The Best of Week 7

Photo: Imagn Images

You guys have a ton of articles. 

This statement about Footballguys is a blessing but it can feel like a curse. Our staff delivers insights that change seasons for the better yet realistically, no fantasy owner has the time to read everything we publish in a week. 

If this describes you, let me be your scout. Here are five insights from Footballguys articles that I find compelling for the weekend ahead. I'll share what should help you this week, touch on the long-term outlook, and sometimes offer a counterargument.  

This week's Best Of goes RB-Heavy. 

Miller Time? 

The weekend is upon us and Denver's defense appears accommodating, but our staff is split on Lamar Miller this week. Despite a passing offense that's in full-blown crisis mode, Miller carried the Texans to an overtime victory against the Colts. He routinely found open space around left end as he accounted for 27 touches, 178 yards, and 2 touchdowns. 

But is this a break-out game as our Game Summary suggests or is it an anomaly? 

David Dodds and Maurile Tremblay believe Miller will earn another strong week against the Broncos. Both analysts have Miller as the No.8 runner on their Week 7 cheatsheets. 

Mark Wimer and Joe Bryan concur, labeling Denver's defense a good matchup:

The Broncos' rush defense is ranked 22nd in the NFL right now, averaging 112.7 yards allowed per game, with six rushing scores handed out to date. Last week, San Diego managed 29/99/0 rushing vs. Denver; two weeks ago the Falcons' backs took Denvers' defense apart, with 32/122/1 rushing and then also six targets for 4/132/1 receiving by Tevin Coleman. From Week Four to Week Six of regular season (the last three weeks), Denver averages 20.2 fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs per game (13th-most in the NFL).

Miller is a good dual-threat back - this looks like a good matchup for him.

Weather: Mile High Stadium expects a temperature of 56 at game time, with cloudy skies and winds around 1 MPH - it should be a fine night to play some football.

Sigmund Bloom and Jeff Tefertiller disagree. Bloom rates Miller as his No.21 back on his Week 7 cheatsheet. His game day projections for Miller aren't that different from Tremblay and Dodds, but he believes 13 other backs have better games this weekend. 

Tefertiller has Miller featured in his Week 7 Overvalued column: 

Lamar Miller

• Top 200 ranking: 6
• Weekly ranking: 11
• Difference: -5

Miller and the Texans travel to Denver to play a feisty Broncos team coming off consecutive losses.  Denver will stack the line of scrimmage and make former teammate Brock Osweiler beat them through the air.  The Broncos defense will look to set the tone for the game and it starts with shutting down the running game. 

Matt Bitonti's offensive line and defensive front rankings have this as an even matchup when examining each unit in a vacuum. Bitonti ranks the Texans 14th among offensive lines and the Broncos defensive front 13th overall. 

My Advice: If you give less weight to context when examining the data, Miller is a top-10 play this weekend against a Broncos defense that is weak up the middle and forgiving to running backs. Where I have a problem with this line of thought is Denver's pass offense, which allows the fewest points to receivers and the fourth-least to quarterbacks in the league. 

I believe Brock Osweiler falls apart against constant pressure and doesn't make accurate throws against quality man coverage under these circumstances. It means I agree more with Tefertiller and Bloom than Dodds and Tremblay this week, because I believe Denver will put safety T.J. Ward in the box—one of the best run-stuffing safeties in the game and a good IDP play if you get points for tackles for loss—and still have good matchups one-on-one with the Texans' receivers. 

The one place where Miller could thrive is the receiving game because the Broncos' inside linebackers have been Fresh Fish in my Top 10 for two weeks thanks to Tevin Coleman and Hunter Henry exposing them as a liability in coverage. I'll split the difference between the opposing takes, Miller is not the No.8 RB this weekend, but I don't think he can be a solid, mid-range RB2 (13th-17th) this weekend.

Ward won't be in the box on every play and Miller will have 3-4 runs where the potential to gain 12-25 yards is strong. If he capitalizes on two of them and the Texans are wise enough to split him against a linebacker, he'll earn starter production. But for me to agree with Miller as a top-10 option, I have to believe he'll have consistent success and I think Tefertiller is correct about Denver loading up to stop the run and daring Osweiler to beat them.

Blount Force Trauma

LeGarrette Blount's 24-carry, 105-yard, 2-touchdown performance against the Texans in Week 3 was the last strong yardage output he's had. Although he has scored each of the past two games, the Patriots have used James White enough that Dodds and Tremblay have Blount as the No.17 back and No.13 back on their respective cheatsheets.  

Wimer and Bryant profile New England's matchup with Pittsburgh as a neutral matchup: 

The Dolphins ran over the Steelers last weekend with 36/222/3 rushing to their credit; up until last week the Steelers averaged 77 rushing yards allowed per game - now they average 101.2 with six rushing scores given out to date. Two weeks ago the Jets were held to 17/72/0 rushing - the Miami game looks like an outlier right now rather than the start of a trend. We'll see if Pittsburgh can pull themselves together at Heinz Field.

Blount and White have a neutral matchup here against a usually-capable defensive front that is reeling after a bad outing in Miami.

Weather: Heinz Field expects a temperature of 62 F at game time, with clear skies and winds around 7 MPH - it should be a fine day to play some pro football.

But Bloom has Blount as his No.7 runner this weekend. Is this another Bloom attempt to "Lou Holtz" the players facing his beloved Steelers? What gives? 

Note, the section quoted above that I placed in bold. Ari Ingel's Week 7 Docket offers compelling reason why the data that indicates an outlier doesn't offer the appropriate context:

• LeGarrette Blount – The Steelers have allowed the 5th most fantasy points to opposing running backs, and there is a bit of a revenge game narrative this week too. Look for Blount to have a good game against this defense that just got lit up by Jay Ajayi and that could be missing DE Cameron Heyward, ILB Ryan Shazier andVince Williams. 

It's not Ingel's data point at the beginning of his entry that matters. Wimer and Bryant do a good job pointing out that Ajayi's 204-point output against the Steelers elevated Pittsburgh's statistical generosity against the run. What Ingel does well is supply the "why"—the Steelers were missing three pivotal defenders from its lineup. 

My Advice: Heyward has not practiced all week and is already listed out. Shazier will be back but as athletic as he is, he tends to get too aggressive with angles and misses big. I think Heyward is the bigger piece of the puzzle to Blount's prospects. His absence in front of Shazier could compel the left inside linebacker to take more chances against a nimble big man with excellent short area quickness. 

I also think the context of the Steelers' schedule shows that the outlier idea could be misleading. You can find this table below within our defensive game logs on our Team Stats page:

Running Backs vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Washington and Cincinnati were not performing well on the ground earlier this year and Kansas City made multiple mistakes and was blown out early. The Jets also lost its mojo as a run unit when Nick Mangold got hurt two weeks ago—against the Steelers—and hasn't looked the same since. Centers are a pivotal part of the ground game. Look how consistent Atlanta has been since acquiring Alex Mack. 

What this tells me is that Miami's effort came against a defense that wasn't as good as its stats before it traveled to South Florida without two of its best defenders in the lineup. Add to mix that Landry Jones is now the starting quarterback, and I think New England rolls this weekend. Look for Blount to be the closer both in the red zone and during the second half after the Patriots take a significant lead. 

Late Night Larry on the Prowl against Seattle?

Seattle's renown for its tough defense. Last week, Atlanta riddled it in the second half but as I noted in Week 6's Top 10, the Seahawks pass rush became manageable for the Falcons after Jake Matthews cut Michael Bennett at the knees and two touchdowns that came off uncharacteristic mix-ups in communication between Richard Sherman and Kam Chancellor's injury replacement at safety, Kelcie McCray:

Sunday, the absence of Bennett and Kam Chancellor also hurt the defense. It also didn't help that Kyle Shanahan found ways to confounde Sherman and Chancellor's replacement multiple times. One of those was this 36-yard score to Jones.

Another was a 46-yard TD to Levine Toilolo from an unbalanced line where he was the second tight end running free due to a blown coverage. Toilolo was so open, he stumbled in disbelief halfway to the end zone. 

  

According to Wimer and Bryant, "Until last week, the Seahawks had given up just one passing score all year long, and currently [average 209 net passing yards allowed per game—fifth in the NFL]." 

What stands out most in Wimer and Bryant's Passing Matchup is Seattle allowing 33.1 fantasy points per game to receiver—fourth in the NFL. Pretty generous for a stingy defense. Kam Chancellor missed practice on Thursday, so it's likely McCray will remain a weak link in the Seahawks' lineup.

Dodds, Tremblay, and Bloom have Fitzgerald 14th, 17th, and 19th in their projections—a respectable WR2. But the ranking gives fantasy owners wiggle room to wonder if there are better matchup plays to consider, especially in two-receiver lineups.   

The answer to whether there should be wiggle room might come fittingly from Justin Howe, who profiles the "dark zone"—plays inside the opposing team's 10-yard line. He proclaims Fitzgerald, whose moniker is "Late Night Larry", the "dark zone king." 

Larry Fitzgerald

He’s the NFL’s current dark zone king. When the Cardinals approach the goal line, short throws to the future Hall of Famer are second overall on the team’s agenda. Consider that they’re only throwing in the dark zone at a middle-of-the-pack rate, yet Fitzgerald leads the league with 8 looks from inside the 10. It’s hard to get too excited about a wideout facing Seattle, who just last Sunday gave up their first dark zone touchdown pass of the year. But Fitzgerald is unlikely to see much Richard Sherman attention from the slot, so beating a lesser cornerback for a short scoring fade is very much in play.

My Advice: There is no wiggle room; start Fitzgerald. Although it's more likely Fitzgerald scores on a short throw to the flat or in the middle of the red zone than a fade, I'm right there with Howe on what he's discovered about Fitzgerald's league-leading targets in the dark zone.

Carson Palmer should be a little sharper after his Week 6 return against the Jets and while Michael Bennett's knee injury "wasn't serious," I'm skeptical that he'll be 100 percent this week. I also like what Fitzgerald did to the Seahawks in the same role last year, earning a combined 22 targets, 16 catches, 185 yards, and a touchdown. 

Seattle rarely cheats with its defensive scheme and I don't expect it to do so this weekend. This is a game where the Seahawks could win the war against the Arizona offense but give up a ton of production to Fitzgerald in the process. 

Quizzing the 49ers

Doug Martin's setback keeps Jacquizz Rodgers in the lineup against a vulnerable 49ers run defense. It has Ingel's attention:

• Jacquizz Rodgers – Rodgers owners should be rejoicing with Martin out again. The Niners do play a bit better at home, but he should see plenty of volume and they are giving up 33.5 FPG on the ground.  He ran [the ball] 30 times last game and teams are running on the Niners more than 25 times a game.

Looks like a match made in heaven. Bloom has Rodgers No.11 on his Week 7 Cheatsheet. So does Dodds. Tremblay? No.7!  But should you insert Rodgers ahead of your normal starters? That's the real question. 

Advice: I agree that Rodgers should be this strong of a matchup play. Buccaneers Head Coach Dirk Koetter purposely took the game out of Jameis Winston's hands against the Carolina Panthers two weeks ago because Winston's decision-making was killing the offense. The fact that Koetter leaned so hard on a free agent cut by the Bears underscores two huge points: 

• He believes Winston's immaturity hurt the running game and put it in bad down and distance situations. 
• He trusts Rodgers, a player he coached in Atlanta. 

Rodgers isn't a big-play threat, but he has always been a shifty player who can get what's earned and a little more. He's smart, versatile, and obviously fresh enough to take a heavy workload for a short-term stint as the starter. 

A third point worth noting is that the Buccaneers opted to start a veteran free agent with experience in Koetter's offense than rookie Peyton Barber who was promoted from the practice squad. If you're interested in Barber's prospects and wondering what that says about Barber, don't read too much into it.

Coaches are reticent to start rookies unless they prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that they can pass protect. As an undrafted free agent, Barber saw few reps as a pass protector in game situations this summer to prove anything and probably fewer in practice. The fact he made the team tells you that the Buccaneers like what they saw from him in limited time as a runner. Next year will be a bigger test for pass pro. 

Eyeballing the players Tremblay, Dodds, and Bloom have above Rodgers, here's where I agree and disagree on some of the notable players ranked ahead of or near Rodgers on their lists: 

Players I Agree Should Be Ahead of Quizz

DeMarco Murray: The Colts are vulnerable against the run and allowed Lamar Miller easy bounce-outs. Combine Murray's skills with the scheme that Tennessee uses that include the potential for big plays on the ground for Marcus Mariota, and I would keep Murray ahead of Rodgers. 

Devonta Freeman: The Chargers defense looked better last week on paper but the Broncos' line play was a mess and C.J. had multiple good runs called back on penalties—some not even pivotal to the gains. 

LeVeon Bell: I'm a little nervous about recommending him over Rodgers, because I think he's highly dependent on targets in the passing game for it to happen. But New England is vulnerable enough on the ground that Bell should have 1-2 big plays and enough catches to be within +/- 2-3 points of Rodgers.  

LeGarrette Blount: The yardage potential for Rodgers is higher. The touchdown potential for Blount is enough to swing it to the Patriots' hammer back.

Spencer Ware: His all-around game and red zone opportunities against an all too hospitable defense gives him the edge. Because the game is at home, I also think we're less likely to see the Saints jump out early on a slower track. It's possible and this is the matchup where I expect to see egg on my face for this take, but I'm sticking with it. 

Players I Disagree Should Be Ahead of Quizz:

David Johnson: Although he's the No.1 or No.2 on all their boards, I think Seattle's defense is good enough to keep Johnson under 90 yards and limit his production in the passing game. The Jets defense was missing two important starters at linebacker and they played a defensive lineman out of position to try to stop the Cardinals' back. I'd put Johnson in the bottom half of the top-12. But as you know, I'm crazy, so feel free to agree with the other three sensible characters. 

Christine Michael: Like Johnson, I'm not telling you to bench Michael outright, but the Cardinals' only bad day on the ground came against the Bills four weeks ago and it was an atrocious offensive performance for Arizona, too. I think Seattle has to throw to win this game. Michael will balance things out for the offense but I'm not expecting anything more than a mid-to-low RB2 output. 

Melvin Gordon: I like Gordon's chances for a low-end RB1 game because of Atlanta's defense but it depends more on which team dictates the game script early. If it's San Diego, Gordon will get there. If Atlanta jumps out early, it's a shoot-out and Gordon winds up a player with 10-15 touches, at most. I'm leaning that way.  

Todd Gurley: The Rams runner is getting a better push from his line, but Landon Collins of the Giants is a great box defender at safety. I expect the Giants to keep Gurley reined-in as a solid RB2 but not a high-end RB1. 

Darren Sproles Surprise?

I won't normally profile deep sleepers in this feature, but I feel compelled to do so this week. Take my gut feeling with a grain of salt on this one if you're a data-hardened player, but I had a chance to watch Sproles' college tape again on Thursday night and was struck by his talent. 

Since Sproles became a known entity in the NFL, every draft analyst I know—myself included—has compared a player to Sproles. And we've all been dead-wrong. Sproles was amazing at Kansas State. His balance, power, burst, and agility where Heisman-worthy.

Watch the moves he makes at the 39-second mark. This is Marshawn Lynch-like for his hip and leg flexibility. As my buddy, Eric Stoner of the Big Bored Blog says, "his upper and lower body operates independently of each other." 

There's also an excellent understanding of where his other foot should strike the ground while dealing with contact and that leg is in the air. It's a motor-spatial awareness that's rare among runners. What also separates Sproles from all the pretenders is that he wasn't a spread formation runner in college, but an I-back who ran power, counter, trap, and ISO from compressed line splits that match the NFL game much more than the guys often compared to him. 

I share this because after watching Sproles with a renewed sense of awe, I noticed this blurb from Ingel about Sproles in his Week 7 Docket: 

• Darren Sproles – Viable PPR flex play since the Eagles won’t be able to run or pass on the Vikings, he could actually be their only viable weapon. He’s not a great play by any means, but viable, yes.

Looking at the Vikings' game logs against running backs this year, I also see this possibility for a surprisingly good game from the Eagles' utility back. Notice that the Vikings have allowed at least 50 yards of receiving from running backs in 3 of its 5 contests and those 2 that didn't yield big receiving outputs were against backs who aren't involved a lot as receivers.

Running Backs vs. Minnesota Vikings

By far, Sproles' best game was his 6-catch, 128-yard effort against the Steelers in Week 3. Since then, he's earned 9 carries for 65 yards and 5 catches for 27 through the air.  But if you look at all of his matchups—Cleveland, Chicago, Pittsburgh, Detroit, and Washington—the only unit not as vulnerable on the ground (before its injuries) was the Steelers. It made Ryan Mathews or Wendell Smallwood bigger parts of the game plan. 

It's just a hunch, but if you're desperate or like to play longshots, Sproles is worth your attention against the Vikings.