Eyes of the Guru IDP Info, Part 4: Denver Broncos

Photo: USA Today Sports

Denver had an above-average defense in 2022. They went in the wrong direction in 2023. After finishing in the top half of the league in virtually all important statistical categories the previous year, the Broncos struggled last season. On the positive side, they forced the second most fumbles and recovered more than anyone else. After that, it’s all downhill.

This unit was dead last in yards per carry and 30th in rushing yards allowed. They did manage a mediocre ranking in the rushing touchdown column but that was only because they allowed so many scores through the air, where they finished 28th. Add in the 25th rank in yards per pass attempt, 24th in passing yards, and finishing in the bottom half in interceptions, and you get a squad that must improve if the team is going anywhere.

Not surprisingly, there will be new starters at every level in 2024. There were no top-shelf free-agent additions and the draft reinforcements were no more than an edge defender in round three and a corner in round five. The organization was thrifty in free agency though, adding some good, reasonably priced, veterans. Time will tell if it will be enough.   

Defensive line

Denver’s pass rush tallied a respectable 42 sacks last year and they did it without any player landing more than eight and a half. There are no superstars along their defensive line this year either. What they do have is a solid and deep group of quality players who can all make contributions. They are relatively young across the front and there is even a little high upside potential.

The edge rotation should consist of Jonathan Cooper, Nik Bonitto, and Baron Browning, with some appearances by rookie Jonah Ellis. Between them, Cooper, Bonitto, and Browning accounted for 20 of the team’s sacks last season. Cooper led the way with eight and a half. He was also the leading tackler among Denver’s defensive linemen and led the team’s edge defenders in snaps by a wide margin.

On the field, Cooper is a good three-down edge who holds up pretty well versus the run and makes a lot of tackles. At 45-25-8.5 with 4 turnovers, 2 batted passes, and a score, Cooper quietly made his way into a lot of IDP lineups last year. The strong tackle totals helped him be rather consistent, posting at least nine points in twelve games while averaging almost twelve per. He was not very productive in his first two seasons so there is at least some concern that Cooper could be a one-year wonder. This one just doesn’t feel like that though. I like him as a dependable Edge2 or an excellent number three with upside. Cooper is not going to win a sack title but double-digits in that column would not be a surprise.

Baron Browning might have the highest ceiling of the group as a pass rusher. The problem is that he’s always banged up. Browning has missed 13 games over the last two seasons and played sparingly in several others due to nagging injuries. When healthy, he has shown signs of becoming an explosive pass rusher. The 2021 third-round pick started his career as an off-ball inside linebacker before shifting to the edge in his second season. He adapted quickly, recording nine sacks over the last two campaigns.

As an IDP prospect, Browning has good potential in terms of big play production but his value could be held in check by mediocre tackle totals. At 240 pounds, he is a flyweight in the run game and has trouble when opponents run right at him. Browning will hold the title of starter and if he can stay out of the trainer’s room, will consistently see around 70% of the snaps, so there is no lack of opportunity.

When Browning missed time last year, Nik Bonitto filled in admirably. So admirably in fact, that some might question his reduced role when Browning returned. Bonitto finished the season with eight sacks, just a half behind Cooper for the team lead. Considering he played over 300 fewer snaps, that’s an eyebrow-raiser.

Over a six-game stretch starting in week two, Bonitto started and saw roughly 65% of the action in each game. In those games, he totaled 20 combined stops with 5.5 sacks and a forced fumble. When everyone was available, his role was limited to between 35% and 45% of the action. In leagues with a lot of teams and/or big rosters, Bonitto might be worth a spot at the bottom. In most leagues, he is the guy to pick up if Browning misses time again.

There were a lot of factors contributing to the Broncos’ poor run defense. A pair of 240-pound edge defenders, mediocre linebacker play, and a less-than-stellar contribution from the front three were among them. It’s not that Denver's defensive tackles were bad, they just were not as good as they should have been.

In D.J. Jones the Broncos have a nose tackle who, at six foot and 305 pounds, is a bit undersized by today’s standards. Jones brings more quickness and athleticism to the party than the 320+ pound guys, but he gives up a little anchor strength in the trade-off. Jones rotates relatively evenly with Mike Purcell, who does not have an issue with being undersized at six three and 328 pounds. Both of these players are solid veteran contributors but they are not game changers. Jones might have a little value as depth in leagues starting two tackles but there is not much upside.

Denver’s outside tackle positions could give us a pair of IDP-relevant players. Zach Allen is a fairly safe call. He put up solid DT2 numbers in his last couple of seasons with the Cardinals and might have slipped into the top ten had he not missed four games in 2022. Allen followed defensive coordinator, Vance Joseph, over from Arizona last year and picked up right where he left off. At 60 combined tackles, 5 sacks, and a forced fumble, Allen put up the best numbers of his career and finished among the top 20. At 26 years old, his best football could be on the horizon. I see Allen as a priority DT2 with the potential to creep into the DT1 conversation.

The new kid in town is former Jets edge defender John Franklin-Myers. He is the proverbial tweener in a 4-3 scheme such as the Jets run but the definition of a 4-3 tweener, reads a lot like the description of what teams look for at the outside tackle positions in a 3-4. Thus, Franklin-Myers could be a great fit at tackle in Vance Joseph's scheme.

At 288 pounds, Franklin-Myers is on the large side for an edge guy. He lacks the twitchy burst of an explosive edge rusher but has a great motor and is tough against the run. His box score production was unimpressive with New York but that had a lot to do with how they run their rotation. Franklin-Myers saw a lot of early down action but barely more than half of the snaps overall. Allen played over 900 snaps for Denver last season so if Franklin-Myer lives up to expectations early, the Broncos will not hesitate to leave him on the field for 75% or more of the playing time.

Franklin-Myers has 19 career sacks with a personal best of 6 in 2021. His high mark in the tackle columns was 38 combined in 2022. There is a good chance he will set new career marks in both columns in 2024. Since no one is talking about him, I‘ve been able to pick him up cheaply as my third tackle in start two leagues.          

Malcolm Roach is the other player that should figure into the equation. He likely picks up the leftovers at the outside tackle positions but Roach is a 3-4 tweener and could see action at all three spots. At six three and 290 pounds, he is small for the nose tackle position, on the other hand, Roach is a virtual no-show when it comes to rushing the passer, with one career sack over four seasons.

Edge Barron Browning – Big sack potential but lite in the tackle columns
Edge Jonathan Cooper – Dependable Edge2 or excellent number three 
Edge Nik Bonito – Injury sleeper 
Edge Jonah Ellis – Light duty expected unless there is an injury
DT Zach Allen – Priority DT2 with low DT1 potential
DT John Franklin-Myers – Potential late-round bargain
DT D.J. Jones – Marginal value
DT Matt Henningsen – No impact expected
DT Malcolm Roach – Injury sleeper with a low floor and marginal ceiling