Quarterback (Cash/GPP)
Cam Newton (@ New Orleans) Price: $$7300
Cam Newton has done enough this season to prove he is an every week cash game quarterback, but that decision becomes a no brainer with the Panthers traveling to New Orleans. The Saints defense, and their secondary in particular, have been historically bad over the last month, allowing the most points to fantasy quarterbacks, wide receivers and tight ends. On Thanksgiving day, Newton had a solid game but did not have the eye popping numbers of previous weeks due to the Panthers defense scoring two early touchdowns. The Saints have allowed multiple passing touchdowns in seven straight games, which bodes well for Newton considering he has passed for multiple touchdowns in six games, and is averaging 28 points per game in those contests. Newton has a stable floor but still possesses one of the highest ceilings among quarterbacks, so feel free to deploy him in both cash games and GPP’s.
Quarterback (GPP)
Ryan Fitzpatrick (@ New York Giants) Price: $6000
It is not easy recommending Fitzpatrick for GPP play when he has no 300 yard games this year, and he only has one game with more than two touchdown throws. So what gives? Well, first off, he has a very generous salary of $6000, making it easy to work in other stud players around him. Despite having a limited ceiling, his floor has stayed stable, allowing Fitzpatrick to return a 3x multiple on his salary in six of eleven games this year. He faces off against a Giants defense that is allowing 309 net passing yards per game, and a total of 20 passing touchdowns in eleven games. The Giants pass rush that we are used to seeing is now a thing of the past, as they have generated only 12 sacks, tied for last in the NFL. Fitzpatrick might not be the sexiest pick for GPP’s, but if you have other skill position players you want to work into your lineup, he has a matchup that warrants consideration. Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker are both priced fairly as well, making a Fitzpatrick/Marshall and/or Decker stack a great addition to your squad.
Andy Dalton (@ Cleveland) Price: $6950
After enjoying about eight weeks of Dalton’s price not matching his production, it seems his salary has risen to the point where he is no longer a lock to hit cash game or GPP value. With respect to cash game and GPP value, Dalton would have to score (21 points) and (28 points), respectively. Through eleven games, Dalton has reached cash game value nine times and GPP value on four occasions. The last time Cincinnati played Cleveland (week 9), Dalton passed for 234 yards and three touchdowns (all to Tyler Eifert). Unfortunately for Dalton and company, it looks as though Eifert will not be cleared (concussion) to play on Sunday. This may hurt Dalton’s touchdown upside, but it also means he will have to look to the outside more and take advantage of the mismatch on AJ Green’s side. The Cleveland defense has given up multiple passing touchdowns in eight of eleven games, and is averaging 265 passing yards per game to go along with 23 passing touchdowns. Dalton has a great matchup, and if he has proven anything this year it is that he is capable of tearing up bad defenses and creating big games for his wide receivers and tight ends. The Dalton/A.J. Green stack is one that I will have a lot of exposure to in GPP’s this week. Play him with confidence.
Running Back (Cash)
DeAngelo Williams (vs Indianapolis) Price: $4900
Williams has been a favorite player of mine since coming out of college as the NCAA all-time leading rusher (his record has since been broken). He has found a great home in Pittsburgh and has done an admirable job filling in for Leveon Bell and keeping the Steelers season alive. Williams has an advantageous matchup with Indy this week, a team that is allowing 115 rushing yards per game (23rd in the NFL). Ben Roethlisberger is going through the NFL concussion protocol, so his status is still up in the air for Sunday. If he is unable to play, Williams should be looked at as one of the top two or three options this week, although I have him ranked #4 overall, and #1 with respect to PP$ rankings. Williams has the upside (two 30+ point games) to do some serious damage, but he’s also created a stable floor by being active in the passing game (4+ catches in three of six starts). In six games as a starter, Williams is averaging 114 total yards and a touchdown. Considering the salaries of Adrian Peterson ($6300), Devonta Freeman ($6100) and Todd Gurley ($5900), Williams looks like a surefire cash and GPP selection. He will be the player I have the most exposure to this weekend.
David Johnson (vs St. Louis) Price: $4000
David Johnson is the player I am most excited about watching this Sunday. The injuries to both Chris Johnson (out for the year) and Andre Ellington have forced him into starting duties, but in the end, this could be the best thing that happened to Arizona. Johnson has an incredible blend of speed and power, with the capability to break big plays. He has also proven to be adept in the passing game, enabling him to play on all three downs and in the red zone. Johnson has scored four rushing touchdowns on only 35 carries, but has also added another three receiving touchdowns on 19 receptions. Totaling seven touchdowns on 54 touches is pretty remarkable, and that is just a sign of things to come. The Cardinals face off against a feisty St. Louis defense that limited Carson Palmer to one touchdown pass in their first meeting (week 4), one of only three games this year where Palmer did not pass for multiple touchdowns. Despite their reputation as a tough defense (and rightly so), the Rams have allowed several big games to opposing running backs. Most notably, fellow rookies Jeremy Langford and Matt Jones destroyed the Rams defense with Langford going for 73 yards with a rushing touchdown and seven catches for 109 yards and another touchdown through the air, while Jones rushed for 123 yards and two touchdowns and three catches for 23 yards. Adrian Peterson (125 yards rushing, 1 touchdown) and Leveon Bell (62 yards rushing, one touchdown and seven catches for 73 yards receiving), also enjoyed similar success. The Rams have specifically had trouble stopping opposing running backs in the passing game, allowing six different running backs to eclipse 50 yards receiving. Many owners may take a wait and see approach with Johnson, but not me. I will have heavy exposure, and will be pairing him with DeAngelo Williams in many cases. A low salary and high upside is the perfect recipe for GPP success.
Jonathan Stewart (@ New Orleans) Price: $4900
If you were to compare the GPP value of Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams (both $4900), I would favor Williams due to him having the higher ceiling. With that said, Stewart has a place in GPP lineups. He is facing off against a New Orleans defense that has been covered extensively in this column, only for all the wrong reasons. The Saints have let up big games to Ryan Mathews (eight carries, 73 yards and a touchdown), DeMarco Murray (83 yards, one touchdown, seven catches for 37 yards), Devonta Freeman (156 total yards, two touchdowns) and Matt Jones (56 yards rushing, three catches for 131 yards and a touchdown). To put it mildly, the New Orleans defense can be crushed through both the running and passing game, and this seems like a perfect week for Carolina to lean on Stewart. He’s had seven straight games of 20+ rushing attempts, which makes up for Stewart being absent in the passing game. The one thing missing is a multiple touchdown game, and if that is going to happen for Stewart, this is the week. There are quite a few other GPP options at running back in his price range, but with a great matchup and a team that continues to feed him the ball, Stewart has a leg up on all of them but DeAngelo Williams.
Wide Receiver (Cash/GPP)
A.J. Green (@ Cleveland) Price: $5800
If you were to look at the wide receiver player pool this week, I’ll admit that AJ Green might not seem like the best play. His price ($5800) is close enough to Antonio Brown ($6200) and Julio Jones ($6250), that if you are going to spend for a wide receiver, you want one that receives a much larger target share than what Green has demonstrated in 2015. That being said, the injury to Tyler Eifert has a direct correlation on AJ Green’s production, putting him in line for a 3+ target bump in a great matchup against a weak Cleveland secondary. Green has only produced two 100+ yard receiving games on the year, however, both were monster games that gave owners an advantage in cash games and GPP’s. Green produced 11 catches for 227 yards and two touchdowns (39.7 points) against the Ravens, and 11 catches for 118 yards and a touchdown against the Steelers (23.3 points), two divisional games that went a long way in Cincinnati being atop their division. Without Eifert, Andy Dalton will need to look Green’s way. When that happens and Green receives 10+ targets, his production rises to the level of other top tier receivers. While others will look at Green and think he is too expensive for a 2nd tier receiver, I see him as being an inexpensive option among the top tier of receivers. He makes for a great cash game or GPP option this week.
Wide Receiver (GPP/Cash)
Ashlon Jeffrey (vs San Francisco) Price: $5350
For those who follow this column, Jeffrey being one of my favorite GPP receivers will come as no surprise. His talent level is on par with the best receivers in the game, and when he and Jay Cutler are both healthy, he tends to produce in that realm. Other top receivers have struggled when there is a lack of talent opposite them, but Jeffrey has had no problem producing with the likes of Marques Wilson and Marc Mariani playing second and third fiddle. He caught seven passes for 90 yards in blizzard-like conditions on Thanksgiving Day against the Packers, and nearly added a touchdown at the end of the game that would have given him his 4th 20+ point game (in only 6 games played). The Bears take on the 49ers at home in what should prove to be a great matchup for Jeffrey. The 49ers have allowed 20+ point games to Antonio Brown, Steve Smith, Odell Beckham Jr, Larry Fitzgerald and Tavon Austin, with Tyler Lockett nearly getting there both times the Seahawks played the 49ers. San Francisco has not been able to stop #1 receivers and with Jeffrey commanding a large target share against weak cornerbacks, he should absolutely join that list. At $5350, Jeffrey is my #1 PP$ wide receiver.
Allen Robinson (vs Washington) Price: $4950
The “Allen” combination of Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns have been nothing short of sensational for fantasy owners, returning consistent value for owners, week in and week out. Unfortunately, Hurns was injured last week (concussion) in a scary collision where he was strapped to a stretcher and carried off the field. Without Hurns opposite him, Robinson looks to be in line for big target bump, especially in the red zone where the two have done their most damage (Hurns seven touchdowns, Robinson eight touchdowns). Robinson has either scored a touchdown or recorded 100 yards receiving in seven straight games, and there is no reason that won’t continue against a Titans defense that he hit up for five catches and 113 yards receiving in their week 11 meeting. Last week, the Titans allowed the trio of Oakland receivers (Seth Roberts, Amari Cooper, and Michael Crabtree) to combine for 13 catches, 247 yards and three touchdowns. Robinson is going to be targeted early and often by Blake Bortles, and the extra bump in targets is all he needs to turn in a game of 100+ yards receiving and a touchdown. Robinson has an attractive salary at $4950, and if there is going to be one wide receiver who challenges Ashlon Jeffrey for the PP$ crown this week, it would be him. Play him with confidence in both cash games and GPP’s.
Tight End (Cash/GPP)
Julius Thomas (@ Tennessee) Price: $4750
At first glance, Thomas’s salary seems a bit high in comparison with other guys like Delanie Walker ($4700), Travis Kelce ($4850) and Jordan Reed ($4750). If you were to dig a little deeper through the tight end pool, you’d find that the third tier of tight ends are all priced in the $4500-$4950 range. Even Scott Chandler, of new found New England fame, is $4500, and that is without even seeing how his role changes with Rob Gronkowski out. Thomas has quietly started to ramp up his production with Jacksonville, and it is clear the salary makers at Fantasy Aces have taken notice. Over the last four weeks, Thomas has been the most heavily targeted in the NFL, although that has not necessarily translated into big numbers every week. Thomas broke out last week though, totaling nine catches for 116 yards and a touchdown, the second straight game where Thomas has scored. Much like Allen Robinson, Thomas seems like a likely beneficiary of targets in Allen Hurns absence. Considering his already heavy volume of targets, and the fact that he should receive even more this week, Thomas separates himself from the other tight ends in his price range. I can’t say there is much separation though, as Walker, Kelce and Reed are all good candidates for cash games and GPP’s. However, they should also be heavily owned, whereas Thomas is still flying under the radar. I’ll opt for the lower owned tight end with a higher target volume every time.
