Instead of being reactive with respect to injury news—especially those involving players in later games—you now must be proactive in your approach, which means projecting the value of players who may or may not be seeing a role change. The easiest way to transition to this line of thinking is to embrace the Butterfly Effect theory, which looks at how small causes can have big effects. With respect to the NBA (and fantasy sports in general) it is the chain reaction caused by one event, with specific focus on looking several layers deeper than what is most obvious. The most impactful injury is generally those that involve point guards because they have the ball in their hands at the highest rate, are responsible for running the offense and dictate what pace their team plays at. They are the quarterbacks of the NBA and it is their responsibility to generate offense for their teammates as well as themselves. Each time an injury to a point guard occurs, I have a list of questions that I research that is the essence of the Butterfly Effect.
What is the skillset of the injured point guard? Is he a pass-first point guard, and if so, does he rely on penetration to set up teammates?
How do opposing teams guard him on the perimeter and in pick and roll scenarios?
Does he push the ball in transition, or does he rely on half court sets?
What the skillset of his backup? How does his skillset matchup with the injured player?
What changes will the offense see, and who is most likely to be affected—both positively and negatively—from the change? Will one player be counted to pick up the slack, or will there be a committee approach?
These questions can be tailored to fit any position, but the point guard and center positions are those that affect teams the most because they are the two positions where everyone else is moving in reaction to what they do.
In addition to injuries, The Butterfly Effect can also be applied to coaching changes and trades. Anytime a significant event or change occurs, this article will be your guide to finding how value has shifted, both positively and negatively.
Injuries:
Los Angeles Clippers
Key Losses: Blake Griffin
Primary Beneficiaries: Marreese Speights, Chris Paul
Secondary Beneficiaries: Jamal Crawford
The loss of Blake Griffin is a big one for the 17-7 Clippers. After some heartbreaking playoff losses, and prior injuries to Blake Griffin, they have put all of the “potential” potential talks to rest and exceeded expectations during the first quarter of the season. The knee injury to Griffin has had ripple effects on the team though, as much of the offense has been laid at the feet of Chris Paul. Griffin is averaging 20 points, 9 rebounds, 4.6 assists and .6 blocks per game, but most importantly he is shouldering the scoring load so that Paul can do what he does best, facilitate. In the one game that Griffin missed on Saturday, Paul had 20 points, 20 assists, 5 rebounds and 3 steals. Even by Paul standards, those numbers would be hard for him to continue through a prolonged absence by Griffin. It is obvious that Paul’s fantasy value gets upgraded without Griffin, and with Griffin’s injury thought to be one that just needs rest from time to time, it is smart to have massive exposure to him whenever Griffin is not in the lineup. The other main beneficiary is Marreese Speights. In Griffin’s absence on Saturday, Speights posted 17 points, 12 rebounds and 4 assists, his best game of the year by far. Speights was able to accomplish those numbers in only 25 minutes, so even if Griffin were to play on Monday, Speights salary is soft enough to consider him as a punt play. If Griffin were not to play, I would move Speights up to my primary value play and have significant exposure. Jamal Crawford also gains value in Griffin’s absence, as his scoring prowess becomes something that the Clippers need much more when their leading scorer is not in the lineup. Crawford contributed 22 points and 2 assists on Saturday, his third 20+ point effort in his last three games. While it seems like DeAndre Jordan would also get a boost with Griffin out of the lineup, he is just not efficient enough on the offensive end, and the Clippers have other players capable of picking up the slack. JJ Reddick is one of those players, however he does not contribute enough in other categories to consider for a punt play. Stick to Paul, Speights and Crawford.
Dallas Mavericks
Key Losses: Dirk Nowitzki, Andrew Bogut, JJ Barea
Primary Beneficiaries: Wesley Matthews, Dwight Powell, Harrison Barnes
Secondary Beneficiaries: Deron Williams
The Mavericks have been without Nowitzki’s services for much of the year, which in year’s past has led to immediate value for Dwight Powell. This year however, with the acquisition of Andrew Bogut, it took an injury to Bogut before Powell started seeing a significant increase in his fantasy value. Powell’s playing time was sporadic through the first two months of the season, but it has stabilized with Bogut’s injury and he is now seeing 25+ minutes on most nights. Powell’s game has filled out nicely the last two seasons and he is now a much more assertive scorer when given the chance, and he is also making contributions in the assists category when he’s not able to get off his shot. He will most likely not put up a 40+ point fantasy effort due to Wesley Matthews and Harrison Barnes dominating the offense, but he is capable of returning 5x value on most nights, which is serviceable enough to be considered for cash games. The most interesting result of the Bogut injury has been the return of Matthews contributions as a score for the Mavericks. With Nowitzki out, Harrison Barnes has been tasked to shoulder the load of leading the Mavericks in scoring, but Matthews has proven over the last several weeks that he is capable of filling that role as well. Against the Rockets, Matthews scored 26 points to go along with 3 rebounds and 2 assists, and against the Pacers he also put up 26 points with 4 rebounds and 3 assists. With Nowitzki and Barea on the court, Matthews had a usage rate of 16%, however with Barea and Nowitzki not on the court, his usage rate swells to 24.9%, trailing only Barnes (29.2%) and Williams (26%). The rates are close enough that any one of the three could go off on any given night, and with Denver giving up the 30th most points to opposing shooting guards, Matthews makes for an excellent play in GPP's tonight. That brings us to Barnes, who was acquired from the Warriors in the offseason. Barnes was never asked to be an elite scorer for the talent rich Warriors, but on a Mavericks team that is lacking for talent on the wing, that is exactly what he has been asked to do. There have been mixed results, which is expected when a player changes teams and schemes, and more than that is asked to fill a role he hasn’t played since his college days at UNC. Barnes’ price across the industry has held steady, but if you are looking for a GPP play at a reasonable price with high upside, Barnes is a great candidate for your squad. He’s averaging 20.6 points per game, and has failed to score 17 points only once in his last 10 games. His upside is dependent on whether he contributes in peripheral categories, specifically rebounds, three pointers and steals, but he has reached 40+ fantasy points enough to consider him an elite play when the matchup is right. Denver plays at a fast pace which helps Barnes because he can be very effective in transition, so tonight is a night where I would have exposure to him in GPP’s. Deron Williams’ usage rate increases by around 5% when Barea and Nowitzki are not in the lineup, but his efficiency drops as well. He is someone I would consider based solely on the matchup, which tonight happens to be pretty good. Denver gives up the 17th most points to opposing point guards, and he should find some easy fantasy points based on Denver’s propensity for shooting a lot of three’s. His price is still somewhat soft given his floor, so he should be a consideration for both cash games and GPP’s, although is ceiling is lower than his counterparts at similar price points, namely Jeff Teague and Jeremy Lin.
