Every preseason we hear a ton of ‘he’s done, avoid him’ about Frank Gore but every NFL season proper finds us watching him rip off another 1,000-yard season.
Gore has left the 49ers and the Bay Area in California for Indianapolis and the Colts. Will he leave his 1,000-yard seasons behind as age finally catches up or will Gore continue to put up solid numbers in 2015?
Offensive Line
Gore finds himself behind an offensive line which was ranked 17th in the NFL last season, leaving behind the No. 9 ranked line in the league (Per Pro Football Focus). It’s a significant drop in ability, even though the Colts' offensive line was passable last year. If all things stay the same, Gore will have a harder time behind a much less able offensive line.
It’s also a line which didn’t do much to improve itself this offseason. The team added former Eagle guard Todd Herremans in free agency, but while Herremans is versatile (he played along four different line positions while he was in Philadelphia) he’s an aging, limited blocker over all.
On the plus side, the one thing he does very well is run-block, which does help Gore.
But Herremans was virtually the only addition to the offensive line for the Colts, the only other move being selecting Denzelle Good in the seventh round of the 2015 NFL Draft.
Interestingly enough, the one thing Good is known for is run blocking, though it’s hard to imagine a late round pick dead last on the depth chart indicates much of anything for Gore.
Can this line improve?
The key is an injury-free year at center, with Khaled Holmes battling ankle injuries all last season. At best this is an average line overall, but could be a slightly above-average run blocking line.
Gore is going to have to work much harder for the most part, but should be successful here.
SURROUND BY A Great offense
Here’s the good news: Gore is in an offense which can pass the ball well, which means defenses will not be keying on him. As much as Colin Kaepernick has at times shown himself to be a solid quarterback, he’s not the passer Andrew Luck is.
So Gore will see few stacked boxes, a very good thing given the offensive line in front of him and his aging legs.
Here’s the bad news: Gore is in an offense which can pass the ball very well and is centered on one of the better young quarterbacks in the NFL. While adding Gore was a sign that the Colts aren’t looking to make Luck carry the offense completely on his back again, this is still Luck’s team.
He’s averaged 604 pass attempts per season, and while the Colts might drop it a little with Gore in the house, it won’t change much. Which means that Gore is likely to be at the low side of his average carries from over the course of the last few seasons. Expect him to be somewhere closer to the 255 he had last season than the 276 or 282 he had in 2013 and 2011, respectively.
This limits his production upside a little bit. The big question is, how much did the Colts bring him in to do? If they brought him in to lean on him, he should get in the neighborhood of 240-250 carries. While the Colts haven’t had a ball-carrier with even close to that amount since Vick Ballard’s 211 in 2011, they also haven’t had a capable ball-carrier since long before that.
Ultimately, I don’t think they brought Gore in to use him like they would a Vick Ballard, Trent Richardson or Donald Brown. The team has called an average of 347 run plays over the three years Luck has been in Indianapolis. That shouldn’t change much this year, though it has decreased a little each year.
Even if it falls further this season, there should still be more than 300 carries to divide and little competition. Gore won’t get all these, but I think it’s perfectly reasonable for him to not only get most of them but (assuming he stays healthy) near his normal carry total.
The Colts have said they see him as a workhorse, every down back. While that won’t result in a 300-carry workload, seeing him at his average 240-250 carries is reasonable.
Age is just a number
While we have seen a decline in production since 2012, it’s been a slow leak and a lot of it has to do with the complete lack of respect the Niners passing game garners. As Scott Kacsmer of Football Outsiders tweeted in early June, nobody faced stacked boxes more than Gore – and by a wide margin.
Most 2014 runs vs. 8+ in the box 1. Frank Gore, 76 2. DeMarco Murray, 58 3. Justin Forsett, 52 @NFLguy07840
— Scott Kacsmar (@FO_ScottKacsmar) June 1, 2015
That, more than age or anything else has held Gore back the last few years.
That’s not to say that Gore will suddenly run for 2,000 yards or anything – just a reminder that there is more to his production dip than age.
While he’s absolutely lost a step, Gore is still a very good north-south running back who can both break away from defenders as well as run them over. As important as ability, which he still clearly has, Gore wants that 1,000 yards season and a Super Bowl ring. That he was interested in the Eagles, but then backed out due to concerns about the offense says a lot about desire and what he wants in terms of fit. He was looking for a place which would still give him the chance to succeed, not just a paycheck.
Gore is going to Indianapolis to put in work.
We constantly hear about the age of 30 being the end of the world for running backs, and there is support for that point of view. But we’ve also seen players buck that trend and Gore has done so for two years.
He should be good for that again this season.
Positives
- Better passing offense means less stacked boxes for Gore, which should translate to a better yards per carry average
- The Colts didn’t bring Gore in to hand him minimal carries, so he shouldn’t see a sever drop-off in overall runs
- Gore catches the ball well and is good in pass protection, which means he’ll be on the field a ton, gaining him even more opportunities
- Fantasy GMs always overlook Gore, which means you can probably get him at solid value
Negatives
- Over the past three years, Gore’s numbers have steadily declined. Is age finally catching up to him?
- While a better passing offense means less stacked boxes, it’s also an offense which is not focused on the run. Andrew Luck will get his and that will limit Gore’s overall production.
- The offensive line is a step back – will less stacked boxes be negated by a shaky offensive line?
- Gore has not been a touchdown machine and that doesn’t look like it will be changed this season.
Final THOUGHTS
While he’s not the back he once was, we’re looking at a man who is still driven, clearly has ability and is in a pretty good situation. Gore’s decline has been far from sudden nor has it been sharp. He’s had 1,000 yards in eight of his ten seasons playing in the NFL, and he’s done it in some pretty bad passing offenses.
Gore is an incredibly solid RB2 and this season he even has a little upside with Andrew Luck under center. He’s well worth that second round pick for Fantasy GMs.
Projections
Games |
Rushes |
Yards |
Touchdowns |
Receptions |
Yards |
Touchdowns |
16 |
250 |
1050 |
7 |
30 |
230 |
2 |
Other Viewpoints
ESPN’s Paul Gutierrez followed up on some ex-49ers recently and asked fellow ESPN reporter Mike Wells about Gore’s transition to Colts running back. Aside from being content to share the ball, Gore is thrilled to see less men in the box.
FoxSports.com says that Gore absolutely has something to prove this season quoting Gore as saying:
"When you watch (last year's) film, and you see what I did when I did get opportunities, I did great things with it," Gore said. "I'm not knocking DeMarco Murray — I think he's a great back — but I feel like I was the probably the top guy on the market this last offseason.
"My challenge is that I want to show the league that I can still be Frank Gore — that's in every phase of the game, not just running."
Lindsay Jones of USA Today says Gore is expecting a very heavy workload in a bounce-back season.