Each week I will take a look at every NFL game in an attempt to identify players that can be stacked together to maximize value in GPP play at FanDuel. I will examine the spreads and totals for each game as well as the implied totals for each team, and blend that with the likeliest script that these games will follow. In doing so, I'm attempting to find players that can pay dividends for your lineup but I will also provide a pivot within the stack to another player and give reasons as to why a pivot might make sense. You can use this information as a guide and you will have multiple options which will help you to sort through the noise while you put lineups together that can offer a degree of security.
RISK-AVERSE STACKS
Tom Brady ($9,100) + Rob Gronkowski ($8,500) = $17,600
The Patriots travel to Pittsburgh Sunday to take on the Steelers in an AFC matchup of teams going in opposite directions. The Patriots recently got quarterback Tom Brady back from suspension and the Steelers lost quarterback Ben Roethlisberger to injury last week.
The Patriots implied number is 26.5 points and they are favored by 7 points going against the Steelers pass defense which ranks No. 30 in the NFL, surrendering 12 touchdowns through the air to date. The Steelers have allowed 163 receptions total to date, which is good for third-worst in the NFL.
Patriots quarterback Tom Brady has returned from a four-week suspension but hasn’t missed a beat. He’s completed 76 percent of his throws while averaging 391 yards passing per game. Brady has thrown six touchdowns in two games, has thrown for 12 plays that have gone for longer than 20 yards and has a quarterback rating of 135.5 through two games. He’s also averaging 10.4 yards per attempt.
It’s clear that Brady is going to get his and the Steelers defense is very vulnerable against the pass. Gronkowski’s return from a hamstring injury has coincided with Brady’s return and he’s back to his typical dominant self. Gronkowski has been targeted 16 times since Brady returned, converting 12 into catches and posting back-to-back 100+ yard games.
Brady and Gronkowski look to be in line to put up very nice totals in this game.
Matt Ryan ($8,700) + Julio Jones ($9,200) = $17,900
The Falcons bring the Chargers into Atlanta in a Week 7 contest that pits two high-octane passing offenses against each other. The Falcons are favored by 6.5 points and have an implied total of 30 points at home against a very vulnerable pass defense.
Vegas likes this game as the highest scoring game of the week with a total of 53 points. The Chargers have an implied total of 23.5 points so points will be scored in this game. Both passing offenses should have plenty of opportunity here and this game could easily go over.
The Chargers have given up 167 catches to opposing receivers and are without stud cornerback Jason Verrett, which means Jones should draw lesser coverage in a shootout at home. Over the past two weeks, the Falcons have had bad matchups on the road versus Denver and Seattle, but Jones has still managed to do nice things.
Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan has started this season on fire and comes into this game still hot even after the two bad matchups on the road over the past two weeks. This week he draws a very favorable matchup and he has the chance to have a very big day at home against the Chargers. Pairing Ryan and Jones is expensive, but it a very safe move in GPP play as the game script looks juicy here.
Philip Rivers ($7,800) + Hunter Henry ($5,800) = $13,600
The Chargers travel to Atlanta on Sunday to face the Falcons in what appears to be a shootout on paper. This game has the highest total of the week and features two passing offenses that can put points up in a hurry.
The Falcons offense is clicking on all cylinders and the Chargers are going to have a very hard time stopping them on Sunday. The Chargers are a 6.5 point underdog on the road and the most likely game script calls for the Chargers offense throwing to keep pace and having to score points to stay in this game.
Henry has scored in three straight games and has become a field-stretching option for the Chargers offense. Henry has emerged as a legitimate weapon since Chargers tight end Antonio Gates was injured, and he’s been one of the better tight ends in the game averaging a whopping 12.08 yards per target over the past four weeks.
The Falcons have really struggled against tight ends in 2016. Tight ends Clive Walford, Coby Fleener, Greg Olsen and Jimmy Graham have all had big days versus the Falcons over the past five weeks, registering at least six catches. The Falcons have given up three touchdowns in those four contests to tight ends.
It all adds up to a shootout here with the Chargers behind and throwing in this game, and Rivers and Henry should partner to make for a nice pairing in GPP play.
Jameis Winston ($7,500) + Mike Evans ($8,000) = $15,500
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers travel to San Francisco in Week 6 to take on a 49ers team that has surrendered 12 touchdowns through the air in 2016. Vegas likes this game to be high scoring with a total of 47.5 points. The Buccaneers are favored by 1.5 points on the road and have an implied total of 24.5 points. Buccaneers wide receiver Vincent Jackson went on IR this week and that means even more target volume for receiver Mike Evans. Evans has been a target hog in 2016 and he’ll see more going forward.
Before the Week 6 bye, Evans was targeted 62 times through five games and had 32 catches for 449 yards and four scores. Clearly, he is the straw stirring the drink in Tampa Bay’s passing game and this week he draws a bad defense in a game that should be close and high scoring.
From a game script perspective, I see Winston targeting Evans deep down the field multiple times looking for a big play. The Tampa Bay defense isn’t very good and the 49ers have an implied total of 23 points, so we’re expecting multiple touchdowns on each side.
It all adds up as Evans has the ability to go nuts in this game via his target share, the game script and the implied totals for each team.
HIGHER RISK STACKS
Alex Smith ($7,200) + Jeremy Maclin ($6,800) = $14,000
The Chiefs bring the New Orleans Saints into Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday in what Vegas is considering a high scoring game with a total of 50 points. Both teams can move the ball with ease but Saints quarterback Drew Brees is clearly a different player on the road than he is at home.
The Chiefs have an implied total of 28.5 points and are favored by seven points at home, and they face the No. 31 ranked pass defense. Smith is always good for generating “bonus” points via his feet and it is easy to see the Chiefs exploiting the Saints secondary from a game script outlook.
The risk here is that the Chiefs get up in this game and abandon the pass to go heavy to running backs Spencer Ware and Jamaal Charles. While the Saints don’t score on the road like they do at home, they are still very potent and can make plays in the passing game.
If there is any possibility that the Saints can keep the Chiefs offense churning out passing plays, then Smith and Maclin are great value this week as all signs point to them getting to GPP value.
Colin Kaepernick ($6,500) + Torrey Smith ($5,600) = $12,100
The 49ers bring in the Tamp Bay Buccaneers to San Francisco on Sunday in what looks to be a tight game. This also has the potential to be high scoring game as Vegas has set the total at 47.5 points.
Kaepernick was named the starting quarterback last week as the 49ers traveled to Buffalo to take on the Bills. While he wasn’t lights out, completing only 13-of-29 passes, he was effective as a runner as he totaled 66 yards on eight carries. This will continue going forward as he’ll generate yards running the ball to supplement his passing totals.
While the Buccaneers haven’t allowed huge totals on defense from a receptions perspective (96 total receptions in five games), they have allowed 13.7 yards per completion which is a huge number. If there is a weakness concerning the Buccaneers defense, it’s giving up big plays down the field as only eight teams have surrendered more plays of 20+ yards.
Smith is a field stretcher and a player that doesn’t need significant volume to be productive, and Kaepernick’s ability to move his feet and extend plays should give Smith the opportunity to hit this defense over the top, given their weaknesses on defense.
Lastly, rostering these two make for great roster flexibility in GPP play.
Kirk Cousins ($7,300) + Jamison Crowder ($6,200) = $13,500
The Washington Redskins travel to Ford Field in Detroit Sunday to take on the Lions on the road. The Lions are favored by a point at home, and Vegas likes this as a high scoring game with a total of 49 points.
The Lions have an implied total of 25 points while the Redskins are at 24 points in this game. I expect this game to go over as the Lions defense can’t stop anyone and their offense is potent as quarterback Matthew Stafford is getting the ball out quickly before pressure can arrive.
We are looking at multiple touchdowns for each team here, but teams are really exploiting the Lions passing defense. The Lions will lock up Redskins receiver DeSean Jackson with cornerback Darius Slay and that leaves Crowder out of the slot against Quandre Diggs, and that’s a matchup he can exploit because of his route-running chops.
This duo is in play here as I don’t expect Redskins tight end Jordan Reed to go Sunday due to concussion issues (if he plays he is an absolute lock no-brainer). Cousins looks to Crowder a lot in the red zone and the Lions are dreadful against the pass in the red zone.
Crowder brings risk as he doesn’t have a large percentage of volume in the passing game; there is reward as Cousins should be in line for multiple touchdown passes as the Lions have allowed multiple touchdown passes each and every week. Crowder’s price makes him worth rostering, especially if Reed is out.
Cody Kessler ($6,600) + Terrelle Pryor ($7,300) = $13,900
The Browns travel to Cincinnati on Sunday and they are 9.5 point underdogs on the road. This is a total flier because of the fact that the Browns should be down early and throwing the ball all over the place Sunday.
Pryor is currently questionable with a hamstring issue, so play attention as the week plays out with this injury, but Pryor has emerged as a go-to weapon in Cleveland. If he gets cleared to play Sunday, he’s a very intriguing start because of the numbers behind the Bengals passing defense and the likely game script.
The Bengals passing defense is the No. 17 ranked passing unit, but they have yielded the third-most (14) passing touchdowns and the third-most plays of 20+ yards. They allowed three scores to Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger in Week 2, four scores to Broncos quarterback Trevor Siemian in Week 3 and three scores to Patriots quarterback Tom Brady last week. Clearly they can be had, and in no way am I comparing Kessler to Brady or Ben, but this defense is susceptible to the pass.
Pryor is the No. 1 receiver here as he’s seen 58 targets to date, with 41 coming over the past four weeks. If this game goes according to the script, Pryor is in line for a gigantic amount of targets in this game. When it’s all added up, he’s worth rostering because of the upside he offers and the duo of Kessler and Pryor give significant roster flexibility.
DEFENSIVE STACKS
Cincinnati Bengals ($5,100) + Jeremy Hill ($6,800) = $11,900
The Bengals host the Browns on Sunday, and they are favored by 9.5 points at home in a game they should dominate. It’s interesting that running back Giovani Bernard is the more productive back when the Bengals are trailing, while Hill is the back the Bengals lean on when they are up in games. That is the expectation here as the Bengals will lean on Hill to run out the clock and he’ll chew up yards and more. Also, the Bengals defense can generate pressure as they have 13 sacks on the season, and that pressure could make Browns quarterback Cody Kessler very uncomfortable Sunday.
Denver Broncos ($5,000) + C.J. Anderson ($7,200) = $12,200
The Broncos host the Houston Texans on Monday night and they are favored by 7.5 points at home. The Broncos secondary is smothering and they generate a ton of pressure, and that’s a very bad sign of things to come for Texans quarterback Brock Osweiler. Look for turnovers here and sacks in this game. I see the Broncos leading and leaning on running back C.J. Anderson toting the rock late in this game, boosting his value with garbage-time yardage in the fourth quarter.
