One has to wonder if the bar Cam Newton set during his first two years in the NFL might be a little too high.
After throwing for 4,051 yards and 21 touchdowns while running for another 706 yards and 14 touchdowns in his rookie season, then throwing for 3,869 and 19 touchdowns with 741 yards rushing and 8 touchdowns, expectations were high.
Too high, as Fantasy GMs were disappointed with numbers that didn’t reach – really didn’t come close – what happened during Newton’s first two seasons.
Which, if you’re paying attention, could put you in position for a very nice bargain.
Numbers Never Lie (except when they do)
Despite yardage and touchdown totals which dropped, Newton still finished as the No. 6 fantasy quarterback, despite missing two games. That’s not bad for a guy who was going in the eighth round in 2014. While people were drafting Jay Cutler, Nick Foles and Matt Stafford rounds earlier, savvy owners were grabbing Newton.
Why did this pay off?
Newton continues to add value because of his legs, and while he didn’t run for 700-plus in either the 2013 or 2014 seasons, he still totaled 500-plus yards. His rushing touchdowns dipped a little as well (6 and 5 scores respectively) but the combination still was plenty favorable for GMs who had him on their rosters.
Also, while his touchdown totals on the ground were down a little, his passing touchdowns continue to hover at around 20 on average. Last season he threw 18 touchdowns and the year before he had a career high of 24.
All this behind an offensive line that was less than fantastic (ranked No. 22 in the NFL by Pro Football Focus) as it tried to adjust to a pair of sudden retirements and some injuries throughout the season.
The team didn’t make any massive improvements to the line this offseason, waiting until the fourth round to draft someone and signing two players who have struggled at tackle – Michael Oher and Jonathan Martin – to shore it up. It might play better, which would only be good for Newton’s passing numbers, but it could struggle again which might force the Panthers to rely on Newton’s feet again.
We don’t expect him to approach the 120-plus rushing attempts he had in his first two seasons, but he should repeat the 110 or so he has run the last two years.
Maybe his passing numbers are a bit unimpressive at face value, but Newton more than makes up for it with his legs and should again this season.
Improved Weapons
Kelvin Benjamin and tight end Greg Olsen did the heavy lifting in terms of targets and completions, Benjamin with almost double the targets of the next receiver, Jerricho Cotchery.
That shouldn’t be the case this season as the team drafted David Funchess in the second round this past April and added Ted Ginn Jr and Jarrett Boykin to the roster as well.
None of these guys will be confused for Hall of Fame players, but they should provide some alternate options for Newton as well as build more room for Olsen and Benjamin.
Lack of Turnovers
While his passing touchdown totals have stayed high, his interceptions have stayed low. Newton’s fumbles were occasionally issue last season (he had 9, but only lost 5 per NFL.com) but overall his turnovers were few and far between.
That will matter more in some leagues than others, depending on the penalties for an interception or a fumble. Some leagues don’t deduct points for fumbles when it comes to quarterbacks at all, but for those that do, Newton is a good bet to cause you very little.
Positives
- Newton adds rushing yards and touchdowns to your points total.
- The Panthers are finally adding some more weapons for him to use.
- Newton will not lose the ball often and cost you points.
Negatives
- The offensive line is still and issue and will result in sacks and potentially more turnovers.
- While there are more weapons, it’s still mostly just Benjamin and Olsen and therefore limited unless Funchess breaks out.
- Newton’s passing numbers have dropped every year since his rookie season. Will that trend continue?
Final Thoughts
Newton gets a bit of a bad rap – always has – from fantasy owners and media alike. He has done a ton in his brief career to date, often with little or nothing to work with. The offensive line is still a concern, and he pays for it when holding onto the ball too long hoping to make a play. That said, considering how much later he goes than some other top fantasy quarterbacks, he’s not only a great producer but a great value. I expect the extra weapons and some more stable from the offensive line will see his passing yards rise, along with his touchdowns.
|
Games Played |
Passing Yards |
TDs |
INTs |
Rushing Yards |
Rushing TDs |
|
16 |
3,550 |
22 |
12 |
600 |
6 |
Other Viewpoints
Over at Peter King’s Monday Morning Quarterback, Andy Benoit ranked all 32 starting NFL quarterbacks, putting Cam Newton at No. 16.
Brad Gagnon of Bleacher Report writes that Newton needs to improve his accuracy to get paid like one of the best if he wants to be considered one of the best.
And it's also worth noting that among the 28 quarterbacks who have started at least 32 games (equivalent to two full seasons) during the last four years, Newton ranks 18th with a passer rating of just 85.4. You could argue that such a statistic isn't fair to Newton because he was a rookie at the outset, but he's never had a single season with a passer rating above 88.8.
As a passer, he's been consistently mediocre.
K.C. Joyner of ESPN says that Newton’s accuracy issues fall (quite literally) at the feet of what has been a poor group of wide receivers during his career.
I've been breaking down game tapes for 12 seasons. In that time, there might be only a couple of clubs that had a worse wide receiving corps than the Panthers had last year.
According to ESPN Stats & Information, Carolina's wide receivers ranked last in the league in yards after contact per reception (1.0), 31st in yards after catch per reception (3.0) and 27th in reception percentage (55.9 percent of the targets thrown their way were converted into receptions).
My game tracking indicated the Panthers had the highest percentage of pass plays where a coverage defender was credited with having good coverage on the intended receiver (25.9 percent). Some of this obviously depends on if the quarterback decides to throw the ball to a receiver who isn't open, but given how badly these pass-catchers' numbers were last season, a great deal of the fault here has to go to their inability to get open.
