Once your top backs—guys like Adrian Peterson, LeSean McCoy, Marshawn Lynch and Jamaal Charles—are gone, it can be a bear to figure out which back to take. With the running back pool as deep as it is, you cam make a firm argument to go another direction instead or you can roll the dice on guys you might not be as sold on.
This year, it's really very simple: pick Eddie Lacy.
Last season saw Lacy fight through injury, carry the Green Bay Packers offense on his back when Aaron Rodgers was out, and cap his 1,000-yard season by being named Offensive Rookie of the Year.
This year, Aaron Rodgers is back and the receivers are healthy so that should mean some sort of regression, right?
As Lee Corso might say:
Lacy should absolutely be a top NFL (and more importantly, fantasy) running back in 2014.
A lot of the staff agrees, as does his current ADP.
But I’ve actually had more than a few people ask me why they should spend that high pick when they could grab another back who has more consistent history to look at like Marshawn Lynch or a sure fire elite receiver like Calvin Johnson.
So let’s look at exactly why Lacy is poised for yet another great season.
Opportunity
Aaron Rodgers is back, so that means no more running you say?
Baloney.
Some version of the “Packers never run” gem gets trotted out almost every year. It makes sense on the surface because prior to last season, the Packers hadn’t had a running back carry more than 200 times since Ryan Grant in 2009.
In the “what have you done for me lately?” world of fantasy football, that’s a long time.
Let’s put that in context though. During most of that span, the Packers were dealing with backs who couldn’t stay healthy as well as backs who were average, at best. Guys like Alex Green, Brandon Jackson, and James Starks have all had a shot and either couldn’t stay on the field or couldn’t keep up consistent production.
Lacy is a cut above that group in both skill and durability. While he missed one early game due to a concussion, he played through a ton of nicks and scrapes with no real ill-effects and didn’t need a break down the stretch at a time when rookies tend to burn out.
On top of that, Lacy produced excellent numbers despite seeing stacked fronts during the seven weeks when Rodgers was out.
He frequently faced stacked fronts because defenses didn't seem to care who was throwing the ball as long as it wasn’t Rodgers. Lacy ran hard every down, and had to overcome some poor run blocking from an offensive line which battled injuries again.
Lacy also added 35 receptions and showed better than expected pass blocking skills.
So we saw his durability and we saw his skill—skill which defeated stacked fronts every week.
It’s Not A Bug, It’s a Feature
Sure, the Packers have a healthy offense and will undoubtedly open the pass game up. We’ll see more Rodgers along with more Randall Cobb and Jordy Nelson but that doesn’t mean we have to see a lot less of Lacy.
In fact, having the pass game firing off on all cylinders isn’t a bad thing—it’s the best thing.
Because if Lacy could rip up defenses when he saw stacked fronts, what will he be capable of when he sees six men or less in the box?
We get so wrapped up in passing numbers, that we forget that running is still a vital part of a successful offense.
Remember that screencap from earlier, where we counted out the men in the box against Lacy when Rodgers wasn’t in the game Week 9 against the Chicago Bears?
Here’s one from a week earlier when Rodgers was playing.
That’s a defensive formation with maybe six players in the box, with the middle linebacker dropped back just a bit and clearly more concerned with a potential pass. Also, not just one but both corners are playing off the receivers, far more worried about getting burned long than they are allowing a run to go a few yards deeper.
So even if the return of all the players the team was missing last year results in fewer carries, the quality of those carries should go up.
Toughness
We saw Lacy battle the aftermath of an early concussion, fight through a hurt ankle and still produce consistent points for the Packers and fantasy owners.
While many rookies wear down at the end of the season, Lacy didn’t. He kept his yardage totals up and scored touchdowns in four straight games to close out the season and six of the last eight.
Injuries caused many teams to pass on Lacy—the Denver Broncos even said it publically— but they weren’t a factor last season when it comes down to it and they don't appear to be as we barrel into the 2014 NFL season.
Share The Load: Heck NO!
There is no reason to assume that James Starks or DuJuan Harris will steal many carries. It didn't happen last season (although in Harris' case he was hurt) and it won't this year either. While Starks has shown ability more than once, he's nowhere near as good as Lacy. His perfomance in training camp and preseason action merely remind Lacy owners that he is a handy pickup as a handcuff—no more, no less.
I love Harris, but coming off a ruptured patellar tendon is a tough thing and is the sort of injury which curtails careers. Will Harris be the back he was prior to injury? It's unlikely and even on his best day (and through my Harris-Colored-Glasses) I couldn't say he was serious competition for Lacy.
Of course, Johnathan Franklin retired due to a neck injury. Nobody left is a serious contender.
So don't worry about Lacy losing carries. As long as he is healthy, he's the stud in the Green Bay backfield.
As I said earlier, normally during your draft it’s hard to figure out the guy to take once the top four or five backs are gone.
This year it’s easy—take Lacy and don’t look back.
