10 14 4 5    
Gray CAR MIN DAL PIT CIN IND KC DET NYG LAR SEA NE WAS OAK 52 105
  3 1 12 8 6 4 9 11 13 2 10 14 5 7    
Tuccitto CAR MIN DAL PIT CIN IND KC DET NYG LAR SEA NE WAS OAK 49 105
  6 3 10 9 2 5 13 11 12 1 8 14 4 7    
Larkin CAR MIN DAL PIT CIN IND KC DET NYG MIA SEA NE GB OAK 48 105
  5 2 7 12 6 4 14 13 10 3 9 11 1 8    
Knotts CAR MIN DAL PIT CIN IND KC DET NYG LAR SEA NE GB OAK 45 105
  5 4 13 14 7 3 8 6 11 2 10 12 1 9    
Brimacombe CAR ARI DAL PIT CIN IND KC DET NYG LAR SEA NE GB OAK 44 105
  1 2 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 3 7 6 5 4    
Wood CAR ARI DAL PIT BUF TEN KC JAX NYG MIA PHI NE GB OAK 43 105
  7 6 13 8 9 4 3 2 10 1 12 14 5 11    
Pasquino NO ARI DAL PIT BUF TEN KC DET NYG MIA SEA NE GB OAK 47 105
  6 2 13 12 10 7 11 1 9 3 5 14 4 8    
Mamula CAR ARI DAL PIT BUF TEN KC DET NYG MIA SEA NE GB OAK 45 105
  5 4 12 13 3 2 7 10 11 6 9 14 1 8    
Roberts CAR MIN DAL PIT BUF TEN KC DET NYG LAR SEA NE GB OAK 51 105
  4 1 13 12 3 8 10 7 11 6 9 14 2 5    
Wimer CAR ARI DAL PIT CIN TEN KC DET NYG MIA SEA NE GB OAK 59 105
  5 8 7 12 4 3 11 10 14 6 9 2 1 13    
Bitonti NO MIN DAL PIT CIN TEN KC DET NYG MIA SEA NE WAS OAK 56 105
  2 5 8 7 6 4 12 10 13 3 11 14 1 9    
Grant CAR ARI DAL PIT CIN TEN KC DET NYG MIA SEA NE WAS OAK 45 105
  6 5 9 11 4 2 12 8 13 3 10 14 1 7    
Away NO ARI BAL PIT BUF TEN TB JAX CHI MIA PHI NE GB HOU    
Total Pts 15 57 0 197 37 54 0 2 0 41 17 203 38 0    
Home CAR MIN DAL CLE CIN IND KC DET NYG LAR SEA SF WAS OAK    
Total Pts 75 25 190 0 63 32 180 151 196 15 138 0 28 136    

HEAVY FAVORITES

Dallas, Pittsburgh, Kansas City, NY Giants, New England and Oakland were all unanimous selections this week with the Patriots receiving the most confidence points on the road in San Francisco. Detroit and Seattle are also heavy favorites this week, and Carolina has a healthy chunk of people behind them for tonight's contest. 

DUAL SUPPORT

The staff faded the Miami - LA Rams game this week, risking just 56 confidence points on the contest, and giving Miami a slight edge. That's less than 4 points per staffer riding on this game. The Green Bay - Washington game is the closest contest, with just 66 total confidence points and the Packers receiving just 10 additional confidence points. Tennessee at Indianapolis, Arizona at Minnesota, and Buffalo at Cincinnati are also closer games that you may want to move to the bottom of your confidence board this week.  

ODDS AND ENDS

This week's an interesting mix with several teams being favored by six or more points according to the Las Vegas line, and a couple games that are basically a coin toss. Use the overall confidence point totals as a guide to see which games might be the ones that you don't want to risk as many points on. Don't be afraid to take a shot on a team you feel strongly about, just make sure to manage your risk appropriately on the other contests.  

Good luck this weekend!

Photos provided by Imagn Images
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