I spent the last few weeks in East Rutherford, New Jersey covering the New York Giants' training camp and watching as they installed their new offense. I think it's ,more than safe to say there is a lot of fantasy potential here.
Of course, the key is going to be narrowing down who has the most potential and is going to provide the most bang for your buck.
So allow me to break down what I saw overall during the last few weeks and point out where it’s going to benefit fantasy owners the most as well as those who aren't likely to provide as much value.
For those of you unfamiliar with the basics, this is essentially the offense the Green Bay Packers use and is predicated on getting the ball out of the quarterback’s hands and into his receiver’s. This is especially good for a team which has had some offensive line issues, as the Giants did in 2013.
It’s even better if you have a receiver like Victor Cruz, who excels with the ball in his hand. He told me he was excited to jump into the new offense and take advantage of getting the ball quickly.
“I like to have the ball in my hands,” he told me, “whether it be on a 3-yard route or a 30-yard route. I want the ball in my hands so I can make big-time moves, make people miss and get in that end zone, which is one of the things I feel I do best.”
Fantasy owners should be as excited as Cruz is. Watching him and Eli Manning connect is a thing of beauty and Cruz advancing the ball after a quick slant will make your mouth water.
This is the style of offense which saw a healthy Randall Cobb targeted 112 times, resulting in 80 catches for 954 yards and eight touchdown. And we know Cobb, as talented as he is, is nowhere near as talented as Cruz.
While it’s early, I not only see Cruz as a top-ten fantasy receiver in this offense, but potentially a top ten fantasy player overall. It wouldn’t be shocking at all to see Cruz approach the numbers he hit back in 2011 when he was indeed a top ten fantasy player.
Along with Cruz, you should be taking a hard look at Eli Manning.
According Manning’s player page here at Footballguys, Manning’s ADP shows him as the 153rd player off the board and the 21st quarterback. While the low ranking is understandable for a guy who just threw 27 interceptions in a season, he has only topped 20 one other time in his career (2008) and his overall stats that season were still very good.
From what I saw over the past two weeks, you will see far less than the 27 interceptions in 2014. This offense is aimed at making Manning’s life easier with quicker reads, a fast pace and receivers who can make plays with the ball in their hands. Sure, you can tell there is a long way to go (coach Tom Coughlin has said the offense is only 50 percent installed) and they had some rough moments on Sunday, but you’ll see how good they are by Week 1.
Maybe this limb is thin, but I’m out on it—Manning is going to be a very good QB2 and should be in the top 15 of people’s rankings.
Another guy who is looking excellent is Rashad Jennings. He’s been running the ball extremely well and is poised to be a big factor in the offense.
Jennings has been getting drafted in the sixth round so far this summer, as a high-end RB3 or very low-end RB2. This is missing the mark. While we know this is a quick-hit offense which will pass a lot, we also can see by the offensive line (some big drive blockers) they have assembled that they will run the ball plenty.
On top of that, the team has taken to lining him up all over the offensive front—they throw him in the slot, out wide, as more of an H-back. In other words, he's going to get used early and often which will provide lots of fantasy points for GMs.
I see Jennings as a very strong RB2 with upside—and it seems he is a guy you can wait on just a little to grab while addressing other positions with one of your first two picks.
Of course, while there are players I am bullish on, there are a few I am less excited by.
People have been high on rookie running back Andre Williams for a while now, and might be even more excited now that David Wilson is gone.
Don’t get carried away though, especially after a nice performance on Sunday night against the Bills. While he was on the field for several pass plays, he was basically out as a distraction or second-level blocker. In practices it is clear his pass-blocking and pass-catching skills are still works in progress.
That’s par for the course for many rookie backs, though maybe more of an issue here as Williams had just 10 receptions in his collegiate career.
The long and short of it is, we won’t see him on the field much in passing downs and that caps his upside. This is Jennings’ offense and the team is not shy about sprinkling in guys like Peyton Hillis and Michael Cox. While neither of them is worth a roster spot, they limit Williams’ ceiling barring injury.
It’s not all bad, though as he will see plenty of short yardage and goal line work. That gives him added value in touchdown-heavy leagues. The staff has him ranked largely as an RB5 and that sounds about right.
Back in the passing game, there is a lot of opportunity there for receivers not named Cruz, but the consistency hasn’t been present yet in practice.
Rueben Randle has looked more comfortable in this offense than Kevin Gilbride’s and the simplified choices McAdoo has given him has led to positive progress. His timing with Manning looks fine and his place as a starter seems secured. Still, there are a lot of weapons here and that can limit him and he hasn't quite been consistent enough in practice to get excited about.
One piece of upside for him is the tremendous amount of looks he gets in the red zone in practices and will see a bunch of chances there, though again sharing them with many others. He’s a solid WR4 right now with the potential for a little more.
It’s virtually impossible to say how good Odell Beckham Jrwill be given that he only practiced half of the first day of camp before popping his hamstring (the same one which kept him out of OTAs). If you want to take a late round flier on, that’s fine. Just don’t expect much production, especially early. He needs to build chemistry with Manning and you don’t do that in the film room so the longer he’s out, the further behind he gets. The fact that his hamstring has been flaring up since OTAs should also be a big red flag for this year as it could very well be an issue all season.
With Beckham sidelined, Jerrel Jernigan has seen a lot more work which means we’ve seen more inconsistency. He has issues with drops at times, but has been overall serviceable as a replacement for Beckham’s vertical ability. As soon as Beckham comes back, he’ll see his role reduced though, and I’m not bullish on his ability to produce many fantasy points on a consistent basis. Unlike Beckham, I don’t feel there is any upside here and I wouldn’t waste a roster space on Jernigan this season.
Speaking of not wasting roster space, let’s end with some tight end talk. There is talent here and the team really wants Adrien Robinson to succeed. GM Jerry Reese alluded to hoping for a Julius Thomas-like year from Robinson and it’s clear there is ability.
The problem is, he doesn’t flash it consistently. Nor does anyone else really. Kellen Davis, Daniel Fells, Larry Donnell and Xavier Grimble all have had moments but none on a regular basis. As it stands, there is no tight end I would go out of my way to grab on this team.
