You can count on back up running backs making a difference in fantasy leagues this year, because they do every year. Sometimes backs that aren't even on a roster on week 1 will have fantasy value during the crucial fantasy playoff weeks. While it's hard to predict those names in advance, we can objectively look at the back up running back situations to assess the fantasy upside, likelihood of starter injury, and clarity on pecking order to get an idea of how likely each backfield is of producing a fantasy difference-maker. Below, the 32 backfields are ranked based on a combination of those factors to help with mid and late-round draft preparation.
While this exercise should not cause you to override your feelings about back ups to target, it should bring a few potential "perfect storm" situations and other useful fantasy takeaways to your attention:
- Atlanta - The Falcons regard Jacquizz Rodgers as a three-down back, Steven Jackson tends to get nicked up (not to mention he's 30), and the offense will create a lot of production for anyone who is back there.
- Detroit - The Lions will use their running back heavily as a receiver out of the backfield, Joique Bell is a quality all-around player, and Reggie Bush hasn't been the most durable over the years.
In addition, the Jets rate high because of high injury risk, low cost, and a clear target in drafts (Bilal Powell). Ben Tate could make your draft, but he could also be a frustrating "pick the wrong week" flex option all year if Arian Foster stays healthy. Fred Jackson is a lottery ticket with a similar cost and odds in Buffalo. Seattle and Washington are plug and play backfields, so taking the most talented backup (Christine Michael and Roy Helu) in the 15th round or later isn't a bad gamble. Chicago stands out as a situation with a reasonable draft cost solid offense, talented backup, and starter who has missed time in recent years. Oakland and Dallas are two of the most likely backup situations to yield a spot start or three, but are also hard to decipher right now. Philadelphia has high value, but Chris Polk is closing on Bryce Brown. New England and San Francisco are plug and play backfields that may lack RB1 upside from a temporary starter, but those backups also come dirt cheap.
Hope this chart helps you organize your running back end game:
| Rk | Team | Ceiling (PPR) | #1 Inj Risk | Clarity? | Cost | Notes |
| 1 | ATL | low RB1 | Yellow | yes | 10th-12th | Rodgers could be 3 down back if Sjax out |
| 2 | DET | low RB1 | Yellow | yes | 12th-15th | Bell might lose goal line carries; but would be PPR stud |
| 3 | NYJ | mid RB2 | Red | yes | 15th+ | Powell\'s ADP will be trending up |
| 4 | HOU | mid RB1 | Yellow | yes | 8th-9th | Foster is worrisome; but Tate pricy |
| 5 | BUF | mid RB1 | Green-Yellow | yes | 8th-9th | Spiller injury worries seem overblown |
| 6 | SEA | low RB1 | Green | no | 12th-15th | Michael probably best bet bc of talent |
| 7 | WAS | low RB1 | Green | yes | 15th+ | Helu will be backup if healthy |
| 8 | CHI | mid RB2 | Yellow | yes | 12th-15th | Bush was hurt last year; potential flex value when healthy |
| 9 | BAL | low RB1 | Green | yes | 9th-10th | Rice seems ultradurable |
| 10 | OAK | low RB2 | Red | no | 15th+ | Murray hurt. If Reece was backup; low RB1 ceiling in PPR |
| 11 | DAL | low RB2 | Yellow-Red | no | 15th+ | Dunbar is the bet right now; but RBBC likely if (when) Murray hurt |
| 12 | PHI | low RB1 | Green | no | 8th-10th | Polk having a great summer; could be a lot of carries to go around |
| 13 | IND | mid RB2 | Yellow | yes | 10th-12th | Bradshaw plays thru injuries |
| 14 | NE | mid RB2 | Green | no | 15th+ | Ridley could lose job to fumbles |
| 15 | SF | mid RB2 | Green-Yellow | yes | 12th-15th | LaMichael James will have role regardless of starter |
| 16 | DEN | high RB2 | Green | no | 9th-12th | Moreno looms; RBBC likely even if Ball or Hillman get hurt |
| 17 | CAR | mid RB2 | Green-Yellow | yes | 10th-12th | Stewart interesting gamble; but Tolbert may end up being handcuff |
| 18 | NYG | high RB2 | Green-Yellow | yes | 8th-10th | Brown much bigger injury risk than Wilson |
| 19 | MIA | mid RB2 | Yellow | yes | 15th+ | Thomas huge disappointment; but Miller durability a question |
| 20 | GB | mid RB2 | Yellow | no | 10th-12th | Really hard to say how this will turn out |
| 21 | ARI | low RB2 | Yellow-Red | no | 12th-15th | Williams knee acting up; Taylor getting 1st team reps |
| 22 | SD | low RB2 | Yellow | no | 9th-10th | Doubt Woodhead\'s role grows much if Mathews out |
| 23 | CIN | mid RB2 | Green-Yellow | yes | 8th-9th | BJGE limited ceiling even if Bernard out; but Bernard low RB1 if BJGE out |
| 24 | TEN | low RB2 | Green | yes | 12th-15th | Hard to get excited about Greene in any scenario |
| 25 | MIN | mid RB2 | Green | yes | 15th+ | Wouldn't be waiting around for Peterson injury |
| 26 | KC | mid RB2 | Green | yes | 15th+ | Not a Davis fan; but KC appears to be + decent camp to date |
| 27 | PIT | mid RB2 | Green | no | 15th+ | Bell very durable |
| 28 | JAX | low RB2 | Green-Yellow | yes | 15th+ | MJD looking good; Forsett hurting |
| 29 | CLE | low RB2 | Green-Yellow | no | 15th+ | Lewis seems to be in lead; but likely RBBC if Richardson out |
| 30 | NO | low RB2 | Green | no | 8th-10th | Saints show no inclination to have a true feature back even with injuries |
| 31 | STL | low RB2 | Green | no | 10th-15th | Hard to see a featured back here in any scenario |
| 32 | TB | low RB2 | Green | no | 15th+ | Clear as mud |
