The first three years Chicago Bears wide receiver Alshon Jeffery have been in the years have contained a little bit of everything: a shaky rookie season, a fantastic second year and a slight regression in the third year. He’s had a few quarterback hiccups, been the second banana to a fantastic receiver and seen his touchdown totals go up all three years.
Jeffery’s fourth season will contain yet another change as Brandon Marshall was traded to the New York Jets, leaving Jeffery the No. 1 receiver on the Bears.
He has the tools; he has the talent
In so far as being capable of carrying the load, Jeffery certainly has the talent to warrant the Bears’ faith. Over the last two years we have seen him make some amazing catches as he developed into quite a receiver.
Physically, we know Jeffery has the natural talent and athleticism to be a No. 1 receiver. He can aggressively go after a ball in the air, has the speed to create separation and the athleticism to avoid and break tackles after the catch.
Can he be the primary receiver?
Of course, all the talent in the world is no guarantee of success.
While he’s done well across from Marshall, the question is whether Jeffery really can be the No. 1 receiver in this offense. We’ve seen many players with enough talent to do so fall on their faces when their time in the spotlight came.
Marshall missed the last three games of the 2014 NFL season, leaving Jeffery as the primary target. He was thrown to more than any other target in two of those three games, only being out-targeted in Week 17 by Martellus Bennett and Matt Forte in a 13-9 loss to the Minnesota Vikings where quarterback Jay Cutler threw for just 172 yards and no touchdowns. Jeffery did struggle against Vikings cornerback Xavier Rhodes as well and made a nice catch in the end zone but failed to get both feet in bounds.
In fairness, he did blow the Vikings up in Week 11 to the tune of 135 yards and a touchdown on 11 catches.
The previous two games without Marshall were far more successful though.
Against the Detroit Lions at home in Week 16, Jeffery put together 72 yards and a touchdown on six catches. It wasn’t an easy day by any means, particularly when he was paired up with Rashean Mathis, who held him to one catch for nine yards on six targets. More successful were Jeffery’s efforts against Darius Slay, who gave up three catches for 50 yards and a touchdown on six targets. Mathis and Slay were ranked in the Top 20 of Pro Football Focus’ cornerbacks, so that’s nothing to sneeze at (subscription required).
In Week 15 against the New Orleans Saints, Jeffery caught four balls for 78 yards and a touchdown on nine targets. He mostly paired up against Keenan Lewis, who Pro Football Focus ranked as the No. 98 best corner in the NFL for 2014 (subscription required). Lewis was no match for Jeffery’s size and speed, and was overwhelmed on a lot of plays.
So clearly, Jeffery can put it all together and handle the duties of a No. 1 receiver.
As a plus, rookie Kevin White should be able to draw coverage from Jeffery as well. There is a danger he could eat into Jeffery’s numbers a little, but likely the payoff from having a dangerous player across from Jeffery will be worth the trade off.
It's not all sunshine and roses
There are two things which could hold Jeffery back though. The first—overall route running to help him gain separation—is something he can control and has been working on.
The second though, is his quarterback. Jay Cutler, aside from being famously prickly, is inconsistent. He can follow up a great throw with a terrible one, a transcendent game with a disaster. Of course, as he goes, so goes the passing offense.
If Cutler continues to be streaky, that will hurt Jeffery a little bit. Still, while it could keep him from the 1,400 yards he had in 2013, he’ll still easily put up numbers as good, if not better than his 2014 ones.
Despite that, Jeffery remains a solid choice as a WR1 for redraft leagues and a must-have in dynasty realms.
Positives
- Jeffery is the clear-cut lead receiver on a team which throws way more than it runs.
- He has proven he can overcome top-flight defenders to make plays.
- Jeffery has improved his game every season.
- Jeffery’s touchdown totals have risen each year.
Negatives
- Jay Cutler’s inconsistency can hurt Alshon Jeffery’s overall numbers.
- A new coaching staff could shift philosophy away from a pass-heavy offense, thereby limiting Jeffery’s chances.
- While he did well in short a short stretch as No. 1, an entire season is another matter and he could struggle.
- Rookie Kevin White could impact Jeffery’s numbers.
Final Thoughts
Jeffery is in great position to really put up some big numbers for his fantasy GMs this season. While there will undoubtedly be rough spots here and there due to quarterback play or a shift in philosophy, Jeffery has proven that he is an outstanding wide receiver, who should be able to step into the No. 1 role for the Bears and excel.
Projections
|
Games |
Receptions |
Yards |
Touchdowns |
|
16 |
85 |
1,300 |
9 |
Other viewpoints
Patrick Finley of the Chicago Sun-Times says that while Jeffery is Cutler’s first option, replacing Brandon Marshall will be a team effort.
The Bears can’t replace Marshall one-for-one. They know that. That’s why the team drafted Kevin White No. 7 overall and signed Eddie Royal to a three-year, $15 million contract. White missed mandatory minicamp with an undisclosed injury, but should return in time for training camp July 29, coach John Fox said Thursday.
Meanwhile, Jeff Dickerson of ESPN.com writes that Cutler feels that Jeffery is not only ready to be the main receiver, but a leader as well.
"I don't see why [Jeffery can't be the No. 1]," Cutler said."He makes big plays for us, he knows the offense, he's a big target, and I think more importantly that's the guy he wants to become. He wants to become the No. 1 everyday out here, and he's taking the proper steps.
"He's always been a quiet guy, but anytime you put on film or see him work in the weight room or on the field, you can't deny that. It inspires the receivers, myself and everyone else to work as hard as he's working."
Sean Wagner-McGough of CBSSports.com played a game of “Would You Rather” and compared Jeffery with another young wide receiver in Tampa Bay’s Mike Evans.
