Welcome to the 2016 version of The Daily Grind, a look at Daily Fantasy Football from several vantage points. Together we will look at many different topics this season – from managing expectations and bankroll to what Footballguys has in store for 2016 and how to best use what this site has to offer to maximize both your enjoyment and your bankroll by Super Bowl LI. So let’s jump right in with some thoughts on both expectations for playing this year and also a first take at a guided tour for Footballguys’ DFS coverage this season:
Week 17
This is the final week of the NFL regular season, which can be tricky to say the least. A lot of teams are ready to pack it all in and head home for the offseason, but if you can find the players who are still motivated (or on motivated teams) it can be a successful week. Just be sure to read up on the playoff possibilities and who is likely to be chasing numbers, and you are on your way to closing out the NFL regular season on a high note. A word of advice if you are looking to just play contests with meaningful games, consider the “afternoon only” or “late” slate for the NFL, as most of the games in the first set of contests (1PM Eastern) do not have many playoff implications. All but one of the last six contests for Week 17 have a playoff impact. Good luck!
Playoffs
With the NFL regular season coming to a close (and this column as well), our attention turns towards the NFL playoff season. Just because the regular season is done, that does not mean DFS ends for the NFL. Contests will continue until the NFC and AFC Championship weekend, which means there are three more weekends to play DFS. Just be careful as the biggest slate will contain just four games each week, and the best of the best teams are squaring off against each other. Finding value (barring an injury) is not going to be easy. Just be sure that your lineup is self-consistent with whatever game scripts you plan to use, and be smart about your bankroll. One lineup mistake can be absorbed on bigger slates with 12-16 games, but with just four contests in the playoffs, one misstep can be the difference for a big payday and negative impact to your balance sheet.
Personally, I believe that shorter slates can be profitable, but every roster decision that you make with your lineup is critical and has to be analyzed from top to bottom several times. Cash games are extremely tricky as you have to play all the majority-owned players that you can fit in, because missing one chalk play that hits will torpedo your lineups. For this reason, GPPs are the preferred method of play in the postseason, and there you are only working on building lineups that fit a game script that you can envision for the games that weekend. Do you think Green Bay scores a ton? What about Atlanta? Will Houston get shut out? Build your lineups to tell that story, then think of a new story and build another. Repeat until you have enough rosters to cover what you think will likely happen, and go enjoy the games.
DFS Resolutions
Now is the time of year that everyone starts thinking of what they will want to achieve in the next 12 months. That’s a great idea, but remember that the best goals are both written down (so you can repeatedly re-read and revisit them) and also “SMART” goals. Here “SMART” means specific, measurable, actionable, realistic and time-sensitive – but don’t worry too much about all that. Just know that the best goals are the ones you can measure. For example, rather than saying “I want to become a better DFS player,” consider going with “I want to read 2-4 good books or articles on becoming a better DFS player in the next three months.” That’s a much better option. Instead of “I want to earn more DFS money,”, go with “I want to double my bankroll between NFL Week 1 and Week 16 in 2017.” That’s much more realistic and measurable, and helps you towards achieving the goal.
Try a New Sport
With the NFL season winding down (yes, there are still DFS contests in the playoffs – but be careful, as I mentioned earlier), think about another sport you may want to try this offseason. Both NBA and NHL are in full swing, and both are options on nearly a daily basis for true daily fantasy contests. Each sport has a learning curve, so budget your play accordingly, but it is the perfect time to learn either one or both of these winter sports. Just be sure to understand that there are challenges to learning the NBA if you are solely involved in the NFL. For example, there are no inactives lists or injury reports, so you could be waiting on injury news right up until lineup locks. That can be a challenge for many DFS players who are not available to check the last minute news. That caveat aside, both the NBA and NHL are great options for expanding your DFS horizons and offer more sports entertainment and fun until the NFL draft rolls around. And of course, remember that Footballguys now offers Basketballguys.com for daily DFS basketball information. Check out the NBA IVCs and the projections each day to build successful lineups.
Enjoy the Holidays
This is the holiday season, and we’re between Christmas and New Year’s. Football is all over the television, both pro and college, and there are plenty of other sports each day with so many of us taking time off. Just remember to take some time with your family and friends aside from all the sports to remain balanced in your life. Work hard, play hard, enjoy everything you can. Best wishes in 2017.
Thank You
I just wanted to close out this week’s column – the last for 2016 – with a “Thank you” for reading. I hope that The Daily Grind and many other features here at Footballguys helped you to either a profitable DFS season or an entertaining one – and hopefully both. Time is a valuable commodity, and I appreciate the time spent reading both this column and the rest of what we do here. If you have any additional moments, please let Footballguys know what you liked, didn’t like, and what we can do to improve and get even better next year.
Happy New Year!
Since I mentioned picking up a new sport above, I decided to reprise this section one last time:
A DFS FOR ALL SEASONS
I first wrote about playing DFS in other sports last year, but given that it is late October again and we have not just one, or two, or three but four major sports now in play, I think it is worth noting once again that DFS is not just for football. DFS basketball continues to grow, and it is pushing for the top spot in daily sports. If football is the #1 sport in the U.S., why is it basketball is vying for the top spot in DFS? The key is the first word in that acronym – DAILY. Basketball, along with hockey and, prior to the playoffs, baseball are all truly daily sports. Want to play on a Tuesday, Wednesday or Friday? You certainly can with these other major sports. That’s the big difference. If you enjoy the puzzle of putting together winning lineups in a salary cap format, I strongly suggest that you try the NBA, and take a long, hard look at our debut of Hoopsguys.com where we are branching out to DFS basketball coverage. Slates run every day of the week until almost June, so jump right in and enjoy all the fun and action!
A GUIDED TOUR TO FOOTBALLGUYS’ DFS 2016 COVERAGE (FINAL EDITION)
Over the past three weeks I have provided you a guided tour to all the DFS coverage Footballguys is providing this season. Here at Footballguys, we have dedicated a good amount of the staff and resources to give you the best DFS content possible, and the intent of this tour was to highlight as much of the content and how to use it as possible. As a courtesy to you the reader each week, I will leave this placeholder so you can find the tour in the future and can find the articles and tools you use the most. Just remember to check the week number in the link, as it will take you to Week 3 content.
Here is the final version of the tour:
Good luck to you in all of your contests!
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.
