We all know the story with Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers—tremendous arm, fast release, excellent accuracy, dangerous mobility. He can read a defense better than most of the quarterbacks out there, adjust to what they show pre-snap as well as change up what he’s doing based on the shifts which take place after the ball hits his hands.
Return to Greatness
After an injury-shortened 2013, Rodgers got right back to business in 2014, throwing for 4,381 yards with 38 touchdowns and just five interceptions. Rodgers hasn’t had double-digit interceptions since 2010 (still just 11 though), and has only had it happen twice in his career. He has never thrown more interceptions than touchdowns and has tossed 226 scores compared to 57 picks. Which means for every interception, Rodgers throws close to four touchdowns (3.96 to be precise).
That’s reliability, vital for both his team and fantasy owners. It’s even more staggering when you consider how often his offensive line has been plagued with injuries and allowed him to get him. Of course, that gets back to his mobility, because even when the defense breaks the line of scrimmage, Rodgers can kill them on the run.
A Loaded WR Corps
It doesn’t hurt that the Packers continue to churn out great receivers. Both Randall Cobb and Jordy Nelson have a lot to do with the success of this offense, Cobb with his dynamic after-the-catch ability and Nelson with his penchant for the circus catch. Consider though, that not long ago, Greg Jennings and James Jones had both been mainstays in this offense. Rodgers moved on from them and didn’t miss a beat. Even when Nelson or Cobb has been banged up, Rodgers has been able to be successful with guys like Jarrett Boykin who, while no scrub, isn’t on the level of Nelson or Cobb yet. Right now though, Cobb and Nelson are healthy and ready to go, which will only help Rodgers keep up the high level of productivity we expect from him.
All Hail Eddie Lacy
Ditto the continuing improvement of the ground game. There was some concern that as Eddie Lacy became a bigger part of the offense, he might hurt Rodgers’ numbers. However, in his second 1,000-plus year in a row, Lacy didn’t seem to hurt Rodgers at all. In point of fact, his success has done nothing but help Rodgers by keeping the defense at bay, making sure they are honest and don’t just tee off on the aerial attack.
Lacy makes the safeties pull up to contain him, which leaves the cornerbacks in man coverage a lot more, playing to Rodgers and his receiver strengths. Having Lacy running the ball well also keeps the linebackers from just blitzing Rodgers every down, because if they overplay their hand and Lacy gets to the second level he will take the ball to the house.
"Offensive" Line?
Of course, there are a few issues with Rodgers, or rather the offense around him. The offensive line finally looked stable last season (Pro Football Focus ranked them as the fourth best in the NFL for 2014) with David Bakhtiari, Bryan Bulaga, Josh Sitton, T.J. Lang and Corey Linsley all healthy and playing well, but the depth behind the main line is still a question mark. Last season the team was healthy but it doesn’t tend to roll that way for long and if one of the above five go down, the offense is going to have some issues replacing them.
Again though, this is where Rodgers’ mobility and the strong run game come in.
New Sheriff In Town
Another potential concern is that head coach Mike McCarthy has stepped down as play-caller, replaced by Tom Clements. Any time you have a change in management, you run the risk of messing up the chemistry and production of an offense.
Luckily Clements has a long history with Rodgers. He was already the offensive coordinator for the Packers, so he is completely familiar with the overall scheme, and prior to his OC gig, he was the quarterbacks coach. In fact, he was the one who shepherded Rodgers through McCarthy’s quarterback schools (per ESPN) during the quarterback’s early seasons. Ultimately this shouldn’t be a huge issue, but any change like this is worth noting.
At the end of the day, even in an increasingly tough NFC North, Rodgers should continue to put up consistent numbers you can count on each week.
Positives
- Nelson and Cobb remain in the fold, and are healthy
- Rodgers got through last year in good health
- Continuing improvement of run game
Negatives
- The NFC North continues to get tougher
- Another new play caller in Tom Clements
- Offensive line continues to be a concern
Final thoughts
While there are some interesting fantasy quarterbacks emerging as well as the old favorites like Drew Brees and Tom Brady, no quarterback is as safe a bet to give you a ton of fantasy points with few negative hits for turnovers. At 31, Aaron Rodgers isn’t even close to done with his career, which makes him not only a top fantasy quarterback for redraft, but one for dynasty as well. Some quarterbacks might throw for a few more yards, some might edge him with a few touchdowns but nobody will put together the combination of both of those things with as few mistakes as Rodgers.
Garda's Projections
| Games Played | Passing Yards | TD | INT | Rushing Yards | Rushing TDs |
| 16 | 4600 | 39 | 7 | 220 | 3 |
Other viewpoints
Ty Dunne of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel says that along with Clements taking play-calling duties over, Rodgers should be getting more control of play-calling at the line as well.
Another Journal-Sentinel scribe, Tom Silverstein, relates McCarthy’s thought that Rodgers could run the offense out of the pistol formation more in 2015. That could be significant for owners as it might lead Rodgers to running more and gaining more ground yards.
