Quarterback (Cash)
Andy Dalton (@Buffalo) Price: $6850
This is a week where you will have to look past some of the less than ideal matchups in order to find value at quarterback. Andy Dalton’s price has been steadily rising, and with good reason. He has thrown for multiple touchdowns or 300 yards in every game he’s played this year, but more importantly Dalton has taken control of the offense and Cincinnati is now winning because of—rather than in spite of—him. The matchup against Buffalo looks to be a good one for Dalton and the Bengals offense. While the Bills managed to shut down Marcus Mariota in week 5, they had struggled mightily up until that point. In weeks 1-4, the Bills were letting up on average (304.5 yards) passing and (2.5 touchdowns) to opposing quarterbacks. With Tyrod Taylor likely to miss the game, the Cincinnati defense should provide Dalton with excellent field position and plenty of red zone opportunities.
Carson Palmer (@ Pittsburgh) Price: $6800
Much like Dalton, Carson Palmer has provided one of the better PP$ values through the first five weeks. Last week vs Detroit, Palmer was 11/14 for 161 yards, three passing touchdowns and no interceptions. The Cardinals dominated the Lions to the point that Palmer was given much of the 2nd half off to rest. Palmer has thrown thirteen touchdowns to three interceptions while averaging 263 yards passing per game. He’s also thrown multiple touchdowns in every game but one, making him a great cash game option. The matchup against Pittsburgh looks to be advantageous for Palmer and the Cardinals. The Steelers are at home, but they are on a short week after gutting out a win against the Chargers on Monday Night Football. Pittsburgh is ranked 20th in the NFL against the pass, allowing opposing quarterbacks to throw for (257 yards) on average. There are quite a few GPP choices at quarterback this week, however if you are looking for a cash game option that won’t break the bank, Palmer is your guy.
Quarterback (GPP)
Blake Bortles (@ Chicago) Price: $6400
Blake Bortles has quietly put together a solid season thus far. He’s thrown for multiple touchdowns in three of his five games while averaging 260 yards through the air. Second year wide receivers Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns have matured quickly, with each playing a prominent role in the offense. The Jaguars have struggled to find consistency in the running game which is forcing Bortles to throw an average of 37.8 times per game, while never throwing less than 33 passes in each of the first five weeks. There is some reason for caution as Bortles suffered a grade 1 shoulder sprain last week against Tampa Bay. He practiced toward the end of the week and is listed as probable for Sunday’s matchup against Houston, but just make sure to read the injury report on Sunday morning. Houston’s pass defense is ranked 10th in the NFL (220 yards per game), but they have surrendered eight passing touchdowns to only two interceptions which is the worst in the league in that category. I am of the mind that if the Jaguars offensive line can keep Bortles clean and give him time to throw, he will carve up their secondary with the opportunity for Robinson and/or Hurns to put up big games.
Tom Brady (vs Indianapolis) Price: $7400
Generally speaking, when I am building my cash game lineups, quarterback is not a position that I want to spend on as it makes building a balanced lineup that much harder. With that said, Tom Brady is an attractive option for both cash game and GPP lineups this week. We have Brady projected for roughly 25 points on 315 yards passing and at least two touchdowns, with the opportunity to surpass that if the game script follows accordingly. The Colts have been awful against the pass this year, ranking out as the 28th best unit while allowing 286 yards passing to opposing quarterbacks. Last week they let Brian Hoyer come off the bench and throw for 312 yards passing and two touchdowns (24 completions on 31 attempts). I may be in the minority, but considering that Indianapolis was the whistle blower in the Deflate-Gate scandal, I think this is a game where New England comes in and tries to completely embarrass the Colts on their home field. His salary may be expensive, but Brady is worth the money this week.
Running Back (Cash)
Arian Foster (@ Jacksonville) Price: $5500
In his first game back in action, Foster didn’t have much room to run, totaling only 41 yards on 19 carries. He still managed to score roughly 15 points though, contributing nine catches for 77 yards. When Foster is at the top of his game, he is one of only a handful of running backs who are given work on three downs, while also enjoying red zone carries. Matt Forte, Jamaal Charles and LeVeon Bell are the others who I would put in the category. They are great cash game options (when healthy), as their production comes in all facets of the offense, so it is much harder for them to get shut down. There should be no worries about Foster’s workload as Alfred Blue is out with a case of turf toe. The matchup against Jacksonville projects to be a very good one for Foster. The Jaguars were eaten alive by Doug Martin last week, allowing 122 yards rushing and two touchdowns, while also ceding another touchdown through the air to Martin. This is the type of performance I am expecting from Foster, with maybe one touchdown rushing and some more volume in the passing game.
LeVeon Bell (vs Arizona) Price: $6300
LeVeon Bell is an automatic start each week, regardless of the matchup or who is playing quarterback for the Steelers. While Bell was serving his two game suspension, Antonio Brown became the centerpiece of the offense, however that was short lived after Ben Roethlisberger injured his knee. Mike Vick stepped in, and presto-chango, Brown became nearly invisible as the Steelers had to pare down the playbook. Bell is not subject to a decline in production like this, as he is able to beat defenses even when they are stacking the box and not respecting Vick as a passer. His patience as a runner is unmatched in the game today and that was on full display last Monday night against the Chargers. With one play left inside the five yard line, Bell was somehow able to get across the goal line after it looked as though San Diego had successfully cut off all running lanes. The matchup against a tough Arizona defense is not ideal, however Bell is a must-start due to the sheer volume he is given. If Pittsburgh is going to stay close in this game, it will be due to Bell putting the offense on his shoulders.
Running Back (GPP)
Eddie Lacy (vs San Diego) Price: $4950
Lacy has been a disappointment thus far, failing to reach 100 yards rushing in any contest and only scoring one touchdown on the year. Part of that can be attributed to a nagging early season injury, but it should also be mentioned that Green Bay has been able to move the ball efficiently through the air, thus limiting the need for Lacy to see a large volume of carries. He’s averaging just a hair over four yards per carry on 12.6 carries per game. The Packers know that they will need to get Lacy more involved if they want to keep their perfect record alive, and there is no better time to do it than against a San Diego team coming off a brutal loss to Pittsburgh. Lacy gets a defense that has allowed three 100 yard rushing games, while also giving up five touchdowns rushing and two touchdowns receiving to opposing running backs. Lacy’s price has dropped far enough that the risk has become worth the reward of a big game.
Dion Lewis (@ Indianapolis) Price: $4800
I have become a big fan of Lewis and the role he is playing in the New England offense this year. Much like other players who have come through New England, Lewis did not have much to show for his NFL career, but that changed the day he joined the Patriots. He has taken over Shane Vereen’s role in the offense, operating out of the backfield on screens and in the flat, but has additionally been effective when asked to run the ball. Lewis is averaging five yards per carry with two rushing touchdowns, while also averaging six catches for sixty yards per game (one receiving touchdown). The matchup against Indy is a great one for Lewis. He will see a steady volume of work with the Pats looking to come out firing early, and has developed into one of Brady’s favorite targets in the opening half of games. The only downside is a scenario where the Pats get off to a comfortable lead in the first half and feed LeGarrette Blount in the second. Blount has been an Indy killer, scoring seven total touchdowns in his last two post season meetings against the Colts. Although there is a chance the gamescript could play out negatively for Lewis, the more reasonable scenario is one where the game stays within fourteen points and the Pats continue to feed Lewis through the passing game. He has shown a nose for the end zone, so I will be playing Lewis with confidence this week.
Wide Receiver (Cash/GPP)
Deandre Hopkins (@ Jacksonville) Price: $5700
There is no denying Hopkins raw talent, however I was initially skeptical of his upside given the revolving door that Houston currently has at quarterback. I was obviously wrong as Hopkins has broken out to the tune of 42 catches for 578 yards and three touchdowns. He is getting open at will and the Texans seem content on feeding him the ball. The return of Arian Foster is not a bad thing for Hopkins, as he will continue to see a high volume of targets, and considering Foster’s ability to wear defenses down, Hopkins should see some more open looks down the field. He is coming off three consecutive 100 yard games and there is no reason to think that he won’t get his fourth this week against a porous Jacksonville secondary. Interestingly enough, Jacksonville has only had one game where an opposing wide receiver had 100 yards receiving and that was against Miami with both Jarvis Landry and Rishard Mathews topping the century mark. This is a winnable division game for the Texans, so I fully expect them to lean on their studs, making Hopkins my #1 wide receiver play for the week, both in cash games and GPP’s.
Wide Receiver (GPP)
Brandon Marshall (vs Jacksonville) Price: $5200
When Brandon Marshall and Ryan Fitzpatrick both signed with the Jets, I made the joke that it was a match made in “eight yard out” heaven. Marshall is one of the best receivers in the short field, and Fitzpatrick is better than he is given credit for in that regard. Marshall is enjoying a tremendous start to the season having reached 100 yards receiving in three consecutive games, after starting the season with three consecutive games with a touchdown. He is averaging (7.5 catches) for (100 yards) and (.75) touchdowns per game, but his salary is still contained within the 3rd tier of wide receivers. The matchup against Washington is a plus for Marshall, as the Redskins have allowed six different receivers to score on them through the first five weeks. He may not have the cache of Julio Jones or Antonio Brown, but right now Marshall is dominating opposing cornerbacks and needs to be in your GPP lineups, especially when he is coming at a bargain and returning excellent value on his salary.
Allen Hurns (vs Houston) Price: $4700
The Jaguars have the reputation of a middling team, and due to that the salaries of both Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns have not caught up to their true production. Blake Bortles is coming along nicely, and the sheer volume of passing plays makes the Jags a team that I want to have shares in. Robinson is thought of as a big play threat, but Hurns is also pretty darn good in that department. He comes into this week’s matchup with Houston having two consecutive 100 yard games while bringing in another streak of three consecutive games with a touchdown. The Texans are strong at certain positions on defense, but weak side cornerback is not one of them. They have allowed big games to #2 receivers like Andre Johnson (six catches, 77 yards, two touchdowns), Leonard Hankerson (six catches, 103 yards, one touchdown), Mike Evans (seven catches, 101 yards, and Corey Brown (three catches, 57 yards, one touchdown). Hurns is not seeing an overwhelming number of targets (7.2 per game), but he is doing the most with them by catching 75% of the passes thrown his way while averaging (15.9) yards per catch. Get him in your lineups, Hurns is no fluke.
Jeremy Maclin (@ Minnesota) Price: $4950
The injury to Jamaal Charles was a devastating blow to an already struggling Chiefs team. The offense is run through Charles and he is nearly impossible to replace, even with a committee of running backs. If there is a fantasy silver lining, it would have to be with respect to Jeremy Maclin and Travis Kelce. After starting off the season with nine catches for 109 yards through the first two games, Maclin’s production skyrocketed over the next three. He caught eight passes for 141 yards and a touchdown against the Packers, eleven passes for 148 yards against Cincinnati and eight catches for 85 yards against the Bears in week 5. This week Maclin faces off against a Minnesota defense that has is ranked 12th in the NFL in passing yards allowed (232). If there is one area where they have struggled though, it is stopping #1 receivers from moving the chains. Keenan Allen (12 catches, 133 yards, two touchdowns), Calvin Johnson (ten catches, 83 yards, one touchdown) and Demaryius Thomas (nine catches, 93 yards) all had very good games against Minnesota, and volume wise, I see Maclin in the same category. The injury to Charles should open up quite a few more targets for Maclin, making him an excellent play this week at $4,950.
Tight End (Cash/GPP)
Antonio Gates (@ Green Bay) Price: $4350
After being suspended for the first four games of the season, Gates came on in a big way for the Chargers, catching nine passes for 92 yards and two touchdowns in his season debut on Monday Night Football. Gates is such a big part of the offense, especially in the red zone where it seems as though he is impossible to stop. His physical skills may have eroded slightly, but he is a very heady player who understands the soft spots of the defense and knows how to get open. San Diego has had no problem moving the ball on offense, and they will have to continue this trend if they want to have any shot of beating a tough Packers team. The matchup against Green Bay is a tough one for the offense, but with respect to volume, the Chargers will need to pass early and often which only means good things for Gates. A touchdown may be too much to ask for, however another eight catches for 80 yards is certainly doable in a game where I expect Philip Rivers to throw 35+ times.
Greg Olsen (@ Seattle) Price: $4950
Olsen has been a model of inconsistency this year, which is keeping true of the trend of the tight end position as a whole. He caught eight passes for 134 yards and two touchdowns in week 3, but only managed nine catches for 109 yards and no touchdowns in his other three games. This is a function of how the Carolina offense is performing without any other viable receivers to keep pressure off of Cam Newton and the Panthers rushing attack. Olsen is seeing a lot of attention in the middle of the field, which has freed up Ted Ginn Jr. on the outside to make some plays, but no defense is thinking “we have to stop Ted Ginn Jr”, so Olsen should continue to see double coverage. Where that may not be true though, is this week against a Seattle defense who rarely puts any receiver or tight end in double coverage due to their relative strength at every defensive position. We saw this last week when Tyler Eifert torched the Seattle defense to the tune of eight catches for 90 yards and two touchdowns. Cincinnati’s offense is much more balanced than Carolina’s, however the Seahawks have let up touchdowns to both Richard Rodgers and Lance Kendricks, while Jared Cook also had a nice outing against them (five catches, 85 yards). This game will be a defensive struggle which should mean more possessions for both teams. This alone should increase Olsen’s target volume, making him a sneaky play this week in GPPs.
Team Defense (GPP/CASH)
Cincinnati (@ Buffalo) $2900
Cincinnati has gotten off to a fast 5-0 start and the mentality of the team has switched from defensive minded to being an offensive juggernaut. This is no slight to the defense, but more a function of Andy Dalton’s development alongside a deep, talented group of receivers and tight ends. The defense is winning the battle of field position though, which goes a long way in taking the pressure off of your offense. The Bengals have forced eight turnovers in five games (four fumbles, four interceptions), including interceptions in four of their first five games. They are also constantly pressuring the quarterback which has resulted in at least four sacks in three different games, with a total of 15 sacks on the season. This week they travel to Buffalo in an advantageous matchup that should see backup quarterback EJ Manuel starting for the Bills. The Bills have let up 14 sacks on the season, with a whopping eight of them coming against the Patriots. Manuel has struggled with decision making since entering the league, so a Cincinnati defense that is constantly switching up their blitz packages should give him fits.
