With Rob Gronkowski, it’s like deja vu all over again. Once again, Rob Gronkowski is recovering from major surgery over the offseason. Once again, Rob Gronkowski is commanding a high pick in fantasy drafts despite the risks. With Rob Gronkowski, it’s like deja vu all over again. With so much seemingly staying the same, it seems the big question facing owners is if they will repeat last year’s mistake and draft Gronkowski once again.
But Was Last Year’s ADP a Mistake?
On the surface, it seems like last year’s ADP was clearly too high. According to MFL’s 2013 ADP data, Rob Gronkowski was drafted, on average, as the 41st player (and 2nd TE) off the board. Gronkowski missed the first six games of the season, returned for seven games, then tore his ACL and missed the fantasy playoffs. He finished 15th at his position, behind players such as Delanie Walker and Brent Celek in standard scoring, or Scott Chandler and Garrett Graham in PPR. Part of the reason Gronkowski was being drafted in the 4th round was because many owners believed that he would be able to avoid the regular-season PUP list (which he did) and return to the field before week 7 (which he did not). It seems that by any rational and reasonable measure, Rob Gronkowski was a bust.
I would suggest, though, that saying drafting Rob Gronkowski was a mistake because he tore his ACL would be akin to suggesting that drafting Jamaal Charles in 2011 was a mistake because he tore his ACL, too. Given the way that Jamaal Charles has performed in his other seasons (finishing as the #4 fantasy RB in 2010, the #8 fantasy RB in 2012, and the #1 fantasy RB in 2013), it seems reasonable to assume that drafting Jamaal Charles in 2011 was a pretty good bet. He wound up tearing his ACL and getting lost for the season, but that was a random and unpredictable event, and a single unlucky break does not mean that the underlying processes were wrong. We had no no reason to expect that Jamaal Charles was likely to tear his ACL in 2011. I would also suggest that we had no reason to expect that Rob Gronkowski would tear his ACL in 2013.
This might seem like a bizarre thing to say, given the “injury prone” tag that is often slapped on Gronkowski (as well as the fact that he has backed up that tag by repeatedly suffering injuries), but there was nothing in Rob Gronkowski’s history to suggest that he was at risk for ACL tears. An article by Jenny Vrentas of MMQB suggests that, in any given year, 3% of the players in the NFL will suffer an ACL tear. Did Rob Gronkowski’s physical, contact-seeking style of play increase his risk of tearing an ACL? Probably not; according to the same article, 70-75% of ACL tears are non-contact injuries. Again, Jamaal Charles is a perfect example of this; he tore his ACL on a play where he ran out of bounds practically untouched by defenders. If anything, we should have expected Rob Gronkowski to be less likely to tear his ACL than other notable tight ends, simply because such injuries typically occur while playing, and we knew Gronkowski would likely be missing some time.
If we accept that Rob Gronkowski’s ACL injury was a fluke occurrence that could have happened to anybody, then his season looks markedly different. If Gronkowski had, instead of tearing his ACL, maintained his level of play from the first six games of the season, he would have produced 62 receptions, 933 receiving yards, and 6.7 touchdowns in 10 games. Those numbers would have just edged out Jason Witten for the #6 TE finish in standard leagues, or finished just behind Witten for the #7 TE finish in PPR leagues. But those numbers assume that Rob Gronkowski owners received 0 points from their TE position over the first 6 games of the season.
If the Gronkowski owner had had even a bad backup TE, those numbers would have been appreciably better. If he’d backed Gronkowski up with Delanie Walker, who was the #23 fantasy tight end in standard scoring over the first 6 weeks of the season, he would have finished with 82 receptions, 1118 yards, and 8.7 touchdowns over 16 games from his TE position. Those overall numbers would have passed Vernon Davis for the second best fantasy season by a tight end last year. Absent his ACL injury, Rob Gronkowski’s owner likely would have scored more points from his Tight End position as a whole than anyone else in his league except for the Jimmy Graham owner. And remember, this supposes very poor backup play; knowing the risk Gronkowski represented, many owners invested in getting a better-than-average backup at the position, and they easily could have outperformed even that baseline.
This is the amazing advantage that Rob Gronkowski provides on a per-game basis, where even 10 games is all it takes to outperform every other tight end in the NFL other than Jimmy Graham. Even though the optimistic expectations of a pre-week-6 return went unrealized, had Rob Gronkowski not suffered a random and unpredictable ACL tear, his performance on the field would have very much justified his 4th-round price tag- and then some.
What Does This Mean for 2014?
As you can see, even truncated seasons from a full-strength Rob Gronkowski are incredibly valuable fantasy resources. Further, recent reports that the New England Patriots have declined to place Rob Gronkowski on the PUP list suggest that it’s extremely likely Gronkowski will be ready to play by week 1. To quote liberally from our own inestimable Dr. Jene Bramel,
By allowing Gronkowski to take even one repetition in practice, the Patriots severely limited their options. If Gronkowski has any minor setbacks or doesn't look ready over the next month after all, New England's only choices are to put Gronkowski on the injured reserve list with a designation to return or carry him on the active 53 man roster and deactivate him on gamedays until he's ready.
This decision tells us two very important things. First, Gronkowski is already in good enough physical condition to practice in pads. If he weren't, he'd likely have been put on the Active / NFI list while he conditioned and rehabbed on the sideline. Second, this decision says the medical staff believes Gronkowski will be ready for Week 1. And when you compare this year's quiet, business-like report to last year's weekly circus, it's fair to say Gronkowski believes it, too.
This doesn't mean that Gronkowski is a lock to be in top form during camp or early in the regular season. But full clearance for contact just six months after an ACL/MCL tear is impressive and reassuring.
If ten games of full-strength Gronkowski were so valuable last year, how valuable would a potential 16 games of full-strength Gronkowski be? Perhaps that question is best answered with a comparison. Over the last three years, Rob Gronkowski has averaged the second-highest point per game total among receivers. Please note that I did not say “among tight ends”; Rob Gronkowski has averaged more points per game than any player who makes his living catching passes- whether as a wide receiver or a tight end- other than Calvin Johnson himself. That is true regardless of scoring system. He has outscored Jimmy Graham by about 1.75 points per game in standard scoring and by about 1.42 points per game in PPR leagues. Jimmy Graham, it should be noted, currently carries an average draft position of 7th overall according to recent Footballguys ADP Data. That’s the potential upside to Rob Gronkowski- a player capable of outscoring a top-10 overall draft pick by a point and a half per game.
Beyond his fantasy prowess, a full-strength Rob Gronkowski might just have a bigger impact on his offense than any non-quarterback other than Jamaal Charles. In the seven games Rob Gronkowski played, New England’s offense averaged 32 points. In the nine games Rob Gronkowski missed, New England’s offense averaged just 24.4 points. Pro Football Focus graded Rob Gronkowski as the second-most-valuable receiving tight end last year despite him playing for less than half the season. When healthy, Gronkowski is a historically dominant offensive force.
Sharp-eyed readers, however, will notice the qualifier I keep using. A “full-strength” Gronkowski is great. “When healthy”, Gronkowski is dominant. The real problem with Rob Gronkowski in 2014 is not the question of how many games he’ll miss, it’s the question of how effective he’ll be in the games in which he plays. It’s true that in 2012, Adrian Peterson showed us that it is possible for a player to return from an ACL tear in a short timeframe without losing any dominance. It’s also true that players like Wes Welker, Robert Griffin III, Rashard Mendenhall, and Heath Miller have shown us that sometimes players who return from ACL tears in a short timeframe do, in fact, lose a little bit of their dominance. I would rather have Gronkowski playing in 75% of his games at 100% of his peak effectiveness than Gronkowski playing in 100% of his games at 75% of his peak effectiveness. The former is a the difference-making talent you’re hoping for when you draft him in the second round. The latter is a pale shadow who would find that loft ADP awfully difficult to justify. As a result, news that Rob Gronkowski will likely play in week 1 is great, but what I’m really waiting to hear is news that Rob Gronkowski looks like his normal self. Until we see that happening, there will always be some extra risk surrounding Gronkowski in 2014.
Positives
- No player in the league has provided a larger positional advantage over the last three years than Rob Gronkowski
- With 43 touchdowns in 50 career games (including 33 touchdowns in his last 34), Gronkowski is by far the deadliest red-zone weapon in the NFL
Negatives
- Including playoffs, Gronkowski has played in 19 games and missed 17 over the past two seasons, dealing with a litany of different injuries that required a truly terrifying number of surgeries
- Recoveries from ACL injuries, especially over an abbreviated time frame, are an uncertain thing; many players return at less than 100%, and historically the injury has been said to require two years to get back to full strength
Final Thoughts
Rob Gronkowski is the ultimate risk/reward pick, capable of putting up numbers that would make a top-5 receiver blush while maintaining tight end eligibility, but also spending a lot of time out of the lineup with various ailments. Many of the other tight ends, however, carry just as much injury risk; Jimmy Graham has appeared on the injury report with ankle, back, wrist, finger, foot, and elbow injuries in his short career, though he has missed less time. Graham’s 2013 season was held back by a torn Plantar Fascia. Julius Thomas has actually missed more games in his career than Rob Gronkowski despite spending one fewer season in the league. Jordan Cameron has missed time late in each of the last two seasons with concussions. Relative to his peers, Gronkowski’s injury history is dramatically overrated, and the fact that he has repeatedly demonstrated that he is a quick healer is underrated. Provided early reports suggest that Gronkowski is back to full speed, all signs point towards him being a true difference-making fantasy player in 2014.
Rob Gronkowski’s Projections
| G | Rec | YD | TD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Dodds | 15 | 77 | 1093 | 12 |
| Bob Henry | 12 | 60 | 880 | 10 |
| Jason Wood | 15 | 75 | 950 | 10 |
| Maurile Tremblay | 16 | 64 | 808 | 8 |
| Adam Harstad | 16 | 88 | 1250 | 12 |
Other Viewpoints
Chris Wesseling of NFL ATL discusses Gronkowski's dominance:
It's no coincidence that Brady's season turned around once Gronkowski returned to the lineup. As we pointed out in June, Brady was essentially Aaron Rodgers when Gronk was on the field last season, and Andy Dalton when the All-Pro tight end was sidelined.
Among non-quarterbacks on offense, Gronkowski is the single biggest difference-maker in the NFL. Since entering the league in 2010, he leads the league in red-zone touchdowns, quarterback-to-receiver completion percentage and yards after catch.
Players of Gronk's size (6-foot-6, 265) aren't supposed to be able to bend over in mid-stride and pluck a fastball off the carpet like he did on this spectacular 23-yard touchdown grab last week.
The Boston Globe's estimable Bob Ryan opined Sunday that no tight end in history -- not Tony Gonzalez, Shannon Sharpe or John Mackey --could match Gronkowski at this point in his career.
He's not lying.
David Pratt of Pro Football Focus Fantasy presents the more pessimistic case against Gronkowski:
To summarize this data quickly and bluntly, Gronkowski has a significantly higher risk for future injuries than most NFL players.
Now, lets look at what level of future production we should expect from Gronkowski after looking at the evidence.
- A study showed that a cohort of NFL players who underwent a microscopic lumbar discectomy, and then returned to play, did not have a significant decline from their pre-injury levels of production. 7
- There is no significant evidence that would indicate that Gronkowski’s previous hamstring strain, hip injury, high ankle sprain, or forearm fracture will impede his on-field production—besides the aforementioned increased chance having a re-injury.
- On the other hand, there is evidence that shows players returning from an ACL repair have significant declines in production. A study found that NFL running backs, tight ends, and wide receivers that are returning to play following an ACL repair commonly see a decline in production (total yards and touchdowns) of about one-third.8
This would also be a good time to point out that Adrian Peterson’s production after his ACL repair is an extreme outlier from the norm. It should be considered a rare exception, and be no indication of Gronkowski’s future production.
