With that news that DraftKings had eliminated their late swap feature for the current NBA season, it became apparent that there needed to be a dramatic shift in lineup construction strategy. Instead of being reactive with respect to injury news—especially those involving players in later games—you now must be proactive in your approach, which means projecting the value of players who may or may not be seeing a role change. The easiest way to transition to this line of thinking is to embrace the Butterfly Effect theory, which looks at how small causes can have big effects. With respect to the NBA (and fantasy sports in general) it is the chain reaction caused by one event, with specific focus on looking several layers deeper than what is most obvious. The most impactful injury is generally those that involve point guards because they have the ball in their hands at the highest rate, are responsible for running the offense and dictate what pace their team plays at. They are the quarterbacks of the NBA and it is their responsibility to generate offense for their teammates as well as themselves. Each time an injury to a point guard occurs, I have a list of questions that I research that is the essence of the Butterfly Effect.
What is the skillset of the injured point guard? Is he a pass-first point guard, and if so, does he rely on penetration to set up teammates?
How do opposing teams guard him on the perimeter and in pick and roll scenarios?
Does he push the ball in transition, or does he rely on half court sets?
What the skillset of his backup? How does his skillset matchup with the injured player?
What changes will the offense see, and who is most likely to be affected—both positively and negatively—from the change? Will one player be counted to pick up the slack, or will there be a committee approach?
These questions can be tailored to fit any position, but the point guard and center positions are those that affect teams the most because they are the two positions where everyone else is moving in reaction to what they do.
In addition to injuries, The Butterfly Effect can also be applied to coaching changes and trades. Anytime a significant event or change occurs, this article will be your guide to finding how value has shifted, both positively and negatively.
Injuries:
Memphis Grizzlies
Key Losses: Mike Conley, Chandler Parsons, Zach Randolph (Personal), James Ennis, Vince Carter
Primary Beneficiaries: Andrew Harrison, JaMychal Green,Troy Williams
Secondary Beneficiaries: Wade Baldwin IV, Tony Allen
The Memphis Grizzlies have once again been decimated by injuries, but similar to last year, those injuries have created a massive source of value. Mike Conley’s back injury will keep him out anywhere from 6-8 weeks. Conley is the engine for the Grizzlies offense, and has the ball in his hands as much as any point guard this side of Russell Westbrook and James Harden. While on the floor with the starting five, Conley had a usage percentage of 26% and Marc Gasol had a usage percentage of 37.6%. Without Conley on the floor though, Gasol’s usage percentage drops to 26.1%. This would suggest that Gasol’s value might take a hit, but that has not been the case. In fact, Gasol has hit a 6x salary multiple in two of the three games he’s played without Conley. The main beneficiary of Conley’s injury is Andrew Harrison. He has inherited the starting point guard role and responded very well, averaging 12.6 points, 5.4 assists, 3.3 rebounds, 1.3 steals, .6 blocks and 1.6 three’s in three games a starter. While Harrison is a rookie, he was a four year player at Kentucky and has played in enough big games that suggest he is not shell shocked by the opportunity to lead the Grizzlies. He is a tough defender, a solid shooter with good three point range and can penetrate and finish at the rim or dish the ball off. He doesn’t have the savvy veteran moves, smooth midrange game or elite court vision that Conley possessed, but he understands how to lead a team and that goes a long way with the Grizzlies coaching staff. Harrison is battling his fellow rookie teammate, Wade Baldwin IV for the starting job, but at the moment it looks like Harrison will be the starter moving forward. Baldwin does have value as a reserve though, as he has excellent range on his jump shot and with James Ennis also injured, the Grizzlies need perimeter shooting at the two guard position. Tony Allen is a lock down defender and does all the little things that don’t show up on a stat sheet, but he is not a knock down shooter and that limits what the Grizzlies can do on offense. Baldwin is young and is still very much developing as an NBA player, but he has proven that he can fill up the stat sheet as he did last night against the Lakers, scoring seven points, with two rebounds, nine assists, three steals and a block in 20 minutes of action. Chandler Parsons, Vince Carter and James Ennis’s injuries have given Troy Williams an opportunity to see a lot of court time. Over the last three contests, Williams has averaged 32.6 minutes per game. He’s played fantastic defense, collecting nine steals during that span to go along with an average of 7 points, 2.6 rebounds and 1.6 assists. William’s biggest struggle has been his outside shooting, making only 2 of 13 attempts from three point land while shooting 29% from the field. His mechanics need work, and that was the biggest knock on him coming out of college. He is an incredible athlete who can attack the paint and finish at the rim, but he will need to be more efficient from the field before he can become a dependable fantasy asset. With Chandler Parsons and Zach Randolph on the bench, JaMychal Green has stepped up and provided consistent scoring and rebounding for the Grizzlies. Green could end being the biggest beneficiary of Conley’s injury. His usage percentage has not changed much, but the Grizzlies are using rotations that have given him more court time which has allowed him to average 34.1 DraftKings points over the last three games. His salary continues to rise, but don’t let that deter you. He has proven that he is capable of putting up 15+ points and 10+ rebound games, and he contributes in the blocks and steals categories as well. When Randolph is not available to play, Green gets a nice bump in minutes and is a great option for both cash games and GPP’s.
Chicago Bulls
Key Losses: Rajon Rondo
Primary Beneficiaries: Dwayne Wade, Jimmy Butler, Jerian Grant
Secondary Beneficiaries: Robin Lopez, Taj Gibson
Rajon Rondo is suspended for Monday’s game against Portland for “conduct detrimental to the team”. Jerian Grant was recalled from the D-League and will start against the Trailblazers. He gets a fantastic matchup, as the Blazers rank 27th in points allowed to opposing point guards. Grant had the opportunity to start two games earlier this season, averaging 12 points, 4 rebounds, 1.5 assists and 3.5 steals in 30 minutes of court time. Grant has excellent size (6’5, 205), and is an explosive athlete with incredible hops and a highlight reel to prove it. He has a solid midrange game, but where he excels is taking defenders off the dribble and finishing at the rim. As a senior in college at Notre Dame, Grant made 73.1% of his shots around the rim, which is an elite number for a point guard. His lack of assists as a starter is puzzling, because that was an area where he excelled in college. He fits in very well with the Bulls, because he can play the point guard position or he can play off the ball as a two guard or even small forward in a pinch. Grant’s salary is very close to the minimum across the industry, and his ability to fill up the stat sheet makes him a great option for tonight’s slate. Interestingly enough, Grant’s first start was against Portland--the same team Chicago plays tonight-- and he played excellent, scoring 18 points to go along with two assists, three rebounds and five steals, good for 35.75 fantasy points. Grant is the obvious value play tonight, but the Butterfly Effect will make Dwayne Wade and Jimmy Butler the main beneficiaries of Rondo's suspension. They benefit from Rondo’s absence because both are capable of handling the ball in half court sets while playing the point and having the offense run through them. Of the two, Butler is the most likely to see a large uptick in his production. With Rondo off the court, Butler’s usage percentage rises from 27% to 30.9%, and he averages .25 more fantasy points per minute without Rondo in the game. Rondo is only out for one game, but we have seen this show before. He has a habit of getting on all of his coach’s bad side, and his suspension for tonight’s game could be the start of another long saga where we see Rondo arguing with his coaches. When Grant has started, Robin Lopez has seen his usage rate increase from 20% to 23.6%. The last time Chicago played Portland, Butler scored 49.5 points in 34 minutes, Wade scored 38.3 points in 31 minutes, Lopez scored 31.8 fantasy points in 29 minutes and Taj Gibson scored 30.3 points in 30 minutes of action. Tonight is a great time to stack the Bulls starters, as the Portland vs Chicago has a projected game total of 215 points, and Grant, Wade, Butler, Gibson and Lopez all surpassed GPP value the last time the two teams played.
Los Angeles Lakers
Key Losses: D’Angelo Russell, Jose Calderon
Primary Beneficiaries: Jordan Clarkson, Lou Williams
Secondary Beneficiaries: Brandon Ingram, Julius Randle, Marcelo Huertas
D’Angelo Russell last played on November 20th, and in his absence, Jose Calderon has picked up the starting gig while Jordan Clarkson remains with the second unit. Clarkson has averaged just over 30 minutes per game while Russell has been on the sidelines, and despite Calderon starting, he has been the one running the offense for the majority of games. Now with Calderon injured, there is a ripple effect that will force Clarkson into the starting role, and most likely increase his minutes to around the 35 minute mark. With Clarkson moving over to the point full time, Lou Williams should see an uptick in minutes which directly correlates to him scoring more fantasy points. Williams has been a big part of the Lakers being competitive this year, and you have to look no further than his performance last night against the Grizzlies to prove it. Williams scored 40 points (49 fantasy points) in only 32 minutes of action, and is now averaging 17.5 points while playing 24.2 minutes per game. With Clarkson handling the point guard duties, Brandon Ingram will lock down the small forward position and should continue to see heavy minutes (35 minutes per game over his last seven games). Ingram’s price has remained steady across the industry, and while he hasn’t had that one breakout game yet, there are signs pointing to it happening soon. He is becoming more assertive as a scorer and is now spending more time on the block battling for rebounds, which also has the added benefit of him playing defense in the passing lanes where he can use his length for steals and blocked shots. Marcelo Huertas would be a consideration if he were starting, as he is averaging nearly one fantasy point per minute this year in limited action. With Clarkson and Williams locking down the ball handling duties, Huertas could see 15-18 minutes off the bench, but there is not much upside to make him a cash game or GPP consideration. The most interesting aspect of the Butterfly Effect for the Lakers is Julius Randle. He is a power forward who dreams of being a point guard. He has an excellent handle, and reminds of a young Anthony Mason at times, so the Lakers could use him in an expanded role with two of their points guards on the shelf. Randle has the ability to play on the perimeter and work on the ball in pick and roll sets, but the Lakers have been reluctant to use him in those situations because they lack the other personnel inside to make up for Randle not battling down low. Randle is still working himself back into shape after being injured and missing three games, and he will have his work cut out for him going against a stingy Utah Jazz defense. For tonight’s game, Clarkson and Williams are near must plays due to the fact that they will make up a large part of the offensive volume for the Lakers. Ingram and Randle should both see an increase in their volume of shots tonight, but the downside is that the Lakers play the Jazz, who play excellent interior defense and have a slower pace of play than the Lakers. The projected game total for their matchup is 197, which is the second lowest on a slate that is chock full of high over/unders.
