With the NFL season set to begin on Thursday night FootballGuys is all set to kick off our DFS coverage, giving you every angle from every game on the schedule. In the inaugural edition of “Aces Aces”, I wanted to explain what you can expect from the column each week, as well as the process by which I come up with the plays you need to concentrate on. I will be covering both cash game and GPPs picks for quarterback, running back, wide receiver, tight end and team defense. I use a “Point per Dollar” approach to roster management which allows me to give the type of plays that will allow you to fill out your roster and maximize points, as opposed to just picking the scoring plays from each week. The data and projections used in this column are derived from FootballGuys revolutionary DFS app, The Daily Crusher. For reference, cash game picks will focus on players whose projections are stable, meaning they are much less susceptible to large swings in their performance. GPP picks will be just the opposite, concentrating on players that offer tremendous upside which is exactly what you need to win large GPP’s.
Without further ado, your week 1 Ace’s Aces.
Quarterback (Cash Games)
Ryan Tannehill ($6200 vs. Washington), Projected Points: 20.91, PP$: 70.52
Tannehill comes into his third season with high fantasy expectations, and rightfully so. Miami committed to their franchise QB by surrounding him with weapons in both free agency and the draft. Newcomers Greg Jennings and Jordan Cameron give Tannehill veteran receivers who can be depended on to move the chains and make their presence felt in the red zone. Free agent acquisition Kenny Stills and 1st round pick Devante Parker are big play receivers capable of getting behind the secondary and providing the type of spark that Miami was looking for in recently departed Mike Wallace. Tannehill’s primary weapon though, will be Jarvis Landry. After catching 84 passes for 784 yards and five touchdowns in his rookie year, he will be counted on to be the #1 receiver for Miami. Landry solidifies the Miami offense, making Tannehill a very stable option from week to week. Another thing I like about Tannehill is his mobility. Over the last two years he’s accounted for 555 yards rushing and two touchdowns, something that has allowed him to maintain consistency week to week without having to throw for 300 yards every Sunday. Tannehill has a great matchup against a Washington defense who lacks playmakers in the secondary, allowing him to spread the ball around and pick the defense apart.
Tom Brady ($6400 vs. Pittsburgh) Projected Points: 21.28, PP$: 70.76
With his “Deflate Gate” problems seemingly behind him, Brady will take the field in week 1 with a score to settle against the NFL. When Brady feels he has something to prove, it usually results in a battering of opposing defenses, and I expect this week to be no different. New England lacks a difference maker at running back, depending on a committee approach to keep defenses honest. Brady has been inside the top 10 in passing attempts for the last six consecutive seasons, so by sheer volume alone, Brady is a consistent option for cash games each week. Pittsburgh will be forced to depend on the passing game with Leveon Bell out for the first two weeks, so the game script for Thursday night’s contest is one that will be beneficial for both quarterbacks from a fantasy perspective.
Quarterback (GPP’s)
Andrew Luck ($7200 vs. Buffalo) Projected Points: 22.35, PP$: 69.38
In most years, traveling to Buffalo would be but a minor inconvenience for the league’s top quarterback. This year is different though, with Rex Ryan commanding one of the league’s top defensive units that is littered with young talent. This is why Luck is a better GPP option for week 1. Indy upgraded their offense this off-season by bringing in veterans Andre Johnson and Frank Gore, both of which should provide Luck with the type of talent he needs to be the #1 fantasy quarterback. Luck now has an elite deep threat in TY Hilton, and a dependable, physical receiver in Johnson who will take the place of savvy veteran Reggie Wayne. While the matchup isn’t good, it would be wrong to discount Luck based on just matchup. He threw for 300 yards ten times last season while adding thirteen multi touchdown games to his impressive resume. That is the type of production you need at quarterback to win GPP’s.
Matt Ryan ($6800 vs. Philadelphia) Projected Points: 20.53, PP$: 61.98
The top quarterback/wide receiver stack of week 1 is Matt Ryan/Julio Jones, so it is only appropriate that Ryan makes this list. Over the last three years, Ryan has averaged 350 yards passing and 2.6 touchdowns in week 1. The Atlanta vs Philadelphia matchup has the highest over/under (55) for week 1, and I would be surprised if it didn’t blow through that number easily. Philly runs a high octane offense that produced the highest total plays from scrimmage last season. The extra possessions will give Ryan a great chance at being the highest scoring quarterback in week 1. Atlanta has done well with adding young running backs to the roster, but they are unproven and do not look ready to carry a big workload. We’ve set Ryan’s baseline projection at 22.35 points, with a good chance of him approaching the 30 point mark. Start him in both cash games and GPP’s with confidence.
Sam Bradford ($6250 vs. Atlanta) Projected Points: 20.30, PP$: 65.93
Bradford comes into this season as one of the more intriguing options at quarterback. He’s suffered several devastating knee injuries that have stalled his career up until now, but lucky for him he’s landed in the perfect place to live up to his lofty potential as the top overall pick in the 2010 draft. Bradford ran a super up-tempo offense at Oklahoma which played to his strengths as a pocket passer. The offense he’s running in Philly is similar in tempo, and he’s surrounded by talent at the skill positions, something that was severely lacking throughout his time in St.Louis. Jordan Mathews is primed to make a big leap in his second year while rookie Nelson Agholor is a crafty route runner with enough speed to be dangerous on the outside. Throw in the best backfield in the NFL—Demarco Murray, Ryan Mathews and Darren Sproles—and Bradford has all the makings of a top 10 quarterback. All Bradford has to do is deliver the ball in the right spots and let the talent surrounding him make plays after the catch, a luxury not many quarterbacks have. With Matt Ryan moving the ball for Atlanta, this game could very well approach the 70 point mark, making Bradford an excellent option in GPP’s. In a two quarterback format like Fantasy Aces, there is merit to playing both and I will definitely be using that strategy.
Tyrod Taylor ($4500 vs Indianapolis) Projected Points: 16.93, PP$: 63.69
Of all the starting quarterbacks in the league, Taylor is by far the most likely to make fantasy owners ask “Who’s that?”. Well get used to the name, because I have a feeling you are going to hear it a lot this year. Taylor signed with Buffalo this offseason after backing up Joe Flacco for three years. He is a dual threat with enough speed to force defenses to game plan against him, which in turn will open up the field for Sammy Watkins, LeSean McCoy and Percy Harvin. Rex Ryan is a strategist, so don’t expect Taylor to throw the ball 35 times in his first start. What he will do is feed the ball to McCoy, soften up the defense with some possession throws to Watkins and then wait for the defense to over extend themselves. That is where Taylor’s big arm and wheels will make defenses pay. The best comparison is Michael Vick despite Taylor not having his elite speed or athleticism, although it is not that far off either. I wouldn’t feel confident throwing Taylor in a cash game, but he is PERFECT for GPP’s. The Colts have improved their defense but still have trouble stopping the run and rushing the passer. If given enough time, Taylor is capable of moving the ball efficiently through the air…he is not just a running quarterback. Expect something along the lines of 200 yards passing and a touchdown, as well as 50-60 yards on the ground.
Running Backs (Cash)
Matt Forte ($5600 vs Green Bay), Projected Points: 14.47, PP$: 37.39
While Forte is not listed among the top five running backs this year, I have him projected as one of the better options for cash games. With Brandon Marshall in NY, Forte becomes the Bears de-facto possession receiver. Chicago has enough talent on the outside with Ashlon Jeffrey and Martellus Bennett to keep defenses from keying on Forte. They will both command targets, but make no mistake about it, Forte is the main cog in this offense. Since entering the league in 2008, Forte has averaged 104 total yards and four receptions per game. He leaves something to be desired in the touchdown department, but his talent as a receiver more than makes up for it. Cash games are all about consistency, something Forte has in spades.
Eddie Lacy ($5250 vs Chicago), Projected Points: 17.23 PP$: 56.55
There has been a spirited debate regarding just how much Lacy stands to gain from Jordy Nelson’s season ending injury. There are several ways to look at it, but I am standing on the side of increased opportunity leads to increased fantasy points. Aaron Rodgers is still under center so it’s not like defenses can automatically stack the box against Lacy. He has proven to be more than capable in the passing game and I expect him to blow through his 2014 totals (42 receptions, 427 yards, 4 touchowns). Nelson’s injury also leaves a void in the red zone, giving Lacy the opportunity to approach 15 touchdowns. There is no doubt that Lacy will be leaned on heavily against a Bears defense that let up 112 rushing yards a game in 2014. Just like the quarterbacks in the Atlanta Vs Philadelphia game, the game script in the Chicago vs Green Bay is advantageous for both running backs. Lacy is as safe a cash game option as it gets in week 1, but I will also be rostering him in GPP’s. He’ll receive enough touches to match the upside of other elite running backs.
Running Backs (GPP’s)
DeMarco Murray ($5700 vs Atlanta) Projected Points: 14.16, PP$: 35.18
After leading the NFL in rushing and the Cowboys to an NFC East Championship, Murray was rewarded with a one way ticket to Philadelphia. The Cowboys loss was Philly’ gain though. Murray fits in well with an Eagles team that will lean on him to set the tempo and soften up opposing defenses. While he may not ever rush for 1800 yards again, Murray will have as many or more opportunities to score in the red zone. The presence of Ryan Mathews and Darren Sproles lowers Murray’s ceiling in weekly formats, however he maintains a very high floor. He may turn out to be a better cash game play from week to week, but in a high scoring game against Atlanta he represents a sneaky GPP play. Much of his upside depends on whether or not Ryan Mathews makes his presence felt in goal line situations, something we really won’t know until a couple games into the season. With that said, I am still betting on Murray to exceed the 20 point mark, while maintaining the upside to reach 30 points.
C.J. Anderson ($5300 vs Baltimore) Projected Points: 13.63, PP$: 35.05
There is a lot to like about CJ Anderson this year. As the undisputed #1 running back in Denver, he benefits from an explosive offense that will provide him with consistent red zone opportunities. After taking over the starting position in week 8, Anderson rushed for 767 yards and 8 touchdowns (5.04 YPC), while chipping in 30 receptions for 290 yards and 2 touchdowns. In the final six games of the season, Anderson led the league in rushing and was third in all-purpose yardage. These are the type of stats that suggest Anderson will be in the top tier of running backs, but he is not commanding the salary of other elite running backs. Anderson’s floor is stable, but his ceiling is what makes him such an intriguing GPP play. He scored three touchdowns in two of his eight starts and caught eight passes on two separate occasions as well. The Baltimore defense is solid but at this point their reputation exceeds their production. That reputation though is playing a big part in why I believe Anderson will not be that highly owned. Considering a high ceiling, home field advantage and a Peyton Manning led offense, Anderson is the type of play that could win you GPP’s.
Jeremy Hill ($4900 vs Oakland) Projected Points: 13.83, PP$: 39.03
If I had to bet my life on one running back scoring a touchdown this week, it would be Jeremy Hill. He has a juicy matchup against an Oakland defense that allowed close to 120 rushing yards per game in 2014. The Bengals should be able to create a lead early in the game and then lean on Hill the rest of the way. Geo Bernard is still in the picture, but it looks as though the Bengals have figured out a way to involve them both in the game plan without disrupting their rhythm and flow of the offense. In his rookie season Hill rushed for 140+ yard four times while scoring touchdowns in seven different games. He may not be flashy in the passing game, but he did catch at least one pass in 13 of 16 games last season. He has the look of a bell cow, something the Bengals desperately need to take the pressure off of Andy Dalton. With Hill projected to receive somewhere in the neighborhood of 20-25 touches, he makes for a solid cash game option. What makes him an awesome GPP play is the potential for multiple touchdowns and a relatively cheap salary to boot.
Ameer Abdullah ($3800 vs San Diego) Projected Points: 11.66, PP$: 35.78
With Joique Bell coming off of an Achilles injury, Abdullah steps into the role of the Lions de-facto #1 running back. Bell is making a strong push to be ready by week 1, but regardless of whether he is on the field, Abdullah will command somewhere in the neighborhood of 15-20 touches. At 5’9 205lbs, it has been said that Abdullah lacks the measurables to be an every down back in the NFL. I cannot argue with that point, but he did prove himself capable of handling a heavy load at Nebraska. Abdullah has a muscular compact build with impressive lower body strength, allowing him to run between the tackles and absorb hits. He plays much faster in pads and has the type of lateral quickness that has drawn comparisons to Barry Sanders. He fits in very well on the Detroit offense, stepping into the type of role that saw Reggie Bush produce 1500 total yards in 2013. With Matt Stafford throwing to Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate on the outside, Abdullah will see plenty of running lanes and one on one coverage in the passing game. San Diego ranked 26th in rushing defense last season so despite playing on the road, the matchup is a good one for the Lions running backs. Abdullah offers salary relief with a high ceiling, making him an ideal candidate to roster in your GPP’s.
Chris Ivory ($3950 vs Cleveland) Projected Points: 11.00, PP$: 30.63
It would be easy to overlook Ivory this week in favor of more established, flashier running backs. But just because it’s easy doesn’t mean it’s right, in fact it might be the biggest mistake you make this week. I have Ivory on so many teams that I’ve had to start eliminating him from future rosters due to extreme over-exposure. After leading the Jets in rushing the past two seasons, he’s continued to be impressive this preseason and looks primed to finally break through and be the work horse back that so many analysts believe he can be. To his credit, the Jets have not exactly taken the leash off of him. He’s combined for 1800 total yards and 10 touchdowns in his first two seasons in NY while averaging 4.3 yards per carry. During that time, he’s been given 20 carries in a game only three times, and all three times he’s eclipsed 100 yards. Ivory is a physical runner who punishes opposing defenses at the point of contact. He’s gets stronger as the game goes on and the Jets would be wise to feed him the ball 15-20 times per game. With Brandon Marshall and Erik Decker on the outside, the Jets will have more red zone opportunities than in years past allowing Ivory to approach double digit touchdowns. He faces off against a Browns team that was dead last in the league in 2014, letting up 2,265 yards rushing. Ivory is on my sleeper short list this year, but whether or not you have faith in going forward, you absolutely have to put him in your GPP lineups this week. Salary relief + Great Matchup = Easy points.
Wide Receivers (Cash/GPP’s)
Antonio Brown ($5900 vs New England) Projected Points: 19.40 PP$: 63.79
Antonio Brown’s 2014 season was nearly impossible to overlook , however after browsing over some of the better historical seasons in NFL history it surprised me that he wasn’t mentioned in that context. His 129 receptions ranked second all time, trailing only Marvin Harrison (141), and his 1,698 receiving yards were good for 6th all time. As good as he was in 2014, Brown can be that good—or perhaps better—this year. LeVeon Bell is out for the first two games of the season, so Brown should have no problem getting off to a fast start before he returns to take away some of his targets. Martavis Bryant is also gone for the first six games of the season, something that hurts Brown because Bryant is on his way to becoming an elite deep threat who forces defenses to pick their poison. Brown has it all. He is one of, if not the best route runner in the NFL with incredible speed and quickness to go along with it. Despite being only 5’10, 186lbs he has become dangerous in the red zone (13 TDs in ‘14) due to his ability to create space so quickly. Most importantly, he has a quarterback who can make all the throws and will be locked onto him, especially in weeks 1 and 2. He will lead the league in targets again this year making him the best wide receiver for cash games. His ceiling is what really separates him from the pack though. Brown scored 30+ points in four different games last season, and exceeded 15 points in 16 of 16 games. The Pats do not have a cornerback capable of hanging with Brown, and regardless of whether they choose to double team him or roll safety help over to his side the entire game, Brown will get his regardless. For GPP’s, he is my highest ranked receiver.
Dez Bryant ($5750 vs NY Giants) Projected Points: 17.37, PP$: 54.38
There was no questioning Bryant’s talent coming out of college, what was questioned though, was his ability to be a professional. It has been somewhat of a bumpy road up to this point, but it looks as though Bryant has figured out that to excel on the field he needs to put the work in on the days leading up to Sunday. He exceeded 85 catches, 1200 yards and 13 touchdowns for the third straight season and will be counted on to lead the Dallas offense after DeMarco Murray left for greener pastures in Philly. With each passing year Jason Witten gets a little older and slower while continuing to cede targets in Bryant’s direction. Terrance Williams is a fine #2 receiver, dangerous enough to keep defenses honest but not good enough to take targets away from Bryant. If the Cowboys can get some production out of their stable of running backs, Bryant has a chance to challenge Julio Jones and Antonio Brown for the #1 wide receiver crown. He has never exceeded 100 catches, but this is the year where he breaks that threshold. His matchup against the Giants in week 1 is as good as it will get for Bryant. Last season he shredded their secondary for 16 catches, 238 yards and 2 touchdowns in their two meetings. Brown and Jones are enticing options for GPP’s given their ceilings, but Bryant has the best matchup on paper. His lack of competition for targets makes him an elite option for cash games.
Wide Receivers (GPP’s)
Julio Jones ($5800 vs Philadelphia) Projected Points: 17.76, PP$: 54.38
Much to my chagrin as Roddy White’s #1 fan, his knees have started to give him more problems than he can handle and it is only going to get to worse as the season progresses. Atlanta would prefer to have both he and Julio Jones healthy, but Jones is talented enough to make up the difference and ascend to the ranks of a top 3 receiver. He has prototypical size at 6’2, 220lbs with the physicality, speed and athleticism to excel in every facet of the passing game. Jones 2014 numbers prove that, although his 6 touchdowns left something to be desired for a player who should have his way in the red zone. That will not be a problem this season as the Falcons really don’t have many other options. As I mentioned above, the Atlanta vs Philly matchup will produce the most total fantasy points of any game this weekend with Jones leading the way. Brown will have the most targets, Bryant has the best matchup on paper, but it is Jones who will have the game script in his favor.
Brandin Cooks ($4650 vs Arizona) Projected Points: 13.90, PP$: 41.55
Cooks was nearly two thirds of the way through a successful rookie season before going down with injury and missing the Saints last six games. He is fully healthy to start the season though, and will be Drew Brees #1 option with Jimmy Graham now in Seattle. Cooks is not going to overpower cornerbacks physically but for what he lacks in size, he more than makes up for in savvy. He is an impressive route runner with some of the best hands in the league. He is quicker than he is fast, but his ability to line up all over the field makes him a perfect fit in the Saints offensive scheme. Aside from Marques Colston who is reliable yet unspectacular at this point in his career, the Saints do not have any other proven receivers standing in the way of Cooks bid for target dominance. The matchup against Arizona is a tough one, but I also expect that to significantly lower Cooks ownership percentage. His price tag is perfect for GPP’s, where his floor is stable and there is a 50/50 chance he breaks out for a big day and exceeds 20 points.
Jordan Mathews ($4400 vs Atlanta) Projected Points: 12.97, PP$: 38.23
It wasn’t long ago that Mathews was the #3 receiver on the Eagles, and it took a strong camp for him to prove he was worthy of that. Fast forward one season, the signing of a star running back, the trade for a former #1 overall quarterback, the drafting of another receiver in the 1st round, and Mathews is the #1 receiver in Philly with nothing but a very bright future ahead of him. I have seen him go as high as the end of the second round, and as low as the end of the sixth round in drafts. Much of that uncertainty surrounds Philly’s stable of running backs as well as how well Bradford can acclimate himself in his first year with the team. Mathews is 6’3, 212lbs with strong hands, above average athleticism and a high football IQ, which allows him to line up at different positions on the field. After scoring 8 touchdowns his rookie season, he will continue to serve as the Eagles #1 red zone target and should easily eclipse double digit touchdowns. Mathews is my dark horse pick to lead the league in reception touchdowns. I’ve included several other players from the Atlanta vs Philly game, so by now you know the matchup is one that you need to have exposure to in week 1.
Markus Wheaton ($3400 vs New England) Projected Points: 10.47, PP$: 32.24
Just as Antonio Brown is an automatic GPP pick for week 1 against the Patriots, Wheaton becomes a near must play because of his cheap salary and the fact that there are too many passes for even Antonio Brown to catch by himself. Considering the massive volume that Brown saw last year, Wheaton did really well in catching at least 4 passes in nine different games. He makes the most of his targets something that should serve him well while Bell and Bryant are sidelined. The Steelers cannot lean on Dangelo Williams to carry a big load, so expect Wheaton to finish Thursday Night’s game with a line that looks like 6 catches for 90 yards and potentially a touchdown. He makes for a really cheap value play while providing quite a bit of salary relief.
Davante Adams ($4200 vs Chicago) Projected Points: 11.42, PP$: 31.05
Adams was on many a sleeper lists before Jordy Nelson got hurt this preseason, so it only makes sense for his list of potential suitors to grow. Warning though, I fully expect his ownership % to be the highest of any player in week 1. For GPP’s, this doesn’t mean you shouldn’t put him in play, it just means there is a potential reason not to. If you expect him to exceed 4x his salary—which I do—then his ownership % should not worry you in the least. After all, he is providing salary relief with a stable floor and high upside. I didn’t include Randall Cobb on this list due to the elite options with plus matchups this weekend, but I feel the need to mention him as another option. Both Cobb and Adams have great matchups against Chicago, and although I rarely suggest this is as an option, I do think there is merit to rostering both of them against a porous Chicago secondary. Whether you choose to double stack them in the same lineup or switch them up on different teams, a combined 240 yards and two touchdowns is a very likely scenario.
Mike Evans ($4950 vs Tennessee) Projected Points: 13.71, PP$: 37.97
Evans did not play at all this preseason due to a hamstring injury, and hasn’t practiced at all this week in advance of Sunday’s game against Tennessee. He is talented enough to still roster if he ends up playing week 1, especially considering how low his ownership % will be. With that said, hamstring injuries are a killer for wide receivers. Even after the injury dissipates it tends to linger for a long time and makes the player susceptible to other injuries, in addition to re-aggravation of the initial injury. Tennessee represents a plus matchup for Evans, who is as close to un-guardable as any receiver in the league. He uses his 6’6 225lb frame to muscle his way into good position and then out leap opponents in jump ball situations, a skill that will go a long to helping Tampa as their young offensive line struggles to protect Jameis Winston. If Evans is unable to go on Sunday, you can pivot to Vincent Jackson and feel good about a high volume of targets.
Tight End (Cash/GPP’s)
Rob Gronkowski ($5700 vs Pittsburgh) Projected Points: 15.96, PP$: 44.69
For all intents and purposes, Gronkowski is a wide receiver. His production makes it tough to not roster him in GPP’s because he is so much better than any other tight end. Just to illustrate that point, Gronkowski is FootballGuys highest ranked TE for week 1, while Greg Olsen and Martellus Bennett are #2 and #3. Gronkowski’s PP$ figure is nearly double Olsen and Bennett, despite the fact that PP$ is used to normalize salaries so that value can become a statistic that is tangible. He is matchup proof and makes for great plays in both cash and GPP lineups.
Martellus Bennett ($4650 vs Green Bay) Projected Points: 10.60 PP$: 24.16
If you do not intend to roster Gronkowski at tight end, the next best option is Martellus Bennett. With Brandon Marshall’s departure, Bennett inherits his role as the Bears possession receiver. Matt Forte and Alshon Jefferey will both see a large volume of targets and teams will have to respect Forte in space and Jeffrey downfield. This will open up the middle of the field for Bennett. He caught a career high 90 passes on 127 targets last year, and all signs point to him repeating that performance. He does not have Gronkowski’s floor or ceiling, but he did score at least 15 points in eight different games in 2014. The Bears will be playing from behind frequently this year which lends itself to consistent production for Bennett. Start him with confidence in both cash and GPP’s this week.
Team Defense (Cash/GPP’s)
NY Jets ($2950 vs Cleveland) Projected Points: 9.96, PP$: 33.76
The Jets open the season with the easiest matchup they will see all season. Simply put, the offense in Cleveland is a mess. They lack playmakers in both the rushing and passing game, and their offensive line is not good enough to withstand the constant blitzing that the Jets will throw at them. The matchup is good for the Jets at home that I will be surprised to see Cleveland score a touchdown. Well, I will be surprised to see them score a touchdown on offense, with the Jets quarterbacks, a pick six is always in play. Start their defense with confidence in both cash games and GPP’s this week.
