There is an old Indian proverb about a young male warrior who came off of the mountain after seeking a vision, and after 4 days without food or water, he came down and was asked what he learned. He said the following; do your best to get value when you are drafting your fantasy team. This warrior was a very smart man, even if I’ve clearly made him up.
You’re probably wondering if I’ve been hitting the peace pipe a little too much, but I say no, hear me out. In almost every case, the best way to approach every round of your draft is to secure players that will be more valuable than where you’ve drafted them. If you can get a player that will perform as a No. 3 wide receiver on your team without having to pay the price of that position, you’re saving draft capital to load up elsewhere.
This article is essentially a coupon for you to turn in at your draft. You are going to want to turn in a couple of these on draft night. The following are players that should outperform their ADP, some of them easily.
Tom Brady - QB - New England Patriots
Brady is currently coming off the board as the No. 11 quarterback selected, at pick 88 overall. Brady will serve a four-game suspension to start the season and it certainly mitigates his season long value.
I see Brady as a very nice value because he’s going to play to an extremely high level from weeks five through the rest of this fantasy season. In 2014, Brady threw 29 touchdown passes in the last 12 games of the regular season. Those are exactly the kind of numbers you can expect from Brady once he returns from the suspension, and those are top-five fantasy quarterback numbers. There were only three quarterbacks that threw for more touchdowns than Brady’s 2.42 per game. They were Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers, Denver quarterback Peyton Manning and Indianapolis quarterback Andrew Luck.
We’re talking about a quarterback that will come back with a monumental chip on his shoulder, a quarterback that has the ability to play at an extremely high level and as a fantasy play; he could win your league for you.
The key is to get through those first four weeks with a clear plan. That plan should include looking at the schedules of quarterbacks to find a player like Eli Manning. Manning has a fantastic slate of matchups to start his season and playing a player like Manning for four weeks and then handing the reigns to Brady could get you very high end quarterback production. Again, you’ll get that top-five quarterback production by using an eighth-round pick on Brady and a 10th round pick on Manning. That’s great value, and a move that could help you win your league.
Ryan Tannehill - QB - Miami Dolphins
Tannehill is currently coming off the board as the No. 12 quarterback selected, at pick 92 overall.
Tannehill is an ascending player. He is coming off of three seasons in a row where he improved his completion percentage, passing yardage and touchdown totals. He is emerging as one of the better young quarterbacks in the game, and this could be the season where he becomes very fantasy relevant.
The Miami Dolphins have been very aggressive in trying to bring in weapons for Tannehill and the passing game. They brought in tight end Jordan Cameron and wide receiver Greg Jennings in free agency, traded for speedster Kenny Stills and drafted DeVante Parker out of Louisville in the first round. Second-year receiver Jarvis Landry is still here, as is running back Lamar Miller. This team has loaded up in the passing game and has a nice running game to help Tannehill. While there will be a learning curve for all of these players, the only way to see this is as a significant upgrade for Tannehill.
Tannehill should easily finish the 2015 season as a top-10 fantasy quarterback with the upside to creep a touch higher.
Duke Johnson Jr - RB - Cleveland Browns
Johnson is currently coming off the board as the No. 42 running back selected, at pick 108 overall.
Johnson enters a fairly muddy situation with a reasonable amount of competition in the Browns backfield. Second-year backs Isaiah Crowell and Terrance West are here, but at the end of the day when the water finds its level, it will be Johnson who wins this job. From a fantasy perspective, certainly in PPR formats, Johnson is going to be better than the price you will have to pay for him.
The thing about Johnson is that he is a skilled inside runner, even for a smaller back. At Miami, he consistently showed the ability to get skinny to find little creases that his offensive linemen gave him. He is not the type to dance around, but that doesn’t mean he isn’t a patient runner. The Cleveland offensive line is a very good unit, and they’ve added an all-around type in Florida State’s Cameron Erving. This line should do very nice things for Johnson.
Johnson also showed the ability to be a weapon out of the backfield as a receiver, running crisp routes and catching the ball naturally. There isn’t a scenario in which the Browns should take him off of the field. I expect Johnson to surprise quite a few people with his ability to run between the tackles, and he is going to excel on third downs as a check down/safety valve type.
My feeling is that the Browns backfield starts as a timeshare and as the season wears on, Johnson will emerge as the playmaking weapon. This makes him much more valuable than a No. 4 running back. I expect him to be a consistently nice flex play with the upside to be a RB2 at times.
Roy Helu - RB - Oakland Raiders
Helu is currently coming off the board as the No. 62 running back selected, at pick 194 overall.
Helu is clearly a player to consider late in the draft, but he has always done a nice job when he’s had the opportunity, especially as a third-down back. In Washington, he had significant hurdles to clear to get onto the field, but even in a very limited role he was highly productive on third downs.
In 2013, Helu caught 31 passes for 251 yards, but he only ran the ball 62 times and averaged 4.4 yards per carry, scoring four touchdowns on the ground. In 2014, he caught 42 balls, registering 477 yards and two touchdowns. On the ground, he had 40 carries but put up a very healthy 5.4 yards per carry to go along with one score.
Helu’s obstacles to get onto the field are much smaller in Oakland, and in this Raiders offense, he should put up very nice numbers as a third-down back. If current starter Latavius Murray were to miss time, Helu would easily be a starting caliber running back as he is capable as a runner, but his volume as a pass catching back separates him from other backs in and around where he is being selected. He is an intriguing option deep in the draft because of his ability to be a good flex play if things clear up in front of him.
Torrey Smith - WR - San Francisco 49ers
Smith is currently coming off the board as the No. 37 wide receiver selected, at pick 96 overall.
The San Francisco 49ers have unsuccessfully tried to find a legitimate deep threat for several years, but this year in free agency they paid for one of the league’s best vertical weapons. By bringing in Smith, the 49ers have given quarterback Colin Kaepernick a player that will open up the offense and make big plays. There is a question about whether Kaepernick and Smith can get their timing down, but to me, the things they do well mesh very nicely together.
Kaepernick can extend plays with his feet, and Smith is a vertical player who should excel with the extra time his quarterback will give him. Smith can flat out fly, and he has the ability to run under passes that the strong armed quarterback will throw. Smith is also a very different player than current 49ers receiver Anquan Boldin, they’re almost Jekyll and Hyde, and he will give the 49ers something they have been missing.
Last year with the Ravens, Smith caught 11 touchdowns but only caught 49 passes and totaled 767 yards. That speaks to his big-play ability, but also to the volatility he brought to rosters last year. New players in new cities come with risk, and Smith isn’t without risk as a player already, but I see him catching more passes for more yards with the 49ers. He may not score as many touchdowns in 2015, but he’ll be a more consistent player across the board.
Last season he finished as a mid-level No. 2 wide receiver, but this year he is being drafted barely outside of starter range. I think he will be a productive starter for fantasy teams and I see him being a value on draft day.
Kendall Wright - WR - Tennessee Titans
Wright is currently coming off the board as the No. 51 wide receiver selected, at pick 133 overall.
The Titans have retooled their offense after a dismal 2014 season, starting with quarterback and first-round draft pick Marcus Mariota. They also added wide receivers Dorial Green-Beckham and Tre McBride in the draft and running backs David Cobb and Jalston Fowler. It is clear that the Titans saw their offense as very limited and they’ve addressed the shortcomings.
With Mariota under center, the Titans have a playmaker, a dangerous weapon as a thrower and as a runner. Mariota is going to extend plays because of his ability to move, and defenses are going to have a hard time dealing with all of the weapons here. Green-Beckham is a massive wide receiver, but he also can move really move and as plays get extended, defenses are going to have to adjust. He is going to draw multiple bodies as plays break down simply because of his size and speed, but this means good things for Wright.
The Titans now have other weapons to allow Wright to stay singled up in coverage. Tight end Delanie Walker, running backs Bishop Sankey, Cobb and Fowler and free agent slot receiver Harry Douglas are all players that defenses will have to deal with, and that means good things for Wright. Wright is a highly skilled route runner, capable of beating coverage off the line of scrimmage quickly. Mariota’s ability to get the ball out quickly and accurately will be a key component for Wright.
There are other factors at play, all which point to Wright getting back to his 94 receptions in his second year. The Titans didn’t have very good quarterback play last year with a combination of Jake Locker, Zach Mettenberger and Charlie Whitehurst. Wright’s game suffered and he finished the season with 57 catches, but he is in store for a very nice bounce back type of year.
Currently he is being drafted as a No. 4 wide receiver, but as a No. 1 receiver in this offense with many options, he will easily outperform his ADP to be a very nice value in 2015.
Kyle Rudolph - TE - Minnesota Vikings
Rudolph is currently coming off the board as the No. 14 tight end selected, at pick 138 overall.
Rudolph came into the NFL out of Notre Dame and was highly regarded as a pass catcher. He had a phenomenal second season, catching 53 passes, registering 493 yards and scoring nine touchdowns. He has been banged up the past two seasons, playing eight games in 2013 and nine games last year. The injuries have derailed his career, and his success has been almost forgotten.
The Vikings offense took nice strides with rookie quarterback Teddy Bridgewater manning the ship (see what I did there?), considering it was without star running back Adrian Peterson. Clearly, Peterson is the engine that makes this offense go, but without him last year they found ways to move the ball efficiently. It’s still very early for Bridgewater to say they’ve found their quarterback of the future, but he had a very nice rookie season.
The Vikings also found a big-play receiver in Charles Johnson, and they made a move in the offseason for speedster Mike Wallace. There are weapons on the outside here, and their star returns to the backfield, but the piece that’s missing is Rudolph. Rudolph is in a great situation as he can be a chain-mover and a red-zone target for Bridgewater, a very quick and accurate thrower.
The risk with Rudolph is that he has been injury prone and it is the only thing standing between him and the kind of season that can be a boon to your fantasy roster. He is being drafted as a backup, but he has the skill set and the situation to be a clear No. 1 tight end in 2015.
Owen Daniels - TE - Denver Broncos
Daniels is currently coming off the board as the No. 15 tight end selected, at pick 141 overall.
Former Denver tight end Julius Thomas was a very productive tight end during his time with the Broncos, but he left in free agency for Jacksonville and the Broncos will fill the tight end position with Virgil Green, Daniels and Casey James.
The Broncos lost offensive coordinator Adan Gase to the Chicago Bears and replaced him with Gary Kubiak. Kubiak brings in a specific offense and he and Daniels have been together in Houston and Baltimore, and familiarity is a very important element here. I see Green as more the blocking tight end and Daniels as the receiving tight end and as a pass catcher in this offense, there is a lot of production to be had. Quarterback Peyton Manning has always used his tight ends, as has Kubiak.
Daniels comes into a situation with many talented pass catchers. Receivers Demaryius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders and Cody Latimer, and running backs C.J. Anderson and Montee Ball are a formidable unit, and Daniels walks into a great situation.
Daniels is currently being drafted as a backup, but he clearly has the ability, scheme and is in an offense to play like a No. 1 tight end.
