Bink Inc.
Here at Bink Inc, my aim is to break down the DraftKings player pool and give you the skinny on the various GPP options at your disposal. I will be going through all positions and all pricing tiers, as well as dropping GPP lineup construction knowledge. Due to DraftKings new regulations regarding selling lineups, we can’t actually give you pre-built lineups. With that said, each week the Bink Inc. article will provide you with all of the information you need, so that you can craft lineups from our suggestions. In many ways this is better for our readers, as you will become familiar with the different strategies for GPP lineup construction and be able to identify how value shifts from position to position depending on the pricing each week.
Let’s get into it…
Quarterbacks:
Aaron Rodgers ($8,500)
Packers @ Jaguars
Projected Team Total: 25.5 points (7nd highest team total)
Footballguys IVC Projection: 20.8 points (2.4x salary multiple)
Rodgers and the Packers travel to Jacksonville to open their season against the Jaguars. Green Bay has the second highest projected team total (25.5 points) for week 1, and the sixth highest game total (47 points). Rodgers will have a healthy Jordy Nelson back, and that means good things for the entire Packers offense. At $8,500, Rodgers is the highest salaried quarterback, and his unusually high price-tag should keep him from being a popular option, making him a green light play for GPP’s. The Jaguars have gotten a lot better on both sides of the ball, so I don’t see this being a blowout with the Jags playing at home. This should allow four quarters of aggressive play from Rodgers, and there are only a handful of quarterbacks that possess his upside. Over his career, Rodgers has been a much more efficient quarterback at home (139/26, 109.8 QB Rating) versus on the road (118/39, 98.7 QB Rating), despite attempting 96 more passes in road games. I don’t see myself having high exposure to Rodgers, but he is a guy I want in 7-10% of my lineups, as the upside for a 4+ TD game is certainly there. Typically, you want to see a higher return on your investment than his current projection of 20.8 points, but that is a function of his salary and the potential for a very high scoring affair against the Jaguars.
Andrew Luck ($8,300)
Lions @ Colts
Projected Team Total: 27 points (Tied with Seattle for highest team total)
Footballguys IVC Projection: 21.8 points (2.6x salary multiple)
The Colts are projected to score the most points of any team during week 1, making Luck a prime candidate for high ownership, despite his hefty salary. Luck draws an average Detroit defense, but what might affect his point total more than anything is his own defense. The Colts will presumably be missing five starters on defense, including cornerback Vontae Davis. This closes the gap between the two teams and should lead to a back and forth high scoring game, which is good news for Luck owners. He is one of the more stable options at quarterback, and considering the lack of explosiveness in the Colts run game, Luck will need to generate big plays in the passing game in order to move the ball. Wide receivers T.Y. Hilton ($7,500), Donte Moncrief ($6,000) and Phillip Dorsett ($4,500) all make for good stacks, and I would not hesitate to double stack two of them alongside Luck. While Aaron Rodgers projected ownership is in the 5%-8% range, we could see Luck go up as high as 15%. This affects the level of exposure I want in Luck, but you cannot fade him completely. Over the last three years, Luck has the second most 300 yard passing games (16), trailing only Drew Brees (29). He also adds value as a runner, averaging just over 20 rushing yards per game over his career, while chipping in 12 rushing touchdowns. He draws a dream matchup against the Lions at home, so anything less than a 300/2 type game would be a disappointment. Start him with confidence.
Drew Brees ($8,100)
Raiders @ Saints
Projected Team Total: 25.75 points (6th highest)
Footballguys IVC Projection: 20.2 points (2.4x salary multiple)
Brees and the Saints host the Raiders in week 1, with Vegas predicting the game to be the highest scoring of all week 1 matchups (50.5 points). The Raiders defense is young and aggressive under head coach Jack Del Rio, and they have one of the better young players in Khalil Mack. Unfortunately for the Raiders, they have to play against one of the most prolific quarterbacks of our generation. Over his career, Brees has averaged 287 yards passing and just over two passing touchdowns per game at home, with a QB rating of 100.9. I will be targeting this game specifically, with heavy exposure to both Brees and Derek Carr. I expect Brees to have ownership in the 10%-12% range, which makes him one of the better options in the top tier. As mentioned above, Brees has the most 300 yard passing games (29) over the last three years, 13 ahead of his closest competitor (Andrew Luck, 16). With DraftKings offering bonus points at 300 yards, he automatically jumps to the top of my quarterback list. Targeting this game with Brees/Cooks and/or Brees/Snead is an advantageous stack.
Russell Wilson ($7,900)
Dolphins @ Seahawks
Projected Team Total: 27 points (Tied with Indy for highest week 1 team total)
Footballguys IVC Projection: 20.4 points (2.5x salary multiple)
If you see a trend developing, then you are correct. Targeting high end quarterbacks in soft matchups is a strategy that doesn’t come around too often, but when it does, it can be the number one difference maker in large GPP’s. Last year, the Giants and Saints gave up the most passing yards in the NFL, and their defenses became prime targets for any quarterback who was lucky enough to play against them. Cam Newton had the highest salary at QB in both of his matchups with the Giants and Saints, and put up 40.1 and 48.6 points, respectively. Spending up at quarterback is not something I do often given the value in the middle tier, however the top guys are blessed with some very advantageous matchups in week 1, and doing so will offer the opportunity to have a unique lineup. Seattle is tied for the highest team total with the Colts (27 points), and they draw an excellent matchup against a weak Miami secondary. It remains to be seen whether Seattle will unleash Russell Wilson in the same way they did the second half of last season, where he averaged 26.7 points per game over his last nine games. Wilson is a dynamic playmaker, and he will have a field day picking apart a Dolphins secondary that projects to be one of the worst in the league.
Eli Manning ($7,500)
Giants @ Cowboys
Projected Team Total: 23 points
Footballguys IVC Projection: 19.2 points
Eli Manning is an interesting play this week at $7,500. He is coming off a year where he threw for 4,432 yards, 35 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. He had six 300 yard passing games, and threw more multiple touchdowns in 11 of his 16 starts. Eli will most likely be a contrarian play, as Dak Prescott will command a high ownership percentage at the minimum salary for quarterbacks ($5,000). Manning was downright awful against the Cowboys last year, scoring 6.4 and 8.4 points in two outings, which happened to be the two worst games of his season. With Odell Beckham Jras his number one receiver, and a shiny new toy in rookie Sterling Shepard, Manning will continue to put up a handful of big games. The question is, can he rebound against a defense that shut him down twice last season? The answer to that question is yes, and he should be a very low owned option that has 40 point upside.
Derek Carr ($7,300)
Raiders @ Saints
Projected Team Total: 24.75
Footballguys IVC Projection: 20.7 (2.8x salary multiple)
We are getting closer to the elusive 3x number we are looking for out of our GPP quarterbacks. Carr comes into the season with as much promise as any young quarterback in the league. He has an elite receiver in Amari Cooper, and a very good #2 option in Michael Crabtree, who is experiencing a career resurgence after washing out in San Francisco. Carr has the benefit of playing against a Saints defense that gave up 300 yard passing performances in 11 of their 16 games. This included nuclear performances by Cam Newton (646 passing yards, 7 touchdowns to 1 interception in two games) and Eli Manning (350 yards passing, 6 touchdowns, no interceptions). Carr had six 300 yard passing games in 2015, and threw multiple touchdowns in 11 of his 16 games. This game has the highest projected total score (50.5 points), and could very well go over that number and approach 60 points. While there are some cheaper options that have similar upside to Carr, there is no better combination of matchup, salary and upside. He is the quarterback whom I will have the most exposure to in week 1.
Jameis Winston ($6,600)
Bucs @ Falcons
Projected Team Total: 22.25 points
Footballguys IVC Projection: 18.6 points (2.8x salary multiple)
Similar to Carr, Winston comes into his second season with huge expectations. He has become the leader of the Bucs offense, and possesses the raw, natural skills to be a top 5 quarterback, and that could happen much sooner than you think. A big part of Winston’s ascent to fantasy stud will depend on his ability to mesh with his #1 receiver, Mike Evans. Evans is 6-5, 230 with good top end speed, as well as the jumping ability to beat any corner in the league on a jump ball. On the opposite side, an aging Vincent Jackson showed that he still has enough gas in the tank to be a big time threat down the field. Jackson is also 6-5, 230, and with Winston’s ability to make all the throws, the Bucs offense is poised to take a quantum leap in Winston’s sophomore campaign. He draws a Falcons defense that was solid last season, ranking 18th in passing yards allowed per game (240.6), after a dreadful season in 2014 where they were dead last in the same category. This matchup is projected to have the fifth highest scoring total (47.5 points), but there is certainly room for this game to hit the over with explosive players on both sides. Winston is a pure athlete, and is always a threat to add a touchdown on the ground, scoring six rushing touchdowns in his rookie season. In addition to Brees and Carr, heavy exposure to Winston is a play that should pay off.
Running Back:
Todd Gurley ($7,800)
Rams @ 49ers
Projected Team Total: 23.25
Footballguys IVC Projection: 19.6 (2.5x salary multiple)
Gurley made an instant impression in his rookie season, rushing for at least 100 yards in 5 of his 12 starts, while scoring touchdowns in eight of those games. Gurley is a beast at 6-1, 227lbs, and possesses a rare blend of power and speed with the vision to take advantage of his natural gifts. The Rams selected their quarterback of the future in Jared Goff, but for now, Gurley is their offense. He will be force fed the ball and should top 300 carries on the season after averaging 18.5 carries as a rookie. The 49ers allowed the 4th most rushing yards in 2015, giving up 126.3 rushing yards per game on average to their opponents. Gurley will have fresh legs heading into the season opener, so there is no reason to think he cannot have the type of game indicative of a player with the highest salary at his position. Gurley had only 21 catches for 188 yards in 2015—but it is hard to argue against Gurley when he is one of the few running backs with a clearly defined three down role. His coaches have said that they plan to get him the ball more in passing situations, and if this is true, Gurley will undoubtedly be among the top three running backs at years end. When compared to the top receivers (Antonio Brown $9,800; Julio Jones $9,400; Odell Beckham Jr$9,300) Gurley is a bargain, so stacking two top running back options (Gurley/David Johnson, Gurley/Adrian Peterson, Gurley/DeAngelo Williams) could lead to being a winning combination in large GPP’s.
David Johnson ($7,500)
Patriots @ Cardinals
Projected Team Total: 26.75 points
Footballguys IVC Projection: 19.0 points (2.5x salary multiple)
David Johnson burst on the scene in his rookie season, scoring three touchdowns in his first two games despite receiving only ten total touches. It wasn’t long after that both Chris Johnson and Andre Ellington went down with injuries, and Johnson was given the keys to the castle. At 6-1, 224lbs, Johnson is a physical runner with the athleticism and speed to break open big plays, adding a whole other dimension to an already potent offense. Johnson’s greatest contribution comes in the passing game though, as he is a natural pass catcher who can line up in the back field or as a receiver on the outside or even in the slot. He finished the season with 1,038 total yards and 12 total touchdowns, to go along with 36 receptions and an impressive 4.6 yards per carry. The Cardinals host a Tom Brady-less Patriots team at home in week 1. From top to bottom, the Pats defense is one of the better units in the league, allowing only two 100 yard rushers in 2015. Johnson will face a tough test in the Patriots defensive front, but he is my #1 running back regardless of matchup. He can dominate the game in both rushing and passing situations and gets stronger as the game goes on. There is no doubt in my mind that the Cardinals ride Johnson in this matchup, and there are few running backs who are guaranteed the type of high-quality touches that he will see. Play him with confidence.
DeAngelo Williams ($7,000)
Steelers @ Redskins
Projected Team Total: 26.5 points (3rd highest team total)
Footballguys IVC Projection: 19 points (2.7x salary multiple)
As we learned last year, whomever is starting in the Steelers backfield is deserving of #1 running back status and will be heavily involved in both phases of the offense. In ten starts last season, Williams averaged just over 20 combined touches per game. He saw carry totals of 21, 20, 27, 26 and 23, while catching at least four passes in six games. Williams will serve as a three down back and get goal line touches, which increases his value in a game that is projected to have the second highest total in week 1 (50 points). The Redskins defense allowed six different running backs to exceed 100 rushing yards against them, but on the flipside they didn’t give up a multiple touchdown game to a running back the entire season. When you factor in price and opportunity, there are few running backs on this slate that can match Williams in these areas. He has proven to be a very productive player for the Steelers when given the lion’s share of the work, and that will continue in a back and forth game that should at least get to the total of 50 points. The opportunity for 120 combined yards, five receptions and a touchdown are there for the taking, making Williams one of the best GPP options in week 1. He will be highly owned, so it is best to keep your exposure in the 10-15% range.
Lamar Miller ($7,000)
Bears @ Texans
Projected Team Total: 24 points
Footballguys IVC Projection: 17.1 points (2.4x salary multiple)
Miller is one of the more intriguing plays in week 1, as he is playing on a new team that just signed a new franchise quarterback to pilot their offense (Brock Osweiler). The fact that Osweiler only has six career starts is not lost on me, and it shouldn’t be on you either. The Texans signed to a big contract for a reason. They expect him to be a workhorse back, who can play on all three downs and in the red zone. Miller showcased his ability to run between the tackles, but still use his game breaking speed to generate big plays, and that was on a Dolphins team that had horrendous offensive line play last season. If those reason weren’t enough, then add in the fact that Chicago graded out as one of the worst rush defenses in 2015, and they didn’t bolster their line or add key pieces that would change this weakness. While it seems like a dream scenario for Miller in his first game as a Texan, there is one area that worries me, and that is the Texans offensive line. They did not play well in the preseason, and injuries to starters Duane Brown and Derek Newton have led to a lack of continuity. If the Chicago defensive line was of even average talent, lowering your exposure to Miller would make sense, but for now you can lock him in at 10-12% exposure throughout your lineups. Fantasy production comes from a combination of talent and opportunity, and those are both things that Miller has in spades heading into week 1.
Mark Ingram ($6,600)
Raiders @ Saints
Projected Team Total: 25.75 points
Footballguys IVC Projection: 16.3 points (2.4x salary multiple)
The running back position is loaded with great options in the top tier, and in many ways spending up to get two elite players is a strong lineup construction strategy. In his first season as the feature back in New Orleans, Ingram did not disappoint. He scored double digit points in 11 of his 12 starts (Ingram injured his ankle, which led to him missing the last four games), while scoring six touchdowns on the ground. Where Ingram surprised me though was in the passing game. He became a consistent threat catching the ball, recording 50 catches for 405 yards. He caught at least four passes in seven games, and topped 40 yards receiving in five games. While he lacks the ceiling of other running backs in his price range—Ingram’s highest scoring game was 25.8 points—his consistency in a high powered offense is something I covet. He will have a tough matchup against an aggressive Raiders defensive front, but as mentioned previously, Ingram is locked into a high volume of touches. He averaged 18 touches a game, and is a good candidate to exceed his touchdown totals from a year ago. Throw in a high scoring matchup with the potential to be a shootout, and Ingram becomes one of my favorite options to solidify the lineups where I opted for a balanced approach.
Doug Martin ($6,200)
Bucs @ Falcons
Projected Team Total: 22.25 points
Footballguys IVC Projection: 14.2 points (2.2x salary multiple)
Martin’s projection seems to be on the low side, however it makes sense when you consider the fact that he depends on touchdowns and high rushing totals to exceed his floor. Martin enjoyed a bounce back season in 2015, finishing with 1402 yards chipped in 33 catches for 271 yards and a touchdown. Martin has proven in years past that he has a higher ceiling than other players in his price range (he had games of 39.8, 28.3 and 26.5 points in 2015), which makes him an intriguing option in large GPP’s where a 30+ point performance can lead to a deep run. The Falcons have a good run stopping unit, allowing only one 100 yard performance last season, and that was to Adrian Peterson (29/158/2). Martin had games of 8.8 and 16 points against the Falcons in 2015, combining for 48 carries for 166 yards and a touchdown. I expect him to see in the neighborhood of 16-20 carries, and that should yield at least 75 yards for Martin. His ability to exceed his value will come down to whether or not he scores a touchdown (or two), but that is a risk worth taking because his projected ownership is considerably lower than the other players around him.
Spencer Ware ($4,400)
Chargers @ Chiefs
Projected Team Total: 25 points
Footballguys IVC Projection: 15.4 points (3.5x salary multiple)
Just when you thought the running back position was going to be one of a high degree of uncertainty, Jamaal Charles is ruled out for week 1 and Spencer Ware becomes the highest owned running back in week 1. And with good reason too. Ware was very productive in a starting role for the Chiefs this preseason, and this was consistent with how he played last year when given the opportunity. In the four games where he was given at least 10 carries, Ware racked up 355 yards for 5 touchdowns, while averaging 5.7 yards per carry. Ware is an elite red zone running back, converting five of seven rushes inside the five yard for touchdowns. Ware is better suited as a three down back than Charcandrick West, although this may not even be a competition considering West has been injured for much of the preseason and while he may suit up in week 1, the Chiefs seem content to roll with Ware as the starter. Not only is Ware locked in as the starter with Charles out, but he gets a great matchup against a Chargers defense that he carved up to the tune of 19 carries for 148 yards and two touchdowns in his only start against them in 2015. The Chargers defense struggled in stopping opposing running backs last season, allowing 100+ yard games to Ronnie Hillman and CJ Anderson, Giovani Bernard, Leveon Bell, Adrian Peterson and James Starks. Ware is one of only two running backs in our IVC projected to exceed a 3x multiple of their salary, with the other being James White. He will undoubtedly have a high ownership percentage, but that should not discourage you from having, say, 15% exposure, as there are plenty of other ways to differentiate yourself in GPP lineups. Stacking the KC defense with Ware, is a combination that should yield a positive correlation and provide tremendous value at their respective prices.
James White ($3,600)
Patriots @ Cardinals
Projected Team Total: 20.75 points
Footballguys IVC Projection: 12 points (3.3x salary multiple)
With Dion Lewis sidelined for at least the first four weeks of the season, White steps into the role of a third down back for the Patriots. That role has shown to be very valuable over the last two seasons. When Lewis went down in the middle of the 2015 season, White stepped in and performed very well. He finished the year with 47 catches for 494 yards and four touchdowns, while also adding 72 yards rushing to go along with two rushing touchdowns. White has a nose for the end zone, evidenced by a stretch of games from weeks 11 through 16, where he scored six touchdowns in six weeks. This included a two touchdown game against the Bills, where he rushed for a touchdown and also caught a touchdown pass. His best performance came against the Eagles in week 13. White caught 10 passes for 115 yards and a touchdown, and returned a 9x multiple on his salary (30.9 points @ $3,300). With Jimmy Garappolo slated to start the first four weeks of the season, White should be heavily involved in the passing game as Garappolo gets comfortable in the offense. The Cardinals have a litany of talent of the defensive side and I would expect them to pressure Garappolo every chance they get. This could be very good for White, as the more aggressive the Cardinals become, the better chance White has to slip outside and pick up yards after the catch. Arizona allowed three receiving touchdowns to running backs last year, with one of them being Duke Johnson Jr, who caught nine passes for 85 yards and a touchdown. Johnson and White play very similar roles for their respective teams. The Cardinals are favored by six points in this game, if they are able to gain an early lead this would put the Patriots in pass first mode and White would see the field more often than power back LeGarrette Blount. White was being pushed by rookie DJ Foster—Foster is in a similar mold but is far ahead of where White was as a rookie—but he looks as though he has been able to secure the coveted third down role for the Patriots. White definitely carries some risk, but in the games where he filled in for Lewis, he put up 18.6, 2.6, 30.9, 14, 20.7, 14.2, 8.8, 6.4 and 10.6 points. All in all, he was pretty consistent across the board while showing the upside to be a key player in GPP lineups.
Wide Receivers
Antonio Brown ($9,800)
Steelers @ Washington
Projected Team Total: 26.5 points
Footballguys IVC Projection: 27.2 points (2.7x salary multiple)
Antonio Brown is matchup proof, but he draws a very nice matchup against a Redskins secondary that allowed 22 touchdowns to opposing wide receivers in 2015. Among the players who torched their secondary was Odell Beckham Jr who had games of 7/79/1 and 9/142/1. Brown is looking at a heavy target volume, perhaps even more than he had last year, which is saying something considering he drew 193 targets and finished with 136 catches for 1,834 yards and 10 touchdowns. Brown has increased his catches and yards every year for the last four years, and with Martavis Bryant suspended for the entire year, Brown will once again lead the league in targets, catches and yards. His salary makes it difficult to balance the other areas of your roster, however, if you look at some of the value I have outlined at running back, quarterback and tight end, you can put together GPP lineups that give you a great chance at a deep run. Not only does Brown have the highest upside of the three, but he also reaches his ceiling more frequently than Jones or Beckham, scoring 39+ points in six different games last season. Enough said. Get him in your GPP lineups.
Julio Jones ($9,400)
Bucs @ Atlanta
Projected Team Total: 25.25 points
Footballguys IVC Projection: 24.4 points (2.5x salary multiple)
The latest reports have Julio Jones as questionable for week 1 due to an ankle injury he sustained during a preseason game against the Dolphins. Jones has stated that he will play, and I have no real concerns over the injury because he has consistently played at a high level while dealing with similar injuries. Jones broke out in 2015, finishing the year with 136 receptions for 1,871 yards and eight touchdowns. Jones had at least nine catches in ten games last season, and with the Falcons lack of depth at the wide receiver position, Jones finds himself in a similar situation as Brown. He will be the centerpiece of the offense, and he is another player that is in for a significant increase in touchdowns. Catching 136 balls and only scoring eight touchdowns doesn’t make much sense, especially given his size and ability to outjump and out-muscle defenders in short space. Jones got the best of the Tampa cornerbacks last year, combining for 20 catches for 255 yards and a touchdown in two games. Look for Jones to generate a 10/120/1 type game, which would put him right around 30 points, which is the magical number you need to justify his insanely high salary.
Odell Beckham Jr ($9,300)
Giants @ Cowboys
Projected Team Total: 23 points
Footballguys IVC Projection: 23.6 points (2.5x salary multiple)
Of the three elite wide receivers, Beckham is the one that worries me the most. In two games against the Cowboys last season, Beckham combined for 9 catches for 79 yards and a touchdown. This is obviously a function of Eli Manning’s struggles against Dallas, but Beckham needs to be able to beat one on coverage and generate big plays if the Giants want to evolve as an offense. Having rookie Sterling Shepard starting across from him should help take some of the heat off Beckham, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Shepard ends up as the main beneficiary in week 1. Beckham has the highest touchdown upside of the three, having scored multiple touchdowns in 6 of his 26 career starts. That is roughly a two touchdown performance every 4.3 games, and these are the type of games that allow him to reach his ceiling. Given his poor performance against Dallas last year, it is hard to recommend any meaningful exposure to Beckham at his current price. With that said, make sure you get him in at least a lineup or two, his upside is too high to completely fade.
Mike Evans ($7,400)
Bucs @ Falcons
Projected Team Total: 22.25 points
Footballguys IVC Projection: 18 points (2.4x salary multiple)
Mike Evans is my pick for breakout wide receiver of the year. Some might say he has already accomplished that, but I’m going to take it a step further and say Evans finishes as a top five wide receiver. He doesn’t have the target volume of an Antonio Brown or Julio Jones, but what he does have is freakish athleticism in a 6-5, 230lb body that can out jump and out muscle any cornerback in the league. With Jameis Winston poised to take a big leap in his sophomore season, Evans has a quarterback who can make all the throws. and that is all Evans needs. His wingspan and catch radius is as wide as any receiver in the league, and he wins nearly every jump ball that is thrown his way. Evans played two games against the Falcons last year, and combined for eight catches for 109 yards and a touchdown. The Atlanta secondary is the strength of their defense and they did a good job of containing Evans in their matchup last year. This year will be different though, Evans is the clear cut #1 receiver for Tampa Bay and Winston is smart enough to know they have to find ways to get the ball in his hands. Evans projected ownership is right in the 10% range, which sounds about right. Stacking Winston/Evans is a combination that be will be low owned. Winston’s ability to score touchdowns on the ground gives this stack that extra punch that it needs to compete with the top quarterback/receiver stacks.
Amari Cooper ($7,200)
Raiders @ Saints
Projected Team Total: 22.25 points
Footballguys IVC Projection: 18.2 (2.5x salary multiple)
Cooper is one of my favorite plays this week, and he is the receiver that I will have the most exposure to along with Mike Evans, Antonio Brown and Jarvis Landry. Cooper enjoyed a stellar rookie season, finishing the season with 72 catches for 1,070 yards and six touchdowns. He was somewhat inconsistent from week to week, having six games with 20+ points, while also having four weeks of less than four points. This is something that I expect to change. Cooper will have a year under his belt and the word from beat writers is that Cooper and Carr have been working hard on their chemistry. Cooper has the raw talent to be among the best receivers in the league, and he has a perfect chance to showcase his skillset in week 1 versus the Saints. New Orleans was historically bad last season, allowing opposing quarterbacks to finish with, on average, a 116.2 QB rating. For context, Russell Wilson led the NFL with a 110.1 QB rating, which means every week, the Saints were playing a better version of Russell Wilson. The Saints also got obliterated by opposing wide receivers, allowing six multi-touchdown games to receivers TY Hilton (4/150/2), Odell Beckham Jr (8/130/3), Ted Ginn Jr (5/80/2), Golden Tate (6/45/2), Allen Hurns (8/106/2) and Dwayne Harris (3/37/2). Cooper and Michael Crabtree should feast on the New Orleans secondary and it would not be a surprise if they both put up games of 20+ points. He will probably be highly owned, but his price, upside and game script are too good to ignore. You can find players at other positions to differentiate your team.
Jarvis Landry ($6,000)
Dolphins @ Seahawks
Projected Team Total: 17 points
Footballguys IVC Projection: 15.5 (2.5x salary multiple)
You can probably guess by now that I tend to target players whose teams have high projected totals. In this case, I am banking on the game script going exactly as Vegas (and the general public) thinks it will. If Seattle gets up on Miami say, 21-3 at halftime, expect Landry to rack up a bunch of short catches that will give him a respectable total in the middle of your GPP lineups. Not every player in your GPP lineups has to go out and win the tournament for you, in fact, it is usually 3-4 players that carry your team with big performances and then the rest of your team generating 3x-4x returns on their salary. Landry is priced very softly, and considering the high percentage passes that he catches, I am not worried about the Seahawks cornerbacks taking him out of the game. Landry moves around the formation and plays all three positions at wide receiver, and beat reporters have said that Richard Sherman will not shadow Landry if he moves out of the (x) position. It doesn’t hurt that Devante Parker is doubtful for the game on Sunday, allowing Landry to command even more targets than usual. He averaged 10.4 targets per game in 2015. If you are looking for a wide receiver to tighten up your roster and reduce some variance, Landry is a great option at $6,000.
Willie Snead ($4,800)
Raiders @ Saints
Projected Team Total: 25.75 points
Footballguys IVC Projection: 9.9 (2x salary multiple)
Snead’s projections don’t inspire a lot of confidence in a game that is projected to be one of the highest scoring games on opening weekend. Brandin Cooks is the #1 receiver, but you have to give credit to Snead who continued to make plays throughout camp and didn’t let rookie (and camp darling Michael Thomas) pass him on the depth chart. If you were to look at Snead’s game log for the 2015 season, you’d find a guy who went out and consistently made plays. He caught at least five passes in seven of his fifteen starts, and gained at least 50 yards in ten of those games. Most importantly though, Snead produced at least a 4x multiple of his salary in seven games. His price was the minimum to start the year, but by the end of the year he was close to where his salary is now, at $4,400. Snead is going to see his fair share of targets in a back and forth, high scoring affair against the Raiders. I really like the idea of game-stacking this matchup, and I have included Snead in lineups with a Carr triple stack (Carr/Crabtree/Cooper). If this game lives up to its billing and breaks 50 points, those lineups have the chance to do some real damage in large GPP’s. It brings along some risk with it, as if the game doesn’t end up being a shootout, the chances of those lineups running deep is slim to none. The easiest way to build unique lineups without having to dig too deep into your player pool is through combinations of players that most owners wouldn’t think of integrating into one lineup. Snead has proven he has 25 point upside, which would put him at a 5x return, and this is one of the better games that he will have to see a lot of targets, having around 5-8% exposure makes sense.
Tight End
Jordan Reed ($6,600)
Steeler’s vs Redskins
Projected Team Total: 23.5 points
Footballguys IVC Projection: 13.6 (2x salary multiple)
Spoiler Alert: I am a huge fan of Jordan Reed, and nothing made me happier than to see him put up a 96/1072/12 season in 2015. He is without a doubt the best route runner at the tight end position, and he has a highlight tape of “crossovers” to prove it. Reed is a fluid athlete who played a lot of basketball in his youth, went to Florida as a quarterback and eventually become a tight end. In that context, you start to understand how he is able to create such sharp angles in his routes; he has the mind of a quarterback and can quickly pick up what the defense is trying to do, and then come up with a plan on how to attack it with specific routes. Last year was no fluke, Reed—as long as he can stay healthy—is here to stay. At $6,600, Reed starts out the year at a very soft price, but I wouldn’t expect it to last long. He will be in the $7000’s within the next two weeks. Reed has found his perfect partner in Kirk Cousins, as Cousins is not afraid of challenging the defense and putting the ball in a tight spot where Reed can make a play. Reed draws a favorable matchup this week against a Steelers defense that struggled in stopping opposing tight ends in 2015. Travis Kelce (5/733), Rob Gronkowski (5/94/3), Antonio Gates (9/93/2), Vernon Davis (6/67), Gary Barnidge (14/131/1 in two games) all had success against the Pittsburgh linebackers and safeties that were tasked with covering them. While Gates, Davis and Gronkowski are three of the best tight ends of this generation, none of them can match Reed’s athleticism, because he runs like a wide receiver in a tight ends body (6-3, 246lbs), only with a quarterbacks mind to go along with it. With a high total for the two teams, this game could end up being the Jordan Reed show. I also like the fact that they play on Monday Night, as you can use Reed in the flex position and build balanced lineups around him. He is the one tight end who will push my exposure over 20%.
Greg Olsen ($5,100)
Panthers @ Broncos
Projected Team Total: 22.75
Footballguys IVC Projection: 12.6 (2.4x salary multiple)
In a Super Bowl grudge match, the Panthers travel to Denver to take on the Broncos in a game where they find themselves as three point favorites. Much of that has to do with Denver starting second year quarterback Trevor Siemian, although it is not like they got great production from the quarterback position in 2015. Olsen draws a great matchup against a Denver defense that doesn’t give up much to opposing offenses, but they did have trouble stopping opposing tight ends. The Denver defense allowed either 50 yards or a touchdown nine different times to opposing tight ends in 2015. Given Olsen’s pedigree, athleticism and ability to find soft spots in zone coverage, he has a great chance of beating Denver’s defense and putting up 20+ points. He had 16 or more points in eight games last season. The Panthers will get back 2014 1st round pick, Kelvin Benjamin, although he will be on a snap count after injuring his knee and missing all of last season. Benjamin and Olsen are the Panthers two best receivers, and both cause big time mismatches in the red zone. Olsen had a mediocre game against Denver in the Super Bowl, catching four passes for 41 yards on nine targets. Carolina at this point of the season is the better team. Having exposure to Olsen in the 5% range is a solid strategy, because a big game out of him on Thursday night gives you the ability to take advantage of the late swap on DK, and (re)build lineups that either increases the ceiling or the floor of your lineup, depending on what your goals are.
Jesse James ($3,400)
Steelers @ Redskins
Projected Team Total: 26.5 points
Footballguys IVC Projection: 7.8 points (2.2x salary multiple)
The Steelers contributed quite a bit of money to make sure they had a plan at tight end, after consummate pro Heath Miller retired at the end of the 2015 season. They lured former Charger Ladarius Green to come to Pittsburgh and get going with a career that had otherwise stalled several times in San Diego. Green was supposed to be the heir apparent to future Hall of Famer, Antonio Gates, but it didn’t quite pan out that way. Green, who has no shortage of freakish athletic talent, just couldn’t put his talent together with the mental side of the game. He would show flashes of brilliance, and then drop an easy pass on the next play or miss a blocking assignment. Unfortunately for both Green and the Steelers, Green has not had the chance to move his career to the next level in Pittsburgh after a January ankle surgery has proved problematic, and a concussion suffered at the end of July has continued to give him symptoms nearly a month later. These injures landed him on the PUP list and he will miss the first six weeks of the season. In steps the marshal, Jesse James. The Steelers drafted James in the fifth round of the 2015 draft, with James not getting on the field much last season. When he did play though, he looked pretty good. He finished last season with 9 catches for 78 yards and a touchdown. James is a serious mismatch for opposing linebackers, standing 6-7 and weighing in at 261lbs. He moves very well for such a big guy, and he gives the Steelers some much needed size in what is otherwise a very undersized receiving corps. It remains to be seen whether James will fully inherit the role of Heath Miller, but it is certain that James has gained the confidence of his teammates, most importantly Ben Roethlisberger. On the opening drive of their last preseason game, James (playing exclusively with the first team) caught four of five targets for 25 yards, while adding a touchdown on a very nice throw and catch from Roethlisberger. In his first career start, James will draw a Redskins defense that has not been able to stop two tight ends in their own division, Jason Witten (11/103/1) and Zach Ertz (15/133/0). James is much more Witten than Ertz, especially when it comes to being a mismatch in the red zone. James is somewhat of a risky play given the uncertainty surrounding him playing at the NFL level, but he finds himself in the perfect situation with a quarterback who has made a living out of throwing the ball, and specifically using his tight ends in the short and intermediate passing game. His salary gives you a lot of flexibility. Dwayne Allen is another player that is drastically underpriced, but Allen is well known, and he has been talked up since DK released salaries, which could inflate his ownership percentages into the 12-15% range. James brings similar, if not a higher ceiling than Allen, especially this week in what is expected to be a high scoring matchup.
