Quarterback (Cash/GPP)
Tom Brady (vs Washington) Price: $7600
Depending on whether you choose to spend a considerable amount at quarterback, Tom Brady either represents the perfect cash game option, or, well, far from it. Regardless of your preference, it is hard to argue with his results. Brady has multiple passing touchdowns in every game he’s played, and his lowest passing total is 275 yards, and in that game he scored one of his two rushing touchdowns on the season. He is averaging nearly 30 fantasy points per game, and this week he gets a great matchup against a Washington defense that has surrendered an average of 25 points to Jameis Winston, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Sam Bradford. This has all the makings of a vintage Brady game, complete with 300+ yards passing and a baseline of three passing touchdowns. If you normally choose to reserve salary for other skill positions, this week would be a great time to experiment with a different strategy, plug in Brady, and find value elsewhere…for which there is plenty at running back, wide receiver and tight end.
Quarterback (GPP)
Tyrod Taylor (vs Miami) Price: $5850
It has been several weeks since Taylor appeared in this column, having missed two games due to injury while losing primary options in Lesean McCoy and Sammie Watkins with injuries as well. When healthy, Taylor has returned a nice multiple on his salary and made for a solid cash game and GPP option. He’s averaged roughly 21 points in five starts, and considering wo he has had to throw to, those numbers are even better than they sound. This week Taylor faces off against a Miami defense that was sleepwalking through much of the first half of the season, but has since started to play motivated under interim coach Dan Campbell. In their first meeting, Taylor had his best game of the year, scoring 27 points on 21 of 29 passing for 277 yards and three touchdowns. The Bills are at home, and considering Taylor will have Watkins and McCoy together in the lineup for only the third time all season, his totals should approach a 4x multiple (23 points) on his salary.
Eli Manning (@ Tampa Bay) Price: $6950
After struggling in weeks 6 and 7 (16 points total), Eli Manning did his best Peyton Manning impression and went off to the tune of 350 yards passing and six touchdowns. The sad part is that he was the #2 scoring quarterback for week 8, but he was also the #2 quarterback in the Giants vs Saints matchup after Drew Brees made fantasy history with 505 yards passing and seven touchdowns. While every week won’t bring that fantasy friendly of a game script, it is important to note that Manning is averaging 38 passing attempts and a little over two touchdowns per game. Odell Beckham Jr. looks to be healthier than he’s been all season and he’s consistently beating cornerbacks off the line of scrimmage as well as down the field in the deep passing game. He is a transcendent talent that can completely take over the game, and provides Manning with a ceiling that he didn’t have previously. The Giants travel to Tampa Bay this week in another advantageous matchup for Manning. The Bucs allowed Kirk Cousins and Blake Bortles to score a combined 65 fantasy points in weeks 6 and 7, with the quarterbacks totaling seven passing touchdowns between them. Odell Beckham Jr should have no problem beating the Tampa Bay secondary, and I expect a 25+ point effort from Manning.
Running Back (Cash)
Devonta Freeman (@ San Francisco) Price: $6200
Surprisingly, Freeman is not the most expensive running back this. That honor goes to the sensational rookie, Todd Gurley, who’s ripped off four consecutive 100 yard rushing game since being named the starter for the Rams. Gurley has the edge in terms of raw running ability, but Freeman remains the safer option for both cash games and GPPs, due to both the offense that he plays in, and his pass catching ability. Last week was a perfect example. Freeman rushed 21 times for 88 yards and generally had trouble against a Tampa Bay defensive front that played very well. They didn’t let him bounce much outside, but Freeman responded in the second half by moving the chains in passing situations and helped set up the game tying score for Atlanta. He finished with 16 points, which is certainly not what was expected, but you have to realize that game represented the bottom end of Freeman’s value. And that is why I spend the money on Freeman, both for his ceiling and because I know he won’t completely blow up my chances at profit if things go very wrong with the game script. Freeman and the Falcons travel to San Francisco to take on a 49ers defense that has let up multiple rushing touchdown games to Dangelo Williams and Chris Johnson, as well as four 20+ point games to opposing running backs.
Dangelo Williams (vs Oakland) Price: $4850
Williams steps back into the lead role for the Steelers after Leveon Bell was lost for the season with a knee injury in week 8. Pittsburgh was just starting to get things going with Ben Roethlisberger finally healthy again, as well as Bell and wideout Martavis Bryant all on the field for the first time this season. Bell is the most versatile back in the NFL, so it is extremely hard to replace his production across the board. Williams filled that role admirably in the first two games of the season, rushing for 204 yards and three touchdowns, while catching five passes for twenty yards. He will have his work cut out for him against a Raiders defense that has not allowed 100 yards to a running back all season, and only three rushing touchdowns. Part of that has to do with how bad their secondary has played, with opposing quarterbacks carving them up through the air. This seems to be an approach that will suit Pittsburgh just fine, but I also suspect that Williams will end up being a better play than it appears on paper. He should get numerous looks in the red zone, and will be counted on to pick up some of the slack in the passing game. Given his relatively cheap salary, Williams should deserve a long look on opportunity alone. I like him as a GPP play, but buyer beware, he could be very high owned.
Jeremy Langford (@ San Diego) $4350
With respect to injuries, week 8 was a disaster for many teams. The Bears were not immune, losing Matt Forte, the centerpiece of their offense to an apparent knee injury. Forte is officially listed as day to day, but the Bears have started to prepare for the fact that he probably won’t play on Monday against San Diego. In steps his rookie understudy, Jeremy Langford, who up until this week has been most known for his role as a touchdown vulture. Langford has what appears to be a similar skillset to Forte, having played wide receiver for part of the time he was at Michigan State. With that said, Forte is an elite pass catcher, and if last week was any indication as to Langford’s ability to fill that role, he probably won’t come close to having the impact that Forte had. The one thing he has going for him is a great matchup against a San Diego defense that has not been able to stop anyone this year. They’ve let up 100 yard games to Leveon Bell, Adrien Peterson, James Starks and Gio Bernard, but have also struggled stopping opposing running backs in the passing game. This is a volume play more than anything, and with Langford’s very attractive salary he could be the perfect Monday Night Hammer for your GPP squads. He will receive work on all three downs and the red zone, so you really can’t go wrong rostering him in a game that should approach one of the highest totals of any week 9 matchup.
Wide Receiver (Cash/GPP)
Antonio Brown (vs Oakland) Price: $6200
Antonio Brown started off the season in a way that mimicked his production from 2014, totaling 18 catches for 327 yards and two touchdowns in his first games. Then Roethlisberger was injured and Brown’s production fell off as teams double and triple teamed him. With his quarterback healthy and Leveon Bell now out for the year, Brown has stepped back into the role as the center piece of the offense. With a matchup against an extremely weak Oakland secondary, it is the perfect time to heavily invest in Brown before his salary starts to creep back up into the upper echelon of wide receivers. I see his floor as 7 catches for 100 yards and a score this week, but he has the type of matchup that could easily inflate those totals. Play him in your cash games and GPP’s with confidence, this is going to be a big week for Brown.
Wide Receiver (GPP)
Alshon Jeffrey (@ San Diego) Price: $5600
After plugging him in this column as the top PP$ play last week, Jeffrey responded with his second straight 100 yard game with a touchdown (10 catches, 116 yards, 1 touchdown). The matchup was very good last week, but it gets even better against the San Diego secondary on Monday Night. Much like Antonio Brown, Jeffrey has to step up and assume the role as the offensive leader for the Bears. Jeremy Langford can make up some of Matt Forte’s production, but Jeffrey will need to be a possession receiver and a deep threat if the Bears want to keep pace with an explosive Chargers team. Jeffrey and Brown will be the players I have the most exposure to this week, and I am expecting them to finish as the #1 and #2 wide receivers.
Amari Cooper (@Pittsburgh) Price: $5150
One of the topics of our FootballGuys FantasyAces roundtable discussion this week, was whether injuries and bye weeks influenced strategy with respect to cash game vs GPP balance and game selection. Several of my colleagues spoke about focusing on a smaller slate of games and that is something I completely agree with. By focusing on a smaller subset of games, you mitigate the risk associated with trying to predict game scripts that include players with whom we have a small sample size of data on. The two specific games mentioned were the San Diego vs Chicago and Pittsburgh vs Oakland matchups. These two games feature four of the worst passing defenses in the league, which not only makes for a much more predictable game script, but will also produce high scoring players. Amari Cooper fits the bill as a wide receiver that should be under owned in a week where many players will opt for the top tier of receivers. Pittsburgh has allowed three different receivers to total 10+ catches in a game, as well as six 90+ yard games to opposing receivers. Cooper is super talented, and has the type of speed to beat the Pittsburgh cornerbacks over the top. With Derek Carr playing a high level, Cooper is a guy I want on my GPP teams.
Steve Johnson (vs Chicago) Price: $4350
In addition to Matt Forte and Leveon Bell, Keenan Allen was another star player that saw his season end in Week 8. He was on a torrid pace and racking up fantasy points in the process as Philip Rivers go to guy in the passing game. With Allen out, the Chargers will look to Stevie Johnson and Malcom Floyd to replace some of that lost production. Floyd is best suited as a deep threat and red zone option, so Johnson will be counted on to run the same possession routes that Allen had occupied previously. The Chicago secondary has given up thirteen touchdowns to opposing receivers this year, so Johnson—who scored a touchdown in each of the first two weeks—has a great chance to add a touchdown on top of 6+ catches for 60+ yards. That would put him in the neighborhood of a 4x return, with the chance to exceed those numbers in what looks to be a high scoring matchup.
Tight End (Cash/GPP)
Antonio Gates (@ Baltimore) Price: $4100
As I mentioned with Stevie Johnson, the Chargers desperately need to replace the production that was lost to Keenan Allen’s injury. While Johnson, Floyd and Danny Woodhead are all candidates to improve their totals, Antonio Gates is the guy I am looking to as the main beneficiary. Gates has the trust of Philip Rivers, and when Rivers really needs to convert on third downs or in the red zone, I have no doubt that Gates will be his primary target. His ceiling is bolstered by the Chargers unwavering commitment to the passing game (43 attempts per game), as well as a great matchup on Monday night against the Bears. Chicago has only let up two touchdowns to opposing tight ends, but in their only matchup against an elite tight end (Jimmy Graham), they gave up 7 catches for 83 yards and a touchdown. Tight end has been a tough position to project this year, which has forced me to look more to a players ceiling, as opposed to his floor. Gates represents the best PP$ tight end play this week, and I would recommend him for both cash games and GPPs.
Team Defense (GPP/CASH)
Atlanta D/SP (vs San Francisco) $2700
I was very vocal in my support of a Todd Gurley/STL D/SP stack last week, as I explained the positive correlation between running backs and team defense. This week I would make the same suggestion for Devonta Freeman and the Atlanta defense. The 49ers have been downright terrible on offense this year, and just when you thought it could not get any worse, the coaching staff (or front office, depending on who you believe) decided to bench Colin Kaepernick. In steps the-gift-that-keeps-on-giving for fantasy defenses, Blaine Gabbert. Gabbert posted one of the ALL-TIME worst QBR’s among quarterbacks when he played for the Jaguars, and there is no reason to think that he has all of a sudden turned a corner. The Falcons are priced relatively low, which should keep them low owned in comparison to the Rams, Jets, Broncos and Patriots defenses. They should post a solid number of sacks, but the real upside comes in the number of turnovers they will generate against Gabbert. I will be surprised if the Falcons do not register an interception for every 15 passes that Gabbert is forced to throw. Play them with confidence in both cash games and GPPs.
