Bink Inc. Week 6
Here at Bink Inc, my aim is to break down the DraftKings player pool and give you the skinny on the various GPP options at your disposal. I will be going through all positions and all pricing tiers, as well as dropping GPP lineup construction knowledge. Due to DraftKings new regulations regarding selling lineups, we can’t actually give you pre-built lineups. With that said, each week the Bink Inc. article will provide you with all of the information you need, so that you can craft lineups from our suggestions. In many ways this is better for our readers, as you will become familiar with the different strategies for GPP lineup construction and be able to identify how value shifts from position to position depending on the pricing each week.
Quarterbacks:
Russell Wilson ($6,900)
Falcons @ Seahawks
Projected Team Total: 25.75 points
Footballguys IVC Projection: 19.3 points (2.7x salary multiple)
Wilson is coming off a bye week, something he desperately needed to rest his injured knee. Wilson has spoken about the rigorous rehab process he is going through, which includes constant icing to the point where he was only sleeping three to four hours per night. That is dedication. Wilson had a very rough start to the season, fantasy wise, scoring 13.92, 11.56 and 14.02 DraftKings points in weeks one through three, and that was against Miami, LA and San Francisco, not exactly a murderer’s row of fantasy defenses. He took advantage of a weak NY Jets pass defense in week four though, scoring 26.86 points on 23 of 32 passing, for 309 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions. This week he gets another advantageous matchup against an Atlanta secondary that is ranked 26th overall, allowing 290.2 passing yards per game. In four of their five games this season, the Atlanta defense has allowed opposing quarterbacks to exceed 30 fantasy points, with Paxton Lynch being the lone player failing to do so. Jameis Winston, Derek Carr, Drew Brees, and Cam Newton/Derek Anderson all threw at least three touchdown passes against Atlanta, and they averaged a 69.7 completion percentage. Wilson also benefits from a healthy Jimmy Graham, who has shown glimpses of his former dominant self, averaging six catches for 106.5 yards per game over his last two games. In each of those games, Graham went over 100 yards receiving and also scored a touchdown in week three. While the Seattle vs Atlanta matchup only has a projected total of 45.5 points, Seattle has the fifth highest implied team total at 25.75 points. Wilson finds himself in a dream matchup, coming off a bye week where not only will he have the benefit of an extra week’s rest, he will also have had that extra week to prepare against Atlanta. Wilson has exceeded 250 yards passing in every game this season, but he has been lacking in the touchdown department, totaling only five touchdowns to one interception. Considering Wilson threw for 21 touchdowns in his last six games of 2015, there is no doubt that he is capable of going on a run where he puts up touchdown passes in bunches. There are few quarterbacks that have the upside of Wilson this week, and while I don’t expect his ownership to be below 7%, it is highly unlikely his ownership exceeds 15% with other quarterbacks in good matchups on the slate. Get in on Wilson at $6,900 in your GPP lineups while you can, as after this week there is a very real chance his salary rises above $7300.
Blake Bortles ($6,300)
Jaguars @ Bears
Projected Team Total: 22.5 points
Footballguys IVC Projection: 19.2 points (3x salary multiple)
The pricing at quarterback on DraftKings has been puzzling to say the least this year. Each week, even in good matchups, it seems there are several quarterbacks whose price drops despite putting up big games the week before. Blake Bortles doesn’t fall into that class, as he’s coming off a bye week, but he is also coming off his best game of the season in week 4, where he threw for 207 yards and two touchdowns and ran for 36 yards and a touchdown. He finished with 25.88 fantasy points against the Colts, and it marked the third consecutive game that Bortles has thrown for multiple touchdowns. He is averaging 21 fantasy points per game, an average that is remarkably close to Mathew Stafford (21.2), Aaron Rodgers (21.8), Philip Rivers (21.8) and Cam Newton (22.2). As we say in golf, there are no pictures on the scorecards and that is true with respect to fantasy production as well. While we want to know how a player came by his points, in the end all that matters is his production, not whether their team won or lost or how many interceptions they threw or almost threw. This is essentially how I feel about Bortles. He is going to make mistakes, but that is also due to the fact that he tends to throw more deep balls than the average quarterback, which makes sense when you have an elite deep threat in Allen Robinson. This week Bortles and the Jaguars travel to the Windy City to take on a Chicago defense that is ranked twelfth overall in passing yards allowed (227.6 passing yards). While that number looks like a tough matchup on paper, the Bears have proven to be generous against mobile quarterbacks. Andrew Luck (25.18 fantasy points) and Dak Prescott (23.52 fantasy points) finished with 3.4x and 4.1x salary multiples, respectively. The Jaguars vs Bears matchup has the third highest projected total of the week at 47 points, with the Jaguars having an implied team total of 22.5 points. The Jaguars had a bye in week 4, so they’ve had an extra week to prepare for a Chicago team that is coming off a grueling loss to the Colts, 29-23, that went deep into the four quarter. The Bears are very likely in for a let-down game, and the Jaguars are in the perfect spot to take advantage of it. Bortles ownership should be very low this week, and he is projected to return a 3x salary multiple. He is one of my favorite GPP plays this week, and his low salary allows you quite a bit of flexibility to spend up at either running back or wide receiver, and perhaps even both.
Matthew Stafford ($6,200)
Rams @ Lions
Projected Team Total: 23.25 points
Footballguys IVC Projection: 18 points (2.9x salary multiple)
Stafford falls into the category of the quarterbacks I described above, as his salary fell by $300 from last week to this week. While Stafford did not set the world on fire last week, he did complete 19 of 25 passes for 180 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions. His reduction in salary makes sense from a far, as he’s averaged 196.5 passing yards in his last two games after averaging 328 passing yards in first three games. That coupled with the fact that LA has the 14th best passing defense, averaging 242.4 passing yards allowed, makes it look as though Stafford is in for a matchup on Sunday. On closer inspection though the Rams are a different team on the road, averaging 287 passing yards allowed. The Rams have held opposing quarterbacks to 13.66 DraftKings points at home, but are letting up 18.1 points on the road. With the exception of his performance against the Bears (10.22 fantasy points), Stafford has been consistent so far this season, and has shown impressive upside, scoring 29.1 points against the Colts in week 1, and 30.5 points against the Packers in week 3. He’s thrown for three touchdowns in three of his five games, and put up at least 340 yards passing in two of his five games. The Rams vs Lions matchup has the lowest projected total of the week at 43.5 points, however the Lions have a healthy implied team total of 23.25 points, and have the added benefit of playing at home. Much of Stafford’s appeal comes from the fact that he is underpriced given his ceiling, and with the Lions being severely understaffed at running back, he will be tasked with throwing the ball quite often. Stafford is averaging 36.2 attempts per game, and is tied for third in completion percentage and tied for fifth in total passing touchdowns. There are certainly other options to consider at quarterback this week, but few players offer the combination of a high upside and a low ownership percentage. Look past what appears to be a tough matchup on paper, Stafford is a great GPP option this week.
Marcus Mariota ($6,000)
Browns @ Titans
Projected Team Total: 25.25 points
Footballguys IVC Projection: 18 points (3x salary multiple)
Mariota has been far from consistent through the first five games this season. He started off the season well, putting up 18.74 points against an elite Minnesota defense in week 1, and 17.62 points against Detroit in week 2. The trouble started in week 3 though, as he failed to take advantage of a matchup against an Oakland defense (7.76 points) that has averaged 30.4 fantasy points to all other opposing quarterbacks. Mariota followed that up with another clunker against Houston, scoring only 9.08 points and he failed to get in the end zone for the second straight game. In week 5 against Miami, Mariota redeemed himself, scoring 30.52 fantasy points on 20 of 29 passing for 163 yards and three touchdowns, as well as adding seven carries for 60 yards and a touchdown on the ground. A deep dive into Mariota’s stats show that in his three best performances, he completed 69%, 75.8% and 61% of his passes, with average completions of 8.2 yards, 9.5 yards and 10.8 yards, respectively, with seven touchdowns and two interceptions. In his two poor performances, he completed 44.8% and 51.5% of his passes, with average completions of 15.5 yards and 12.6 yards, with no touchdowns and three interceptions. It is interesting to note that when Mariota is throwing the ball down the field with frequency, he is actually at his fantasy worst, however, when he is dinking and dunking his way down the field, he tends to perform very well. With DeMarco Murray proving he is still one of the best running backs in the league, one would think that Mariota would excel in play action situations, which is generally the best time to push the ball down the field, but over a short five game sample, that does not seem to be the case for him. Considering his inconsistency, it could be fair to say that putting Mariota in this column, would make me guilty of chasing his points from last week. That might be true in most cases, but Mariota finds himself in Fantasy Candyland this weekend, going against our favorite opponent to pick on, The Cleveland Browns. The Browns rank 25th in passing yards allowed, giving up 288.4 passing yards to their opponents. Interestingly enough, the Browns allow 352.5 passing yards at home, but only 245.7 on the road, although it should be noted that they’ve faced Ryan Tannehill and Kirk Cousins on the road, and Carson Wentz, Joe Flacco and Tom Brady at home. Home or away, Cleveland has been very generous to opposing fantasy quarterbacks, allowing multiple touchdowns in every game, and at least 278 passing yards in four of their five outings. Opposing quarterbacks average 26.14 fantasy points per game against the Browns. Mariota will pose an especially difficult challenge for the Browns linebackers and secondary, as he seems much more comfortable tucking the ball and running outside the pocket, as well as running read option plays alongside DeMarco Murray. The Cleveland vs Tennessee matchup has a low projected total of 43.5 points, but the Titans do have a solid implied team total of 25.25 points, good for the eighth highest total on this week’s slate. Mariota’s outlook is boosted by the fact that he now has his full complement of receivers healthy, most specifically, Delanie Walker, Kendall Wright, Rishard Mathews and Tajae Sharpe. He also has former AFC South superstar Andre Johnson to help out on third downs and in the red zone, and although it is rare he becomes fantasy relevant, Johnson’s contributions are invaluable to a young quarterback like Mariota. All in all, Mariota has a golden matchup, at home, and should be brimming with confidence as he’s coming off one of the best games of his young career. At his price tag of $6,100, Mariota can hit value in a number of ways given his unique skillset, which is really the most alluring part of rostering him for GPP’s. His ownership could be somewhat inflated coming off a big game and in a great matchup this week, but I can’t see it going over 10%, so ownership percentage is not something you need to worry about with Mariota this week. If you are playing a high volume of lineups, Mariota has the matchup and the upside to justify something around 10% exposure, which is exactly where I will be at this weekend.
Running Backs:
DeMarco Murray ($7,700)
Browns @ Titans
Projected Team Total: 25.25 points
Footballguys IVC Projection: 21.5 points (2.7x salary multiple)
With the perfect segue, we now move from Mariota to Murray, which I will begin by saying that they make a fantastic stack for their upcoming matchup. It has been a strategy of savvy DFS players for some time now, but now it seems the mainstream is catching on with respect to stacking quarterbacks and running backs. The idea revolves around cornering the market on a particular team’s touchdowns, and when done right, it can be a very advantageous move. With the Titans, it makes a lot of sense and that has more to do with Murray than it does Mariota, as Murray has accounted for five total touchdowns to Mariota’s eight total touchdowns. Murray has been a revelation this year, showing off a nice blend of power and explosiveness combined with soft hands catching the ball. He has been incredibly consistent, and that is due in main part to the fact that he has caught at least five passes in four of his five games. While Murray has certainly provided top level production in the touchdown department so far this year, his ability to hit value is not solely dependent on it, a rare feat among top level backs usually reserved for guys like Leveon Bell and David Johnson. Murray is averaging 92.2 rushing yards to go along with 4.8 receptions and 34.4 receiving yards per game, meaning before touchdowns, he is already at 17.4 points per game on average. Even with his salary rising $500 from last week to this week, Murray is returning a 2.3x salary multiple, as his floor. This week Murray finds himself in an exploitable matchup against a 20th ranked Cleveland run defense that is yielding 114.2 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs, and that number grows to 131 yards per game when the Browns are on the road. Cleveland is letting up on average, one rushing touchdown per game on the road to opposing running backs, however that number can definitely grow from week to week, given the fact that Cleveland ranks 30th in passing touchdowns allowed at 2.6 touchdowns per game. The Titans will have plenty of scoring opportunities in their matchup against the Browns, so Murray’s outlook for this game is very bright. The only thing that could hinder his chances of putting up a monster game would be a blowout, as the Titans have reigning Heisman Trophy winner, Derrick Henry, waiting in the wings. They’ve given Henry 34 carries through five games, but despite what many analysts thought prior to the start of the year, he poses no immediate threat to Murray’s job as the starter, nor has he affected Murray’s massive workload (93 carries and 24 receptions through give games). Murray has yet to score below 21.5 points in any one game, and he is the only running back who’s played at least four games who can say that. Despite his growing salary ($7,700), Murray is an attractive GPP option because he possesses both a high (and stable) floor and a high ceiling (29.5 points in week 3). With David Johnson and LeVeon Bell both on the slate this weekend, as well as guys like LeSean McCoy and Ezekiel Elliot making cases for themselves, it is hard to imagine a scenario where Murray’s ownership percentage gets too carried away. And even if it somehow did, I’d still want to roll with him in 20% of my GPP’s knowing he has one of the best matchups to go along with a steady workload as a true three down back.
LeSean McCoy ($6,900)
49ers @ Bills
Projected Team Total: 25.5 points
Footballguys IVC Projection: 19.6 points (2.8x salary multiple)
Much like Murray, McCoy has reminded fantasy owners with a short memory just how dominant a player he was on his former team. McCoy has had to pick up the slack for an offense that lost Sammy Watkins, who is the only Bills receiver capable of winning one on one matchups consistently, and forcing defenses to game plan against him. No sweat for McCoy though, as all he’s done is average 24.4 fantasy points per game over his last three games, while rushing for 150 yards, 70 yards and 110 yards with two touchdowns, respectively. He also chipped in 11 catches for 52 yards and another touchdown through the air over that time span. While the “what” is very nice, the “how” is even more impressive to me. Opposing defenses have been stacking the box against Buffalo, yet McCoy has still found a way to repeatedly juke defenders out of their shoes and average 6.16 yards per carry over his last three games, while maintaining 5.3 yards per carry for the year. McCoy showed off his trademark burst this past week en-route to a 53 yard gain that put a final stamp on the game against the Rams. On the game, McCoy rushed 18 times for 150 yards (8.3 yards per carry), before finishing with 20.8 fantasy points. He has four total touchdowns in five games, which is actually a very solid number considering the Bills have not made much happen in the passing game. If there is one area of concern for McCoy going forward, it is the inability of Tyrod Taylor and the Bills receivers to make big plays that would give McCoy more scoring opportunities. Now the flipside of that argument is that McCoy is given a large volume of touches because the Bills lack that explosiveness elsewhere, so it cannot be seen as too big a knock on McCoy’s value. This week McCoy gets a fantastic matchup against a 49ers run defense that is ranked next to last in the league, giving up 146.8 rushing yards per game, with that number jumping up to 151.5 when the 49ers play on the road. The 49ers have given up monster games to David Johnson (157 rushing yards, two touchdowns), Ezekiel Elliot (138 rushing yards and a touchdown), Christine Michael (106 rushing yards and two touchdowns) and Fozzy Whittaker (100 rushing yards). With McCoy being able to nearly hit value without scoring touchdowns, you have to feel good about his ability to exceed value given the fact that the 49ers have allowed 100 yard rushers in four of their five games, while allowing multiple touchdowns on the ground in two of their five games. McCoy is my favorite PP$ play on the slate this weekend, and although he has not yet reached his ceiling this season, he will have every opportunity to do so against the 49ers. Play him with confidence in your GPP lineups.
Tevin Coleman ($4,800)
Falcons @ Seahawks
Projected Team Total: 19.75 points
Footballguys IVC Projection: 12.4 points (2.6x salary multiple)
Coleman has been one of the biggest surprises this year at running back. Coleman missed all of last season with an injury, and had to sit on the bench and watch as Devonta Freeman lit up the fantasy landscape. When Falcons coaches commented that Freeman and Coleman would share running back duties this season, many analysts rolled their eyes (myself included) and chalked it up as classic coach speak. Well, five games into the season and it seems as though the Atlanta coaching staff knew exactly what they had in Coleman, a home run hitter who excels as a runner both inside and outside the tackles, as well as a dynamo in the passing game that routinely makes linebackers look silly trying to cover him. He is a rare value play, and it feels as though DraftKings is playing a game of chicken, daring owners to overexpose themselves to Coleman at a bargain price, only to watch him falter and have Freeman see the lion’s share of carries. How else can you explain his $4,800 salary? Through five games He’s scored 16.7, 15.1, 29.9, 6.9 and 29.3 fantasy points, essentially hitting GPP value in all but one week. Coleman was initially ruled as questionable to play last week due to a sickle cell trait that is exacerbated in the altitude of Denver. All questions were to put to rest as Coleman completely decimated the Denver linebackers to the tune of four catches for 132 yards and a touchdown, while also chipping in 31 yards on six carries. This week Coleman faces another tough test when the Falcons travel to Seattle to take on a physical Seahawks defense that is ranked seventh in rush defense, giving up only 80.2 yards on average to opposing running backs. While Coleman and Freeman will certainly have their work cut out for them rushing the football, the Seahawks have not been as formidable when it comes to stopping opposing running backs in the passing game, an area where Coleman has exploited linebacker matchups in nearly every games he’s played. Arian Foster caught three passes for 62 yards against the Seahawks in week 1, and Bilal Powell had similar success against Seattle in week 4, catching six passes for 54 yards. The Falcons are projected to score only 19.75 points, which seems extremely low considering they are averaging 35 points per game in 2016. While that number is probably not sustainable, the Falcons continue to be underrated on offense, and a big part of that is because they are getting such incredible production from their running backs, as opposed to a team like Pittsburgh or New Orleans. Coleman’s price is too soft and his upside is too high for him not to be considered an enticing GPP play this week. I expect a large majority of GPP fields to continue to overlook him, but it will be a foolish mistake. His production is not a fluke, and he deserves meaningful exposure in your GPP lineups.
Wide Receiver
Marvin Jones ($7,200)
Rams @ Lions
Projected Team Total: 23.25 points
Footballguys IVC Projection: 17 points (2.3x salary multiple)
Jones came into the year as somewhat of a question mark, as he played very well in a complimentary role in Cincinnati but he never saw the volume of a primary receiver, nor did he see the coverage that came along with being the #1 receiver in an offense. Through five games he has proven that he can carry the load as the primary receiver in the Lions offense, recording either 70+ yards or a touchdown in every game that’s he played in 2016. This of course includes his ridiculous six catch, 205 yard and two touchdown game against Green Bay, where he displayed the type of big play ability that the Lions had hoped for when they signed him to try and replace the downfield production of Calvin Johnson. Jones also showed he can handle a heavy volume of targets in a possession role, tallying eight catches for 118 yards in a week 2 matchup against Tennessee. He has seen his salary rise from $4,600 in week 1, all the way to a season high $7,600 in week five against Philadelphia. His salary currently sits at $7,200, which is probably exactly where it should be given his established upside. This week the Lions host a Rams defense that is 14th overall in passing defense, allowing 240.4 yards passing to opposing quarterbacks this year. While the Rams have defended the pass pretty well this year that has not stopped them from getting torched by opposing wide receivers. Mike Evans dominated the Rams secondary on his way to a 10 catch, 132 yard and one touchdown effort in week 3, while teammate Adam Humphries also posted nine catches for 100 yards in the same game. The following week, John Brown lit them up with 10 catches for 144 yards. This is the type of heavy volume that Jones can expect to see this week, and despite the Lions having a rather uninspiring projected team total of 23.25 points, Jones has proven he is capable of hitting GPP value without hitting pay dirt. With Jarvis Landry, Michael Crabtree, DeAndre Hopkins and Amari Cooper all falling within $300 of Jones, it is highly likely that Jones will see a low ownership percentage, which when combined with his GPP winning ceiling, makes him an excellent GPP option this week. Jones is averaging 20.6 points and over 100 yards receiving per game, so you can feel confident plugging him into your GPP lineups and seeing a solid return in what is a sneaky good matchup for the Lions.
Terrance Williams ($3,800)
Cowboys @ Packers
Projected Team Total: 21.75 points
Footballguys IVC Projection: 14.6 points (4x salary multiple)
Williams has quietly been of the better PP$ plays over the last three weeks, a fact that coincides with Dez Bryant’s continued absence. Williams has developed a rapport with rookie quarterback Dak Prescott, and has been one of the players who has not been shy about voicing his support for Prescott. With Bryant in the lineup, Williams totaled three catches for 44 yards, however with Bryant on the sidelines for the last three games, he has caught 13 passes for 202 yards and a touchdown. Williams has been primarily used as a downfield threat throughout his career, so it is somewhat surprising how efficient he has been this season, leading all receivers with an 84.2% catch rate (16 receptions on 19 targets). This week the Cowboys travel to Green Bay to take on the Packers in what has proven to be an advantageous matchup for wide receivers so far this season. The Packers rank 24th in pass defense allowing 274.5 passing yards per game. Green Bay’s split stats are negligible, as they’ve allowed 272 passing yards per game at home, and 277 passing yards per game on the road. The Packers have had trouble at the cornerback position in 2016, and it has shown up in the box scores quite emphatically. Marvin Jones absolutely destroyed them in week 3, notching six catches for 205 yards and two scores, and Stefon Diggs was equally impressive, catching nine passes for 182 yards and a touchdown in week two. While it would be foolish to expect that type of production out of Williams this week, his salary is so soft at $3,600, he only needs something in the neighborhood of five catches for 70 yards and a touchdown to be a difference maker in GPP’s. The Dallas vs Green Bay matchup has the second highest implied total of the week at 47.5 points, so Williams has the benefit of being the #1 option in what could very well turn out to be a shootout. The strength of the Dallas offense is unquestionably their rushing, but they will find tough sledding against a Green Bay defense that has only allowed 42.8 rushing yards per game, by far the best in the NFL, and over 26 yards better than the next best team (NY Jets 68.2 rushing yards allowed per game). This should force the Cowboys into more passing situations which can only stand to benefit Williams. It may seem as though there is a healthy amount of risk associated with playing Williams this week, but considering his salary, matchup, projected game total, catch percentage and role in the Cowboys’ offense, he has a lot of things going for him this week and makes for an excellent GPP option.
Brandon Marshall ($7,600)
Jets @ Cardinals
Projected Team Total: 19.75 points
Footballguys IVC Projection: 16.7 points (2.1x salary multiple)
If we were going solely on projecting PP$ value, Marshall would not be an ideal GPP play this week. With that said, Marshall’s value got a nice bump this week with the news that Eric Decker is slated to miss the rest of the year with a torn rotator cuff. Putting your faith in Marshall has become much tougher this year due to the inconsistent play of quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick, although that is no indictment on his skill as a receiver. Even as Marshall continues to age, he has maintained an elite level of production that places him among the top wide receivers of our current generation. Through five games, Marshall has totaled 24 receptions for 363 yards and two touchdowns, and has averaged 15.7 fantasy points per game. He is seeing 28% of the total targets in the Jets passing game, which places him among the top wide receivers in the league in that category. Marshall has had some inconsistent outings this year, but as previously mentioned, that has more to do with Fitzpatrick than it does Marshall. While he has put up some duds (6.2 points in week 1, 5.7 points in week 3), Marshall has also shown he still has a high ceiling, totaling eight catches for 114 yards and a touchdown in week 5 (28.4 fantasy points), and has scored in two straight games. This week he finds himself in an advantageous matchup against an Arizona Cardinals secondary that allowed touchdowns to receivers in four of their five games. The two receivers who have seen double digit targets against the Cardinals (Mike Evans and Jeremy Kerley), have both found the end zone, and I would expect that to continue this week with Marshall. He is guaranteed to see 12+ targets, which should translate into seven catches for 70 yards and a touchdown as a floor projection. The Jets vs Cardinals matchup is tied for the seventh highest projected game total (46.5 points), and considering how inconsistent Arizona has been this season, there is a very good chance this game turns into a shootout, in which case Marshall would be the primary beneficiary. Marshall has a very stable floor, and if there is one mistake I am seeing with respect to his projections, is that some analysts are severely underestimating his ceiling, which ultimately determines his GPP value. There are some flashier options out there in Marshall’s price range, but he brings such a high target volume that his opportunity to score multiple touchdowns is superior to others around him.
Tight Ends
Jimmy Graham ($4,900)
Falcons @ Seahawks
Projected Team Total: 25.75 points
Footballguys IVC Projection: 13.4 points (2.7x salary multiple)
For all those who said that Graham will never be the same player he was in New Orleans, the last two weeks have sure looked like the old Jimmy Graham. Graham started the season off slowly, catching four passes for 53 yards in his first two games before exploding with back to back 100 yard games, and totaling 12 catches for 213 yards and a touchdown. He has stepped up his game at the perfect time, as the Seahawks were struggling to generate big plays in the passing game, and they needed a consistent option in the middle of the field to take pressure off of Doug Baldwin and Tyler Lockett. Most impressive has been Graham’s 17.7 yards per catch over the last two weeks, which speaks to the fact that Graham is fully healthy and getting out of his breaks much quicker and beating linebackers down the field. This week the Seahawks find themselves in a dream matchup against an Atlanta defense that ranks 26th in passing defense, allowing 290 yards per game. Specifically, Atlanta has had fits trying to stop opposing tight ends in the red zone. They have allowed five touchdowns to opposing tight ends, with those scores occurring in four of their five games. Colby Fleener had his best game of the season with seven catches for 109 yards and a touchdown against Atlanta, while Greg Olsen produced six catches for 76 yards and a touchdown in his week four matchup against the Falcons. It isn’t just big name tight ends beating the Falcons in the red zone, as Clive Walford, Austin Seferian-Jenkins and Brandon Myers all crossed pay dirt in their games against Atlanta. With Graham on a hot streak and in a great matchup, this is one of those instances where you don’t want to overthink things. Tight end has been hard enough to predict, whether you pay up or not, so if you are able to lock Graham in at $4,900, you have to play him in a significant percentage of your GPP’s, and I would advise maxing out your exposure.
