Ace’s Aces
With the Patriots on bye in week 4, much of the player pool has been opened up, making it a key week to find sleepers and consistent high floor players that you can build your cash game and GPP lineups around.
You won’t find Antonio Brown or Julio Jones in the column this week, as I am trying to avoid redundancy from week to week. I mentioned is last week but if you missed it, here is my advice. Brown and Julio belong in your cash games and GPP lineups every week regardless of the matchup. I wanted to add some players to the mix that you can supplement with the top end receivers.
Lots to get to, let’s get started.
Quarterback (Cash)
Andy Dalton (vs. Kansas City) Price: $6400
The knock on Dalton has always been his inconsistency. He’s put up monster regular season games before, but it was always difficult to count on him as a starter due his bad games being, well, very bad. This season feels different for Dalton though. He’s thrown for eight touchdowns, and run for one more while averaging 288 passing yards per game. The most important stat is his 8:1 touchdown to interception ratio, which points to the fact that Dalton has tightened up his decision making, but is still taking shots down the field. This week he gets a weak Kansas City secondary that was absolutely shredded by Aaron Rodgers/James Jones/Randall Cobb in week 3. Outside of Rodgers, Dalton has been the most consistent quarterback thus far so I won’t hesitate to use him in both GPP’s and cash games.
Cam Newton (@Tamp Bay) Price: $6550
You can count me among the people who doubted Cam would be able to sustain consistent numbers without his top receiving option, Kelvin Benjamin. He hasn’t gotten much from Devin Funchess, but Ted Ginn Jr. has stepped up to provide a deep threat, forcing defenses to respect Newton coming over the top. This has opened up the middle of the field for Greg Olsen, giving Newton a safety valve on blitzes and a one on one mismatch with linebackers. Much of Newton’s floor is achieved through his ability to score on the ground, something that has been enhanced this year with Jonathan Stewart struggling in the red zone. It seems counterintuitive that Newton would be able to excel on the ground when there is such a lack of playmakers at the skill positions around him, but that also has to do with the defenses he is facing. Tampa Bay specifically has struggled to stop Newton in the past, and that is a trend I expect to continue this week. Play him with confidence this week in your cash games.
Quarterback (GPP)
Derrick Carr (@ Chicago) Price: $6400
Carr got off to a terrible start against a tough Cincinnati defense in week 1, managing only 61 yards passing on seven of twelve attempts. Since then he has shown why so many pundits are predicting big things for Carr in the future. He led an improbable comeback against a historically strong Baltimore defense in week 2, throwing for 351 yards and three touchdowns, and supporting big games from both Michael Crabtree and rookie Amari Cooper. He backed that up last week with a win over Cleveland, where he threw for 314 yards, two touchdowns and averaged 15 yards per completion. With the exception of guys like Cam Newton and Tyrod Taylor, I generally want my GPP quarterback to have a stack option that will separate me from the field. I am targeting Carr/Cooper this week against a weak Chicago secondary that will struggle to contain them. Chicago’s offense is having trouble moving the ball without Jay Cutler, which should give Carr plenty of red zone opportunities. A third consecutive 300 yard, multi touchdown game from Carr would put him firmly on the GPP radar, so this will be the last week you can truly distinguish yourself from the field by putting him in play. I suggest you do just that.
Tyrod Taylor (vs NY Giants) Price: $6450
Taylor was one of my first GPP suggestions in week 1, and he has continued to improve drastically since then to the point that I would now recommend him in certain scenarios for cash games. The Giants have a solid defense statistically, but what those stats don’t show is a defense that has given up a large amount of their total points in the second half (specifically the 4th quarter). In just three games, Taylor has become the center piece of the Buffalo offense and in the process transformed them from strictly a defensive team to one that can both move the ball methodically and with explosive plays. I have been most impressed with Taylor’s touch on deep throws, as he has shown the ability to stay in the pocket and make his way through progressions. Taylor has been responsible for close to 600 yards of total offense and SEVEN touchdowns (to no interceptions) over the last two games, giving him a solid floor for cash games and a high ceiling for GPP’s. He is no longer flying under the radar, but can still provide a unique lineup when stacked with tight end Charles Clay this week, a duo that I will have a nice amount of exposure to this week.
Running Back (Cash)
Latavius Murray (@ Chicago) Price: $5000
Sticking with the Raiders theme here, I see Murray as a great cash game option this week due to the matchup and the floor he has established thru the first three games. In the only game Murray has not scored a touchdown, he grabbed seven receptions for 36 yards to finish with eleven points. Ideally, you want that number closer to fifteen points for running backs, but with the passing game generating less than 75 total yards, you have to give him a pass against a tough Cincinnati defense. Murray is getting all of the touches in the red zone for Oakland, something that didn’t mean much in past years, but can result in double digit touchdowns this season. With respect to cash games, “opportunity” is just as important as skillset. Murray has opportunity in spades, especially in a matchup where I expect Oakland to move the ball with ease. I would recommend Murray for GPP’s as well this week, but a big game is also in play for Derrick Carr, so I am tempering my expectations towards the bottom of his ceiling this week.
Matt Forte (vs Oakland) Price: $5300
I was surprised to find Forte at $5300 this week, which is nearly $1000 less than Jamaal Charles. Forte’s value has undoubtedly suffered since Jay Cutler was injured. The Bears are having trouble moving the ball with defenses double-dog-daring Jimmy Clausen to throw the ball, and I do use the word “throwing” lightly. After two weeks of watching Clausen skip the ball across the ground to receivers, I am willing to bet that the Chicago coaching staff has seen enough. A game plan laden with Forte runs and screen passes is on deck this week against an aggressive (but undisciplined) Oakland defense, so I am once again doubling down on Forte. The decision can be looked at as risky, but his volume is what I am investing in. His salary dictates a return of at least 15 points for cash games, which is the bottom end of his floor currently.
Running Back (GPP)
Jamaal Charles (@ Cincinnati) Price: $6250
With Leveon Bell playing on Thursday Night, the top tier of running backs belongs to Adrian Peterson and Jamaal Charles this week. While many have made the case that Peterson is back as the running back alpha, I prefer Charles. Last week’s matchup against Green Bay proved why. Even when the Chiefs were down 21+ points, Charles was still heavily involved. In fact, his production went up as the Chiefs went to a more up-tempo pace, including three touchdown runs inside the ten yard line. Simply put, Charles is not just the centerpiece of the offense, he is the offense. He’s caught at least four passes in each of the first three games, while scoring five total touchdowns and averaging 16 carries per game. Charles will have his work cut out for him this week against Cincinnati’s smothering defense, but the tougher the matchup, the higher the volume for Charles. He is as matchup proof as any running back outside of Leveon Bell, so I will not shy away from using him this week.
Karlos Williams (vs NY Giants) Price: $4450
With LeSean McCoy already ruled out this week, many of my colleagues have predicted that Williams will be the highest owned running back this week in both cash games and GPP’s. This is for good reason. Despite being the backup running back in Buffalo, Williams has more yards and touchdowns than LeSean McCoy, and this comes on nearly half the total carries. He has passed the eye test as well, breaking long runs in each of his first three games and showing explosiveness through the hole and toughness finishing off his runs. The matchup against the Giants looks like a tough one on paper, but the game script is firmly in Williams favor. Buffalo is a seven point favorite playing at home, and with Tyrod Taylor moving the ball as efficiently as he has, Williams will get ample opportunities in the red zone. He will be highly owned, but his talent dictates that he will be a difference maker, meaning you can find ways to be unique elsewhere.
Wide Receiver (Cash/GPP)
Aaron Rodgers (@ San Francisco) $7400
Randall Cobb (@ San Francisco) Price: $5650
James Jones (@ San Francisco) Price: $4500
The Green Bay offense is running on all cylinders this year despite the loss of Jordy Nelson, and it is due in large part to both James Jones and Randall Cobb. The increase in targets for Randall Cobb was offset by worries that he would have trouble handling double teams, although I doubt if any such worries still exist. Davante Adams has had trouble staying on the field, but in many ways this has become a blessing in disguise for the Packers. It has allowed James Jones to stay involved in the flow of the passing game, making many people (including me) wonder why the Giants ever cut him after training camp. I have no doubt that Jones is much more valuable in Green Bay, than he would be anywhere else, but that shouldn’t diminish what he has accomplished so far this season. He’s caught four touchdown passes on the year on only twelve receptions, but most importantly, he’s made defenses respect the other side of the field, allowing Randall Cobb to decimate one on one coverage. Cobb also has four touchdown catches (on 20 receptions), and has given Rodgers a reliable third down target while Eddie Lacy works to get healthy.
I recommend Jones/Cobb as a tandem, or a triple stack with Rodgers, for several reasons. Rodgers is playing at such a high level that is hard to quantify where his talent ends and the receivers talent begins. With that said, I would be buying on the top receivers regardless of who they were. But when you combine his talent with the skillset and volume of red zone targets that Jones and Cobb receive, you are left with a favorable hedge.
Jones and Cobb have combined for 58% of Rodgers passing yards, 80% of his touchdown throws and 48% of his completions. I like to employ the triple stack in GPP’s, but there are questions about whether it caps upside. Cash games are strictly about high floor players, and with Rodgers/Jones/Cobb, you have three of the best right now. I suggest playing them in cash games against a 49ers team that has given the Packers defense fits over the years. This should be a much closer game than it appears to be on paper.
Wide Receiver (GPP)
Donte Moncrief (vs Jacksonville) Price: $4650
Moncrief is a guy I am going to continually go to the well with, as I believe there is a changing of the guard at receiver in Indy. There is no questioning TY Hilton’s talent, especially his ability to track the deep ball and consistently get over the top of the secondary. I do doubt whether he has the size to be a chain mover in the Indy offense, which is interesting because Marvin Harrison was undersized, and Reggie Wayne was savvier than he was physically dominant. Moncrief has continued to improve on his route running, and is a ball hawk in the red zone, making him a prime beneficiary of Indy’s propensity for attacking the intermediate passing game. He has caught touchdown passes in all three games, while recording at least four receptions in each contest. I was expecting a much bigger game last week against the Titans, but Andrew Luck struggled once again. Catching a touchdown pass did bring Moncrief up to value, establishing a very stable floor for him going forward. The Colts get a nice matchup with Jacksonville at home, giving Moncrief another crack at being a GPP difference maker like he was in week 2.
Amari Cooper (@ Chicago) Price: $5100
Cooper came into the NFL with very high expectations, and thus far, he has proven to be up to the challenge. Continuing with the Raiders theme of this week, Cooper makes for an excellent stack alongside Derrick Carr this week at Chicago. It is interesting to note that I don’t think many people have caught up to just how much the Raiders air the ball out. Carr is coming along nicely and has been given the keys to the offense, and he has not wasted time in establishing a great rapport with Cooper. Over the last two games, Cooper has combined for 15 receptions, 245 yards and one touchdown. Michael Crabtree offers a nice compliment to Cooper, good enough to take pressure off of Cooper, but not dominant enough to take away many targets. I don’t recommend using Murray/Carr/Cooper in the same lineups, as I don’t think they are dominant enough to all reach value in GPP’s, however, they are inching their way towards cash game plays and a big week against Chicago would cement that. The last two weeks offered a solid ROI on Cooper’s salary, but this week’s production could blow through those numbers. I am projecting Cooper’s floor at 6 catches, 110 yards and a touchdown.
Tight End (Cash/GPP)
Jordan Reed (vs Philadelphia) Price: $4950
Skillset and talent has never been an issue with Reed. It has always been about his health. Through three games this season, Reed has combined for 19 catches, 241 yards and one touchdown, while never dipping below six catches or sixty yards in any of his three games. That is the type of production you are looking for out of your cash game tight ends, consistent targets with the ability to gain some yards after the catch. I am most surprised by how the Redskins are using Reed on the outside, lining him up against cornerbacks and taking shots down the field. He can make tough catches, but what is holding him back from being an elite tight end is Kirk Cousins. Cousins has overthrown Reed wide open in the end zone at least four times this season. Those aren’t “maybe he could make that play”, those are walk in touchdowns for Reed if Cousins is able to put the ball where it needs to be. Reed has the most stable floor among tight ends not named Rob Gronkowski, but also has the chance to reach Greg Olsen/Travis Kelce type upside if Cousins can tighten up the accuracy on his intermediate and deep throws. Regardless, Reed is as good as it gets pricewise in cash games and a solid option to build around in GPP’s, especially considering the inconsistency of other tight ends like Eifert and Martellus Bennett.
Charles Clay (vs NY Giants) Price: $4500
Generally speaking, I don’t like to use matchup based tight ends. I find the variance is too high for players that don’t receive a consistent number of targets from week to week, regardless of how weak the defense is against the position. Clay has not received much attention so far this year and that is due in large part to the balanced attack that Buffalo is presenting this year. He gets a bump up in the rankings with Sammy Watkins and Lesean McCoy out against the Giants. Clay has 12 catches for 144 yards and two touchdowns thus far, while catching at least three passes in every game. He had a very nice catch and run against Miami that reminded many of the impact he can make after the catch. Buffalo is a seven point favorite at home, but could be in for a close game against a Giants team that could very well be 3-0 instead of 1-2. Gronkowski is on bye this week, so the entire tight end pool is open for play. Considering his salary, floor and ceiling, Clay makes for a very good play in a game where he should see 8+ targets.
Team Defense (GPP/CASH)
Carolina (vs Tampa Bay) $3000
When I am building my lineups, I have a noticeable tendency to choose my defenses right after I pick my quarterback. One of the reason is I want to see how defensive salaries affect my tiers. It is for this reason that I identify three to four mid-range defenses who have a reasonable chance of success. There is a lot of variance involved with Team Defenses and Special Teams, so I like to spread out my exposure as much as possible. This week there are several options that should be considered, including Denver at home against Minnesota, Seahawks at home against Detroit and the Cardinals at home against the Rams. You want to lean towards defenses that are at home, but this week my main play is Carolina on the road against Tampa Bay. I’ve watched a lot of tape on Jameis Winston and like his potential to be a franchise quarterback. The key word in that sentence is “potential” though, as Winston’s most glaring weakness is staring down receivers. Josh Norman clinched a win last week for Carolina with a ridiculous circus interception in the end zone. Carolina has talent at every key position on defense, which will put consistent pressure on Winston and force him to make decisions before he has had time to process them. I like Carolina to force at last three turnovers, with one going for a pick six.
