Saturday Football - We have a two game slate on both Saturday and Monday this week, but I want to focus only on the Saturday slate with Ind/Bal and Min/GB. How do you typically attack 2-game slates? Give me your top 2 non quarterback plays from this Saturday slate?
Phil Alexander: With the entire field's player pool shrunken down, ownership and unique roster construction are nearly the only things that matter on a two-game slate. I usually like to start my builds by choosing the lowest-owned of the four quarterbacks (and by extension the lowest-owned stack). There is usually a much larger gap in ownership between the QB1 and QB4 than the top options at any other position, which isn't always justified given how many more opportunities quarterbacks get to score fantasy points than running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends.
Unfortunately, this plan isn't one-size fits all for every slate. Saturday's lowest-owned quarterback will be Jacoby Brissett, with Indianapolis traveling to Baltimore as two-touchdown underdogs. Playing Brissett -- or any Colts player outside of Jack Doyle -- seems much closer to poor decision making than contrarian game theory. With Aaron Rodgers shut down for the season, Case Keenum and Joe Flacco become options 1 and 1A at quarterback.
Of the two, I'd choose Flacco. He's exceeded a 3x multiple of his current salary (DraftKings) in each of the Ravens last three games and if you needed any further proof the Colts pass defense is abysmal, look no further than Brock Osweiler completing over 70% of his passes last Thursday night. With Jeremy Maclin (knee) expected to scratch this week, Mike Wallace is the obvious stacking partner for Flacco. He had 10 targets in last week's win over the Browns and his deep ball skills play well vs. Indianapolis. The Colts have allowed more pass plays of 20+ yards than any team in football.
Maclin's absence also opens the opportunity to super-stack Flacco and Wallace with an off-the-grid Baltimore pass catcher. Chris Moore was a short slate superstar in Week 14 against the Steelers (3-48-1) before leaving with a hip injury. He was second on the team behind Wallace last week in both snaps and routes run, making him the preferred dart throw over slot man Michael Campanaro.
Justin Howe: I seek to concentrate my lineup overwhelmingly on one of the two games; i.e., ideally, that's every lineup spot but one. I'd much rather diagnose one game script/usage set than two, so by focusing almost entirely on one game, I stand in great position to cash in if it goes the way I'd expected and likely won't have to sweat the other game.
In a broad DFS sense, I'm more interested in chasing quality than ownership, but on such a small slate I understand my team isn't winning anything of note with all 40%-owned players. So, I'm more likely to target the less Vegas-sexy game as a contrarian play. If we all flock to Patriots or Saints on a small slate, none of us are going to profit much; the real +EV comes from playing against the public. Generally, though, I don't do that when there's huge divergence between the two. If I'm choosing between two games, one that's projected to 51 points and -3 and another that's 43 and -9.5, I'm taking the sexier one and diversifying from within it. Such a wide gap of expectations is not to be ignored; there's simply not a lot of appeal to that 43-point matchup, DFS game theory notwithstanding.
Mike Wallace and Stefon Diggs are my favorite GPP plays from the slate. Wallace has averaged a hair below 100 yards over the past 3 weeks; Joe Flacco is healthy and throwing with wild volume again, and Wallace is his clear partner in crime. Diggs is a contrarian play on the more productive (and worlds more popular) Adam Thielen, who will likely be so highly-owned he won't win you much cash in a vacuum. I'll be stacking them together and tentatively expecting Diggs to produce well. The Packers' biggest cornerback mismatches are on the outside, where Diggs will operate and can bring home tournament value with just a big downfield catch or two.
John Mamula: My colleagues nailed many key points to attacking short slates. Cash games are off limits for me with every two game slate. I concentrate on GPP tournaments and focus on the single entry and three-max options as large field multi-entry GPPs are extremely difficult to navigate. I don't mind rostering some chalk players if there isn't a viable alternative that can outperform them. I prefer to differentiate my GPP lineups in only 1-3 positions.
For Saturday, my top two non-quarterback plays are Alex Collins and Adam Thielen. Both the Ravens and Vikings are still battling for the playoffs while the Colts and Packers are playing out the remainder of the season.
Collins has at least 17 touches in six of his past seven games. Prior to last week, Collins had been a touchdown machine with five touchdowns in his last four games. That amount of workload will produce a solid performance against the Colts fourth-worst rush defense.
Thielen has been perhaps the biggest surprise of the 2017 season. He has emerged as a legitimate high-end WR1 with 130 targets thus far and 83 receptions, 1192 yards, and four touchdowns. Not many would have predicted that Thielen would have been in-line for a 100+ reception this season. The Packers pass defense has struggled most recently surrendering four touchdowns to Cam Newton. When Thielen last played the Packers back in Week 6, he finished with nine receptions for 97 yards.
James Brimacombe: Short slates are some of my favorites as I have had more success at putting together the perfect lineup in the past. It is a lot less to have to predict so you can play the chalky players or not play them depending on how you want to break down the games. You can always find at least one good punt play that will be low owned and if they have a decent game, chances are you are going to have a nice cash.
This week's Saturday games are not the most attractive games to choose from so I will most likely be looking to take a stance on a player or two to try to differenciate my lineup. At running back I am going back to Jamaal Williams after his 10 rushes for 30 rushing yards game last week. With Aaron Rodgers back on IR, it will be Hundley under center once again and Williams has seemed to have success in that scenario. Williams will be a popular play at the position but because of last week's performance and with the tough matchup against the Vikings I am hoping his ownership is somewhat discounted. At wide receiver I like T.Y. Hilton this week as a player that I am counting on to see big targets and to make big plays. The matchup is a tough one for Hilton as well but the way I see it is that the Colts are going to need some big splash plays in this game to even keep up with the Ravens and Hilton is pretty much the only player that can offer those plays. He has plenty of games where he only has a few catches for minimal yards but he also has 3 games on the year where he went for 7/153/1, 7/177/0, and 5/175/2.
_(1000_x_500_px)_png)