NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-rostered plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge is going to come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.
This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the Showdown decision-making process is more interesting, given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate's top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.
Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.
Game Theory
The entire NFL world saw Caleb Williams faceplant in his NFL debut. Williams managed a minuscule 2.1 net yards per throw against the Titans, sending sports blogs into a frenzy. But that could create big Showdown opportunity tonight.
Yes, Williams looked bad enough that we should worry about his early-season upside. (That's even more concerning in the Showdown format.) He looked uncomfortable in the pocket and a bit panicked out of it. And it didn’t help that his world-class arm missed on several makeable throws. As a result, the general public, which had been breathlessly awaiting that debut, will likely overreact to what they saw. Expect depressed rostership for Williams and his weapons, all of whom underwhelmed in the opener, and a chance to zag away from the hyper-common Texans-heavy builds.
Injury Roundup
The Bears are bitten badly at wideout, where both Keenan Allen (heel) and Rome Odunze (knee) are expected to be game-time decisions. Allen’s injury appears a bit less serious, but his checkered injury history always gives pause. As for Odunze, it may seem shortsighted of the Bears to push their prized rookie in Week 2, but this Week 2 game happens to be massive (if only emotionally).
Texans backup RB Dameon Pierce (hamstring) also looks iffy tonight. There’s a good chance Cam Akers suits up as Joe Mixon’s lightly-used backup in his place.
Captain Consideration
- C.J. Stroud
- Joe Mixon
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