Each week I will take a look at every NFL game in an attempt to identify players that can be stacked together to maximize value in GPP play at FanDuel. I will examine the spreads and totals for each game as well as the implied totals for each team, and blend that with the likeliest script that these games will follow. In doing so, I'm attempting to find players that can pay dividends for your lineup but I will also provide a pivot within the stack to another player and give reasons as to why a pivot might make sense. You can use this information as a guide and you will have multiple options which will help you to sort through the noise while you put lineups together that can offer a degree of security.
RISK-AVERSE STACKS
Eli Manning ($7,700) + Sterling Shepard ($6,500) = $14,200
The Giants get Washington at home in Week 3 and the only thing anyone is talking about is the matchup between Giants receiver Odell Beckham Jr and Redskins cornerback Josh Norman. That’s entirely fair given what we saw last year, but there’s real value to be had in rostering Shepard.
Shepard draws a juicy matchup with any slot corner the Redskins will deploy to stop him as he is a fantastic route runner capable of creating separation early, in the intermediate part and at the stem of his route. Shepard has 11 catches out of the slot through two weeks and this is a matchup the Giants can exploit with Beckham Jr. and Norman squaring off in the deeper parts of the field.
The Giants have an implied total of 25.5 and are favored by 4.5 points this week, but a deeper look at the Washington offense paints an interesting picture which could manufacture a very favorable game script for points for both teams. Washington is throwing the ball just over 75 percent of their offensive plays and they’ve really struggled to run the ball.
The bottom line is that this might be a touch of a contrarian play as Beckham will draw significant interest this week. Rostering Shepard gets you a piece of the Giants’ offense, and Shepard is a player that looks in sync with Manning and clearly has his trust.
Pivot: Odell Beckham Jr ($8,900) is a very good option this week. It’s a hefty price to pay but Beckham Jr. torched Norman even with all the drama going on between the two of them.
Drew Brees ($9,000) + Willie Snead ($7,500) = $16,500
Brees at home is an almost auto-start in DFS as he’s got a certain type of magic going on there. Last year he threw 32 total touchdowns but he threw 23 at home. That trend continues as he threw four touchdowns in Week 1 at home. Last week, in a juicy matchup with the Giants on the road, he only threw one touchdown.
The real meat here is where the Saints utilize Snead, and that is out of the slot. He is a fantastic weapon because the Saints have a vertical element which clears plenty of room for Snead to work, plus he’s drawing lesser talented cornerbacks when he lines up inside. The Falcons have allowed two scores coming from the slot position through two weeks and that means good things for Snead.
Vegas likes this game as the highest scoring game of the week with a total of 53.5, and the Saints have an implied total of 28.5 so this game looks to be a high-scoring affair. The Falcons offense is no slouch and they should have enough offense to keep this a back and forth type of shootout.
Pivot: Brandin Cooks ($8,100) is an explosive player capable of scoring in a flash without needing a lot of volume to get to value. The Falcons have surrendered seven total touchdowns through two games and Cooks does have enough upside to offer even if he’ll draw Falcons cornerback Desmond Trufant.
Andrew Luck ($8,700) + Phillip Dorsett ($6,000) = $14,700
The Colts take on the Chargers at home in Week 3 with a game script that appears to be very favorable for both offenses. Vegas has the total at 52, and the Colts have an implied total of 27.5 points. Teams have been running the ball effectively on the Chargers but the passing attack is at the fore here and Dorsett takes the No. 2 role now with receiver Donte Moncrief out for multiple weeks.
Dorsett is as explosive as it gets and he’ll challenge defenses vertically, plus he can take short throws the distance because of his ability to outrun angles. This makes him a great DFS play because of the ability to generate production without needing significant volume. He’ll get more volume now which makes him even more intriguing in this matchup.
Chargers cornerback Jason Verrett is an excellent cornerback and he’ll lock up with T.Y. Hilton in this game which will push targets to Dorsett, and Dorsett is a home run hitter that can hurt defenses in a flash.
Pivot: With Moncrief out, the Colts could go to their tight ends more, and that’s where Dwayne Allen ($6,100) comes in. If you’re looking to stay in this game to catch a piece of the Colts, then rostering Allen is a smart move. This could be a nice triple-stack option too as San Diego has allowed good numbers to tight ends in 2016.
Ben Roethlisberger ($8,400) + Antonio Brown ($9,500) = $17,900
Brown might be the league’s most explosive player and he plays in an offense perfectly suited for his skillset. He is impossible to cover for long periods of time, and Roethlisberger can extend plays with his feet to allow Brown to make huge plays.
When it comes to passing yards allowed, the Eagles are currently the league’s fifth-best unit, but that’s a stat that’s going to change. The Eagles played the Browns in Week 1 and the Bears in Week 2 and this week it will be an entirely different ballgame as the Steelers should have no issues moving the ball and putting up points.
Pittsburgh has an implied total of 24.5 and is favored by three points on the road so the expectation is that they should put points on the board. Some may worry about the Eagles ability to keep pace with the Steelers offense but the Steelers have surrendered the league’s second-most yards allowed through the air and they don’t pressure the passer much with only one sack on the season.
Rostering Roethlisberger and Brown is an expensive proposition but one that could be well worth it at week's end..
HIGHER RISK STACKS
Philip Rivers ($8,000) + Travis Benjamin ($6,900) = $14,900
When Rivers and the Chargers travel to Indianapolis to take on the Colts on Sunday afternoon, they’ll bring an offense that is clicking in both phases. The Chargers are very balanced on offense but they’ll need to play at a faster pace in this game as the Chargers have surrendered the fourth most passing yards to date.
The Chargers have an implied total of 24.5 points but it is likely they’ll need to go over to stay with the Colts offense. With Chargers receiver Keenan Allen on IR, the No. 1 role falls to Benjamin and he should make plays in this game with Colts cornerback Vontae Davis out.
Benjamin saw six targets last week as Rivers’ No. 1 and converted all six into catches for 115 yards and two scores. While there is significant upside here, there is some risk as well as Rivers does like to spread the ball around to his weapons. I like the script here though and see a scenario where the offenses move the ball easily on defenses that can be had.
Matt Ryan ($8,500) + Mohamed Sanu ($6,500) = $15,000
The Falcons travel to New Orleans to take on the Saints on Monday night and this has the makings of an offensive explosion. The Falcons have an implied total of 25.5 points and will have to keep pace with the high-flying Saints offense at home.
There will be a lot of folks looking at Falcons wide receiver Julio Jones this week and he is a very good play, but there are factors that make Sanu a very intriguing play. The Saints have surrendered significant catches and yardage to secondary receivers through two weeks.
In Week 1 they gave up seven catches and 87 yards to Michael Crabtree. Last week they gave up eight catches and 117 yards to Sterling Shepard and four catches and 91 yards to Victor Cruz. There is real opportunity in this game for the Falcons and Sanu.
Also, Jones is banged up but he should play and when he’s on the field he will draw considerable attention from the Saints defensive backs. Sanu gets a great matchup this week as he draws inferior talent and he has a real chance to get to value this week in a game that lines very well for him.
Kirk Cousins ($7,200) + Jordan Reed ($7,500) = $14,700
The Washington offense has played poorly through two games this year and there certainly is risk associated with this stack.
The Washington offense is throwing the ball an outrageous 75 plus percent of the time, and they’re struggling to run the ball with any effectiveness at all. The Redskins have an implied total of 21 points and if they’re going to get to that number they’ll be throwing the ball. The Giants have stiffened against the run and Cousins will have to put the team on his back this week.
In two games against the Giants last year, Reed went for 14 catches for 198 yards but didn’t score. He stacks up very well against this defense and the risk here is one I’m willing to take as I’d imagine that this won’t be a stack most are thinking about. The ownership numbers could be relatively low here and that makes it intriguing.
Carson Palmer ($8,200) + Larry Fitzgerald ($7,600) = $15,600
This is another stack that is risky as the game script looks like it could prevent a passing explosion from the Cardinals.
The Cardinals have an implied total of 25.5 points and they are favored by 4 points as they travel to Buffalo Sunday. Palmer and company are going to score points and the Bills are giving up the league’s second biggest number of passing plays of 20+ yards down the field with 11. Cardinals head coach Bruce Arians likes to stretch the field and that’s where the Bills are the weakest.
Palmer and Fitzgerald are clicking right now and he’s being targeted heavily in the red zone. Also, the Bills really struggled with the Jets attack last week as they couldn’t handle the many different weapons the Jets threw at them.
This is definitely a contrarian viewpoint, but one that could pay dividends.
DEFENSIVE STACKS
Dallas Cowboys ($4,600) + Ezekiel Elliott ($8,100) = $12,700
The Cowboys get the Chicago Bears at home this week and it’s a “get healthy” game for the Cowboys defense as they are favored by seven points. The Bears come in with veteran backup Brian Hoyer at the helm as starting quarterback Jay Cutler is injured. Chicago has an implied total of 19 points, but that’s going to be a tough test for Hoyer. The likeliest script calls for a very heavy dose of Elliott with the Cowboys being up and running out clock late in this game.
Seattle Seahawks ($5,400) + Christine Michael ($6,900) = $12,300
The Seahawks bring the San Francisco 49ers into CenturyLink Field in Week 3. The Seahawks are favored by 10 points against a team with an implied number of 15.5 points. It’s unlikely that the 49ers do much on offense this week and the script calls for a lot of work from the Seattle running back position, and that’s where Michael comes in. Panthers running back Fozzy Whittaker lit up the 49ers for over 100 yards last week and it is simply a matter of whether Michael gets enough volume in this game. It’s a risk I’d be willing to take because of the upside.cc
